I doubt that Tebow makes it past Minnesota at #30: Another voice added to the Tebow first round chorus Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on April 4, 2010 2:56 PM ET Bob Tebow started it by saying his son would go in the top-15 picks. Both Florio and I have also separately chimed in saying that we think someone will take a chance on Tebow in the first round. Mock drafts still routinely list Tebow in the second round. Vegas would probably set his over/under draft slot around 45. But Mike Lombardi of the NFL Network believes Tebow won't make the draft's second night. "From the people I've talked to," Lombardi writes. "It now appears likely that he'll go in the bottom of the first round." It's remarkable that Tebow was often talked about as a mid-round prospect after the Senior Bowl, and now there's plenty of belief he'll go in the top 32. He must be a great dinner date. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/category/rumor-mill/
It would not shock me to see him drafted in the first rd. He would bring alot of fans and jersey sales plus still has the chance at being a good QB in the league.
If one of the QB starved teams dont want Claussen early I could see them moving up into the late first and taking him, he does have the intangibles after all and the extreme desire to get the absolute most out of his abilities. I for one will root for Tebow assuming he stays out of the East...now that he's not a GAYtor, he is much more easier to like.
I think that what's going to happen is that Claussen and Tebow are basically going to flip flop draft status by the time that the draft is over. I was right about Jake Long and I got crapped on for it. I was right about Percy Harvin and I got crapped on for it. So as to avoid having to wipe excrement off of my forehead this year, I'm just going to sit back and watch it play out.
Thanks. It's not as much about being right as it is getting dumped on for having an opinion outside of the box. I don't see the point in it. As to this issue, I think that Claussen might be the most overrated player in the draft and I have never in my life seen a player get dumped on like Tebow. Trust me, I know how to throw a football. Very well at that. There are no doubt issues to Tebow's motion, but I think that the signifigance of his flaws is overstated- I know that you disagree but it's just my opinion, nothing more. I'm not at all a fan of changing a QB's throwing motion- we'll see what happens there with Tebow. Maybe he can pull it off, maybe he can't. But I could live with his original motion, and I'm in the minority there.
Rafael, you are correct. No lower than Minnesota imo unless they take Claussen over him, which I wouldn't do, which I don't think that they will do, and which imo would be a big mistake. Claussen has bust written all over him imo. Personally I wouldn't take him at #43 if we needed a QB. As to Tebow, I have a sneaking suspiscion that his father is right about when he will be drafted. There are clues, there are signs, and no one is paying any attention to them. You're easily one of the sharpest guys on these boards, I'm sure that you can read the tea leaves. So many clues, so many signs, so much obliviousness to them all.
I find it kind of funny you can call any QB a bust and then say Tebow is worth a first rounder. I'd rather take a dump and eat it than bank my career on Tebow ever being a halfway decent QB. He doesn't do a single thing well.
Well, what I said was that in my opinion Claussen has bust written all over him. That's a far cry from calling him a bust, which would be almost as stupid as your entire post given that he hasn't had a chance to prove himself in the NFL. As to your opinion on this or any other matter, it's neither here nor there to me. So get yourself a quarter and call someone who gives a crap. Bon Appetit.
Well that was awfully defensive. I was hoping you'd tell me what exactly you think it is that Tebow does that makes him worth a first rounder. His arm isn't only weak, it's inaccurate. Also the fact that he's a power runner in college doesn't look very promising for his rushing ability in the NFL. Unless you want to take a player in the first because he can pick up one yard on a consistant basis. In that case, we should just trade Polite for a first. Honestly I don't think ANY of the QB's in this draft aside from Bradford are very good prospects. I wouldn't touch Tebow though...not with a first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh.
Honestly, you're just not worth it, due to your lack of insight and the snarkiness of your earlier post. I'll save my thoughts and comments for others. Just move on, if you would.
I'll bet you loved Matt Leinart too whatever buddy. No offense, but if you're that up tight I highly doubt you enjoy the site to it's fullest. Grow a sense of humor.
Do you see what I mean now, Alen? The subject of Tebow comes up and the rodents emerge. Who needs it.
Sorry but Alen isn't going to agree with you that I'm a rodent You're funny. I look forward to reading more of your outlandish and defensive posts.
Well, you'll be on ignore in a couple of minutes, so I won't be reading any more of your worthless drivel. Have a good one.
This isn't quite true. For example, Tim Tebow has better college passing stats than Peyton Manning. We're not exactly looking at Vince Young II here in Tim Tebow. The concern about Tebow is whether the things he does well can still correlate to victory in the NFL. That's a tough call. I'm inclined to say that with a couple of years on the bench and a very good QB coach, Tebow should be fine. He's been a very effective passer in college, which is important. But Tebow runs the risk of being drafted by a team that needs a QB sooner rather than later, and so that could backfire.
Tim Couch threw for a lot of yards as well...that doesn't mean you're a very good passer, or rather that your passing will translate to the next level. I'd much rather have Vince Young, because even as a one dimensional player, his one dimension works. I'm not sure Tebows running ability will help him any, because I think aside from his size, he doesn't have superior athleticism to anyone on the defensive side of the ball. He might have some success if he plays in a VERY safe offense, with short throws and if he is protected by the running game. I don't think he has anything that really sets him apart from other QB's. Arm strength? Average Accuracy? Pretty average beyond the short throws Mechanics? Pretty bad. Drop back from center? Never done it really I'm not sold on his ability to actually read a defense either... So I'm really left with no reason to think he will succeed, other than work ethic. Which is great to have.
Very good points, I would like to see his passing stats without having 4.2 receivers outrunning 4.6 defensive backs.
I don't know many 4.6 forty cornerbacks in the SEC. I think his arm strength is pretty good. His ball placement is bad though and his passes sail.
I'm not talking about passing yards: Manning has Tebow beat in that department. I'm talking about passing YPA and passer rating. Manning's college YPA was 8.27 and his college passer rating was 100.93. Very nice, and apparently these two numbers were worth the #1 overall pick. Tebow's college YPA was 9.43 and his college passer rating was 120.72. He murders Manning in both departments. Oh, and Tebow takes better care of the ball: he threw only 15 INTs to Manning's 33. Turnovers are nearly as critical as passing YPA to success in the modern NFL, which means that coming out of college, Tebow is better-equipped than Manning to succeed as a quarterback. Statistically speaking, anyway. Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Tebow is guaranteed to be a Hall of Fame QB, or even that he'll be better than Peyton Manning. I'm simply disproving your assertion that Tebow does nothing well and is therefore not worth drafting. Some team is going to take Tebow, probably in the first round. I'm betting the Colts will. And just because you brought up Tim Couch, he threw for 1000 less yards than Tebow, had a 7.12 YPA, and a 95.60 passer rating, plus a whopping 37 INTs.
Which pretty much means nothing....no? You can throw for the most yards, touchdowns, and fewest interceptions in NCAA history and not be NFL material. It's a completely different game in so many aspects. His receivers are no longer going to be worlds faster than his opponents. His line isn't going to protect him like the Florida line did against subpar schools.
Stats are a measure of what happens in a game. They mean quite a bit. In the NFL, having a better passing YPA and turnover differential than your opponent means victory about 95% of the time. Those are hugely important numbers, which is why Tebow's college numbers are very important in this regard. When has this ever happened?
Vince Young and Matt Leinart both threw for 65% completions their last year in college. Even though I liked Vince Young more as a prospect, I wouldn't argue that he was as accurate as Leinart. Even though it is a measure of what happened in game. Also I never said it happened. Just that in theory it could.
No one's arguing completion percentage as an indicator of NFL success, though. Apparently having a 60% completion percentage of one of Bill Parcells' checklist requirements, but he's not here to discuss or defend his criteria right now. In theory, Martians could land in my backyard and install me as the dictator in their puppet regime. Not going to count on it, though.
I don't like YPA as an indicator either. How many short passes to Harvin and his other blazing fast receivers turned into big gains because of yards after the catch and individual effort on their part? There is no real way to judge a QB from college to the NFL aside from measurables, and seeing his ability to read a defense on the field. Which I didn't really see from Tebow. Another way stats can be misleading 21/5 was his TD/INT rate passing for the season. Against LSU/Tennessee/Georgia/South Carolina/Alamba 5/3 Three games accounted for 10 of his touchdowns. That means in 11 others, he had 11 touchdowns. Not exactly a "dominant" passer. Also the martians have already contacted me. So you're right, probably not happening for you. Sorry.
Regardless of whether you like it, it's true. Higher passing YPA + better turnover differential = 95% chance of victory in the NFL. His career numbers speak for themselves. You can come up with similar stretches for just about anybody. The purpose of draft prep is to evaluate someone's body of work, not just a few games. I'm sorry, but Tebow does plenty of things well. That's not in doubt. The question is whether or not he does certain other things well enough to succeed in the NFL.
And part of that is evaluating what he did against higher levels of competition. I didn't pick just bad games there, I picked games against very good teams and rivals. Georgia for instance he was 2/0. However his body of work against top tier teams isn't nearly as impressive as what he's done against the teams he SHOULD be racking up the score against. Also you're right that in the NFL a higher YPA = winning more. However he doesn't have a high YPA in the NFL, and I doubt his translates.
You can say this about plenty of players, though. Again, that's why you evaluate the totality of a player's career. I don't think he'll maintain his sky-high YPA, but there's no reason to believe he can't post something in the 7.2-7.5 range... which can win you the Super Bowl, in addition to marking a QB as a top-tier passer. Chad Pennington's YPA in 2008 was 7.3 just as an example. Anyway, I see this discussion getting dragged down into nitpicking and minutia. I've already proven Tebow does a few things well, so let's see what happens when the draft comes around. My prediction: Tebow to Indy.
It's more than when the draft comes around. It's what happens after it. I don't really care if he succeeds or not, I just really can't see it happening. Even during one of the Florida games they were talking about one of Tebows receivers being frustrated that Tim didn't have the arm to hit him in stride down the field even though he kept beating the defense. That's a red flag. I agree though it's dragged out. Also please tell that Jim person he can ignore me, but he doesn't need to comment about me in passing. That's just creepy.
