Great stuff brother.

Great idea to look those numbers up.

I still believe the kid has the potential to become a good QB.
He needs a top QB coach to work with him intently this offseason and a new OC that will utilize what he's good at now while letting him develop the areas he's weak in.

 

Surely Dan Henning deserves just as much credit?


Just Kidding, it is awesome to actually see some positive stats regarding our phins for once. Awesome work, very impressive by Henne and somewhat surprising stuff to see.

So this would make that Ahmad Bradshaw or Mark Ingram signing even more important than I thought originally.

 

Yeah let's sure up the running game and make it our strength again. Then maybe add that downfield threat, I love the Mike Sims-Walker idea, but that seems unrealistic as receivers generally command a lot of money. We'll have to look more at how the pre draft develops before listing our options, but Titus Young really intrigues me for that position he seems like he could be a poor man's Desean Jackson, a very poor man's Desean Jackson. I think he can be had in the 4th.

 

I actually had a chance to see Jernigan in person earlier this year and I don't know if he had an off game or what, but he just didn't look impressive at the time. No doubt he's fast, but he didn't make anyone miss (and with our secondary that is a challenge) granted it was one of his worst games on the year. That is really the only time I've watched him so my opinion is tainted, though it seems that he really is only responsible for a few big plays on an offense that is normally known for big plays. Just my two cents I haven't really looked into him as much as I should have.

 

He definitely looks better there it seems like there's a good selection of solid 4th-5th round type receiver prospects this year.

So.... is this an indictment of the offense as a whole or of Henne? I don't think that anyone has accused us of having a good offense.

 

Good work on the post brother.

I do believe being proactive at the QB position is important for whomever is running the team next season. Whether it is in the draft or in free agency/trade we need to add another potentially starting caliber QB to the roster and let Henne and the addition battle it out for the starting job.

 

Actually, I did. It's been a Henne trademark since his college days. He throws many of the short to intermediate patterns very well. Add to that an offense that excels on 3rd and short, and you have a good combination. What many people - including some NFL scouts, I might add - tend to overlook is the fact that arm strength does not imply downfield passing. They see a rocket arm like Henne's and assume they are dealing with a downfield passer. The problem is, Henne has never been one. It's on all of his tape, if you actually bother to look. He is pretty good at the short to intermediate passing game. And he is pretty bad at anything beyond, because his accuracy on deep throws has been consistently off, going back all the way to Michigan.

I'm not surprised to see Henne excel on 3rd and short. That's what I expected out of Henne. I'm also not surprised to see him suck on 3rd and long because that, too, was exactly what I expected. It's right there on five years of tape for everyone so inclined to look at. It's also the reason I think the whole "Henne had to play in a system designed for Pennington" stuff a big load of yada-yada. He hadn't. It's an argument put forth by people who, quite frankly, do not understand that there's no causation between arm strength and downfield passing ability at all.

 

I think Hennes problem is that he is not playing with confinence.He at times either is unsure of himself and what is going on around him.Mabey he can be coached to improve his performance but as of late he looks kinda clueless in pressue situations.

 

Great Post Todd!

I think if you combine this with the strength of schedule and the blitzing defences we faced you can see why we struggled (turnovers). This combined with our patch work offensive line says it all. Makes you wonder how much better we would have been last year with Marshall and the Orca's.

The way I see it is there are very few on this board that want to stick with Henne, but we have to ask ourselves what is more acheivable/realistic for next year. Do we mortgage our future and get a QB at the expense of our other offensive needs and how likely is it that we get a QB that will flourish in 3rd and long with no running game. Not going to happen unless we are looking at 3 years of mediocrity as we rebuild and by that time it will be time to rebuild the defence as we mortgaged all our draft picks to get Luck. Makes much more sense to me to put Henne in a position that he can handle and surprisingly is one of the best at, who would have thought!

I am not saying do not get a QB just do not put as a priority over our other needs.

My wish list.

Fire Sparano he is a good coach for players but way to conservative to ever win the big one. He took alot of risk in 2008 but somehow dropped a ball over the last two years. He killed our Offensive Line, traded our speed for nothing, yes Ginn was a bust as a starter but defences had to respect his speed and he was always a threat to bust a kick off. I also beleive he handcuffed Henning to the point he could not be effective with his field goal mentality. Wanny ball revisited!!!

Fix the Offensive Line.
Stud TE
Speed WR/Kick returner
RB with speed that can take it to the house, could be Sheets have not seen enough yet. I beleive Ronnie and Ricky are fine with a effective OL.

On defence I feel we are in pretty good shape, we get Odrick back along with a few others and Nolan is much more familiar with what he has.

Todd you are the man!!

 

3rd & 3-7 yards is considered normal?

Definitely food for thought

 

I agree with V and you must remember comparisons can be used to show whatever you want it to show. You started with Henne, a great post BTW, against everyone which is fair. Picking something out of thin air is nothing more than wishful thinking imho.

Points to consider:
1. Henne was picked by this staff to QB this system
2. Pennington fits this system to a T
3. System calls for an early down the field throw to loosen up the defense
4. So that running game can take over and win the game
5. Staff saw in Henne a Penny type game manager with great short/intermediate game

Conclusion:
We can win games with Henne IF he is behind a great o-line with a good running game and he is not asked to carry the team. He must have both SPACE and TIME to step into his throws. A strong Center is paramount to his success. Example: First three quarters of the Lions game with Richie as his Center.
I would submit to you that we saw everything good about Chad Henne during that time. I would also submit that being that good in that situation is not good enough to win a SuperBowl. Chad Henne, like Chad Pennington, is good just not good enough imho.

Had to come back and add one more point to consider:
We gave up speed to gain possession in our recievers, Ginn for Marshall. Why?
Without a doubt, most here wanted to keep Ginn, if only for speed on the outside and questioned why they would just give it away. Because this staff fully believed that Hartline could be that once or twice a game down field threat thus had/have no need for speed.

I hope with all my being that Jeff Ireland, now that Tuna fish is gone will revert to a more balanced player draft and mix a little speed in with those big guys cause we really need it. That is of course if we get a Damn good OC to call the shots!!

 

Historically, a QB's performance on third down is the best predictor of future success. People keep mentioning the TD/INT ratios but those tend to be more dependent of the offense and not as much on the QB's talent. I looked at the numbers for Henne back on Dec. 10th. At that point Henne was 14th overall on third down passes (all distances), with a QBR of 88.2. I don't recall the exact numbers, but Henne was also very good against the blitz. His numbers have gone down against the blitz since his knee injury, however, and now his rating is about 79.1 against the blitz. That's still not horrible, but I believe before the knee injury his rating was over 100. That's why I never understood why Henning kept insisting on using max protect and limited receivers when it was so obvious that his QB played the best when blitzed and when he had multiple receiving options.

 

Not really. The 2008 second round QB pick was a tossup between Henne and Brohm. If Brohm was there, we'd have him. Brohm got picked right before us so we got Henne. There were supposedly 4 legit QB's in the 2008 draft: Ryan, Flacco, Brohm and Henne. Under them was John David Booty and others. We wanted one of those 4 with Jake Long and the only one who got to us happened to be Chad Henne. He was the best QB left so there wasn't even the choice and evaluation you purport to have happened.

 

My understanding was the max protect was Henne's call.

I do agree that there are positives in Henne's game. I would like to see him succeed. His performance on third downs is something that does give hope that he can improve as a quarterback.

 

Well I have a less positive take on Chad Henne:

Chad had success in the 3 wide/shotgun/no huddle simply because it hides his weaknesses, with more Wr's in the play the defense has a harder time following his eyes to the play, that coupled with the no huddle limiting defensive substitutions means he can exploit a mismatch in coverage far more easily.

I also think Henne was done no favors in coupling Marshall with Bess as they both essentially serve the same function and neither has the speed to get on top of a defense consistently.

 

Where did you get that 3rd and 7 was the norm?

 

something genuinely positive? cut your loses & move on, its over

 

In most systems the QB can adjust the blocking and sometimes have a back stay in, but he can't send more players out and he doesn't generally control the number of WRs he has available. That's mostly controlled by the personnel package that was sent in. So if Henning sends in a package with two WRs, Henne is stuck with that.

 

I don't see that as a negative. Every QB has weaknesses, a good OC minimizes those.

And I agree that this offense was poorly matched in terms of talent. The skill sets of the guys we have don't complement each other.

 

What does that have to do with max protect?

What is the percentage of plays in the NFL where teams use 2 wide receivers? From what I have seen it is still the majority, however that isn't from a statistical basis.

 

I do not agree. his skill set is short bullet passes. he does his best when he can throw short bullet passes. That means you need quick wide receivers who can get open quickly.

 

A very good post to start the topic. Thanks for the research and the time/effort put into that. Now, could you please provide links and citations? I kid. I only say that because some other posters murdered a guy for not providing a link to some quotes. This really is good stuff--although it doesn't discuss the concerns and my reasoning for why I don't believe Chad Henne should be our starting QB next year--or not shouldn't be, but looked at as the guy next year.

A question I have for you is that you say "IMO Henne has shown that he CAN make those downfield throws". What is the definition of downfield for you? I think he does a very nice job at those deep in's and out's routes. He's shown that he can make those back shoulder fade throws at times as well. However, for any throw over 40 yards, he has shown no propensity to be able to complete those throws. Again, going back to Vendigo's reply, which I completely agree with, he's shown no accuracy in college or the NFL to make those. From my recollection, I can only think of 4--the Ginn TD vs. Jets, the Hartline catch vs. Titans, the deep ball to Marshall vs. the Vikings, and the deep ball to Marshall vs. the Jets. Yet, we seem to throw those passes at least twice a game. He's missed those chances all this year. I don't think he has that ability, because he doesn't have that accuracy.

I think this idea that because a QB has a strong arm, he's a downfield passer and because a WR has a slow 40 time he can't be a good down the field threat, holds no water for me.

I think the reason why we struggle in those 8+ situations is because a myriad of reasons, which the fact our WRs run average 40 teams are the least of the problem. I think our coordinator runs the same darn plays. I think the offensive line struggles when it's asked to protect longer, which longer routes would indicate. I think Chad Henne has a difficult time throwing into zone coverage and anticipating those throws. Teams have blitzed much less against us and when they do they back it up with zone coverage--this has been a large struggle for Chad Henne.

This idea that guys who run those 40 times can't be successful intermediate/downfield (10+ yards) isn't true because Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Derrick Mason, Jerricho Cotchery, Kenny Britt, Sidney Rice, T.J Houshmanzadeh, Terrell Owens, Stevie Johnson, Hines Ward, Brandon Lloyd, Vincent Jackson, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Mike Williams (Bucs), Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall and many more past and present would disagree with you that is the case. It's about good routes, going up and getting the ball, being smart (when to read coverage and dictate what route should be ran), being able to beat man coverage and about a QB that can give him the ball. I'm not saying a 40 time is meaningless, but it's about speed with pads on and on the field speed.

This reinforces to me that Chad Henne has to be put into perfect situations, or situations so advantageous for success, to be successful. I want a QB, when called on to win a game for you, he can do it. Chad Henne hasn't shown that ability since beating the Jets in his second start of his career.

 

Well it is a negative in the sense that Henne can operate the most efficiently in a dumbed down offensive system, now if Sparano and Co are that committed to Henne, then by all means run that style of offense, but it is a factor and a admittance that Henne is NOT a drop back/pocket passer..which is fine but seems unlikely knowing how stubborn this staff can be.

They want it the way they want it fit in or get out..end of story.

 

Thats a pretty big caveat.

 

Mel Kiper today, on Henne. Just food for thought:

What is your take on Henne?

Mel Kiper (1:41 PM)


Same as I thought coming out of Michigan. Wildy inconsistent. Makes bad decisions. Can throw the ball through a mountain. He has games where he looks like he can be the answer and others where you ask why did they take this guy. That's why I said at the time that they should have taken Matt Ryan.

 

The Marshall deep ball against the Jets was overthrown and Marshall had to make an amazing leap to get it. On the Hartline flea-flicker, the ball was underthrown and Hartline had to severely adjust his stride in order to make the catch. Both of those were touchdowns if they hit (among other missed passes) and both times the receivers had to make heavy adjustments to pull them in.

Technically, Henne did hit Ginn twice on deep balls last year, but the second was called back due to a penalty. Overall though, Henne is just not good at the deep ball.

 

Not in most passing situations. Most commonly the QB has at least three options. We usually use just two and rely on the play action fake to create the space, but nobody has bought that fake all season. In that situation any QB is more likely than not to fail.