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Advanced Stats Poo-Pooing on Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by GARDENHEAD, Oct 27, 2015.

  1. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    PFF on his performance last night:

    This was a bizarre performance from Ryan Tannehill (-0.6) at the helm of the Dolphins’ offense, with an unexpected split on his performance under pressure last night against the Patriots. Pressured on 22 of his 49 dropbacks, Tannehill went 11-for-17 for 168 yards and a PFF grade of +4.8 when the Patriots got pressure on him. That would have set him up for a big night were it not for him going 17-for-27 for 132 yards—and both of his interceptions—to earn a PFF grade of -5.6 when the Patriots didn’t pressure him.
     
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  2. Titleguru

    Titleguru New Member

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    I have to disagree here and I'm hoping that you'll will find another way to characterize another's statement than "dumb". Let's have a little mutual respect here. Tracking my brief history on this board it's evident that I'm not Tannehill's biggest fan. I've been critical of his abilities, namely his one dimensional throwing style and his apparent inability to check off quickly.

    Frankly his passing ability has improved, but he's still not a leader. The "take-away" from this game may be the realization that QB's can't be manufactured over a period of 4 or 5 years. Being a successful QB is something you're brought up with in Pop Warner, at the High School Level, and at the nations colleges. This is not a hard and fast rule, but merely a guideline. There are exceptions to every rule. Looking at the various "clans" that inhabit the NFL it's more than apparent that pedigree has value.

    Let's remember that Tannehill is a converted WR and was really only a QB for like 2 years in College. He's a very good athlete and certainly a serviceable QB based purely on God's gifts. That being said, he doesn't have the pedigree or the seasoning of some of the Franchise Quarterbacks. Now I'm sure you'll come up with all kinds of exceptions, but the anecdotal evidence is everywhere. You only have to look at Pounceys or the Mannings for confirmation.

    So let's understand that Tannehill is serviceable, maybe a little better than that would indicate. But certainly not Franchise Quarterback material unless you use his salary for comparison. Hell even Ross has hedged his bets with Tannehill by a series of "options". So he gives the guy $96 million over a period of years, but then says "but I can cut you at anytime with only a $22 million hit" (peanuts in the NFL).
     
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  3. BigNastyDB13

    BigNastyDB13 Well-Known Member

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    Well there goes that excuse. Stills had a drop on a great pass so therefore all the other in completions don't matter. Also cameron dropped a pass with 2 guys hanging all over him so what do you expect Thill to do? He can't throw it AND catch it! ;)
     
  4. BigNastyDB13

    BigNastyDB13 Well-Known Member

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    Very well said. The offensive line and playcalling does thill no favors but there's probably a good reason why the coaches don't trust him to consistently make good decisions and deliver the ball downfield. It is what it is. Unfortunately, there's not many good QBs to be had in the nfl at this time. Our team is a lot like our QB. Mediocre.
     
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  5. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    They don't trust him. This was evident back to last year when we headed to Wembley with Tanny's job rumored to be on the line. The playcalling changed dramatically. Not to mention just look at his contract. Does that say complete trust to you?
     
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  6. Titleguru

    Titleguru New Member

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    It's an interesting fact that only three Hall of Fame Quarterbacks were first overall picks, so this years QB Sweepstakes did not or next year's does not preclude getting a Franchise Candidate without a first or second overall pick. Griese was selected as a #4 and Marino was #27. Yes, you saw that right, 27th!! Perhaps the Fins should use the rest of the year trying out and developing new talent "on the job".

    For my money I'd cut Dallas Thomas in a heartbeat and pick up anyone. Did you see his blocking during the Pat's game?

    I do want to point out one fabulous thing that Philbin did accomplish, Matt DARR!! Wow, did you see that kick from the endzone to back up the Pats way into there territory. There's something to be said about a guy who gives you consistently good field position.
     
  7. this team has much bigger problems than its worth to go fishing in the draft for QBs right now. RT is servicable much of the rest of the team is not and that which is has no depth behind them. Our biggest need and has always been for a long time is HC.

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  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And the anti-Tannehill crowd wastes no time in spreading their manure around.

    Even though they're not really looking at the whole picture.
     
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  9. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    That punt was a monster, I can't remember the last time I saw a punt like that, if ever.
     
  10. Titleguru

    Titleguru New Member

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    I believe it was officially 70 yards. Miami is ranked 4th in the punting category. However, considering net yards, hitting inside the 20, and other factors, I'd say Miami & Buffalo are the two best punting teams in the league.

    On the one hand I sorta agree with Shula Guy regarding other pressing needs. However my point was finding Quarterbacks, especially that special breed of Great NFL QBs, requires a combination of good selection, being at the right place & draft order and just plain luck. Remembering that Tom Brady was a 7th round choice. The point being that the Fins should not be complacent when considering potential talented QB Candidates. Consider that Landry was a 63rd overall pick in the 2nd round. Knowing what we do now, it was probably one of the best picks in years.
     
  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    for you to mock folks who have legitimate concerns about the qb is crap Res..

    no'one is saying anything disrespectful, they just dont evaluate the position like you, maybe they {im included} dont see it clearly as you do, no reason to call their opinions sh$$..
     
  12. yogi superstar

    yogi superstar Banned

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    When those guys thank your post, it sucked.
     
  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    They are. They come out of the woodwork any time there is an off game, and they disregard ****ty oline play and ****ty receiver play. They spew their garbage about Tannehill, as if he's the only thing at fault.

    It's stupid, really. To these posters, Tannehill will never be good enough. I've been told I should let it go, and stop posting my opinion. Maybe they should too. It's just constant negativity, and pretty unfair, when looking at what he's dealing with. Did Tannehill play well? No. But it's silly to act like he's the cause.
     
  14. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    The stats don't tell the whole story. The real story is Tannehill got picked off twice without the run game. He didn't hit a threatening play action or read option to get defenders to back off early on like I predicted he had to. I knew he had to counter Belichick's plans to hone in on stopping the run and so did Campbell. They ran play action and read option early but Tannehill didn't put fear into the defense at all. They dared him to throw all game. I'm sure you know that though, I just wanna make it clear to others.

    That's always been the story of his career and it always will be. He's so dependent on the run it's ridiculous. I know this is a myopic example but one week Miller got 175 yards, 1 TD and Tannehill set an NFL record for most consecutive completions. The following week Miller and the other RBs are basically shut down, he throws 2 INTs and 0 TDs.

    We need a QB that can get things going consistently even when the run game is struggling. Somebody to jumpstart it. My idea is to let Tannehill's contract play out until it's most opportunistic to opt out, trade Cincinnati a mid to low pick for McCarron and see what happens.


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  15. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Nothing makes members of the same fan base want to rip each other's throats out more than discussing the quarterback. I've seen it with multiple guys going back years now. That's why I often stay away from these threads. Way too much animosity. It's better to just agree to disagree. Everyone is running in circles at this point with their arguments and it's gotten personal now.

    P.S. Tannehill is a good quarterback and he's going to be with us for a long time. Deal with it. :)
     
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  16. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    This is erroneous. Tannehill was a backup QB that was playing WR. He came to Texas A&M as a QB. Reports were never missed a QB meeting and got the appropriate reps that a backup gets. His athleticism allowed him to play WR and pretty well. It was also reported that Tannehill would sometimes not even practice during the week running routes as a WR and just play on Saturdays. Pretty impressive. How often that happened it wasn't reported.

    In 2008, during his red shirt freshman year Tannehill competed against Stephen McGee and sophmore Jerrod Johnson. Tannehill finished third. Sherman moved him to WR, but he remained the 3rd string QB attending meetings and getting the limited reps a 3rd string QB would get.

    In 2009, Tannehill competed against Johnson for the starting QB and again couldn't win the job. He remained the backup QB (only took 8 snaps) and continued to play WR.

    In 2010, Tannehill still wasn't able to beat out Johnson who had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in the spring and during the first 6 games struggled with accuracy and putting "zip" on the ball. In the 7th game of the season he split time with Johnson at QB, outperformed Johnson that game and held the QB job for the rest of the year.

    In 2011, Tannehill led the preseason #8 Aggies to a 7-6 record and out of the top 25. The Aggies made a habit of collapsing in the second half, leading at halftime in 5 of those games ( leading by 18, 17, 11, 9, 7 at the half in those 5 losses) and losing 4th quarter leads. Of course, the defense gave up points, but the offense couldn't maintain big leads.

    Tannehill finished the year (as a 5th year senior) as the 56th ranked QB in the nation. His 2nd half QB rating of 116.3 would have put him 94th in the nation out of 115 QBs (HOLY **** THAT IS BAD!) which explains a big part why the Aggies had so many second-half collapses.

    The idea that Tannehill was a college QB for like 2 years is not accurate. Tannehill was a QB for 5 years in college (including a red shirt year) but was not able to win the starting job until halfway through his junior year when Johnson didn't appear to fully recover from shoulder issues. During his time as a backup QB he played WR.
     
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  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I dont want you to stop posting your opinions, didnt think that for one second, {whoever told you that doesn't get how this forum should work} I want you to allow others to vent their frustrations, let them tell us what their seeing, and understand that everybody expresses their frustrations and evaluations differently, but one thing you should keep in mind, is that you know, I know, that they are hardcore dolphin fans wanting the team to win..there is no denying that the team has been downright consistently dissapointing for a long time, so I can see that angle of pissed off posting, I mean we dont want a bunch of blind homers on the board, {even though we all should have a bit} there is reason for critiism, and whether you agree or not, I think there is definite reason to think that the qb might not have what it takes...and for those who aren't sold, its hard to look at other parts of the team until you have that position secured..

    Res your always blaming the oline...on occassion you will acknowledge a bad game, but I never hear what you think of the skillset, Its always, the skillset cant show itself behind a poor line, poor run game, and poor receivers..

    Im not sure the players think he can get it done when the pressure is on, im not sure they believe in him, I think they like him and respect him for being tough, but I dont think they think he can lead them..The lack of regard for him on the ground while their giving up sacks is disrespectful.

    The pressure is squarely on his shoulders now, he's got to go to buffalo and play a good solid game on the road in a hostile environment.

    Check this out Res, if the line is so bad, and everyone knows it, why does he not do anything about it?, why doesnt he change his style of play to adapt?, why dont you see this kid take off from a chaotic pocket? why does he continue to sit in the same spot so the defense knows where hes gonna be..please dont cite 1 play where he gets out on the perimeter and makes his one play, because your just feeding into my point, the fact that he continues to play the game like a strict pocket passer in the face of a below average oline is the most indicting aspect of all of this..

    now I have those concerns and I dont think their so outlandish, I think theres enough data to support them, just like you have your reasons why he still has lots of ceiling left, my concerns if anything, have been consistent from the get..'' I question his leadership skills and can he make plays when protection breaks down, on the road, in a hostile environment'', you've read a bunch of times where I stated that I think it comes down to that..so tell me, what did he do in that game yesterday to disprove whats going on in my head?...how am i supposed to express my opinion positively if thats what I think and feel..Now when he played well last week of course I started to rethink everything again, because there are opinions that I respect that are telling me Im not seeing this one clearly, that the oline is the root of all evil, so just like I always do, I keep trying to see how the oline affects the perforance of the qb, but it seems to always come back to the same place..which is, he continues to follow a script like its the bible..The lack of improv in his game is very low for a qb with his type of athleticism, so it leads me to believe that he's not seeing it quick enough and clear enough to do something about it..

    of course most folks think I harp on this running aspect, well, its part of the process and figuring out if he's the one..Think about this for more than 2 seconds??..Did you know that his cpg are down almost two carries a game, he's averaging about 1.75 carries per game?..I mean really, how that im the only one who thinks thats just ridiculous blows me away ... why does he think of himself as a pocket passer?.. imo, if thats all he's gonna be, that style of game, its not gonna be good enough for us to win multiple championships, so thats why I talk about it, to me, its the most glaring/disturbing indictment of who he is, and what he thinks he is..and if he doesn't get it real quick, and change his style of play, then I dont think he's the one, if he does, then there may be a chance..

    I'm hoping our coach tells him to spit out his gum, get his *** in gear, and start making plays on his own if he has to..yes, qbs can do that, they dont need their hand held, their perfectly capable of helping their offense funtion.

    I really think he needs to re-evaluate everything, from the way he leads, to what kind of qb he needs to be, and change it in time for buffalo..
     
  18. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    its a tannehill thread Rock , its where we talk about our concerns and our positves..
     
  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    ok, let me pose this question to the board about buffalo..considering we dont roll the dude outside the pocket, considering he no longer keeps the ball on the read option, and considering he never runs off the script, how whould you like to formulate that gameplan eh? if we cant attack them using the qb's strengths I guess your left with hoping the oline is gonna hold up and dominate and ryan will just pick them apart...

    good plan..good talk...readddddy break.
     
  20. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Of course. I'm just saying there's never a more heated debate than the QB debate. Been that way for years.
     
  21. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Hmmm. So that's a good thing or a bad thing? ;)
     
  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I exhaust you?

    You absolutely made a claim that wasn't true.
    You absolutely back pedaled on it.
    You absolutely made a typo (or didn't make a typo and meant what you typed.)
    You absolutely dragged my name into this.
    You absolutely have insulted me in almost every single post you've made towards me and some that were towards others.
    You have a serious problem with me. You should put me on ignore.
     
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  23. Titleguru

    Titleguru New Member

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    I stand corrected Sir. However based on your post, I can't see a record of a true winner in Tannehill's past. I don't see anything like "despite a weak front line Tannehill was able to lead the Aggies to victory" or something similar. I do however think his wife Lauren is an absolute hottie.
     
  24. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    :lol:
     
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    DJ, I would LOVE to see Tannehill be more aggressive. The way the Tannehill stuff had played out, makes it seem that I think that Tannehill is the greatest ever, just by the nature of how the debate about him has gone. The problem is, that the debate is almost always focused on stuff that I don't think Tannehill is at fault for. I am very concerned that Tannehill still looks like he does right now. I think Tannehill is a good QB. I think Tannehill is a guy that needs a decent oline to be successful, and, if you give him that, he will put up great numbers. He probably isn't a guy that is going to do Wilson type stuff behind bad lines. It is what it is. I just don't get why certain people have to swarm like cockroaches everytime the offense struggles, placing all the blame solely on Tannehill.

    Most of this is aimed at this crop of new posters, with join dates in 2015.
     
  26. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    That is b/c Tannehill had a very good OL in college. In fact, the two tackles blocking for him were taken 2nd overall and 6th overall in their respected drafts and the C is on the Seahawks roster. He also had very good group of wideouts. This is why Mel Kiper called out Tannehill a couple of weeks back saying the excuses went all the way back to his college days.

    The storyline for Tannehill's senior season would be something like "despite a strong front line and group of wideouts, Tannehill was able to lead the Aggies out of the top 25 amid poor QB play contributing to second-half collapses snatching defeat out of the hands of victory along with a late season collapse losing 4 of the final 6 games."

    As far as leadership, he did lead his high school team to the playoffs he senior season. So there is that. He also was a 3-star and the 23rd ranked dual-threat QB coming out of high school in 2007 according to rivals.com. Interestingly the two 5-star dual-threat QBs in the same class were Tyrod Taylor and Cam Newton.
     
  27. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I think any sensible person can agree that Tannehill needs a running game to do well, which of course means a balanced offense with a decent offensive line.

    He can't improvise like Wilson. Not a beast like Newton or an athlete like Kaepernick.

    He's not a pure pocket passer, he's more like a less talented Luck. He has won solely from the pocket but not consistently enough.

    My biggest concern with Tannehill isn't even his leadership or intensity like DJ thinks (I agree those are issues), but that he can't step up when the rest of the team is struggling. Last game was a perfect example of that.

    Running game was shut down and he couldn't set the tone early to get defenders worried about him. No big play action or read option plays. Nothing. Ended up with garbage time 300 yards, no TDs and 2 INTs.

    Before that he set an NFL record when Miller went off for 175 yards and a TD. He's just not a special QB. He's mediocre.

    No more excuses about the offensive line. The offensive line can't help Miller get 100 yards a game. They can only do that once in a while.

    Opposing teams will hone in on the run like they do against the Chiefs. Tannehill is going to have to make them fear him but they don't and won't until he gives them a reason to.


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  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So, let me get this straight: you admit that the offensive line is a problem, but state that no one should point to that, instead, we should focus on the QB who gets decimated by said bad offensive line? Frankly, the oline sets everything up. I don't think that Tannehill needs Miller going off for 175 yards to win. However, if the oline is giving Miller some room, and he does that, then you stick with it. The problem is, the oline is either blocking well and giving Miller space and Tannehill a little time, or they're letting Miller get hit in the backfield, and giving Tannehill no time. There's no in-between. If they couldn't run block, but gave some time to Tannehill, I think he could be successful. The other issue, I just don't see a vibrant passing scheme. We routinely have two or three receivers in the same area, and our passing scheme just looks easy to cover.

    I guess what I'm saying, is that, still, I don't think that simply replacing Tannehill with a different guy will yield better results, as I think the problems are bigger than that. It's like, when I watch our games, it looks like the defense has 15 players, our routes are shut down so well. I think it's one reason Tannehill goes short so often.
     
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  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Tannehill played like crap Thursday (so did the whole team and the coaches). But that's not necessarily indicative of anything deeper in regards to Tannehill.

    He played great last Sunday (so did the whole team and the coaches). But that's not necessarily indicative of anything deeper in regards to Tannehill.
     
  30. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    My point is Tannehill's performance is often very dependent on everybody else's performance.

    So, if that's the case, he doesn't do anything to elevate the team. This is what sports analysts are referring to when they say the greats elevate others around them.

    This is why we always go back to that some old tired argument of blaming everybody around Tannehill. It's the offensive line, it's the running backs, the wide receivers (seasons past, obviously), etc. Eventually you've got to analyze Tannehill and see what he brings to the table.

    The writing is on the wall already. We've had enough time to see what he can do. He's extremely dependent on all others around him, which shows why we've always had a mediocre record.

    So now we're hoping for Campbell to be our savior. Hopefully he can make the rest of our team so powerful that Tannehill doesn't have to be above average or elevate anybody's play.

    Nobody cried about the Pats offensive line being on its last legs but us losing James is the scapegoat like when we lost Albert.


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  31. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Yes it is. He's TOO dependent on the team as a whole. He doesn't elevate the team the way good to great QBs do. He's mediocre. He has big games when everybody else does well and rarely does it on his own. When we struggle, he almost always struggles.


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  32. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Wow what ur saying is he has never been a winner.
     
  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Prove it. Prove the times the offense played well it wasn't because of him.
     
  34. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    You want me to go through every game he's ever played? How about we look at this season so far first?

    Terrible stats every game when we haven't ran the ball well. Go through them and you'll see. His best season was when Miller ran for, what, 1100/1200 yards off of not too many carries? Also doesn't factor in that Moreno had that 100+ yard game when we stomped the Pats at home.

    Mediocre stats throughout his entire career. Middle of the road QBR and Passer Rating. Some guys behind him in those stats are far more accomplished.

    His skill set doesn't make defenses back off the run. Can't hit deep balls, read option is underwhelming, rarely has big games from the pocket. How many times has he had 3 or 4 TDs with no INTs?

    So yeah, it's safe to say he doesn't thread the needle much in either direction. Everything points to mediocrity. The stats and the game tape. Even opposing defenses know this. They stop the run and dare him to throw them into the win column. Hasn't happened.


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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And why haven't we run the ball well? The oline.

    You can complain about Tannehill all you want. Fact is, everything starts with the oline. People on this site are giving Kap a pass, and he looks every bit as bad as Tannehill. But people point to the coaching, and other stuff, as rains for his struggles. If all you needed was a great QB, no other positions would be drafted or paid highly.
     
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  36. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I said the offensive line is part of it numerous times. Campbell set the game plan, which was the biggest issue before him. Now defenses know the run is his biggest emphasis.

    They're going to hone in on it. There's nothing offensive linemen can do if defenses focus on one aspect of the game.

    They can't always pass block like before and they can't take guys out at the first and second level every time run blocking.

    We've clearly had more success the last two games than ever with Tannehill. So he has to do his part to keep the run game alive. Sometimes the QB has to bail out the offensive line too.

    I CORRECTLY predicted before the game that he'd need to hit some play action and read option bombs early to get the defense to back off. He tried but failed. That was it. We were done with. The entire offense broke down depending on him. We couldn't even count on him to relieve that pressure.


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  37. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Tannheill has become a magical creature on these boards.....

    He's the most important player on the team and is single-handedly responsible for wins and losses BUT he can't raise the level of the team and only lowers the team. His good play is ONLY result of the team playing well around him but when the team plays badly its his fault. He plays well when the team runs well, but that's the oline and RB's fault, and if the oline plays poorly, that's no excuse for Tannehill.

    When all of you are done crafting this story, I believe Tannehill will have so many confusing & evil abilities that defy reason and contradict each other, he'll end being the next Harry Potter villain.
     
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  38. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Okay, I stopped reading when you misrepresented my posts. I said he doesn't thread the needle either way. He's mediocre.


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  39. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Jersey
    I think a majority of quarterbacks are dependent on the team around them. How's Andrew Luck doing this year?

    Most quarterbacks need a good line. They need weapons around them and they need an OC who will help put them in a position to succeed. Tannehill is no different.
     
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  40. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Dec 14, 2014
    Started out poorly but picking it up this year. Didn't he lead the league in passing TDs or yards last season? Who were his superstars on offense? T.Y. Hilton from my alma mater? Which RB?

    What has Tannehill done? He doesn't deserve a comparison to Luck.


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