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Analysis of my Parcells Drafting History and Mocks

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Conuficus, Jun 16, 2008.

  1. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Dec 8, 2007
    Well away from here
    Seeing as the draft is now gone by for several months, and we have at least had the chance to see the newly drafted players in minicamp. I figured it would be a good time to reflect back on some of the work I did leading up to the draft. I also wanted to see how off I was in my predictions, and whether the overall trend of the draft matched up with the overall numbers from BP and Co. previous drafts s to speak. Hence I have included my original works below – the original “Parcells Drafting History, and The Extension of the draft percentages by round. For those who forgot, or have never felt like having a mind numbing experience trying to digest figures, it is long and contains a great deal of numerical information. I intend to review my analysis, and see what the most recent draft shows, and how badly I did on my mock draft. From here on out in “ “ is the old work: -

    By the way the analysis is after the iatlicized stuff below, and sorry guys this is still a somewhat long post just in terms of the new stuff alone. Have fun and thanks for reading, if you ahve aweek or so spare.

    “I’m just kicking stones here, but I decided to do a little research on my own regarding a historical perspective as to what we may do in the future regarding the drafting of players. If any of you remember, (maybe it was so bad I forever etched into your collective psyche) I did a historical breakdown of the offensive lineman Mike Maser had targeted during his coaching days at Jacksonville and Carolina. I thought such an examination was important being that Maser worked with both Chris Palmer (Jacksonville) and Dan Henning (Carolina) during that time. Henning is, and Palmer was considered a candidate for the Offensive Coordinator position. Both OC’s from my perspective operate a vertical style of offense with a large reliance on the WR’s and RB’s to do the heavy lifting. Palmer made Jimmy Smith, Keenan McCardell, Mark Brunell and Fred Taylor household names. Henning has more than 25 years OC experience in the NFL, and is a former member of the Dolphins family.

    In this project I intend to take the examination a little deeper, I’d like to look at Parcells’ drafting history, and combine it with looking at what Jeff Ireland did in Dallas last year. I don’t think I’ll get too into position coaches as it would cloud the overall body of work, not to mention cause my multiple migraines. I know position coaches don’t draft the players, but they do however have an input. However, it is just too much work for me, sorry boys I’m still getting my feet under me with these outlandishly long musings. At the end of it I will make a mock draft, using the information provided to help make my selections.

    Obviously, in an undertaking like this I cannot simply look at the drafts that occurred during Parcells’ tenure. I must give an indication as to the history before he got there. For instance, I could look in Parcells’ second year with the Jets – 1998, and say he took 3 O-lineman in that draft and where, but does that help explain why, or at the very least give a decent indication. As such, I have decided to provide the 2 drafts previous to when Parcells’ appeared on scene.

    All draft information was gleamed from NFL.com if anyone is interested. And, any player information will be primarily pasted from DraftScout.com. So let’s get started with this:

    Please note: ---------- indicates a time line break. Anything above this line is two years of drafts by the team in question before Parcells got there. Everything beneath it is after Parcells became HC.

    Bill Parcells:
    New England Patriots:

    1991: Round 1 #11 – Pat Harlow, OT – USC
    Round 1 #14 – Leonard Russell, RB – Arizona St
    Round 2 #41 – Jerome Henderson, CB – Clemson
    Round 3 #56 – Calvin Stephens, G – South Carolina
    Round 4 #84 – Scott Zolak, QB – Maryland
    Round 5 #112 – John Vaughn, RB – Michigan
    Round 5 #124 – Ben Coates, TE – Livingstone
    Round 6 #140 – David Key, DB – Michigan
    Round 7 #168 - Blake Miller, C – LSU
    Round 8 #196 – Harry Colon, SS – Missouri
    Round 9 #224 – O’Neil Glenn, -- - Maryland
    Round 10 #251 – Randy Bethel, -- - Miami (Fl)
    Round 11 # 279 – Vince Moore, -- - Ten.
    Round 11 # 303 – Paul Alsbury, -- - Texas St.
    Round 11 #307 – Tim Edwards, DT – Delta St.

    1992: Round 1 #13 – Eugene Chung, OT – VT
    Round 2 #35 – Rod Smith, DB – Notre Dame
    Round 3 #64 – Todd F. Collins, LB – Carson Newman
    Round 3 #71 – Kevin Turner, RB – Alabama
    Round 4 #90 – Dion Lambert, DB – UCLA
    Round 4 #93 – Darren Anderson, DB – Toledo
    Round 5 #116 – Dwayne Sabb, LB – New Hampshire
    Round 6 #165 – Tracy Boyd, -- - Elizabeth City St.
    Round 7 #176 – Wayne Hawkins, -- - Southwest St.
    Round 7 #194 – Jim Gray, -- - West Virginia
    Round 8 #204 – Scott Lockwood, RB – USC
    Round 8 #205 – Sam Gash, RB – Penn St.
    Round 9 #232 - David Dixon, DT – Arizona St.
    Round 10 #262 – Turner Baur, -- - Stanford
    Round 10 #277 – Steve Gordon, C – California
    Round 11 #288 – Mike Petko, -- - Nebraska
    Round 12 #333 - Freeman Baysinger, -- - Humboldt St.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1993: Round 1 #1 – Drew Bledsoe, QB – Washington St.
    Round 1 #31 – Chris Slade, LB – Virginia
    Round 2 #51 – Todd Rucci, OT – Penn St.
    Round 2 #56 – Vincent Brisby, WR – Louisianna-Monroe
    Round 4 #86 – Kevin Johnson, DT – Texas Southern
    Round 4 #110 – Corwin Brown, SS – Michigan
    Round 5 #113 – Scott Sisson, K – Georgia Tech
    Round 5 #138 – Rich Griffith, TE – Arizona
    Round 6 #142 – Lawrence Hatch, CB – Florida
    Round 8 #198 – Troy Brown, WR – Marshall

    1994: Round 1 #4 – Willie McGinest, LB – USC
    Round 2 #35 – Kevin Lee, WR – Alabama
    Round 3 #78 – Ervin Collier, DT – Florida A&M
    Round 3 #90 – Joe Burch, C – Texas Southern
    Round 4 #121 – John Burke, TE – VT
    Round 5 #135 – Pat O’Neill, P – Syracuse
    Round 6 #166 – Steve Hawkins, WR – Western Michigan
    Round 6 #168 – Max Lane, OT – Navy
    Round 7 #198 – Jay Walker, QB – Howard

    1995: Round 1 #23 – Ty Law, CB – Michigan
    Round 2 #57 – Ted Johnson, ILB – Colorado
    Round 3 #74 – Curtis Martin, RB – Pittsburgh
    Round 3 #88 – Jimmy Hitchcock, CB – North Carolina
    Round 4 #112 – Dave Wohlabaugh, C – Syracuse
    Round 6 #195 – Dino Philyaw, RB – Oregon
    Round 7 #234 – Carlos Yancy, DB – Georgia

    1996: Round 1 #7 – Terry Glenn, WR – Ohio St.
    Round 2 #36 – Lawyer Milloy, SS – Washington
    Round 3 #86 – Tedy Bruschi, LB – Arizona
    Round 4 #101 – Heath Irwin, G – Colorado
    Round 4 #119 – Chris Sullivan, DE – Boston College
    Round 4 #124 – Kantroy Barber, RB – West Virginia
    Round 5 #139 – John Elmore, G – Texas
    Round 5 #149 – Christian Peter, DT – Nebraska
    Round 6 #173 – Chris Griffin, TE – New Mexico
    Round 6 #195 – Mario Grier, RB – Tennessee-Chattanooga
    Round 6 #206 – Devin Wyman, DT – Kentucky St.
    Round 7 #216 – Lovett Purnell, TE – West Virginia
    Round 7 #247 – J.R. Conrad, C – Oklahoma

    New York Jets:
    1995: Round 1 #9 – Kyle Brady, TE – Penn St.
    Round 1 #16 – Hugh Douglas, DE – Central St. (Ohio)
    Round 2 #33 – Matt O’Dwyer, G – Northwestern
    Round 4 #106 – Melvin Hayes, OT – Mississippi St.
    Round 4 #107 – Tyrone Davis, WR – Virginia
    Round 5 #142 – Carl Greenwood, CB – UCLA
    Round 6 #178 – Eddie Mason, LB – North Carolina
    Round 7 #217 – Curtis Ceasar, WR – Grambling St.

    1996: Round 1 #1 – Keyshawn Johnson, WR – USC
    Round 2 #31 – Alex Van Dyke, WR – Nevada-Reno
    Round 3 #62 – Ray Mickens, CB – Texas A&M
    Round 5 #133 – Marcus Coleman, CB – Texas Tech
    Round 6 #168 – Hugh Hunter, -- - Hampton
    Round 7 #210 – Chris Hayes, CB – Washington St.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1997: Round 1 #8 – James Farrior, OLB – Virginia
    Round 2 #31 – Rick Terry, DT – North Carolina
    Round 3 #88 – Dedric Ward, WR – Northern Iowa
    Round 4 #102 – Terry Day, DE – Mississippi St.
    Round 4 #104 – Leon Johnson, WR – North Carolina
    Round 5 #131 – Lamont Burns, G – E. Carolina
    Round 6 #164 – Tim Shaft, -- - Northwestern
    Round 6 #191 – Chuck Clements, QB – Houston
    Round 7 #202 – Steve Rosga, DB – Colorado
    Round 7 #229 – Jason Ferguson, DT - Georgia

    1998: Round 2 #56 – Dorian Boose, DE – Washington State
    Round 3 #67 – Scott Frost, DB – Nebraska
    Round 3 #87 – Kevin Williams, FS – Oklahoma St.
    Round 4 #111 – Jason Fabini, OT – Cincinnati
    Round 5 #134 – Casey Dailey, LB – Northwestern
    Round 5 #141 – Doug Karczewski, G – Virginia
    Round 5 #146 – Blake Spence, TE – Oregon
    Round 5 #149 – Eric Blakeman, OT – BYU
    Round 6 #163 – Eric Ogbogu, DE – Maryland
    Round 6 #174 – Chris Brazzell, WR – Angelo St.
    Round 6 #183 – Dustin Johnson, RB – BYU
    Round 7 #195 – Lawrence Hart, TE – Southern Univ.

    1999: Round 2 #57 – Randy Thomas, G – Mississippi St.
    Round 3 #90 – David Loverne, G – San Jose St.
    Round 4 #123 – Jason Wiltz, DT – Nebraska
    Round 5 #162 – Jermaine Jones, DB – Northwestern State-Louisiana
    Round 6 #183 - Marc Megna, LB – Richmond
    Round 6 #197 – J. P. Machado, G – Illinois
    Round 7 #223 – Ryan Young, OT – Kansas St.
    Round 7 #235 – J. J. Syvrud, LB – Jamestown

    Dallas Cowboys:

    2001: Round 2 #53 – Quincy Carter, QB – Georgia
    Round 2 #56 – Tony Dixon, CB – Alabama
    Round 3 #93 – Willie Blade, DT – Mississippi St.
    Round 4 #122 – Markus Steele, OLB – USC
    Round 5 #137 – Matt Lehr, C – VT
    Round 6 #171 – Daleroy Stewart, DT – Southern Miss.
    Round 7 #207 – Colston Weatherington, DE – Central Missouri St.
    Round 7 #240 – John Nix, DT – Southern Miss.

    2002: Round 1 #8 – Roy Williams, S – Oklahoma
    Round 2 #37 – Andre Gurode, G – Colorado
    Round 2 #63 – Antonio Bryant, WR – Pittsburgh
    Round 3 #75 – Derek Ross, CB – Ohio St.
    Round 4 #129 – Jamar Martin, FB – Ohio St.
    Round 5 #168 – Pete Hunter, CB – Virginia Union
    Round 6 #179 – Tyson Walter, C – Ohio St.
    Round 6 #208 – Deveren Johnson, -- - Sacred Heart Univ.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2003: Round 1 #5 – Terence Newman, CB – Kansas St.
    Round 2 #38 – Al Johnson, C – Wisconsin
    Round 3 # 69 – Jason Witten, TE – Tennessee
    Round 4 #103 – Bradie James, LB – LSU
    Round 6 #178 – B. J. Tucker, CB – Wisconsin
    Round 6 #186 – Zuriel Smith, WR - Hampton
    Round 7 #219 – Justin Bates, G – Colorado

    2004: Round 2 #43 – Julius Jones, RB – Notre Dame
    Round 2 #52 – Jacob Rogers, OT – USC
    Round 3 #83 – Steven Peterman, G – LSU
    Round 4 #121 – Bruce Thornton, CB – Georgia
    Round 5 #144 – Sean Ryan, TE – Boston College
    Round 7 #205 – Nate Jones, CB – Rutgers
    Round 7 #216 – Patrick Crayton, WR – Northwestern Oklahoma St.
    Round 7 #223 – Jacques Reeves, CB – Purdue

    2005: Round 1 #11 – DeMarcus Ware, OLB – Troy St.
    Round 1 #20 – Marcus Spears, DE – LSU
    Round 2 #42 – Kevin Burnett, LB – Tennessee
    Round 4 #109 – Marion Barber, RB – Minnesota
    Round 4 #132 – Chris Canty, DE – Virginia
    Round 6 #208 – Justin Beriault, DB – Ball St.
    Round 6 #209 – Rob Petitti, OT – Pittsburgh
    Round 7 #224 – Jay Ratliff, DE – Auburn

    2006: Round 1 #18 – Bobby Carpenter, LB – Ohio St.
    Round 2 #53 – Anthony Fasano, TE – Notre Dame
    Round 3 #92 – Jason Hatcher, DE – Grambling St.
    Round 4 #125 – Skyler Green, WR – LSU
    Round 5 #138 – Pat Watkins, FS – Florida St.
    Round 6 #182 – Montavious Stanley, DT – Louisville
    Round 7 #211 – Pat McQuistan, OT – Weber St.
    Round 7 #224 – E. J. Whitley, C – Texas Tech

    Jeff Ireland in Dallas: I thought that I should show Ireland’s only draft without BP. However, last year’s Dallas team was in the hunt for the Super Bowl, and probably drafted for luxury, and need which can be misleading. I don’ think it is necessary to break it down into percentages, as it is only one draft. But, it appears Ireland followed the Parcells tendencies, which I will highlight in the paragraphs afterwards. Once you’ve read it you can refer back to this draft below, and see what I mean about “tendencies”.

    2007: Round 1 #26 – Anthony Spencer, OLB – Purdue
    Round 3 #67 – James Marten, OT – BC
    Round 4 #103 – Isaiah Stanbeck, WR – Washington
    Round 4 #122 – Doug Free, OT – Northern Illinois
    Round 6 #178 – Nick Folk, K – Arizona
    Round 6 #195 – Deon Anderson, FB – Conneticut
    Round 7 #212 – Courtney Brown, CB – Cal Poly-S.L.O.
    Round 7 #237 – Alan Ball, CB - Illinois

    Well, trying to digest all that just by looking at it is a bit daunting. Being the nice guy that I am, I thought it would be easier to assimilate if I break it down a little. What I will do is to examine what the regime prior to BP did in regards to drafting players. Such examination, should to some degree, help us to understand what BP was trying to achieve with his drafts, aside from the obvious; make the team better. For example, if we looked at BP first year with the Jets we can see he didn’t draft a DB until the later rounds in Steve Rosga. Leaving it there would not let us see that the year before, the previous regimes drafted both Ray Mickens and Marcus Coleman, both CB’s. Both players ended up being solid contributors, so in the eyes of Parcells DB was obviously not that important. He had two decent, young players to go along with Aron Glenn, why would he need to draft a 4th corner high? This is the root of why I have chosen to include two years worth of drafts before BP. Makes it much easier to understand where he was going, especially when we know where the team has gone before. (I know that is a very clandestine way to slip in a Star Trek reference.) Now that I have given a rough gist as to what I am trying to do I think we can go ahead and get started.

    The Patriots: Before Parcells got there the previous regime had a total of 32 picks (I only have info on 22 of the picks though, which is what I can use to make an analysis) and if you break it down they spent: (Numbers will be shown as: 5 of 10 = 5/10)

    12/22 on offense = 55%.........thus 45% were spent on defense (no ST).

    After Parcells came on board he was there for 4 years total. I will break his numbers down by the first two years, his next two years, and overall. Hopefully by doing this it will give a fair example of his first two years compared with the last two years by the previous regime. Then obviously the other numbers tell what he did after his system had been properly implemented (2 years), and how his total tenure breaks down. His numbers break down as:

    First 2 years:
    11/19 on offense = 58%.......6/19 on defense = 32%........2/19 on ST = 10%

    Next 2 years:
    11/20 on offense = 55%.......9/20 on defense = 45%

    Overall:
    22/39 on offense = 56.5%.......15/39 on defense = 38.5%.......2/39 on ST = 5%

    Numerically, Parcells definitely favored the offensive side of the ball. But these numbers do not include any FA signings as FA was just in its infancy in his tenure there. But simply looking numbers such as these only tell which side of the ball he was drafting not the positions, which break down as such:

    First 2 years:
    3 OL – 3/19 = 16% 2 DL – 2/19 = 10.5%
    4 WR – 4/19 = 21% 2 LB – 2/19 = 10.5 %
    2 QB – 2/19 = 10.5% 1 CB – 1/19 = 5.5%
    2 TE – 2/19 = 10.5% 1 S – 1/19 = 5.5%

    Next 2 years:
    4 OL – 4/20 = 20% 3 DL – 3/20 = 15%
    1 WR – 1/20 = 5% 2 LB – 2/20 = 10%
    4 RB – 4/20 = 20% 3 CB – 3/20 = 15%
    2 TE – 2/20 = 10% 1 S – 1/20 = 5%

    Overall:
    7 OL – 7/39 = 18% 5 DL – 5/39 = 13%
    5 WR – 5/39 = 13% 4 LB – 4/39 = 10.25%
    4 TE – 4/39 = 10.25% 4 CB – 4/39 = 10.25
    4 RB – 4/39 = 10.25% 2 S – 2/39 = 5%
    2 QB – 2/39 = 5%

    From the numbers we can see that Parcells’ was determined to revamp the offense, as he spent 11 picks the first two years on that side of the ball. 4 of the 11 offensive picks were spent on a WR, which surprised me honestly. As his tenure continued, he switched his focus to the defensive side of the ball, although he did stay pretty consistent with the additions of both LB’s and D-lineman.

    The New York Jets: Before Parcells got there the previous regime had 14 picks, (I only have information for 13 of 14 picks) and they break down like this:

    7/13 on offense = 54%..........6/13 on defense = 46% (No ST)

    After Parcells came on board he was there a total of 3 years. As such I will break his tenure down as the first two years, and overall.

    First Two Years: (22 total selections, info for 21)
    11/21 on offense = 52%.........10/21 on defense = 48% (No ST)

    Overall:
    15/29 on offense = 52%..........14/29 on defense = 48% (No ST)

    Once again I will break down the information down into positions:

    First 2 Years:
    4 OL – 4/21 = 19% 5 DL – 5/21 = 24%
    3 WR – 3/21 = 14% 2 LB – 2/21 = 9.5%
    1 RB – 1/21 = 4.75% 2 CB – 2/21 = 9.5%
    2 TE – 2/21 = 9.5% 1 S – 1/21 = 4.75% (.25% is dispersed between the 3
    1 QB – 1/21 = 4.75% above, sorry trying to keep it simple)

    Overall:
    8 OL – 8/29 = 28% 6 DL – 6/29 = 21%
    3 WR – 3/29 = 11% 4 LB – 4/29 = 13%
    1 RB – 1/29 = 3% 3 DB – 3/29 = 11%
    2 TE – 2/29 = 7% 1 S – 1/29 = 3%
    1 RB – 1/29 = 3%

    From the data above it is clearly evident that Parcells tried to improve both the offensive and defensive lines during his tenure. But, the defensive line received much more consistent emphasis, as 4 of the 8 O-lineman BP drafted came in his last year. I again highlight the fact that he only drafted 3 DB the entire time he was there is a clear example of why I chose to include the draft classes of the two previous years. In 1996, the Jets drafted both Ray Mickens and Marcus Coleman, plus they already had Aaron Glenn on the roster. If we didn’t have this type of information, an erroneous conclusion could be made regarding Parcells’ desire for CB’s during his days in New York.

    Dallas Cowboys: Before Bill Parcells got there the previous regime had 16 picks (info for 15), and they break down like this:

    6/15 on offense = 40%..............9/15 on defense = 60% (No ST)

    After Parcells came on board he was there a total of 4 years. Once again I will break down his tenure into the first two years, the next two years and overall.

    First 2 Years:
    9/15 on offense = 60%.............6/15 on defense = 40% (No ST)

    Next 2 years:
    6/16 on offense = 37.5%.............10/16 on defense = 62.5% (No ST)

    Overall:
    15/31 on offense = 48%...........16/31 on defense = 52%

    Once again I will break down the information down into positions:
    First 2 Years:
    4 OL – 4/15 = 26.25% 1 LB – 1/15 = 6.75%
    2 WR – 2 /15 = 13.5% 5 DB – 5/15 = 33.25%
    1 RB – 1/15 = 6.75%
    2 TE – 2/15 = 13.5%

    Next 2 Years:
    3 OL – 3/16 = 18.75% 5 DL – 5/16 = 31.25%
    1 WR – 1/16 = 6.25% 3 LB – 3/16 = 18.75%
    1 RB – 1/16 = 6.25% 1 CB – 1/16 = 6.25%
    1 TE – 1/16 = 6.25% 1 CB – 1/16 = 6.25%

    Overall:
    7 OL – 7/31 = 22.5% 5 DL – 5/31 = 16.25%
    3 WR – 3/31 = 9.5% 4 LB – 4/31 = 13%
    2 RB – 2/31 = 6.5% 6 DB – 6/31 = 19.5%
    3 TE – 3/31 = 9.5% 1 S – 1/31 = 3.25%

    Again by breaking down the numbers we can see that Parcells targeted offense heavily in his first 2 years. Without the use of what the previous regime did we would not know that Dallas had spent 60% of its previous 2 drafts on defense. Knowing what the previous regime did, allows us to make a fair and accurate assessment of why Parcells did what he did. I know I keep hammering that point home, but without that part of this analysis present the overall point taken from this is would be; that I like numbers and must type to fill my free time.



    The one thing I have gotten from this research so far is that Parcells is a master at adapting to his surroundings. In Dallas for instance he inherited a good defense and D-coordinator, so he made the parts worked and gave when necessary. He also wanted to revamp the secondary and did that the first 2 years he was there. In New York, he realized he had the secondary he wanted for the most part, and revamped the front seven. Being adaptable usually isn’t the first thing people mention about Parcells, stubborn, controlling and egomaniacal are. If Parcells was all of those things he wouldn’t have done things differently each place he went.

    However, a few trends have shown up in analyzing the numbers outlined. Everywhere Parcells has been he has concentrated a majority of his efforts into the offensive and defensive lines, linebacker core, and surprisingly receivers. The only time defensive backs were a major priority were the first 2 years in Dallas, he drafted more there than anywhere else. Offensive and defensive lines remain Parcells staples however, though much of that has to do with the 3-4 scheme on defense, and the desire for tall, lean and agile O-lineman in my opinion. Not every team has those essential parts in the quantity and quality that Parcells wants them. Receiver being as prevalent as it is was surprising to say the least. That might be the one diamond in the rough of crunching these numbers for dolphins fans. Our new OC – Dan Henning runs a vertical style offense with a great deal of emphasis on the receiver position. We leave much to be desired in terms of overall talent at the receiver position, and we need an influx of talent already, regardless of scheme. Could this be the surprise come draft day, that we take another WR early if possible? Before some say, well BP has always depended on the TE. True he had both Coates and Witten as prolific pass catchers, but neither were seen to be that type of TE coming out of college. And, on a side note, Henning in 25 years as an OC has had a TE catch 30 or more balls 4 times. That’s not a typo – 4 times. Henning uses the TE, just not as the focal point of the offense, and it will be pass catching by committee. Who do you think might be taken first; a TE or WR?

    For the record, I’m not going to over analyze this and provide a series of matter of fact dissections of each transaction, or pick. Rather I’d like to leave something for you, the reader to assess. After all, if I wanted this info for my own conclusions, I wouldn’t have bothered to type it, let alone post it. In my opinion people view information differently, and I am not the one to say that this study is scientific, nor meticulously finite in its assessment of the numbers presented. All I am attempting to do in the end of this is to use the information available to form an educated attempt at my first public mock draft. What you do with it, and how you apply it to your own mock draft or thread discussion (if at all) is up to you. I’m just glad you’ve read this far.

    The 2008 Miami Dolphins:

    Bill Parcells took over the job knowing that the situation isn’t as good as some of the other places he’d been. He has even publicly commented as such. In Dallas he walked into a good defense, NY had some talent in certain areas, such as LB and CB for instance. In Miami here’s my take on what BP sees. He sees a team that before FA was defunct of solid NFL caliber backups, D-line & O-line talent, QB, WR and CB depth. Not to mention an undersized LB core. But, after FA what we have is 3 quality players on the O-line, 2 new D-lineman, 6,000 LB’s and upgraded ST. I won’t go into an all out recant of all of our inadequacies, and or break down of our faults. I will say however that Parcells’ tendencies; O-line, D-line, LB and WR are some of this teams more troubling spots on the roster. Our secondary needs a player or two, but could be serviceable this year. Alas I am digressing as most posters here in the club level know what we need, or at least think they do. Sorry, couldn’t resist.
    Here’s my Mock Draft based on the information I examined earlier. Please keep the laughter to a minimum, I’m sensitive. 

    Round 1 - Chris Long:
    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...php?pyid=33806
    I have thought about this choice quite a bit over the last few days. I keep hearing how Miami is presently up Dorsey’s *** with a petree dish and tweezers so I have to consider both him and Chris Long as the front runners for the #1 overall. And, after seeing his arm measurements of almost 35” there is no longer a question in my mind as to if he has the length required for the DE in a two gap 3-4. If the level of interest we are hearing is true, and I believe it is as it from the gurus, then it might be a two horse race between Long and Dorsey. The apparent lack of interest in J. Long IMO lends credence to my hypothesis. Matt Ryan is being used as bait, pure and simple. He will probably be a good pro QB, but he isn’t worth the #1 overall in my view, at least not to us. Chris Long will be the pick IMO because of what he can bring to the table as far a SOLB. He can help control the run on the strong side, and provide some pass rush. Bringing in Long also allows us to keep Porter on the weak side, where he had the spent his career until last season. Also because the contract demands of a of a OLB are a little less in the end. Also Long will get more of a chance to show why he is getting paid, where as Dorsey will be lost to common fan, and thus bring about their ire for the lack of “big plays”. I know this is rather brief, and superficial but I think this pick has been debated to death and I can’t offer a new take, and won’t.

    Round 2a - James Hardy: http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...php?pyid=33065
    Here is where the information I examined earlier plays a big part for me. Seeing how surprisingly enamored with receivers as BP is, and how Henning’s offense requires them, I think the Fins will look to fill this need earlier than most would think. Parcells and co. signed Ernest Wilford to be a big receiving threat – size wise. Wilford should excel in that role, unfortunately to expect Wilford to become a solid #2 after being a #3 on a mediocre Jaguars receiving corp is a bit much. Having Wilford means having an experienced guy, who can start the season, and eventually give way to Hardy later on. Dan Henning has utilized a big receiver in his last two stops as OC; the Jets and Carolina. Chances are he will want one this time around, and so will Parcells. Hardy is just an amazing athlete, and can go up and make the big grab. He does need some refinement in route running, but who doesn’t at WR? Malcom Kelly, or Limas Sweed are also possibilities, for an early name call. If we don’t get a WR early, we will in all likelihood look at Jordy Nelson, or Paul Hubbard in rounds 4-5. However, should none of these guys be there at #32, I think we could consider Antoine Cason to play CB. At this pick I am trying to get value, much as BP and Ireland will, Cason at #32 is a great value, and fills a need.

    Round 2b – Kendall Langford:
    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...php?pyid=56382
    Langford creates some added flexibility to the defensive front, and should play the weak side for us. His weight has fluctuated from the low 300’s to 275lbs for the Senior Bowl. To my eye this fluctuation was caused more so by his desire to show that he was a pass rushing DE, who command the big dollars as opposed to the natural 3-4 DE that he is. Langford was only doing what he thought would give the best chance to raise his draft stock. Langford can play both the DE position for us, or kick inside on pass rushing situations. He has some natural pass rushing ability which could come in handy. He has the lateral agility that I think is necessary for the position especially the weak side. If Langford is gone my first choice to replace his position would be Dre Moore. He is tweener, plays a little tall to be a full time DT, but as a 3-4 DE he may be a natural fit. He does disappear in the mix sometimes, so getting him in some more space might help him show up more consistently. Again he has good lateral agility and 33 3/8’ arms. If these two guys are not here Parcells might look to see if Gosder Cherilus is still available for RT, which he might not be, or for an ILB like Cliff Avril, Jared Meyo, or Curtis Lofton if any are there.

    Round 3 – Duane Brown:
    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...php?pyid=11685
    In Brown the Fins get a player who should excel at RT. Brown played last year at LT, where he struggled a bit especially early. However, the two before that he was a solid RT for VT. Coming from a program like VT, we know Brown knows how to run block. Brown is one of those guys who won’t wow you with power, or the sweet feet of a LT, but he gets the job done. He is just a solid prospect at RT IMO. He will struggle with speed rushers a little, but isn’t that what OT’s struggle with anyways? The fact that Brown has played some LT is helpful, in that he will be probably asked to switch to the left side if Carey goes down. If Brown is gone, we might reach a little and grab John Greco, who we have shown a lot of interest in. But IMO he might be better suited at G than RT, but Parcells just likes tough guys there. He wants a RT who is tough, physical and powerful and both Brown and Greco are just that. If for some reason neither is here we might look to grab Charles Godfrey, this is of course assuming we never drafted Cason either. Godfrey is a strong, speedy, physical corner who can cover most guys. He does need some technique work, but is solid, even on ST.

    Round 4 – Jeremy Zuttah:
    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...php?pyid=33570
    Zuttah, in my opinion will be asked to move inside, where he can use his 35 reps in the bench to move DT’s instead of DE’s. Zuttah is another tough, hardnosed guy who won’t win any dancing competitions, but he will knock the snot out of you. Rutgers doesn’t like passing, ask Ray Rice. Zuttah was big part of his running success and should be a viable option for us. Being that was a OT he should fit the mold of tall, long and mobile that BP seems to covet. If Zuttah is gone, we make look to Donald Thomas as a replacement. If we don’t go offensive line here, I think this will be a prime time for Parcells to draft a stack and shed type LB. Phillip Wheeler, Beau Bell come to mind but really this draft is weak on ILB for our needs IMO. There are some OLB that could kick inside such as Ezra Butler or Brian Kehl. We could also look at Tyvon Branch as aproject at CB aswell.

    Round 6 – Caleb Campbell:
    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...php?pyid=55391
    Let’s be honest, at this point I’m just guessing like the rest of you. Campbell is tough and has a nose for the ball, and seems to have good character. If Campbell isn’t there I personally would like to take flier on Jack Ikewuono, who is injured, but was considered a pretty good prospect before the injury. I could see him lasting this long because of it. We found Rodrique Wright this way, and it wouldn’t hurt here either. Andre Guillon might be nice fit as a DE too at this juncture, he’s need a lot of work but who doesn’t here. The QB position could be addressed here with the addition of Kevin O’Connell, or Stuart Brink. Both of whom are nice developmental guys who have some upside IMO.

    Round 7 – Mike Gibson:
    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...php?pyid=72877
    A versatile guy who can play several positions, and considering our needs along the O-line a guy like this can’t hurt. He will most likely be on the interior in the pro game. After this it really becomes fill in the blank here, as almost anyone left is possible.


    Now that that is finished, please hack away at me and my skewed logic. I know most of this is probably wish wash to some, but I hope at least I’ve provided a handy draft chart for all the Parcells history buffs. I realize that some will question why there isn’t more of this position drafted or less of this one. But, that is why I said I wanted to leave something for you the reader to decipher. It is my mock draft, no one else’s, and hopefully you might use some of the info to make yours, or include in your discussions regarding football.


    Extension:
    I’m just kicking stones here, but I was looking at my write up of Parcells’ Drafting History (1993 – 2006), and it occurred to me that the numbers could be extended to give an even more informed view of what Parcells might be thinking. In this case, I think it would be worthwhile for me to examine what Parcells was doing in his previous drafts. I like tendencies, simply because everyone has them. No matter who you are you all have routines, and paradigms of daily operation. You go the same way to work most mornings, you drink the same coffee etc. Now, people will say those are habits, and they are. However within those habits are tendencies; does a person drink coffee in the morning or the afternoon is an example. How about does that same person drink more on the first Tuesday of every month because of a monthly budget meeting? I find tendencies fun because you can rely on them. Over time these tendencies are so normal they are almost instinctual, tenets of existence. Or, as we say about old people sometimes: “They are set in their ways”. Married people usually can have an idea of what their spouse will say or do in certain instances before they happen. It’s also what leads to monotony, if left completely unfettered.
    In football, coach’s tendencies are like pots of gold. Find one that no one else has seen in your next opponent; you are God for the week. Coaches are taught to find, examine and exploit their opponents’ tendencies to the point where he dies by his own hand. That is tactical football. I’m doing that with this draft I think, or at least in my convoluted mind it seems that way. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, or that is what insane men have said when they hold their failed attempts at destiny in their hands. Sorry, got a little side tracked……………
    For this installment of the Conuficus mind trip we will look at what Parcells’ did in each round. What did he do with his first round picks over his coaching career? A simple question like this was at the heart of my first examination, and hopefully it is here. In this examination I will mainly stay to the overall picture, as dealing with each team has been done before. Also in such an instance examination of the previous regime’s actions should be done. What I’m really looking for here is what Parcells does round by round, are there any tendencies he has regardless of team. I have shown Parcells’ versatility and adaptability in my previous examination, or at least I think I did. Well, now that you know what I’m trying to do, let’s get into it.
    This will be laid out as 5 of 10 total picks……….5/10 = 50% (same as before)

    Round 1: 10 total picks
    2/10 on offense = 20%.......................8/10 on defense = 80%
    By position:
    1 QB – 1/10 = 10% 1 ILB – 1/10 = 10%
    1 WR – 1/10 = 10% 4 OLB – 4/10 = 40% (half of all picks in total 5/10)
    2 CB – 2/10 = 20%
    1 DE – 1/10 = 10%

    As you can see Parcells favors both one side and one position above all else here. Such an overwhelming majority does not happen by chance over this period. In this round OLB and CB’s would be the most highly valued by the numbers presented.

    Round 2: 13 total picks

    8/13 on offense = 61.5%.....................5/13 on defense = 38.5%

    By position:

    2 WR – 2/13 = 15.37% 1 DE – 1/13 = 7.68%
    1 TE – 1/13 = 7.68% 1 DT – 1/13 = 7.68%
    1 RB – 1/13 = 7.68% 2 ILB – 2/13 = 15.37%
    2 OT – 2/13 = 15.37% 1 SS – 1/13 = 7.68%
    1 G – 1/13 = 7.68%
    1 C – 1/13 = 7.68%

    Here we can see that Parcells begins to equalize his preferences by favoring the offense more. Here the trend seems to be that if it an offensive player it will be either an O-lineman (30.74% overall when positions are combined), or WR. If there is a defensive player taken, the D-line and ILB take preference over all other positions. However, the O-line is an overwhelming favorite here. Now before everyone clamors for Cherilus at #32,………the highest O-line was ever taken was #38 – C, Al Johnson, otherwise if one was taken it was done in the 50+ range. #57 might be the more likely choice for an O-lineman here.

    Round 3: 12 total picks

    6/12 on offense = 50%.......................6/12 on defense = 50%

    By position:

    1 WR – 1/12 = 8.33% 1 DT – 1/12 = 8.33%
    1 TE – 1/12 = 8.33% 1 DE – 1/12 = 8.33%
    1 RB – 1/12 = 8.33% 1 ILB – 1/12 = 8.33%
    2 G – 2/12 = 16.66% 2 CB – 2/12 = 16.66%
    1 C – 1/12 = 8.33% 1 FS – 1/12 = 8.33%

    In this round Parcells is right down the middle, which is interesting. To me it shows that he might be looking for value, or to try and fill a need here. In the two previous rounds, I think he shows a serious disposition to a premeditated plan. I think the O-line as a whole is the way he goes offensively (25% if you combine the interior lineman, which in itself is a tendency). On the defensive side it appears he might look to fill out the defensive backfield as a group. On the whole it should be pointed out that Parcells doesn’t draft many safeties period.

    Round 4: 16 total picks

    8/16 on offense = 50%.......................8/16 on defense = 50%

    By position:

    2 WR – 2/16 = 12.5% 2 DT – 2/16 = 12.5%
    1 TE – 1/16 = 6.25% 3 DE – 3/16 = 18.75%
    2 RB – 2/16 = 12.5% 1 LB – 1/16 = 6.25%
    1 OT – 1/16 = 6.25% 1 CB – 1/16 = 6.25%
    1 G – 1/16 = 6.25% 1 SS – 1/16 = 6.25%
    1 C – 1/16 = 6.25%

    In this round Parcells goes right down the middle again in terms of offense defense, although further examination shows glaring tendencies here. On the offensive side of the ball Parcells will look to add some skill help, either WR, or RB,…..but skill guys will get the looks here. On the defensive side we can see Parcells really like to get some D-linemen, and in particular DE’s. It is interesting that most “big” DE’s that don’t possess great pass rushing skills, or speed off the edge fall to round 3-4, aka “the middle rounds”. And, here we are ready to grab them up. It is also telling that OLB is valued so highly, yet the D-linemen who tie up the O-linemen are left until here to be found. Is Glenn Dorsey reading this?……………..Sorry Glenn.

    Round 5: 13 total picks

    7/13 on offense = 54%.......................4/13 on defense = 30.84%.....2/13 on ST = 15.42

    By position:

    3 TE – 3/13 = 23.13% 1 DT – 1/13 = 7.71%
    1 OT – 1/13 = 7.71% 1 LB – 1/13 = 7.71%
    3 G – 3/13 = 23.13% 1 CB – 1/13 = 7.71%
    1 FS – 1/13 = 7.71%

    In this round it appears that Parcells again favors the offense here, although special teams enter in as the anomaly usually present somewhere in a numerical analysis. Paging “The One”,………sorry wrong musing. If the pick is for the offense Parcells will either take an interior lineman or TE. On the defensive side he will spread the picks out throughout the defense.

    Round 6: 18 total picks

    By position:

    11/18 on offense = 61%......................7/18 on defense = 39%

    1 QB – 1/18 = 5.55% 2 DT – 2/18 = 11.10%
    3 WR – 3/18 = 16.65% 1 DE – 1/18 = 5.55%
    1 TE – 1/18 = 5.55% 1 LB – 1/18 = 5.55%
    2 OT – 2/18 = 11.10% 3 CB – 3/18 = 16.65%
    1 G – 1/18 = 5.55%
    3 RB – 3/18 = 16.65%

    Well do I have to say it,…..he like the offense once again. However, he will look to get a WR, RB and then O-lineman again. On the defensive side he appears to be after D-lineman and CB’s. I am really noticing that Parcells not matter what will take lineman, no matter which side of the ball it is. He likes to build the interior of his football team. Such Mantra is built on the old school style of football. It is amazing however that so many teams neglect it over the long haul, whilst teams like the Eagles constantly draft lineman and they remain competitive over the long haul. Can anyone name a Eagle WR other than TO over the last 8 years,…..I struggling after Reggie Brown.

    Round 7:15 total picks

    9/15 on offense = 60%.......................6/15 on defense = 40%

    By position:

    1 QB – 1/15 = 6.66% 1 DT – 1/15 = 6.66%
    1 WR – 1/15 = 6.66% 1 DE – 1/15 = 6.66%
    2 TE – 2/15 = 13.32% 1 LB – 1/15 = 6.66%
    2 OT – 2/15 = 13.32% 3 CB – 3/15 = 19.98%
    1 G – 1/15 = 6.66%
    2 C – 2/15 = 13.32%

    Again Parcells favors the offense, and really tries to grab O-lineman here. 33% of the total picks are O-lineman. He’s trying to get guys he sees with potential, that he can mold here. It is interesting that he does it here. I almost think BP does this here to stop his FA prospects from getting snatched up by others. No competition here. On defense he will look for a diamond in the rough for the defensive backfield, and again, not many safeties.

    Now after going by the numbers based on round by round tendencies I thought I should update my Mock Draft accordingly. By the way the guest pass for the links I used before has expired, so most won’t be able to see them, so I figured you guys could look them up, if you didn’t already know them off by heart. What, you think I’m going to do all the work all the time?

    Updated Mock Draft:

    1). C. Long – DE/OLB – Do I have to do this again? No………thanks guys you are nice.

    2a). James Hardy – WR – I had said that I think Cherilus is a reach here and I still think so. If Hardy is here I think they really look at him. Antoine Cason might be the only other contender, though the numbers don’t agree. I’ll have to have him as personal choice. The numbers I presented in this text would say that I should put Jared Mayo, ILB – Tennessee here. He might be the Parcells pick here as an ILB, which he does prefer if the pick is defensive.

    2b). Duane Brown – OT – Previously I had him taken in the 3rd Round, but I think after seeing the numbers reflect that the most D-lineman are taken in Round 4 Langford dropped off the Mock. I also had Dre Moore here, whom I love to death. As a two gap 3-4 DE, he is perfect, and I’ve said it before, many, many times. If they do take a DL here, which they rarely do, my personal preference is Moore at this stage. Overall however the numbers dictate that I put Brown, or an OT here.

    3). John Greco – OT – Toledo – The afore mentioned Brown was here, and Greco was listed as replacement. Now, after looking into it further, and seeing that Greco was a LT in college, thus making his move to LG that much easier. Easier that is if you believe in tendencies like CK has mentioned until he is blue in the face. Wait………….someone said tendency……hhhmmmm. I also had Charles Godfrey here and I really think he’d be the guy if we went defense. Once again the D-lineman will probably come next.

    4). DeMario Pressley – DT – Pressley fits the mold of what we want in terms of size, although he is a guy who will need a fire lit under him. He, like Moore has long arms (Pressley 34”) and the body type. He might not the perfect fit at DE but his size, and the way he plays make him perfect for the DE position we need. I think that being on this team, with the guys we have coaching, getting under someone’s skin shouldn’t be too hard. Carlton Powell might be a guy to consider here, but needs to gain some weight. We have been paying a great deal of attention to this guy however, and wouldn’t be surprised to hear his name here. Tyvon Branch is a guy I personally like. Also if we go away from Hardy early, James Hubbard would be a nice guy to look at here.

    6a). Jack Ikegwuono – CB – If there is any better value at CB here I don’t know where it is. He is injured but before the injury he was considered a very good prospect. He is tough, and will tackle the run and I’d really like to take a flier on him here. The numbers say I should have a RB or WR here, but if we take Hardy early, I can’t see us going back to the well again. Besides, the numbers do say that if the pick is defensive, it will be a CB. Ikegwuono could heal and probably be ready to contribute by the end of the season. Or , we can place him on IR and basically bring him along like Rodrique Wright.

    6b). Letroy Guion – DT – Here is another guy who fits the mold of the tall, long and agile DE we need. Guion is considered a 3 technique inside, but he may have more value as a pass rusher in the 3-4 from the DE spot. He may never become more than a wave player, but depth I something we need on the D-line aswell.

    7a). Mike Gibson – OG – Gibson is versatile and can play most positions on the O-line, to me that means he has value here. Thadeus Coleman might be a guy to look at here as well, we have contact with him.

    7b). Sam Keller – QB – he has all the tools, but he may never get it together enough to be more than a backup. We need someone to groom, and with the talent he has, he would be worth the flier.


    Well, there you go. Most of the alternates are the same, as in my previous Mock Draft, so I kind of just glanced over them. Once again these numbers are open to interpretation by the reader, and are not to be de facto in use. I know this too will ruffle some feathers, but hey good debate is healthy. I hope you enjoy this as much as I did putting it together, I think it is very revealing. Thanks for taking the time to read it.”

    Now the real draft:

    1. Jake Long
    2. Phillip Merling
    2a. Chad Henne
    3. Kendal Langford
    4. Shawn Murphy
    6a. Jalen Parmele
    6b. David Thomas
    7a. Lex Hilliard
    7b. Lionel Dotson

    Also add Akin Ayodele and Anthony Fasano to that draft class and in all we have 11 new players to the roster, 4 on defense – 7 on offense. So much for the notion that BP is an defensive stalwart.

    So, now that we learned that I have absolutely no idea what I’m doing in regards to the draft I think I should examine where I went wrong.

    Firstly, the drafting of Jake Long is a staggering thing for BP and Co. to do on many levels. It is the first time that an O-lineman was taken in the first round by any BP regime, even when he didn’t have the final say as in NE. Looking back on the draft I am glad we took Jake when we did, as it was apparent that the hot position(s) were the O-lineman. The fact that people were willing to trade up to get guys like Sam Baker should say everything about the climate of the first round. Drafting Jake #1 overall, also shows that this regime’s offseason was a direct marker as to the way the team went about the draft. Now obviously the task at hand is not finished, but plainly the task was to become competitive upfront on both sides of the ball. What is finished is the fact that the fans could see these two areas needed to improve for the last 2 years, in terms of young depth. Having veterans is great, but having no youth behind them is downright treacherous.

    When I said the offseason gave direct markers towards the way of the draft comes down to hindsight - which coincidentally, is the best type of sight. We added just about every LB we could in FA, especially those who can be solid contributors on ST, and man the middle of the defense. Now, those would say that BP and Co. need and like to garner OLB’s. Whilst it is true that the 3-4 does require OLB’s to be truly successful, the ILB are just as important for different reasons. And coincidentally BP and Co. don’t have a problem acquiring guys who can play both if necessary, and or through the draft. I mean they did draft Bobby Carpenter didn’t they? We addressed the WR position somewhat by acquiring Ernest Wilford, but after Ginn as well there is little to be truly excited about. Hagan has had two pedestrian seasons, and needs to step forward and be a legit 3rd option for the team this year. The team also addressed two of the bigger concerns of Dolphins fans last year; the secondary in terms of depth and a starter.

    The nay sayers will chime in and say “wait a minute, we didn’t sign one quality CB.” Yes that is true if your defense requires a top notch DB to get the job done. I would like to call attention the the fact that Andre Goodman played so little, and poorly when he did see action that if he is at least healthy we will see a marked improvement at the CB spot. In 2006, he had a great season – he wasn’t pro bowl level, but he was solid none the less and provided some good run support and coverage. Last year Lehan was forced into starting and he really wasn’t cut out for it IMO. He is a great slot guy, who can use his physical style of play to jam the typically smaller shiftier slot WR’s of the league. However, against the flanker he was just eaten up – no contest. To me he just doesn’t have that second gear, or the instincts to play out there all the time. The team did however sign a few depth players in Nathan Jones and Joey Thomas to add to the overall depth. Now after Lehan, Daniels is neither physical nor fast, and may be playing for his career. Also both Thomas and Jones are physical, and will help against the run. They are however a little raw and Jones may be tighter in the hips than you’d really like for a fulltime corner. Renaldo Hill however should not be glossed over for his ability to be versatile. He can cover some receivers because of his savvy, but he is neither a classic safety nor corner, but he should invaluable as the third safety on the field, or if Jason Allen doesn’t improve his deep half coverage skills – although I think he will get much, much better the more he is on the field. The fact that Hill can play that 3rd safety look gives us a great deal of versatility if we choose to do this. Essentially we could play a nickel 3-4 where we just substituteAllen physical hitting and ability to create turnovers both in coverage and against the run will be noticed.

    But the biggest thing the FO did for the secondary was to bring in safety help. Both for their prevalence and importance on ST, but to help with the fact that we had 8 different starting tandems back there. And since we have two potential starters/backup players in Bell and Hill coming back from year ending leg injuries, it was in my estimation smart move t bring in guys who might be able to help fill in opposite Jason Allen in Keith Davis and Cris Crocker and the like. These guys are not household names, but I don’t think they are as incapable of coverage as Cameron Worrell. Worrell was signed as a ST stalwart, but he was just average and was a known liability at S. The unfortunate thing is that he ended up being decent at neither, although his coverage did improve as the season wore on. Now Jason Allen IMO is really a big key to the defensive backfield. Allen really began to come on as the season progressed especially in terms of his run stopping ability. Against the run he brought both a physical style of play we haven’t had from the FS position for some time. Jason Allen also was one of the few players who consistenty tried to motivate both himself and teammates, by celebrating and showing emotion and fire. It may have seemed out of place on a losing team, but the fact it didn’t break him down mentally showed a great deal. He may be a vocal leader who plays though and will set a physical tone in the defensive backfield. And, when Allen started to see the field on a permanent basis the overall level of play by the defense rose slightly.

    Really Thomas and Jones are probably expected to supplant Daniels on the depth chart either before or during the early part of the season. Daniels lack of physical play and speed will not endear him to the new coaching staff. His intelligence will however, as well as his ability to find the football but really he isn’t a “stick your face in” type of player. Will Allen for example is to a great degree and plays bigger than he is.

    Finally, when addressing the secondary, one really can’t examine the problem without placing some of the blame at the feet of the defensive line. Taylor had 11, Porter had 5.5 and after that the next highest man was Matt Roth with 3, and in total we registered 30 sacks which truly, is not going to get the job done. To put that into perspective in 2006 we had 47 sacks, 2005 we had 49, and even when we went 2-14 we generated 36 sacks. In 2005 &2006 we averaged more than 1 sack more a game. Is it no wonder our CB’s appeared to be beaten more often than not? The opposing QB’s could stand back there all day and pick us apart. How many times did we just see a QB stand there and survey the field, completely unmolested? He didn’t have to move, just be patient as he knew given time someone would come open. Anyone who’s watched football knows there is no way for the DB’s to cover everyone for more than 3-4 seconds on average, and that might be a bit too high as well. Truly, if the QB gets that amount of time every time he drops back Joey Harrington will carve you to pieces. Now also consider the amount of times a CB was needed to stop the run as no one in the front 7 could seem to do it? Do you think that doesn’t wear down a corner? These are supposed to help support the run, not be the run stoppers. Being that involved, and seeing that many run plays will wear down, and thus slow down a corner’s ability to cover a WR.

    In essence my point could be said as:- the regime believes we have more talent at CB than the stats belie, and that the front 7 had to be improved.

    It may be worth considering that the FP decided that no matter what the front 7 needed to be enhanced and that after making some of the necessary adjustments the secondary could be tweaked and added to the following year. It has been said before that there are only so many that can be filled, and that doing so in the trenches is one the quickest ways to improve.

    If we analyze the information presented in the percentages breakdown that I did you’ll notice that for the years I covered, a BP regime never once drafted an O-lineman in the 1st round, or a QB in the 2nd. That stat truly is just amazing to me, never once until BP comes to help Miami does this occur. And let’s remember BP had the chance to draft Walter Jones and Orlando Pace and passed, whom are far better than Jake. Both would be considered better prospects when matched against Jake right now I would recon. However, the FO did stay somewhat true to the numbers by drafting Phillip Merling who, as I have said for a while now will probably be our ROLB within the next 2 years. I have debated that several times, and even mentioned the fact that he may be used as a elephant like position. From the numbers I presented it is easy to see that I the first round BP had spent 50% of all draft picks he ever had in that round on a OLB, and Merling who was drafted at #32, and IMO is a OLB for us. I’m not necessarily saying that I hit the nail on the head here, as I had us going for C.Long and getting the O-line later. Otherwise, the first two rounds of the draft were unlike any other that BP has had. I can think of several reasons for this; given the landscape of the NFL, taking an O-lineman in the draft is definitely more appealing than signing one in FA on many levels. Even though Jake got 10 mil +a season, is he really that far ahead of the curve for O-lineman? Alan Faneca just got over 8 mil a season, and he is 32 and is truly past his prime. Also given the state of the FA market for O-lineman, who exactly was there out there that made anyone say well, we’ll just forget about the draft. This draft had a plethora of first round talent at the OT position, some legit and some benefitted from the college game. Either way, the writing was on the wall for all to see in terms of the team needing an O-lineman or two or three. There were quite a few posters on here who lauded the “draft 3 to find 2” approach and they should feel justly vindicated.

    But, I think the trade that occurred the night before the draft, was key in opening up the #57 pick in my mind. Acquiring Ayodele, who upgrades our overall depth and brings a quality LB to the roster. If you look at what BP usually does in the 2nd round, he typically gets an ILB if he goes defense. Or BP looks to add an O-lineman if he goes offense. At least that is what the numbers say to me. But seeing as Jake had already been drafted, getting a LB who can switch both inside and out means that again another need is addressed. Getting Fasano meant that a TE like Martellus Bennett could be ignored in the 2nd round as well. So, really we just flip flopped the picks, we still looked for the components I highlighted, just in a different order. Looking at the talent pool in the draft it is easy to see why they went this way. The OLB class suitable for a 3-4 was a little weak this year to be honest. The best prospect – C. Long is a strong side player and not really what we need in terms of adding a pass rush. Others such as Harvey, Groves and Gholston all have issues from being too tall and playing upright, a bit of a reach in terms of strength at the POA, and just plain awful hand usage respectively. Taking one of these guys in the top 5 and doing a convert carries a great deal of risk for the investment. For my money Gholston has the biggest potential to be a bust from day one – he is just not fundamentally strong enough to succeed in the NFL. Getting a guy to convert later in the draft, at #32 or later was probably the better idea on many levels. It allowed us to focus on a problem area; the O-line early when we had the pick of the litter so to speak. By focusing on the O-line we also tapped into the deepest part of the draft in the 1st round. Doing so, is just sound risk management and evaluation to me. The pool was a lot weaker for OLB candidates, thus almost forcing our hand in many ways. Getting the most of the #1 pick in terms of value, cost, versus the overall talent pool by position coupled with need is truly a hard thing to do. Getting Merling at #32 really allowed the gamble to work. I say Gamble in terms of having a pass rush replacement for JT whilst we are shopping him. We were unlikely to get a decent DE in return, as it would just be a case of trading a young apple for an old one – never a good idea.

    I have mentioned in a previous post the importance of having a sound blocking TE who can handle a DE, and seal the edge if necessary. We are a run first team, which means we will need the TE to block first, and when we do pass, we will look to gain chunks of yardage when we do. We may check down a bit, but we are still gonna look deep.

    Once we get to the 3rd round I thought the draft would go back to order, but yet again it was as though the FO wanted to play flip flop. Historically BP and Co. look to get their DE’s in the 4th round by a wide margin (over 31% of all picks). I truly think we just got a little bit too cute for our own good. We traded down to acquire an extra pick only to see the guy we wanted taken in front of us. The same thing happened to Seattle and Mike Holmgren a few years earlier, when they traded back in the late first round only to NE jump ahead of them and get the TE Seattle wanted – Seattle ended up reaching for Jeremy Stevens when their selection came up. That is what happened to us I believe, we wanted John Greco and we watched as St. Louis took him ahead of us. So, what do we do, do we reach for a player? To me; yeah a little, but we still got good enough value. We needed a DE who provided some versatility and Langford fits the bill. There really wasn’t a great of deal of talent left at ILB, and NO I don’t think Dan Connor is a good fit. He needs protection, he will not handle an inside position in the 3-4 IMO, as he prefers to slide and run around blocks, rather than man up and take them on like we really require. And where we were in the 3rd round we probably would have reached a bit for Zuttah and I don’ think they projected him to the more pass savvy LG spot. Greco, and ex LT may have been much better suited for that role. Rather Zuttah probably would have played the RG which would have moved Smiley to LG which still adequate might not have made the best use of Smiley’s pulling prowess. So, we took a wait and see approach. Langford may have just allowed them to fill a need and not left them in a complete lurch in terms of still having front line positions to fill going into the 4th round. Having one front line position to fill is hard enough at that stage in the draft – let alone two. So, we got the DE and once again played flip flop.

    In the 4th round we moved up to endure we got a G candidate, and as predicted by many, many people it was an OT that would be moved inside. Also it was one of the most popular picks by mock draft authors on The Phins.com – Shawn Murphy. Usually in this round BP and Co. go after a DE prospect, or he might go after an O-lineman. Having gotten Langford the FO needed to fill another front line position, and seeing as only had 8 O-lineman actually on the roster it made sense to draft one sooner rather than later. Also missing out on their previous G prospect probably made them a little ancy, and they pulled the trigger on what was probably one of the bigger reaches at that stage of the draft. Realistically, Murphy probably should have gone a full round later, or at least at the tail end of the 4th round. But the numbers game, both historically and roster wise caught up with them and they got their man.

    The 6th round yielded a numerical hit on both levels. Both an O-lineman, and a RB which statistically accounted for just over 16% of all picks chosen in that round. (WR also had the same share – meaning there was a 48% chance of having one of those position selected. Now, looking back on the numbers I have to admit that either I didn’t see it, didn’t wish to see it, but for whatever reason, I omitted a RB from my mock. I figured that since we had Booker, Ricky and Brown that we were in actuality alright at the position. But in the 6th round RB should have been a legitimate candidate and I didn’t have it. Which, after consideration is a big flaw in this process, I didn’t do what I should have; I didn’t even have the position listed as an alternate. But actually this is the first round that numbers should have lead to an accurate mock.

    The 7th round actually produced a surprise numerically as Lex Hilliard was chosen, the first time a RB was taken to my knowledge. And, Jeff Ireland seems to have a habit of drafting DT/DE prospects in the 7th round. Choosing Dotson fits the trend he had with Dallas with Jay Ratliff.

    Now looking back I can say these things:

    My mocks did actually produce some interesting things thanks to following the numbers. Firstly I actually had the split right in my second Mock in terms of 6 of 9 selections being interior positions. I did get the part about drafting an offensive skill player in the 2nd Round, although the position and # were off. WR was a pretty good assumption based on the numbers if we went offense, and it would have filled a need in terms of help in the passing game. Many others had a TE being taken, so the there was obviously a trend to believe the overall train of thought regarding an offensive skill player being chosen in the second round. I did see us taking 3 O-lineman, two of them being interior players. I also had us taking two DE prospects for the 3-4 and a OLB…..which if you see Merling as I do then it works. Otherwise to that perspective I will be flawed in terms of position projection.

    I can also say that I missed on the layout of the draft in terms of many of the rounds the positions were taken in, and the players taken. I was way, way off on some of them, so I will have to try and do better next time I do this that’s for sure. I guess I’ll have to start boning up on the needs and such earlier on this upcoming year. I also thought that we would add some help to the secondary on day two, in some fashion as I had us taking a CB as an alternate several times.

    To be honest I am quite happy with the overall results of this little exercise, and I will try to get a little more accurate the next time in some of the areas I was left wanting. Still it was fun and I hope above all else that I at least gave a good deal of information for to digest and have fun with yourselves. Thanks for reading the dissection of Conuficus’s spare time, and see you next time.
     
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