I will bump this older (but interesting ) thread title. I think Luck's college career made him worthy of being a number 1 overall draft choice, and during his time with Colts he does play like a legitimate NFl starting QB.
But, like most all QB's, some protection , a talented roster of players, effective coaching etc... is also needed for the team to produce wins.
Remember, Elway's professional play was not especially good until Dan Reeves was ousted and Mike Shanahan took over as the Broncos head coach.

 

He's not a bust overrated sure, but definatly not a bust.

 

Bumping this because it has the potential to be entertaining.

 

And people think our OL has been bad ....

 

I think for football , OL is just about everything. Lots of QB's are productive behind a good OL. Without a good OL, no QB can do anything.
At Stanford Luck played behind an awesome OL. For most all of his pro career Andrew Luck has been scrambling to avoid the pass rush.

 

If he's not very good I'll take not very good all day.

 

It's not just the bad OL. Its a bad OL and a coach who still insists on running a down the field passing game.

 

Nope. It's Luck.

 

Yeah I know.

He just had a damn good year and was playing with a shoulder injury for two years? Pretty impressive.

Let's be happy Gase is here and didn't get his hands on Luck who is stuck with Pagano for the foreseeable future

 

Excuses. He is what he is.

 

So far, I've seen injuries, o-line, and poor coaching for reasons as to why Luck has nearly the same passer rating as RT.


Waaaaaiiiitttt a minute..where I have seen that before?

:glare:

 

Yeah, he's a guy who has thrown for 40 TDs in a season, over 30 twice. Tanny has never been as good as Luck has. Luck has had lower lows, that is true dragging down his rating. Will Tanny ever hit 40 TDs? 4700 yards? We're fawning over his last stretch of the year starting in Pitt where he was averaging 220-230 ypg.

That's Alex Smith territory. He was Alex Smith with more TDs and more INTs.

 

No, despite injuries, oline, and poor coaching he threw 31 TDs this year, 40 Tds another. 4700 yards, 4200 yards. 2.4 INT rate vs. 3.1 this past year.

As bas as Philbin and Lazor was, Lazor decided in 2014 the downfield passing game wasn't working and changed it, producing Tanny's best year. Pagano continues to stick with the downfield attack despite the bad oline, and his QB suffering an injured shoulder, lacerated kidney, and more.

Despite playing on a shoulder that needed surgery, with bad coaching, he produced better in 2016 than Tannehill EVER has in his career. Nobody is making excuses. You don't need to make excuses for the better player.

By the way, has Tanny ever played through an injury like that? I can't recall. The only one I can think of is his knee and he didn't play.

 

Wrong. Andrew Luck threw 40 TD's once and over 30 TD's once. He also threw 23,23,and 15. RT never threw less than 24 except in his rookie season.

RT has had over 4,000 yards twice out of his 4 full playing seasons.

Luck averages about 30 more yards per game.
Averages 1 more TD per 100 attempts.
Luck has a higher INT% than RT and he completes passes at a lower rate than RT.


They have played nearly identical, hence their passer rating having about a 1 point difference.

 

So ... he's thrown it more than 30 twice.

I'm pretty sure he just threw 19.

Notice you say he has a higher INT% but don't cite it. Nor did you cite the TD%.

5.0% TDs vs 4.0% TDs.
2.6% INTs vs 2.5% INTs.

Their INT rates are remarkably similar but Luck throws more TDs. Put it this way, if Luck had Ryan's INT rate, or vice versa, it would result in a difference of ... 2.6 INTs (either way) over 5 years.

But if Ryan had Lucks' TD rate it would result in 26 TDs over those same 5 years. So 5 extra TDs for .5 extra INTs each year, for five years.

Would you take that? Of course you would. That's why you mention the fact Luck's INT is higher, without presenting the numbers ;)

 

Tannehill will never have the highlights Luck has had. He will probably be more consistent, but that means he'll be a consistently slightly above average QB. I think he might crack the top 10 in his best seasons but will usually be closer to the 14-17th ranked QB.


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Do you not read what you're replying to?

First, he threw 19 in an injury shortened season. Although, his TD% was 4.9 on the season. Luck's career average is 5. (And just so you don't have a conniption, RT's is 4 for his career.)

When I wrote that Luck threw 1 more TD per 100 attempts did you not understand it? Luck has TD% of 5 and RT has a TD% of 4. That's 1 more per 100 attempts.

The numbers I posted were from memory. Hence the "about 30 more yards" etc.

And once again, if you want to just cherry pick certain things because you, once again, have a man crush on another team's QB be my guest. Just don't expect others to slobber along side of you. lol

The facts are...Luck and Tannehill have nearly identical passer ratings for their entire careers. Passer rating, if you don't know, encompasses ALL of their stats. At least meaningful stats.

One day either QB may have a better o-line, coach, etc and put up even better numbers, but until one starts pulling away from the other I'll call it like it is... Which is, for the small average of ~$6 million more per season, the Colts are getting the same play from their QB as the Dolphins. haha

 

Now I realize that you and jdang would only consider doing such things for QB's on other teams, but for once just play along.

If you take away the first 2-3 games of the season (I'm only suggesting that because it was a new offense etc) RT had number that put him in the top 5-6 of QB's.

 

I don't understand what you're getting at.

You just made a post not too long ago about cherry picking. When I see a full season from Tannehill as good as some Luck has had, I'll have no choice but to give him credit. I stand by my claims that he'll likely coast around 14-17 for his career with his best years maybe cracking the lower end of the top 10 but he'll be more consistent, if that.


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I think his stats are misleading