1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Alex44's Weekly FanDuel Tournament Picks

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football' started by Alex44, Nov 7, 2015.

  1. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,812
    8,967
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    Hey guys, long time no see. I've recently found myself addicted to daily fantasy sports and I'm sure some of you are too. Part of the reason I'd like to start doing this is to improve my own game. What qualifications do I have to give advice? Well I haven't cashed it in big, but I did finish 300th out of 35k participants last week in one of their tournaments and generally win a great deal of my H2H and 50/50 games.

    Disclaimer: My picks are not golden,don't bet all your money because I said so. Even the most obvious picks put up a dud now and then. Remember that your H2H and Tournament teams should be constructed different. Some of my tournament players may not be the best for a H2H as you need to take more boom/bust in tournaments to climb the ranks. For every position I will list starters and a couple potential backup corners.

    Remember, these are not all the best players at their position. They are the best I could find as a unit to fit under the cap. I tried to make my backup choices lower tier guys will big game potential. You all know who the absolute best players are at each position, if you want them and can work your team around them go for it.



    NFL Week 9

    Quarterback

    Starter: Phillip Rivers (8,600)

    Why: Rivers is on a tear lately and at 8,600 Rivers gives you a top tier QB without completely breaking the bank. Rivers lost his #1 target in Keenan Allen, but this is a positive. Why? Other players are going to back away from Rivers which means his % owned will be lower than usual. This is what you want in tournaments, Rivers should be able to spread the ball around between WR's Malcolm Floyd and Steve Johnson, while Antonio Gates should be on the field getting his share of looks.

    Backup Plan: Jameis Winston (6,700)

    Why: At 6,700 in salary Winston provides a steal in points per dollar. He is going up against a Giants defense which is susceptible to the pass. If you are looking for a cheap QB with the potential to fill the stat sheet Winston is your man.


    Running Back

    Starter: Devonta Freeman (8,900)

    Why: The Atlanta offense has struggled this year at times, but so has San Francisco. Freeman is the top back out there with Peterson and Gurley facing tough run defenses while Forte and Bell are sidelined with injuries. He carries a high salary, but I expect Atlanta to be nursing a 7-10 point lead the majority of the game ensuring touches for Freeman in both the running and passing game.

    Starter: Deangelo Williams (6,500)

    Why: With Bell on the sideline for the Steelers expect Williams to see the bulk of the workload. While Bell puts up nice fantasy numbers, I don't consider him a top NFL back generally. Williams should be able to step in and put up very similar numbers at a much lesser salary. I expect him to get 15-20 carries as well as 3-5 targets out of the backfield. He has the potential for a big game.

    Backup: Mark Ingram (7,700)

    Why: With Robinson out Ingram should see somewhere between 5-10 more touches than usual. He provides both pass catching ability and running ability. The Titans total run defense has been solid, but they are allowing 4.3 yards per carry.

    Wide Receiver

    Starter: Alshon Jefferey (7,900)

    Why: Jeffery is about as solid a pick as there is week to week at his salary. He see's an abnormal amount of targets for someone in his price range, and combines big play ability with redzone scoring potential. The combination of Forte on the sideline and a potent San Diego offense, the Bears figure to trail in this game and lean on the pass.

    Starter: Dez Bryant (7,900)

    Why: Bryant is what I call my contrarian pick of the week. Owners will tend to shy away from him with injury concerns and Weeden starting at QB. So why Bryant? As long as he suits up, Bryant will be the #1 target for Weeden and get a lot of looks. While losing Romo will definitely hurt Dallas as a whole, I don't expect much hit on Dez as he will be the security blanket and targeted often. There is some boom or bust potential here, but that is what you want in a tournament. Dez could put up 30 points this week or he could put up 5 points this week, but in the end is worth the risk.

    Starter: Michael Crabtree (5,800)

    Why: Michael is the best WR you can get at a bargain basement price. He faces a tough matchup this week, but is the top target for rising QB Derek Carr along with Amare Cooper. Last week Crabtree saw 12 targets, and I expect that to remain consistent as defenses focus more on the play making ability of Cooper.

    Backup: Randall Cobb (7,400)

    Why: Cobb is having a subpar fantasy season and facing a tough defense. No reason to play him right? Wrong. There is no way Rodgers has a week last his last, and someone is going to benefit from that. If I had the leftover salary, I'd play him instead of Crabtree. However with salary restraints in place I had to go with Michael. Carolinas pass defense has been weak against the slot this year and Cobb could have a very nice game for those gutsy enough to start him.

    Backup: Eric Decker (6,300)

    Why: Decker is generally better in H2H matchups due to his high floor. However Marshall steals touchdowns and targets from him, making Decker a risky pick in tournaments. If you are low on salary and like his matchup, he might be a good play.

    Tight End

    Starter: Charles Clay (5,700)

    Why: I originally had Ben Watson in this spot riding the coat tails of last weeks performance. That was until I read an interesting stat. Our Dolphins have allowed over 22 PPG against teams that actually use their TE as a main staple of the passing game. With Tyrod Taylor back and Sammy Watkins on the sideline, Clay should see a good share of both Red Zone and early drive targets. Not what Dolphin fans want to hear, but Clay may have a monster game.

    Backup: Ben Watson (5,700)

    Why: Watson is a growing part of the Saint offense and Brees seems to be finding his groove. Watson will be a hit or miss play most weeks, and the Titan defense has been surprisingly good against the Tight End position.


    Kicker

    Starter: Sebastian Janikowski (4,500)

    Why: He's a kicker with a big leg at the lowest possible salary. Its impossible to predict kickers, so just choose someone cheap with a strong leg.


    Defense

    Starter: New Orleans (4,200)

    Why: The Saint defense has been poor, but the Titan offense has been even worse. The Saints are at home, will have a low ownership percentage and have a chance to beat up on a very poor offense.


    Overall

    I hope this helps someone, as I feel it has helped me. Part of being a fantasy player is being able to explain WHY a certain player is a better choice than another. Doing this weekly should improve my game even if no-one reads it. Stay tuned for updates.
     
    UCFinfan86 and JDelenne like this.
  2. JDelenne

    JDelenne Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    3,720
    1,491
    113
    Mar 12, 2009
    Orlando, FL
    Thanks for the post. I agree with a lot of your picks and had similar line ups on DK. The only thing for me is I refuse to take Dez until Romo is back. On Draftkings Antonio Brown is $200 more than Dez and imo is much more of a lock to have a high output game. Alshon Jeffery is another player who is in my line up every week until he cools off. 30 and 29 points the last 2 weeks and is going for $6700 on DK which i think is under valued.
    As for D/ST i'm rolling with the Eagles a cheap pick against Dallas.
     
    Alex44 likes this.
  3. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,812
    8,967
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    Good call on Brown. Kicking myself for not taking him, if I had with Crabtree I'd have had a monster day at WR.

    Clay put up an egg as well, he was a risky pick but I find TE very hard to predict personally.
     
  4. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,812
    8,967
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    Week 10

    So I'll preface this weeks lineup with this...I have multiple of my own lineups this week and am choosing the one I liked best myself. With that out of the way, here are my tournament picks of the week. Players may not be the best at their position but in my eyes have a strong bang for their buck.

    I went with a WR heavy lineup this week and looked for value at QB and HB


    Quarterback

    Starter: Kirk Cousins (6,500)

    Why: Cousins has actually played fairly well this season and looks to see a lot of garbage time passing this week against a Saints defense that is closer to Swiss cheese than the Swiss army. In the middle tier of QB play, there is limited variation in fantasy production. Bad defense + passing opportunities should = fantasy points.

    Backup: Cam Newton (8,200)

    Why: If you are looking to spend money at QB Cam is your guy. He has consistently put up fantasy points this season and I dont see that changing against the Titans.

    Runningback

    Starter: Darren McFadden (7,000)

    Why: McFadden is a good play as long as Romo is out. He is the lone workhorse of the Dallas offense and is capable of breaking a huge gain or two for a TD.

    Starter: Jeremy Langford (6,200)

    Why: While the Rams have a very strong defense I expect this to be a very low scoring game. This should mean more touches for Langford in both the running and passing game. I don't see a big week like last, but I do see 17-24 fantasy points which is what we want in this lineup.

    Backup: There are a lot of backs I really like this week. Demarco Murray is in quite a few of my lineups, D. Williams should have another solid game against the Browns. Gurley should put up his usual numbers along with breakout potential for Blount.


    Wide Receiver

    Starter: Deandre Hopkins (8,900)

    Why: Hopkins should get involved early and often against the Bengals as he remains the Texans only real offensive threat. There should be a lot of garbage time passing in this game allowing Hopkins to put up big numbers.

    Starter: Odell Beckham Jr (8,800)

    Why: The Giants take on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots this week, and it figures to be a shootout. New England has been bad against the pass at times this season, and Manning will look to Beckham for big plays from start to finish. Depending on the Giant offense, this game may also have a great deal of garbage time passing for Beckham to do his work.

    Starter: Allen Robinson (7,500)

    Why: A legitimate #1 receiver going up against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Enough said. Bortles is going to have quite a nice game and Robinson should put up over 20 points easily.

    Backups: Jarvis Landry, Jordan Matthews, Julian Edelman

    Tight End

    Starter: Jordan Reed (5,800)

    Why: This week I did a QB-TE handcuff with Cousins and Reed. Reed is the favorite target of Kirk and figures to benefit from the garbage time mentioned before. Unlike many TE's Jordan isn't dependent only on TD's as he receives so many targets. A TD or two could mean a 20+ point game.

    Kicker

    Starter: Greg Zuerlein (4,500)

    Why: At minimum salary with a name like Legatron...why not. He figures to be in a mid scoring game where he will have opportunities to score points.

    Defense

    Starter: Carolina Panthers (4,700)

    Why: The Panther defense goes up against the Titans in week 10. Mariota will not find the success he did last week against the Saints. Carolina should have no trouble shutting down the Titans...and I predict an interception or fumble by Mariota for a TD.
     
    JDelenne likes this.
  5. JDelenne

    JDelenne Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    3,720
    1,491
    113
    Mar 12, 2009
    Orlando, FL
    I like it. To make a DK lineup i'll probably have to go a little cheaper on the WR's. on DK this lineup would leave you $3000 for your Flex spot which is a rough spot to be in. I think everyone should have DeAngelo Williams in their lineup. Big Ben isn't playing and Cleveland is 32nd against the run.
     
    Alex44 likes this.
  6. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,812
    8,967
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    One thing I've learned on FD is that WR play is way more important than HB play in tournaments...or rather at a high price. A WR on a great day will put up 30+ points in their system while a HB might put up 22-27 on a day where they tear it up. Of course there are exceptions.


    I agree on Williams though, he's in a few of my lineups (I did 10 $1 tournament lineups this week) and if you can afford him on your team definitely go for it. I could compromise my defense a little bit to upgrade from McFadden but I'm not 100% sure its worth it. Any thoughts on that?

    I'm eventually going to try DraftKings myself but want to get strong on FD first before I start having to be strategic on both.
     
  7. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,812
    8,967
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    I just took a flier on one of my $1 teams, figuring if they bust it is only $1

    QB: Johnny Manziel - Getting the start today against a bad Steeler defense.
    RB: Jeremy Langford - Very cheap RB option that could put up points.
    RB: James Starks - Lacy has been ruled out for this game, Starks should see entire workload.
    WR: Odell Beckham Jr - Big game potential every week
    WR: Antonio Brown - Risky, but the Browns defense is terrible and he is the guy Jones will be looking for.
    WR: Jarvis Landry - There is going to be some wind today, short passing is at a premium
    TE: Rob Gronkowski - Giants can't stop TE's this season.
    K: Legatron
    Def: Panthers

    Wow...there are two games left to play but as of now this lineup is #132 out of 230,000.
     
  8. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,812
    8,967
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    Well this has been a tough week for me coming up with viable lineups! Not as much value on the board as prices have caught up to the overachievers. So this week I'm doing a slightly different format. Two of my favorite lineups with brief explanations of each player. There will be a bit of overlap, and remember we don't just want great players, we want the players that no-one has that may out perform the masses.


    Lineup #1

    Quarterback: Brock Osweiler (6,000)

    Why: Okay put away the torches and let me explain. This is a very personal pick for me, I loved Osweiler coming out, I wanted him rather than Tannehill. Massive frame, pocket mobility, cannon arm and a few seasons on the bench to work on his weaknesses. Osweiler fits better than Manning into the Kubiak offense and I firmly believe Osweiler is going to make the Broncos strongly consider whether bringing Manning back into the equation is even a good idea. For Osweiler to reach value at his pick he needs to score about 12 points. I'm predicting at least 2 TD and 250 passing yards. Easy pick.


    Runningback: Adrian Peterson (8,900)

    Why: There isn't much value at HB this week and aside from being "All Day" Peterson is also "Every Day" and a reliable fantasy option every week he is healthy on the field. Peterson is primed for a big day in what should be a close game against the Packers.

    Runningback: Marshawn Lynch (8,100)

    Why: His abdomen is fine. All this scare is about nothing, he was listed the same last week and looked like the Lynch we all know. Marshawn should have no trouble running all over a dysfunctional 49'ers team for at least one score and 100 yards. If you are too scared off by his injury, Lamar Miller is a good alternate pick.

    Wide Receiver: Demaryius Thomas (7,700)

    Why: Brock Osweiler. His big arm and ability to run the Kubiak offense gives the potential for Thomas to be the beneficiary of a TD pass or two. With Sanders injured and possibly sitting on the bench altogether I expect Osweiler to look at Thomas early and often. Expect 10+ targets with the potential for a long TD. Also if you haven't noticed yet...I love to handcuff pass catchers to their QB.

    Wide Receiver: Amari Cooper (7,200)

    Why: How much do trends matter in fantasy football? To me, they are everything. We can't play ourselves so we have to decide what is most likely to happen. In his rookie season Cooper has basically had one great game followed by an average game predictably. That alone isn't enough to start him, but despite their success against Green Bay this Detroit defense just isn't very good. Expect Carr to pick them apart. While Crabtree is a little cheaper and has big game potential, I like Cooper and his ability to rack up long TD's.

    Wide Receiver: Eric Decker (7,000)

    Why: Decker continues to put up points every week. I keep doubting him and keep wishing I'd taken him. I could easily see him scoring a TD or two against a Houston defense coming off a high against the Bengals. His ownership percentage should be low with players scared away by the performance of Houston against the Bengals. Danny Amendola is a viable option if you'd like extra money to spend on defense.

    Tight End: Jason Witten (5,000)

    Why: The Dolphins have trouble against Tight Ends. Period. Tony Romo is back and Witten should see his troubles finding the endzone come to an end.

    Kicker: Sebastian Janikowski (4,600)

    Why: Oakland should rack up points against Detroit. Give me one or two FG with 3-4 extra points and I'm happy.

    Defense: New York Jets (4,700)

    Why: The Texans have no weapons aside from Hopkins who is taking a trip to Revis Island this week. Houston may not even get on the board before garbage time, and I can easily see a few turnovers and the small chance for a defensive touchdown.


    Lineup #2

    Quarterback Tony Romo (8,000)

    Why: I hate spending money at QB, and this is a huge risk here. However I expect his owned % to be very low. In my Thursday to Monday leagues he is at 2%. I see potential for a huge day against our defense.

    Runningback: Adrian Peterson (8,900)

    Why: See above.

    Runningback Charcandrick West (7,100)

    Why: Well KC can't throw the ball very well, especially in the redzone. West is a threat in the passing game and the running game, at a half PPR it makes West worth a look this week.

    Wide Receiver Dez Bryant (8,400)

    Why: Here is my handcuff! Told you I love them! Romo is back, and Dez has had a couple weeks to get back into form. Witten could steal some targets, but Dez is still worth the risk/reward factor.

    Wide Receiver: Sammy Watkins (6,600)

    Why: He should be a matchup problem for New England all day with his rare combination of size and speed. He seems to be fairly healthy and is becoming a favorite target of Tyrod Taylor.

    Wide Receiver: Tavon Auston (5,700)

    Why: Baltimore is just slightly above average in fantasy points allowed to halfbacks and horrible against receivers. Tavon is being used as a combination of both, which should give him the opportunity to break a big play or two. He should have strong total yardage, and if he can find the end zone it will make him a great play.

    Tight End: Jordan Reed (5,800)

    Why: One of the few Tight Ends truly worth starting week to week. I admit, this was a Thursday lineup that actually contained Delanie Walker. He was my pick, and put up 14.9 points. So this is my alternate play.

    Kicker: Greg Zurlein (4,600)

    Why: St. Louis should have a good day offensively and put Zurlein in a postion to kick a couple FG and XP.

    Defense: Atlanta Falcons (4,600)

    Why: Something about Mr. Hasselbeck starting doesn't scare me. Atlanta should have a field day defensively against an offense missing its key cog.
     
  9. JDelenne

    JDelenne Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    3,720
    1,491
    113
    Mar 12, 2009
    Orlando, FL
    I have 2 line ups with Romo/McFadden/Dez/Witten.. because i'm pretty sure there is no way our Defense is stopping all of them.
     
  10. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,812
    8,967
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    Yeah I staggered Witten and Dez throughout a few lineups. I feel like at least one of them will go off big.
     
  11. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

    20,812
    8,967
    0
    Jan 7, 2008
    Hollywood, Florida
    Didn't have time to do a write up but here is my lineup in my $25 tournament. If Im lucky I'll come out of today 200k richer....but probably not.


    QB: Josh McCown - I don't see the Browns moving the ball on the ground. McCown should get plenty of opportunity against a Baltimore team that can't sustain drives.
    RB: Javorius Allen - Baltimore has no choice but to feed the ball to Allen to try and sustain drives. He will get volume points rather than talent points.
    RB: Danny Woodhead - Cheap HB who can put up 20 points any given game. SD should be throwing a lot which increases his potential.
    WR: Deandre Hopkins - Playing against the Saints...enough said.
    WR: Julio Jones - Big time WR should be the focal point of his offense today.
    WR: Brandon Marshall - Unfortunately I see him having a huge day against our defense.
    TE: Jordan Reed - Appears ready to go this week and is a top play for consistency.
    K: Nick Novak - High scoring game on turf
    DEF: KC - Will hopefully dominate a Bills offense that looks clueless lately. Weather should be advantage defense on both sides.
     

Share This Page