Advanced Stats Poo-Pooing on Tannehill

"Rock Sexton wrote:

OK, so explain to me what happened after we put up 38 on Oakland up in England last year. Where exactly did that get us?

Level of competition DOES matter schematically.

Also without Philbin btw :lol: I dont want to say it makes the point moot, but he did come back and muddy things back up after that.

He's getting crapped on for being Tom Brady basically

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"lmeister3 wrote:

He's getting crapped on for being Tom Brady basically

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If he was Tom Brady, we'd have a lot more AFC East Championships in the last 3-4 years.

"Rock Sexton wrote:

If he was Tom Brady, we'd have a lot more AFC East Championships in the last 3-4 years.

The queen of dink and dunk

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"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

True, but at the same time you take what you are given. I've never seen a QB downgraded for finding the best match-ups and his open receivers. If Tom Brady see's an uncovered receiver and throws a screen for 80 yards its WOW WHAT A VETERAN, WHAT KNOWLEDGE WHAT PREPARATION!

It's not necessarily a downgrade, but it's putting the stats in perspective. When you see this statline:

94.7 percent completion rate, 14.8 yards per throw, and a perfect NFL passer rating of 158.3.

You are thinking, holy chit Batman!

But this isn't Aaron or Big Ben cutting up the field with throws all over the field. It was excellent short range throws (save for the Parker one) that produced excellent results due to the fantastic rac by the players. The long touchdowns were dump offs and the Texans missing the universe. Other than the parker throw, his longest completion was 14 yards from the LOS. That's important to know. When a good defense decides to sit on the short passes, and actually tackle well, is Tanny going to have success? Out of 19 completions, 10 were at the LOS or behind it. Only 5 traveled more than 10 yards.

Recall Alex Smith in 2013 with Jamaal Charles scoring 5 TDs. 4 of those TDs were dumpoffs from Alex Smith (who threw 5 TDs). Alex Smith went 17 of 20, 287 yards, 14.4 ypa, 5 TDs, 158.3 rating. Look similar? Eerily close in numbers.

So, the question is, is this performance sustainable?

It was a fantastic gameplan and execution. Out of this world. Nobody disputes that. But when you try to isolate, is short pass long catch and run more due to the throw, or to the blocking downfield and ability of the catcher? Can you sustain this gameplan and have success moving forward. That is the question.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

Also without Philbin btw :lol: I dont want to say it makes the point moot, but he did come back and muddy things back up after that.

OK. The Cardinals lit up the first teams they played:

31-19 vs. the Saints
48-23 vs. the Bears
47-7 vs. the 49'ers
42-17 vs. the Lions

Then they proceeded to play much closer games:

22-24 loss to the Rams
13-25 loss to the Steelers
26-18 win by the skin of their teeth vs. the Ravens

Again, it's all about how you match up with teams, especially when it comes to intra-division rivals and better competition. Texans and Titans are a combined 2-10 with a pts for of 273 vs. 338 pts against.

"lmeister3 wrote:

The queen of dink and dunk

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He can hit the intermediate routes just fine. You're speaking about someone who's relatively anomalous when it comes to "how" you can win in the NFL.

Pathetic, man.

"Rock Sexton wrote:

But see, we know that's not the case. We know good teams will take our short passing game away.

I loved every second of the thrashings we doled out in the last two weeks, but let's be a bit practical about "who" we thrashed and the implications moving forward.

It's imperative that the running game remain strong for offensive consistency.

Only the #1 passing defense in the NFL going into the game (Tennessee). That's not only practical, but true.

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

Only the #1 passing defense in the NFL going into the game (Tennessee). That's not only practical, but true.

Ah Mr. Team Sport.

Now we're just going to fixate on the passing defense? Must be a fluke both teams are a combined 2-10 on the year. They're definitely two very undervalued ball clubs.

"Rock Sexton wrote:

Ah Mr. Team Sport.

Now we're just going to fixate on the passing defense? Must be a fluke both teams are a combined 2-10 on the year. They're definitely two very undervalued ball clubs.

I.E....bla bla bla....durrr durrr durrr...I got nothing.

I know people are constantly looking to tear this guy down and he certainly needs to improve his game but come on man. Dude completed 25 passes in a row. I don't care how short they were, that's never happened.

Furthermore, with the Texans pass rush that is a good game plan and we throttled them in the process. I'm one of those people who really could care less about stats except for winning football games and of course fantasy football.

Yeah, TEAM SPORT. It's why your defense can be number one, and you have a losing record. Because, team sport.

"dcafiero wrote:

Pathetic, man.

Yeah, but no one was being negative towards Tannehill.

It was only a matter of time. I've said it numerous times, Tannehill is not Marino. He's his own QB. Why can't people just be happy when the team is successful?

Wouldn't anyone agree a screen that goes for 40 yards is different than a 40 yard in the air pass? Alex Smith can throw screens all day. He can't do what Aaron Rodgers or Big Ben does.

The results Sunday were excellent. Ecstatic. But these FO guys are isolating what Tannehill did and for that, you have to measure what he actually did. 10 of 19 completions were at or near the line of scrimmage. That metric can't be ignored. Ryan is the QB, he runs the offense, he made those throws so he gets credit for all of it. But the analysis doesn't stop there. I fully expect BB to attack our weakness so let's see how we respond.

"jdang307 wrote:

Wouldn't anyone agree a screen that goes for 40 yards is different than a 40 yard in the air pass? Alex Smith can throw screens all day. He can't do what Aaron Rodgers or Big Ben does.

The results Sunday were excellent. Ecstatic. But these FO guys are isolating what Tannehill did and for that, you have to measure what he actually did. 10 of 19 completions were at or near the line of scrimmage. That metric can't be ignored. Ryan is the QB, he runs the offense, he made those throws so he gets credit for all of it. But the analysis doesn't stop there. I fully expect BB to attack our weakness so let's see how we respond.

Exactly what I was saying. They're going to be hard up on our running attack and cloud the short passing lanes. We've seen this before.

The game will fall squarely on Tannehill's shoulders to hit them up for big plays ........... unless somehow the running game just bludgeons them.

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

I.E....bla bla bla....durrr durrr durrr...I got nothing.

You're right you don't. You're attempting to take up for a combined win record of 2-10 as if it's some benign event. They have two wins between them for a reason ...... and it ain't bad luck.

We beat the hell out of bad teams. I'm happy about that, as that is what you want instead of playing down to them like the majority of the times we've seen. The real test comes Thursday vs. the best in the league.

"Rock Sexton wrote:

Exactly what I was saying. They're going to be hard up on our running attack and cloud the short passing lanes. We've seen this before.

The game will fall squarely on Tannehill's shoulders to hit them up for big plays ........... unless somehow the running game just bludgeons them.

Already setting up the reason for the loss before it happens, eh?

"Rock Sexton wrote:

You're right you don't. You're attempting to take up for a combined win record of 2-10 as if it's some benign event. They have two wins between them for a reason ...... and it ain't bad luck.

We beat the hell out of bad teams. I'm happy about that, as that is what you want instead of playing down to them like the majority of the times we've seen. The real test comes Thursday vs. the best in the league.

Why does their 'record' matter but them being #1 pass defense going into that game doesn't? Record negates actual stats? Actually sounds pretty dumb. That's cherry picking for you.

More than half of the NFL has a relatively bad record, including EXTREMELY good teams. Terrible year to act like a record means anything. Quite possibly the worst year in a long time.

"dcafiero wrote:

Already setting up the reason for the loss before it happens, eh?

No. I'm telling you how they will be schemed, as if it weren't BLATANTLY obvious in the first place.

"dcafiero wrote:

Why does their 'record' matter but them being #1 pass defense going into that game doesn't? Record negates actual stats? Actually sounds pretty dumb. That's cherry picking for you.

More than half of the NFL has a relatively bad record, including EXTREMELY good teams. Terrible year to act like a record means anything. Quite possibly the worst year in a long time.

Ahhhh, the spin cycle and dash of softener.

"Rock Sexton wrote:

No. I'm telling you how they will be schemed, as if it weren't BLATANTLY obvious in the first place.

Mhm. And if Tannehill happens to get murdered while "needing to be the sole reason we win" I'm sure I know who you will be blaming, even with the obvious in front of you.

"dcafiero wrote:

Mhm. And if Tannehill happens to get murdered while "needing to be the sole reason we win" I'm sure I know who you will be blaming, even with the obvious in front of you.

You act like teams don't scheme to take out what you do well and make certain players beat them. Talk about naive.

"Rock Sexton wrote:

You act like teams don't scheme to take out what you do well and make certain players beat them. Talk about naive.

Gunna have to re-read where I mentioned anything about scheme, or was even talking about anything you've been saying in the first place. I was merely pointing things out (like your obv bias) in what you're saying.

"Rock Sexton wrote:

Ahhhh, the spin cycle and dash of softener.

Dontcha hate when you gotta edit stuff late?

Spin cycle? Softener? Act like what I said isn't 10x more true than any garbage you say here. Look at NFL records and get back to me.

The team had a gameplan, and they executed it, and it worked far better than they imagined, I bet. Why take risky shots downfield if you don't have to? Tannehill had a nice deep ball to Paler that was called back because of a penalty. Tannehill had shown consistent ability to hit the 15-20 yarder. Why the doom and gloom?

Answer: people's narratives around Tannehill, that's why. People that always argue against Tannehill, argue against him no matter what type of game he has.

I agree with Dcafiero. Pathetic.