Are the Dolphins a Playoff Team?

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

No man. I'm a big believer that you cannot rely on turnovers on defense, and that you cannot rely on big plays on offense. You need to be able to win without them. They're the ice cream after dinner, but they can't be the meal. And if you stink outside of those big plays and win, then you should feel lucky that you stole the game.

Did the Rams drop the ball on a platter for Miami or did Miami's defense create turnovers with their scheme and aggression?

Miami blew out the Rams, plain and simple and you can't spin it any other way.

"Bumrush wrote:

Did the Rams drop the ball on a platter for Miami or did Miami's defense create turnovers with their scheme and aggression?

Miami blew out the Rams, plain and simple and you can't spin it any other way.

OK. I'm glad that you're happy. I've been trying to stay out of things the last two weeks so I don't bring down everyone else's party. I just can't be excited or hopeful watching the team look the way that they have. Hopefully, as time goes by and they grow and get experience, they'll be better.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I'm not interested in things the same way that you are, no. I've said that many times over. And I'm not trying, AT ALL, to say that points allowed doesn't matter. Of course it matters.

What I'm saying is that allowing a ton of yards, a ton of first downs, a ton of plays run, and allowing the other team to control the clock cannot reasonably be the way that you want to go about things. It cannot be the plan, or the goal, even if it works here and there.

You are completely denying reality right now. You have yet to respond to the comment that Miami has had over a full game (better yet a game and a half) of large leads vs the Jets, 49ers and Rams.

Your main argument is that a top 5 offense with an elite QB played well against them (also with a top 3WR)

Step away from you're anger.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

Turnovers are part of the game and almost a direct correlation between winning and losing.

Here's an interesting stat: correlation between turnover differential and win% across NFL history (SB era) is 0.6317 while it's 0.634 for passer rating. In other words, turnover differential is essentially equally predictive of win% as passer rating.

In both cases, they explain about 40% of the variance in win% (pretty huge).

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I really have no clue as to how the Dolphins defense is supposed to function. It all goes over my head and I feel lost when I look at it. But I really don't think that giving up over 400 yards and over 25 first downs is a sustainable way to win games. Its going to come back to bite them if they don't real it in.

The Dolphins have the second-best pass defense in the league in terms of EPA per pass dropback.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

We'll agree to disagree. As long as the defense is similar to what it is now, I'm never going to like it, believe in it, or trust it.

You have to consider that the league overall is passing the ball and scoring at an all-time high. What's promising about the Dolphins now is that they appear to be able to do it, too!

"The Guy wrote:

The Dolphins have the second-best pass defense in the league in terms of EPA per pass dropback.

Could you explain what that means? I haven't heard the stat used before.

I see that the Fins are 19th in yards per attempt allowed, 13th in Adjusted YPA, T-24th in YPC, T-14th in Net YPA, and T-10th in Adjusted Net YPA.

"The Guy wrote:

You have to consider that the league overall is passing the ball and scoring at an all-time high. What's promising about the Dolphins now is that they appear to be able to do it, too!

I'm going to give the offense a lot of leeway. A very young QB getting his first playing time. A very young OL where none of the starters had played together before this season. A WR corps badly depleted by injury, and basically no run game. Its a hard situation.

Its going to understandably take quite a while before things look smooth. I'm hopeful that they'll look better as the rest of the season goes on.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

Could you explain what that means? I haven't heard the stat used before.

I see that the Fins are 19th in yards per attempt allowed, 13th in Adjusted YPA, T-24th in YPC, T-14th in Net YPA, and T-10th in Adjusted Net YPA.

Here's a good explanation:

https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/stats-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained

Again the Dolphins are second in the league in EPA per pass dropback. Their run defense isn't nearly as good, but run defense is far less important than pass defense.

"The Guy wrote:

Here's a good explanation:

https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/stats-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained

Again the Dolphins are second in the league in EPA per pass dropback. Their run defense isn't nearly as good, but run defense is far less important than pass defense.

I'm not a believer in "expected" anything as far as stats go, but thank you for sharing.

I'm also not a believer that run defense is unimportant. Stop the other team's run game, put them in long yardage, and then force incompletions, leading to punts. That strategy still works, and is used by NFL teams with good defenses today.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

No man. I'm a big believer that you cannot rely on turnovers on defense, and that you cannot rely on big plays on offense. You need to be able to win without them. They're the ice cream after dinner, but they can't be the meal. And if you stink outside of those big plays and win, then you should feel lucky that you stole the game.

Who cares? This team is showing us that they can win a lot of different ways.

Face a mobile QB who murders us with his feet. Tua outduels in the 4th quarter.

Face a nasty DL and a QB who can’t handle pressure. Blitz the hell out of him and force him to make bad decisions.

face a lousy Jets team, curb stomp them.

Face a beaten up SF team, Fitz goes off and we force more turnovers.

And oh by the way, turnovers are a function of pressuring the QB. This team is getting good at that. Especially with 2 very good corners that have allowed us to do that playing more man.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I'm not a believer in "expected" anything as far as stats go, but thank you for sharing.

I'm also not a believer that run defense is unimportant. Stop the other team's run game, put them in long yardage, and then force incompletions, leading to punts. That strategy still works, and is used by NFL teams with good defenses today.

The "expected" component makes it far more informative than yards alone. For example getting 8 yards on 3rd and 8 is far more valuable than getting 7 yards on 3rd and 8, even though when measured in yards it's a mere one yard difference.

The Dolphins for example are best in the league in 3rd down EPA per play.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I'm also not a believer that run defense is unimportant. Stop the other team's run game, put them in long yardage, and then force incompletions, leading to punts. That strategy still works, and is used by NFL teams with good defenses today.

The issue there is that teams aren't doing "run, run, pass" anywhere near as much as they used to. So stopping the passing game on early downs is more valuable than stopping the run game in general. It's also the case that the run game doesn't generate anywhere near the EPA the passing game does.

Take the Dolphins for example. Not a great run defense at all, but the best 3rd down pass defense in the league. That flies in the face of your equation above, which would fit better in let's say 1995.

I understand what you're saying, that you want what they're doing to be replicable. But a lot of it is. Much of the defensive stuff, and now it appears Tua may indeed be a guy you can generate a reliable passing game around.

"mlb1399 wrote:

Who cares? This team is showing us that they can win a lot of different ways.

Face a mobile QB who murders us with his feet. Tua outduels in the 4th quarter.

Face a nasty DL and a QB who can’t handle pressure. Blitz the hell out of him and force him to make bad decisions.

face a lousy Jets team, curb stomp them.

Face a beaten up SF team, Fitz goes off and we force more turnovers.

And oh by the way, turnovers are a function of pressuring the QB. This team is getting good at that. Especially with 2 very good corners that have allowed us to do that playing more man.

I think that the sample size is far too small to believe any of that will last, just yet. They would need to prove that over multiple years for me to think they can keep just countering anything that's thrown at them.

Fingers crossed for them to gradually establish their own consistent identity on both sides of the ball, and then eventually force their will on the opposition.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I'm not a believer in "expected" anything as far as stats go, but thank you for sharing.

That's just a weird thing to say. You're saying that because you're taking some intuitive notion of "expected" and assuming it means the same thing in statistics. In statistics, "expected value" just means "average". For example, if the league average passer rating is X, then the expected value of passer rating is X. So unless you have some issue with using averages you don't have an issue with expected values.

With EPA, it's the average number of points scored on the next drive from a certain game situation (i.e., down, distance, etc.) based on NFL history. That's it. Such "averages" are useful because they have predictive value if the distribution doesn't change over time. EPA doesn't need adjustment for era, but some other stats like passer rating do. So you adjust for era by equating the "expected values", and possibly equating other things like standard deviations.

Anyway, as long as you use averages (which you do) you're using expected values so I think we can dismiss your statement.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I think that the sample size is far too small to believe any of that will last, just yet. They would need to prove that over multiple years for me to think they can keep just countering anything that's thrown at them.

Fingers crossed for them to gradually establish their own consistent identity on both sides of the ball, and then eventually force their will on the opposition.

The problem is waiting for multiple years the roster is going to see a shift in personnel and talent. The good teams adapt.

All that matters now is we are winning in a lot of facets in the game really besides running the ball.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I think that the sample size is far too small to believe any of that will last, just yet. They would need to prove that over multiple years for me to think they can keep just countering anything that's thrown at them.

Fingers crossed for them to gradually establish their own consistent identity on both sides of the ball, and then eventually force their will on the opposition.

Respectfully, I honestly don't know what the heck you're disappointed about. The defense is playing at a high level. The only defensive Stat that REALLY matters is points allowed. Yards don't matter, not really. Keeping your opponents from scoring points is the only thing that matters for a defense. Generating pressure and forcing mistakes is one of the things that facilitate that. Last week the number one scoring defense went head to head with the number one scoring offense. We won. Yards allowed really don't matter that much any more.

"Tin Indian wrote:

Respectfully, I honestly don't know what the heck you're disappointed about. The defense is playing at a high level. The only defensive Stat that REALLY matters is points allowed. Yards don't matter, not really. Keeping your opponents from scoring points is the only thing that matters for a defense. Generating pressure and forcing mistakes is one of the things that facilitate that. Last week the number one scoring defense went head to head with the number one scoring offense. We won. Yards allowed really don't matter that much any more.

I get it. Virtually everyone else is on the other side of the issue from me. Oh well. Debating all of you isn't going to be productive. And posting my feelings and opinions seems to be pretty worthless anymore either. I want and need different things from football that most of the rest of you do.

And thats not based on stats, or the fact that the team won or lost at the end of the day, but just watching every play with my eyes and feeling that most of the time they're going to be able to line up and execute a normal football play on both sides of the ball effectively. Right now, on both sides of the ball, it feels like there are only a few minutes left in the game, and every play is a desperate and chaotic attempt to score or prevent the other team from doing so. Thats not shocking given the inexperience all around from the coaching staff down through so many of the players. As I said, I expect things to take time. My hope is just that with that time, what we're seeing now goes away and is replaced by something much more stable.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I get it. Virtually everyone else is on the other side of the issue from me. Oh well. Debating all of you isn't going to be productive. And posting my feelings and opinions seems to be pretty worthless anymore either. I want and need different things from football that most of the rest of you do.

And thats not based on stats, or the fact that the team won or lost at the end of the day, but just watching every play with my eyes and feeling that most of the time they're going to be able to line up and execute a normal football play on both sides of the ball effectively. Right now, on both sides of the ball, it feels like there are only a few minutes left in the game, and every play is a desperate and chaotic attempt to score or prevent the other team from doing so. Thats not shocking given the inexperience all around from the coaching staff down through so many of the players. As I said, I expect things to take time. My hope is just that with that time, what we're seeing now goes away and is replaced by something much more stable.

I agree with you that you can't always count on turnovers, but teams have won the Superbowl that way.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

I agree with you that you can't always count on turnovers, but teams have won the Superbowl that way.

Sure. But I'm a lot more interested in building a sustainable winning team that can go out and do their thing, week after week, for five or six seasons in a row. A team that barring severe injuries or horrible luck should be favored to reach the Divisional Round most seasons.

The teams that go to the Super Bowl on the backs of big plays, like the 2015 Panthers who went 15-1, almost always crash back down to Earth and aren't the same afterwards. They went 6-10 the next year, and have only had one winning season since.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I'm not expecting them to be elite in any aspect. Hoping that they might some years, but never expecting. But when they get gashed all game long and can't stop the other team from moving up and down the field unless they create a turnover, that's when I have an issue.

I guess I expect them to be average. And its so ironic that right now, the Fins defense ranks #16 in total yards allowed, pass yards allowed and first downs allowed. But its been feast and famine. Allowing almost nothing one game, but a huge amount the next.

I don't want to bang too hard on a team a year and a half into a total tear down rebuild. That's not my intention. I think they need time to get it right and I don't want to seem impatient. But its my bewilderment that so many people think that things are now awesome because of the won loss record that's throwing me sideways. We could just as easily be 3-5 right now, and if we were, I wonder how differently the conversation would look. Thats why I'm not focused on the record this season at all, but rather how well they're playing. And we can of course disagree on what we want to focus on with regards to that.

you really misjudged this team from the get so I would think you would be the most happiest fan in the world..

"djphinfan wrote:

you really misjudged this team from the get so I would think you would be the most happiest fan in the world..

As I said, my joy isn't going to be based on wins and losses right now. I'm looking for details and progression. Right now, they're scrappy and surviving and squeaking things out mostly by the seat of their pants. I'll be happy when that settles down and isn't necessary most of the time, and things slow way down on both sides of the ball.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

Sure. But I'm a lot more interested in building a sustainable winning team that can go out and do their thing, week after week, for five or six seasons in a row. A team that barring severe injuries or horrible luck should be favored to reach the Divisional Round most seasons.

Our defense is #4 in points allowed after 8 games. That's really hard to do through "luck", suggesting something sustainable. Same with Tua's performance against the Cards. That's QB talent on display right there and is also likely sustainable.

So I don't buy your "not sustainable" argument.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

The teams that go to the Super Bowl on the backs of big plays, like the 2015 Panthers who went 15-1, almost always crash back down to Earth and aren't the same afterwards. They went 6-10 the next year, and have only had one winning season since.

For me, winning a single SB is worth a LOT more than many years of consistent high level play without winning a single SB. So I'd be totally happy with a team that won the SB on the back of big plays that aren't sustainable. But like I said, there's good reason to think that the Dolphins' recent success isn't some fluke.

"cbrad wrote:

Our defense is #4 in points allowed after 8 games. That's really hard to do through "luck", suggesting something sustainable. Same with Tua's performance against the Cards. That's QB talent on display right there and is also likely sustainable.

So I don't buy your "not sustainable" argument.

For me, winning a single SB is worth a LOT more than many years of consistent high level play without winning a single SB. So I'd be totally happy with a team that won the SB on the back of big plays that aren't sustainable. But like I said, there's good reason to think that the Dolphins' recent success isn't some fluke.

I don't think that we've seen anything sustainable at all from the offense yet. As I said earlier, I'm not banging on them for that. They're in a really tough spot and are making chicken salad right now. But its a mess.

As to the philosophical question, it comes down to your personality, I think. If you told me that I could choose between one guaranteed title surrounded by three bad seasons on both sides, or I could choose a seven year period where the team was going to win 10+ games every year but had no guarantees once they got in the playoffs, I'm taking door #2 100% of the time.

"Unlucky 13 wrote:

I don't think that we've seen anything sustainable at all from the offense yet.

Really? You don't think that what Tua did against the Cards suggests he's one of those rare QB's that can carry a team if necessary? Those types of QB's tend to have sustained above average play.

This is testable though. If Tua performs well for most of our remaining games, and if the defense keeps their relatively high ranking in points allowed, then that should prove to you that this is sustainable.

Remember, you're now talking about sustainability, not "style". So if it's just sustainability you're after, then winning most of our remaining games alone should convince you that this IS sustainable.