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AnLGPs Offense Guide

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by anlgp, Jan 27, 2009.

  1. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    prelude:

    The stats for players were taken from NFL.com
    The stats for linemen were taken from http://hosted.stats.com/fb/teamstats.asp?yr=2009&tm=15&btnGo=Go&type=rosters there.
    The opinions following the stats are my own. Agree if you want. Disagree if you want. The errors if there are any are mine. All stats are regular season stats ONLY.

    This has taken me quite some time to put together so please treat it with respect.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    A Statistical Outlook Of The Miami Dolphins Season & Draft Needs: OFFENSE

    During the regular season the Miami Dolphins were ranked 12th overall on offense. They had a better passing offense than a running offense by one spot (10th and 11th, respectively).

    Quarterback:

    Stats
    Chad Pennington was ranked #2 in passing yards and completed 321 out of 476. He started 16 games. He has a 19-7 touchdown to interception ratio.

    Chad Henne started no games and had a 7 for 12 for 67 yards and an average of 5.6 yards.

    Analysis
    With the Dolphins recently drafting Chad Henne this is a position that they can wait to see if they have the right pick in place. Henne had a nice pre season and a decent drive against the Cardinals but it's still too early to tell whether or not he's the next Franchise Quarterback.

    Running Back:

    Stats
    Ronnie Brown was ranked #25th overall in rushing. He started 13 games. He had 214 attempts for 916 yards on an average of 4.3 yards per attempt. He had 10 touchdowns, several of which came from the now infamous Wildcat package.

    Ricky Williams was ranked #41st overall in rushing. He started 3 games. He had 160 attempts for 659 an average of 4.1 yards per attempt. He had 4 touchdowns.

    Patrick Cobbs was tied for #141 overall in rushing. He started 2 games. He had 12 attempts for 88 yards on an average of 7.3 yards per attempt. He had one touchdown.

    Total Stats
    386 attempts for 1,663 total yards
    15 Tds

    Analysis
    The Dolphins have a monster of a backfield. Every back they have averaged over 4 yards per carry, with Cobbs having an astounding 7.3. There are a lot of teams in the league that would love to have this many running backs who can pull the load equally on their team. I look for the NFL to be a 3 running back system soon & the Dolphins are pretty set at this position right now. The only aging player the Dolphins have there is Ricky Williams and he seems to indicate that there's still gas left in the tank.

    Fullback:

    Stats
    Lousaka Polite had 23 attempts for an average of 3.7 yards per attempt.

    Analysis
    Mr. Third Down. Lou Polite was the go to guy on third down to gain the several inches needed to move the chains. He can catch out of the backfield and did a decent job of blocking the QB. This is another position I feel the Phins are pretty set at.

    Tight End:

    Stats
    Anthony Fasano started 16 games and had 34 receptions for 454 yards for average of 13 yards and had 7 Tds.

    David Martin started 7 games had 31 receptions for 451 yards for an average of 14 yards and had 3 Tds

    Total Stats
    65 receptions for 905 yards
    10 Tds

    Analysis
    With Fasano and Martin being 24 and 29 respectively and gaining a total of over 900 yards and 10 Touchdowns I don't think TE will be a priority in the off season.

    Left Tackle:

    Stats
    Jake Long started all 16 games. He had 5 penalties for 40 yards and gave up 2 sacks for 15.5 yards.

    Analysis
    The Dolphins have their franchise left tackle. I honestly can't even say if they need depth at the position because except for an injury against the Patriots where he went out for a few plays Long was in every game. His penalties and sacks can be chalked up to rookie mistakes for now but I would like to see the penalties drop at least. I can remember one of these sacks very vividly where it seemed like he missed an assignment. The other I'm not sure of.

    Total Yards Lost:
    55.5

    Left Guard:

    Stats
    Justin Smiley started 12 games but was placed on IR. He had 2 penalties for 7 yards and gave up 2.5 sacks for a loss of 6 yards. Andy Alleman started 4 games in his place. He had 4 penalties for 20 yards and gave up 1.5 sacks for 7.5 yards.

    Analysis
    People complained when Smiley went down but statistically speaking it doesn't make too much sense. The penalties are the biggest thing to me because of the amount of yards. Other than that while Smiley gave up more sacks it was for less yards than Alleman gave up. Shawn Murphy is a ways off.

    Total Yards Lost
    40.5
    Center:

    Stats
    Samson Satele started all 16 games. He had 4 penalties for 30 yards and gave up 4.5 sacks for 31.75 yards.

    Analysis
    Durable. Satele had an injury. His numbers really stand out to me because he is the player that gave up 2/3rds of the total sack yard loss and on top of that he gave up 30 yards in penalties as well. The only thing that I can say that is decent to combat that is that despite being injured he started all 16 games.

    Total Yards Lost
    61.75

    Right Guard:

    Stats
    Donald Thomas started 1 game and was placed on IR after the season opener. He had no penalties and gave up no sacks. Ike Ndukwe started 15 games in his place. Ike had 6 penalties for 40 yards and gave up 1 sack for 5.50 yards.

    Analysis
    The reports out of training camp were that Thomas was a steal where we drafted him. This is true based upon his stats. Of course he only played one game but it was a solid performance. I'm almost sure if he had played more games he would've been called for a penalty or given up a sack so this is a bit misleading. Ndukwe did a decent job not letting opponents into the backfield and gave up only one sack for 5.5 yards.

    Total Yards Lost
    45.5

    Right Tackle:

    Stats
    Vernon Carey started all 16 games. He had 2 penalties for 20 yards and gave up 4.5 sacks for 27 yards.

    Analysis
    His durability can't be contested. Carey wants top RT money. If he is kept it shores the bookend LT, RT on the Phins oline for years to come. If he walks then Miami has another hole to fill.

    Total Yards Lost
    47

    Total Oline Stats:

    23 Penalties Overall for a loss of 157 yards.
    16 Sacks Overall for a loss of 93.25

    For a total loss of 250.25 yards

    Total Oline Analysis:

    23 total penalties all year is great. There's a saying that 100 yards in field position costs you so many points. 250 yards is a lot of “hidden yards” to be losing in a season. Donald Thomas and Justin Smiley are guesses at this point with their durability and Satele may or may not be good enough to play at Center. If Carey walks we'll need a RT. I suspect to look for the phins to pick up either guard or a C during FA or the Draft. Maybe a guy like Unger who can play all positions. Age isn't really a concern, the oldest Olineman is 27.

    Wide Receiver:

    Stats
    Davone Bess started 6 games and had 54 receptions for 554 yards and an average of 10.3 yards and 1 TD.

    Analysis
    Bess seemed to have great hands and was able to move quick enough to find the holes in zones to catch passes from Pennington. He has decent size to be able to play againsti man coverage. He'll never be a vertical threat but he will move the chains slowly and surely.

    Stats
    Greg Camarillo started 11 games and had 55 receptions for 613 yards and an average of 11.1 yards and 2 touchdowns

    Analysis
    Mr. Clutch until he had his injury. Camarillo was the go to guy for sure first downs. He was the one you'd want to throw to in the end zone because you knew he'd come up with the ball.

    Stats
    Ted Ginn, Jr. started 14 games and had 56 receptions for 790 yards at an average of 14.1 yards and had 2 Tds. He fumbled the ball 5 times.

    Analysis
    Ginn is a vertical threat. He has the most yards out of any of the receivers and I really think that's due to his ability to stretch the field and his ability to dance around defenders and get YAC. When your fumbles outweigh your Tds there's a problem. He'll have to get more Tds and less fumbles if he's going to want to stay on the roster long term. It's interesting to note that while Camarillo had 55 receptions and 613 yards and Ginn had 56 receptions but had 790 yards.

    Stats
    Brandon London started 1 game and had 3 receptions for 30 yards at an average of 10 yards and no touchdowns.

    Analysis
    While his stats aren't too impressive he has the size of a prototypical WR and at 24 years old is young. He has already won a superbowl with the NYG and has the size to be a threat in the red zone. He is cheaper than

    Ernest Wilford started 0 games had 3 receptions for 25 yards on an average of 8 yards and no touchdowns.

    Analysis
    He's most likely gone. I'll take the cap hit.

    Total WR Stats:


    171 receptions for 2012 yards
    5 Tds

    WR Corps Analysis

    I think the Dolphins are still lacking a true #1 Receiver. If I had to pick a diamond in the rough out of this group (despite his stats) it would be Brandon London. He has the typical size you want in a WR. If I had to pick one based on stats it would either be Ginn/Camarillo/Bess. I'm really not sure how I feel about one of the three of them being a “true” #1, though. I think the FO will be content with these guys for now, if only because of the last FA blunder they've had and more pressing needs in the off-season.

    BIGGEST NEED ON OFFENSE:

    The Dolphins need to see if Satele can play Center. If they're comfortable that he can't they need to get one. Guards are also an issue simply because Smiley has an injury history and Thomas went on IR shortly after the season ended. He is still unproven. I know someone who has talked to him and he says that he is ready and rarin' for the '09 season to start. RT is an issue if Carey walks. Hopefully he will take the hometown discount or both sides will reach a mutual agreement. Any position on the line could probably use a good bit of depth. I don't think they'll go the WR, HB, FB, QB, LT route. Anything else is fair game both for starting and backup positions.
    --------------------------------------------------

    Defense Coming Soon!
     
    tinytown50, fins1, Onehondo and 23 others like this.
  2. King Felix

    King Felix Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    good read. coulda swore i was in club level

    i would love to trade satele and get unger *drools*
     
    Rocky Raccoon and anlgp like this.
  3. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    nice job compiling all the stats steve. must have taken you forever. nice read, its nice to be able to look at how our guys performed, and how they compare with the league.

    Hurry up with that defense... i see you started a few minutes ago... you should have it done by... 11:30 right? :lol:

    thanks!
     
    anlgp likes this.
  4. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    Nice job Anal Gap.
     
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  5. late again

    late again Senior Member

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    Nice analysis, brother. Spent some time on that one didn't ya?
    Putting all that together the way you have can be helpful when trying to gain some perspective on our needs for next year.
    My own thoughts are, like you, I can see us waving bye-bye to Wilford. But I can also see us bringing in another mid tier WR via FA.
    I also believe we will address our OL through FA as well as the draft.
    For now.........
    waiting on your defense analysis.:up:
     
    anlgp likes this.
  6. The Aqua Crush

    The Aqua Crush New Member

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    Great write up Anlgp

    I think you pin pointed the needs on offense this offseason quite well. And i couldn't agree more about London being the diamond in the rough for the WR corp. If he turns his size into a true wideout, it would vastly give our WR corp a dynamic their lacking to be elite, not sure he can be that guy but I wouldn't rule it out. And the bess analysis in my opinion could be noted that i think his confidence and ability to get into space after the catch and really up his YAC will be one of his strengths next season, he showed flashes of quick burst after the catch and elusiveness and I think that will only get better now that he's adjusted to the speed of the nfl. I'm really excited to see him turn a 4 yard catch into a 40 yard gain in 2009, i really think that will be his "thing".

    I think Satele is fine however. People seem a little dissapointed in him but I would far from write him off. If he had his starting guards beside him all year his stats would have been better, and our running up the middle would have been better too. I think for the oline we need depth at both guards, big, nasty guys. If Carey wants top money it would be tought to give it to him. I think he's good, just not top 5 money good. We would have to adress that in one of the first three picks i would guess if carey decides he needs to be too rich. If he does take a good contract and wants to stay i would be very happy as he's a good player.

    Lookin forward to your DEFENSE analysis.
     
    anlgp likes this.
  7. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    Thanks.

    Defense is done it's only 1:11am. :D

    Thanks, dork. :)

    I could see us picking up a WR via FA, too, I just think there are more pressing needs. We have a lot of young guys at the position and it's not like they're getting older or have hit their ceiling. In a few years if they're still producing like they are it may be an issue but it's not currently to me.

    I think they will take a while evaluating Satele. He played all 16 games with an injury and that could have been his fallout. I agree about the guards and believe I noted it in the piece? If I didn't then I agree :up: but the only thing is only one of them (Smiley) is a proven vet. Thomas looks like the steal of the decade but it's a bit too early to be sure. And if Carey decides to walk I have to rethink my whole philosophy on who we would draft because I think us having the LT/RT spots locked up this year helped the inside guys that much more.

    Thanks for reading guys hope you appreciate the D one. It's up now :up:
     
  8. HULKFish

    HULKFish Artist and Scribe

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    Well it sounds as if you aren't completely sold on Satele either... You basically said that he is better if you put better players around him meaning he needs help. I agree with that. He is a descent blocker but not the mauler we need at C.

    Carey is going to want too much I'm sure so hopefully we can find an adequate replacement.

    WR I have to say London should get a good shot in TC and the preseason.
     
  9. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    im not beind a smartass.....and i defintley am not questioning this work....but can someone answer how smiley had 2 penalties for 7 yards?!?!?!?!?!?
     
  10. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    I don't know it seemed kind of strange to me. The site says they are 2 false start penalties, but isn't that 5 yards a piece?
     
  11. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    yup lol....confusing
     
  12. Ophinerated

    Ophinerated Preposterous!

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    Not if one of them was from inside our own 5 yard-line, right? Half the distance to the goal line.
     
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  13. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    You may be on to something there. Thanks!
     
  14. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    I think, on the OL, if Carey walks, Satele stays.. They'll be looking in the first couple of rounds for an OT if Carey goes and for an interior OL if not...and certainly that could change during FA...
     
  15. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    I don't think we have a number one on the roster. I also think that they will still pursue after wide receivers in free agency and the draft. The current receiving corps are solid but we need a big target and a number one. Whether that number one comes via free agency or trade, I don't know but nonetheless, we need one. The big target can come through the draft.

    I wouldn't be opposed to adding depth along the whole offensive line. We're paper thin there and that must be corrected IMO. I also think they will go WR in the draft but not the remaining positions listed.

    Nice work man. Good read.
     
    anlgp likes this.
  16. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    I think we could go WR just that other positions (DB, MLB if Crowder isn't a Phin, LBer as a whole, RT if Carey walks, OLine as a whole) are bigger priorities IMO because as I said the WRers are young and still developing, our DBs are getting old, we need a more consistent pass rush and general upgrade at LBer as a whole and if Carey walks we have serious issues from LG over to RT as far as knowing the starters can remain healthy and a big gaping hole at starting RT. Not to mention their backups...
     
  17. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    I think DB, ILB and OLB could be addressed within the first three picks. That leaves the rest of the draft to acquire offensive linemen, wide receivers, etc. I think its more likely that we get a wide receiver from free agency and then later rounds of the draft.
     
    anlgp likes this.
  18. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    Looking back on this.

    I hit pretty well on the fact that we'll pick up some guards and a center. In fact, the only position of need that I mentioned in both of these articles that hasn't been retained or picked up is a WR. There are reports going around that we are looking at Holt but those have neither been confirmed nor denied to be going any further than that.

    In my opinion this means we're either comfortable with the WRers we have (or haven't landed one we're looking at yet) or that my initial post in us not drafting a WR during the first day could be wrong. The fact that we jumped on CB/LB/C/G says to me that they felt those were the bigger positions of need and are more comfortable with our WRers than they were with those positions they picked up.

    Thoughts on that?

    edit:

    I realize some of the guys we picked up (wake, green) might not necessarily be automatic starters on our team; but WR still has not been addressed.
     
    Sceeto likes this.
  19. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Well, one of the reasons we have not signed any WRs could be that there just were not many FA receivers that thrilled the staff or they would have cost too much. This is a very deep WR class, so I'm sure we're going to try to get our guy through the draft and that's the way I like it. :) In FA you have to see what opportunities present themselves. Like I'm sure the staff felt that Groves and Wilson etc. were decent players that could help us fill some holes and help get us over the hump without crippling our future with some monster contracts.(like Boldin). We can't solve everything in one year, so we just need some patchwork FAs to help until we have time to find all of our guys. Who knows these guys might flourish and become solid players.
     
    anlgp likes this.
  20. 54Fins

    54Fins "In Gase we trust"

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    over there
    Fine read,my friend.
    Very good analysis.
     
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  21. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    Thanks, there's a defense one, too.
     
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  22. Onehondo

    Onehondo Senior Member Club Member

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    Great read, you are right on the money. I am really wondering if we will take a WR early, maybe the 25th pick? I am so glad we are building a young team and not a patchwork team. That hasn't worked in the past and just don't seem to work at all.
     

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