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Ajayi took his shot

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by MrPhinn, Feb 6, 2018.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I should probably point something out before you guys go calculating run/pass ratios from either pfr or ESPN, comparing them and coming up with different numbers.

    In both pfr and ESPN, you'll notice that total passing attempts for Miami is 602 as danmarino said and not 635 as in Carmen's post above:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/
    http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/seasontype/2

    Yet both agree with the 360 total rushing attempts. So what's going on here?

    NFL defines a sack as only occurring on passing attempts, yet no one seems to include that in the "passing attempts" category. However, when stats are combined, like when run-pass ratio is computed, they DO combine listed passing attempts + sacks. Miami had 33 sacks, so you get that 635 from 602+33.

    And as far as NE is concerned, that 767 attempts you see in Carmen's graph includes postseason, which btw is very BAD practice from a statistical standpoint because they're equating different sample sizes (16 regular season games for those that didn't make the postseason vs. more for playoff teams).

    So personally I'd prefer to list run-pass ratios including sacks as passing attempts but ONLY from the regular season. Much cleaner data for analysis purposes.
     
  2. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    That was my mistake. I had the filter for all weeks. Here's the regular season.

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    There was really no reason for him say or do anything to spite the dolphins. Gase may have traded him but they didn't send him off to the Giants or the browns or the bucs. I guarantee those teams would have met the asking price. Instead he got traded to a super bowl favorite, and they ended up winning it all. Some part of him should be eternally grateful. But even now he only sees it as an insult.

    He sees things the way he wants to see them it seems. That's why he's not here. It's why he almost blew his shot at Boise. It's why Doug Peterson will get sick of him too.
     
  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I didn't make it up...twice he started up the middle and then bounced it outside. Then we didn't see him for awhile.
     
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  5. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Kindly point out the minute marks if you would.
     
  6. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    3rd qtr, 9:23, 2 & 10. Are you trying to tell me this is what you saw that was "selfish"? An IZ where the Bang option inside collapsed and he choose the Bounce option for a 9 yard gain?

     
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  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    can we all agree that Ajayis skillet after seeing him a couple years in the NFL is not a skillset that you want to be the centerpiece of your running back unit?

    and that he is a part time running back moving forward?
     
  8. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Certainly, he's not an all-around back, and he needs a complimentary sidekick. But that stands for the large majority of RBs these days as you can count on one hand the amount of full-time ball carriers. Pretty much all teams utilize the RB by committee approach.
     
  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm happy we moved on and got a 4th, you?
     
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  10. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    I thought it was a poor decision. Our RB stable basically consists of a single, unproven stall.
     
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  11. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    I had no problem trading him but we should have done better than a 4th let.alone the last pick in the 4th.Howie raped us for the 2nd time.
     
  12. Jaydog57

    Jaydog57 Canes/Fins/Magic fan

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    Me too, but I noticed it says "Yurp" on his jacket on the Jimmy Kimmel clip.
     
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  13. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I don't think he ever really got it out of his mouth.
     
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  14. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    While I didn’t like the move realistically how long does he have left in the tank? 2 maybe 3 years max. I like having a running back who gets stronger as the game moves on. Someone who can control the clock and wear down defenses. However this trade worked out for Ajayi he moved on won a super bowl got a new chance in Philly and he makes them a better team. We got a Draft Pick though it’s the last 4th rounder! Which is a steal for The Eagles. Miami needs to bring in or Draft a BIG running back that moves the pile to offset Drake who in my opinion is to small for the long haul.
     
  15. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Honestly I don't think I could care less. Two grown men wanting to have a beef with each other... Jay didn't say anything about the fans/team, so its all good for me. Gase made a decision that could be taken badly by Jay. Jay has every right to take a shot at him, and honestly if the quote above is the worst he says, then I would say he isn't even interested in caring a grudge over the whole thing.
     
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  16. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    um, what do you think we would have gotten for him? (keep in mind that Demarco Murray who won the rushing title was traded to the titans for a 4th round, and he was under contract for 4 more years) [trade titans get: Demarco Murray, eagles fourth, Eagles get Titans 4th] we got a 4th round pick for a rent a player (ajayi is a free agent now), that has no history of being a proven back, a history of malcontent, and a history of injuries.

    I'm personally thrilled we got a 4th for him.
     
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  17. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Here's an interesting exercise: Where do you find more playoff teams? Starting from the top or from the bottom?
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It's actually less interesting than you'd think, or if it's interesting it can be easily misleading. The reason is because much of the difference between winning and losing teams can be seen in rushing attempts in the 4th quarter. That is, teams tend to run out the clock with more rushing attempts when they have a lead.

    So rushing more is not so much a causal factor of winning, but a consequence of being good enough to take the lead in the 4th quarter. You have to be careful in using rushing attempts or run/pass ratio, etc... to make an argument about how often teams should run if they want to increase their chances of winning. VERY hard to determine causality.

    In any case, if you want the stats here they are for all playoff teams and SB winners since the 1970 merger (green circles = playoff teams, black line = league average, filled blue circle = SB winner):
    [​IMG]
     
  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think Drake showed some hi level skills, of course we worry about some injury history but yes we need another stallion to compliment him and Williams..

    I want to build a line that makes it easy for anyone..
     
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  20. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don’t think teams would give up a third or him..
     
  21. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Agree with that it's difficult to determine causality. Primarily the "4th qtr rushing increases b/c you have a lead" is a theory and it's not universal, it's still dependent on the team, and ultimately requires a game breakdown.

    Here are the run/pass ratios for this years playoffs.

    [​IMG]
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Just so it's clear, showing overall rushing percentages for different teams, playoff or not, doesn't demonstrate that teams are different when it comes their tendency to run more when they have the lead in the 4th quarter. You need to break down rushing attempts by quarter and by point differential to answer this.

    Here's one guy that did that (see the table and plots at the bottom):
    http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-st...ball-doesnt-cause-you-to-win-games-in-the-nfl

    Assuming that data is correct (all games through week 9 in 2013) you can see that most of the final discrepancy in rushing attempts between the winning and losing team comes from the 4th quarter. He also shows evidence that it's "having a lead" => "more rushing attempts" rather than the other way around.

    So this is not just some theory with no evidence. The evidence supports the idea that teams on average tend to run more when they're ahead in the 4th quarter. Now.. of course there will be variation among teams, but you were talking about a trend in post #57 so we don't really need a team-by-team breakdown to make this argument.

    One disclaimer to all this: I haven't double-checked these stats myself because I'm still in the process of putting together a play-by-play database so I can do a lot more discerning analysis. So my addition to this debate will have to wait a bit.
     
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  23. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Agree about the quarter break down to make a better assessment without film study.

    Here are the 2017 playoffs run/pass ratios by quarter.

    1st:
    [​IMG]
    2nd:
    [​IMG]

    3rd:
    [​IMG]

    4th:
    [​IMG]
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Still going to need point differential in there. Just looking this up on pfr's game play finder for playoff teams in 2017, I'm getting the following for rushing attempts by quarter AND by whether the team was ahead or behind (left out all cases where teams were tied):
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi

    Winning team (points differential > 0)
    1st quarter: 23
    2nd quarter: 56
    3rd quarter: 75
    4th quarter: 96

    Losing team (points differential < 0)
    1st quarter: 38
    2nd quarter: 56
    3rd quarter: 42
    4th quarter: 55

    So based on that quick search the differentials in rushing attempts by quarter are: -15, 0, 33, 41, suggesting that at least in the 2017 playoffs teams started rushing more when they were ahead in the 3rd quarter and not just the 4th quarter.

    In any case.. this is starting to make me a bit uncomfortable in terms of sample size (it's a bit small). Maybe in a month or so I can do the full analysis for all NFL history.
     
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  25. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Thats true.
     
  26. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Nice.

    I can only access the data I'm posting from '16 and '17 but the filters are available as follows:
    • Down(s)
    • Yards to go
    • Week(s)
    • Quarter(s)
    • Field Zone (by 20 yard increments)
    • Yards away from TD (1-99)
    • Offensive Margin (-42 to +36)
    I'm quite interested in he results and exploring different scenarios here, I just don't have the time to do so right now b/c I'd also like a little film study to compliment it.
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Oh!

    Well.. to get a rough idea, all we need are "quarter" and "positive offensive margin" vs. "negative offensive margin" (same thing I did in post #64) ideally for an entire regular season. Not sure if the site you're using allows you to do that.

    If it can only give you the results for every possible "offensive margin".. that's a lot of work but that's exactly the data I'd really want lol. Then I can find the best-fitting function to fit the data which gives you some predictive power.
     
  28. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Tell ya what, I got some time tonight, and you're by far the better statistician, so I'll do the regular season, set the margins by + and -, 1-3, 4-7, 8-10, 11-13, 14-17, and 18+ pts (zero margins by quarter are already above), do each point differential by each quarter, and I'll drop the data in your PM box. That'll be 48 charts so hopefully you have the room, and you can do with them as you wish. It's not difficult, just a little time consuming, so let me know if you want/need anything else and it's no problem for me.

    *No wait, that's 96 charts if I include both years ('16 & '17). LOL Here's goes nothing.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
  29. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Oh man! Carmen.. hold off on that for a moment. There's a reason we have computers lol.

    I think I can take a few shortcuts in importing the necessary data if we're JUST interested in run/pass ratio because I won't need all kinds of data that is usually hard to format. Let me try something in the next hour or so. If I can't automatically get the info I want in an hour then I'll edit this post and let you go for it if you want LOL. But don't waste time just yet.
     
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  30. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Ha ha, sounds good great. This is definitely not my neck of the woods so to speak. Sent you a link in your inbox.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
  31. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Success!!

    I used a database I found on Kaggle (it's a place where researchers share data and challenge other researchers to model that data better) that gives me play-by-play data from 2009-2016. Actually, this database is pretty cool because it has stuff like air yards!! Maybe I'll just focus on using this database for now (still requires lots of formatting for the English words they use to describe plays.. numbers are real easy but words? arghh!).

    Anyway, quick and dirty result for just the year 2016:
    [​IMG]
    I binned from -15:-11, -10:-6, -5:-1, 0, 1:5, 6:10 and 11:15. Sample size is absurdly low beyond that so no reason to care for now. Also.. sample size drops off real quickly as point differential goes away from zero so you can't just fit a simple line/curve to the data.. it has to be a weighted fit and that's a bit more tricky (I have to write extra code for that), so I'm just plotting the raw percentages.

    btw.. this is more revealing than that link in post #62 because that guy was just plotting rushing attempts, not rush percentage, and with such small sample size with higher point differential rushing attempts alone (without knowing passing attempts + sacks) can give highly biased results.

    Anyway, there's the evidence (in 2016) that most of the difference in run/pass ratio comes from what teams do when leading or trailing in the 4th quarter.
     
  32. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Great stuff. Thanks for the time and effort.

    Very telling data as well.
     
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  33. Walter

    Walter Well-Known Member

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    The Line is a must, don't even want to think about the Fins without some MAJOR upgrades in the OL (G's) !

    Well it just might be in the cards...C J Anderson was very critical of the Broncos' move to fire RBs coach Eric Studesville....Now in Davie


    Anderson has two years left on his contract at $4.5 million salaries in 2018 and 2019, but the Broncos will suffer zero dead-money hits if they choose to release him. Anderson was one of the overall bright spots on a bad 2017 Broncos team, rushing for 1,000-plus yards for the first time in his career. But, according to Legwold, Denver wants Devontae Booker to be its starter.
    Anderson just turned 27.....

    Drake and CJ, with an upgraded OL makes RT back there a bit more scarier. I mean not that we'd be actual contenders but it certainly could make our Sundays more enjoyable..

    Just a thought
     
  34. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    I thought the London game pissed Ajayi off the most, because even I thought Ajayi was warming up and should've been fed the ball repeatedly to close out the game. Gase thought otherwise...
     
  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sound like a done deal..CJ to Miami.
     
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