It seems like a lot of great talent is likely to be available when we pick at #12. Potentially CJ Spiller, Dez Bryant, Ro McClain and others. This is the type of talent teams trade up to get, imo. So how possible is a draft-day trade out of our spot? Let's take a look at who picks after us.... 13. San Francisco The 49ers could use help in the secondary (CB or FS) and along the O-line, especially at the tackles. If an Earl Thomas is there at #12, do they give us their #13 overall and their 2nd round pick to ensure we don't take him? With two 1st round picks (#13 and #17), they have flexibility. I don't see them trading up, mainly because they have a few holes to fill, and moving up one spot probably won;t be worthwhile. If a great Offensive Tackle falls to us, they know we won't pick him anyways, so there's little incentive for them to trade, imo. Chance of trade: Very low 14. Seattle Seahwaks Another team with two 1st round picks (#6 and #14). They need players in every area, though. Only Tight End and Linebacker are somewhat stable with their starters. This is a team that, regardless of who is on the board at #14, will be happy with the BPA. Also, having that #6 pick will allow them to address their greatest need first, putting less pressure on the #14 pick being the one where they 'get their man'. That's why I don't see the incentive for a trade up by the Seahawks. Chance of trade: Very low 15. New York Giants The Giants aren't desperate for talent in any one area, imo. They could stand to bring some young (less expensive) talent in at Defensive End and maybe Cornerback depth, or O-line depth. The Linebacker corps could also use an infusion of young talent. The best chance for a trade here, imo, is if they are high on a Derrick Morgan, JPP or Ro McClain and they fall to #12. If they are convinced one of those is their man, then we could see a modest move up. That said, I think they would be happy to take whomever is still available to them at #14 in Kindle, Witherspoon, Brandon Graham or the like. Their low desperation level and positions of need don't point to motivation for a trade, imo. Chance of trade: Low 16. Tennessee Titans This is where things start to get interesting. The Titans need to load up to compete with Peyton Manning's Colts. Vince Young has shown he can carry this team, to an extent. Jeff Fisher knows he needs to make the most of this season and they'll need better pass rush and Defensive End play to do it. A second corner to pair with Cortland Finnegan would help too, as would a dominant Wide Receiver to help maximize Young's offense. Possible targets for them to trade up for, imo, include: Dez Byant, Derrick Morgan, Joe Haden, Jason Pierre Paul. If any of those have caught Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt's eye, and they fall to #12, then this is the first potential trade partner I could see for the Miami Dolphins. Chance of trade: Moderate 17. San Francisco (again) See above at #13 18. Pittsburgh After a woefully underperforming year, the Steelers need to get back to basics.That means improving their fundamental play on both the Offensive and Defensive lines, and getting a dominant running game going to help Roethlisberger. Offensive Line, Defensive End (with DT taken care of for now with Casey Hampton's re-signing at NT), OT, OG, C, and maybe RB are all targets. This puts us in a very good position, should one of the top Defensive Ends or Defensive Tackles fall to #12. I could see the Steelers moving up to nab one of the following: Bulaga, Jason Pierre Paul (could convert to OLB or be DE, and they have the patience to develop the James Harrisons of the world), Derrick Morgan, and maybe even CJ Spiller, though he is not a typical Steelers running back his talent is clear. It's possible they'd leapfrog some teams to get Campbell or Anthony Davis if they truly believed that was their man, and that he'd be picked, but the Steelers rarely act like a particular player is crucial for them. I think they'd be happy taking a Iupati or whomever is around at their pick. 50/50 chance of a a trade to me, if one of the premier targets I mentioned falls to #12. Chance of trade: Moderate 19. Atlanta Another team who needs Offensive line and Defensive End help. The same possible targets: Derrick Morgan, Jason Pierre Paul. I think they'd be happy with the mid-round offensive linemen available and can't see them moving up for a Bulaga over Davis, Cambell, Iupati and the like. Any trade would have to come for a top ten Defensive Line talent. Chance of trade: Low to Moderate 20. Houston Losing Dunta Robinson means the Texans could use CB help, espectially if they have return ability. Joe Haden's Pro Day time of 4.41 helped assuage fears created by his slow combine time. HE said in an interview on March 16th that he had not attended a speed camp ore-combine, instead working out at his Dad's gym. Whoops, Joe. He said that since the combine he had practised his 40 starts a thousand times. It showed on his pro day. The other interesting corner is Devin McCourty, who had a great combine, with Deion Sanders raving about him in Cornerback footwork and flip-your-hips drills. I don't however, think the perceived value on McCourty is high enough that the Texans would be afraid of him going before their pick. They would wait for McCourty, not trade up for it. So, the questions is, who does GM Rick Smith think is the best corner in this draft? If he thinks it's Joe Haden, and Haden makes it to #12, despite not being a great returner, I believe the Texans definitely move up to nab him. Trade chance is high if Haden is on the board. Chance of trade: High 21. Cincinnati The Bengals could use a better starting Tight End, Safety help, and depth at Defensive End (the lack of which showed last year). Tight End is clearly where the right fit will lie in terms of their draft position. At #21, they should still have a shot at Jermaine Gresham, but could settle for Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham or Dennnis Pitta. With those options, I'm not sure there is a top ten talent who could fall to #12 and tempt Mike Brown enough to trade up, short of Eric Berry himself. That's a pipe dream and the Dolphins would never trade that pick away if the fantasyland scenario of Berry falling to us came true. Earl Thomas is not compelling enough to jump to #12 for imo, and San Fran could nab him at #13. I just don't see where a Bengals trade could happen unless an extraordinary event occurs. Chance of trade: Low 22. New England Loaded with 2nd round picks, New England has a lot of flexibility, but it's a major faux pas to trade with someone in your own division, generally speaking. If we traded down with New England, and the player they took at #12 kicked our *** for the next 12 years, the fanbase would be pissed. It's simply not good for business. I'm going to say that, despite the Parcells connections here, this unwritten rule start inviolate. No trade with the Pats. Chance of trade: Low 23. Green Bay Cornerback, Offensive Tackle are the biggest areas where Green Bay must get better and younger. Woodson and Harris are not going to last forever. A running back and pass rushing end could help too. Again, there is trade up potential here, imo. If Joe Haden, Derrick Morgan, or even CJ Spiller are still on the board there's a chance the packers move up to get their player. Joe Haden seems most likely as someone who would tempt them. That said, the leap from 23 to 12 is costly, and with several holes to fill it may be too costly for this club to play the ticket price. 50/50 chance of a trade if one of their target CBs or DEs is on the board. Chance of trade: Moderate to High 24. Philadelphia A lot of needs for a team which may be nearing the end of a long, great run under Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb. The pass rush must improve, putting Defensive end and Outside Linebacker on the plate. The loss of Brian Westbrook makes Runningback a target. And with Shawn Andrews leaving and Tra Thomas aging, a great O-line pick would keep the foundations from rotting. The wildcard here is the Eagles wanting to potentially trade McNabb. The Eagles are a team in transition, and teams in transition make deals. I could see the Eagles moving up to pick up a player like CJ SPiller, to replace Brian Westbrook in that offense. Also making sense would be any of the top ten Defensive Ends and Outside Linebackers on their board. Good chance of a trade, in my opinion, if the right talent falls to #12. Chance of trade: Moderate to High 25. Baltimore I could see Baltimore targeting a Cornerback to replace Samari Rolle. I think if they bolster their DT/NT position, they can do it without trading up as far as #12. They might trade up to the mid teens for a Dan Williams, but not as high as #12, imo. The real bait we could dangle for them, then, is Joe Haden at #12. If they feel McCourty or another corner will be available to them at #25, and they are happy with that, I think they stand pat. Chance of trade: Low (even if Haden falls to us) 26. Arizona The glaring needs are at Defensive End and Outside Linebacker, though Inside Linebacker has also become a need with Dansby's departure. A Quarterback to develop for the future in case Leinart doesn't pan out would be a good idea, but I doubt the Cards try to move up enough in the 1st round to address that. Expect a developmental QB later in the draft. I could see the Cards moving up here if they see a stud Defensive End or Outside Linebacker available. Guys I could see them liking(though I don't necessarily) would include include Carlos Dunlap, Brandon Graham, Everson Griffen and Sean Witherspoon. I don't think they need to trade up to get most of those guys. They may trade up a couple spots if they see their target coming close to the #20 range and fear someone else will nab him, but they won;t jump all the way to #12 to meet their needs, imo. Chance of trade (with Miami): Very low 27. Dallas Not a desperate team in terms of talent, despite the so-so coaching job not reflecting the roster. Jerry Jones is a real wildcard here, so how do we predict Dallas' moves? With difficulty. I could see the Cowboys restocking their aging Offensive line, and more Safety help is necessary (rumors about one of their Safeties potentially being released have floated around). Would Jerry Jones love an Eric Berry or Earl Thomas back there? Of course. If Berry sniffs the #12 spot (never happen) we'd have a line up of suitors. More realistically, if Earl Thomas is there at #12, would we field an offer from Jerry Jones? Well, this Front Office has a close relationship with the Cowboys organization (thanks to Parcells, Sparano, and Ireland all moving over from there). That could make a trade for Earl Thomas possible. With the Cowboys not desperate for talent at too many positions, it may make ense for them to move up to ensure they get a high caliber player instead of several 'role players'. They are close to Superbowl-ready and need a couple more pieces. I doubt any Offensive Tackle would be attractive enough for Jerry to move up, as their impact would be delayed, and Jerry is all about winning Superbowls n-o-w. If Thomas is there at #12, I think there's a fair chance of a Dallas trade. Chance of trade: Moderate 28. San Diego A very interesting trade partner, the San Diego Chargers have lost talent at Nose Tackle, Runningback and Caornerback (Jamal Williams, LaDanian tomlinson, Antonio Cromartie). If they want CJ Spiller or Joe Haden, and those players are available at #12, there's a chance the Chargers make a deal with us. As for Nose Tackle, Dan Williams and Jared Odrick may be targets for them, but with Brian Price and Terrence Cody around I doubt the Chargers would move all the way up to #12 overall to fill that hole. If Haden and/or Spiller are on the board at #12 we could see something happen here. Chance of trade: Moderate 29. New Yawk Jets Again, following the intra-divisional trade rule, this is unlikely. You can square or cube the rule when the head coach of the team in question continually offends your entire fan base. Chance of trade = Chance of burrito escaping tractor-beam of Rex Ryan's gaping maw 30. Minnesota The Favre factor means Minnesota won't know if they need a Quarterback until well after the draft, so that rules out Minnesota trading up to get any quarterbacks qho fall. They do, however, need Safety help. Another possible Earl Thomas trade partner (Eric Berry if the impossible happens). Trade chance is decent if they like Thomas on their board and they believe Favre will return so they can compete for a Superbowl this year. Teams don;t trade up when they are in a rebuild with talent holes everywhere, but if they have all the pieces but are just weak at Safety, then it's worthwhile for the Vikes to give up picks to make a push for a Superbowl. Adding a talented ball-hawking Safety like Earl Thomas could help when they face a team like the Saints again. Chance of trade : Moderate (if Earl Thomas available) 31. Indianapolis Colts No glaring needs. Upgrades at Defensive, Cornerback and the Offensive line would help, but nothing is pressing enough to necessitate a trade. Chance of trade: Very low 32. New Orleans Despite winning the Superbowl, the Saints need help on the Defensive Line, at both End and Tackle. Also, if they lose Darren Sharper to Free Agency, they will need a Safety. Derrick Morgan, Dan Williams, JPP, and even Earl Thomas all hold some trade appeal for the Saints if they fall to #12. That said, I don;t see the Saints wanting to give up enough to bridge the trade-value gap between pick #32 and pick #12. Chance of trade: Low to moderate if one of the above is on the board at #12. Summary I feel our best chances of a trade are with the Titans, Steelers, Texans, Packers, Eagles, Cowboys, Chargers, and Vikings, . In most of these cases it's Joe Haden, the cornerback, who gives us the best chance of alluring trade bait. Lockdown corners are a scarcer commodity than possible pass rusher DE and OLB prospects. The other alluring piece of trade bait is ball-hawk Safety Earl Thomas falling to #12. **** Note - You may have noticed that I didn't include teams without first round picks like the Bears and Panthers, because I don;t feel they have the bargaining chips to attract us to a deal. The Dolphins won't put off draft picks to 2011 when this is a very deep draft and there are question marks about a lockout in 2011. Thus, any deal must involve 2010 picks (or a player) in my opinion.
I am not an "in the know" draft guy...but I do have a contact or two...I hear the Texans LOVE Ryan Matthews, I mean man crush top 10 talent crush...........if you are looking for a scenario that is under the radar....the Texans could be the team to make the leap and shock more than a few by taking and ensuring they get Matthews at 12. Go up 8 spots ...depends on the costs...but I think the player that is going to cause a stir is Matthews. Spiller is the flavor of the day and a legit player but from what I am hearing Matthews is the top 3 down back in some teams eyes.....there might be a few looking to move into 15-20 to get him....so it is not out of the realm of possibnility that someone makes the leap to 12....................
I think Mathews will be the 2nd back taken behind Spiller. I think Seattle passes on Spiller and drafts Mathews with their 2nd first rounder.
I can very well see that happening. Again IMHO if a team wants Matthews they will have to maneuver into the 9-13 range. If I were Miami I would take a 3rd and swap the Miami 6 for a Texans 5 and move down 8 spots.
I would like to see Claussen fall to #12 then a few QB needy teams could be looking to move up. And the team most likely would be Seattle who assuming they pass on him earlier could give up a pick to move up two slots and snatch him up. That same team (Seattle) could even move up to pick Dez if he is there....
Seattle wont let Clausen pass them the first time. Frankly, if either he or Clausen make it past Washington and Seattle I would be shocked. Nice write up. The Packers are very much a stand and take the best player type of team, while the Eagles generally seem to be more interested in trading back than up. The Jets have been the team lately that have been the movers in the draft, but hard to see us working with them. The Texans bear watching. Rick Smith and Gary Kubiak need to make the playoffs this year to still be employed next. If they feel a single player can push them over the hump, they may be quite willing to pull the trigger. A big chunk of trading down just depends on who is available though - very nice analysis!
as in everything, it all depends on who is still on the board at 12 .... IF Bryant/Berry/Thomas are still there .... i think we'd not be likely to trade down ... all else -- sure. There could easily be some players that other teams covet at 12. The only teams i don't think would be interested in trading up would be the NYG and PITT ... The caviat with Bryant is that we 'could' trade down, pick up additional picks and still pick up Marshall in a trade with DEN.
Very plausible Bpk (great write up BTW). And, this is probably our best case scenario IMO. Not only would we still get a real good prospect at #20, but getting their second round pick (#51) is a pretty sweet spot in round #2 (two picks ahead of NE's third 2nd rounder no less). Yeah, that would mean we'd pick in front of NE three out of the first four times they pick. That would be schweet!
I know about Matthews too. They feel he's not the more talented RB between him and Spiller but he is the better fit for their scheme.
Hadn;t heard that. Makes sense, I suppose. I don't know if they'd move up to 12 or not to get him. I think they'd have to leapfrog San Fran to make sure they got him, so maybe? Either way, the Texans look like a likely trade partner between haden and Earl Thomas as possible targets for them.
I can only see San Fran getting into the mix if they have deceided they want Earl Thomas, and that the Texans or someone else is going to trade ahead of San Fran's #17 pick to nab him. In fact, perhaps if Earl Thomas falls we play SF and the Texans off against each other a bit to get them to bite on a trade.
