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Baker mayfield.

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by pumpdogs, Jan 12, 2018.

  1. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Mayfield never got in trouble off-field?

    http://newsok.com/article/5539391

    BONUS: Can't evade the poe poe ... how is he gonna evade a DE?



    I certainly wouldn't accuse him of being a coke head like Manziel, but he just gives off bad vibes to me. His play imo is grossly overrated being a Big12 QB. Yeah, he did well against Ohio State too, but that was early in the season against a defense that also gave up 50+ to ****ing Iowa lol.

    His physical tools aren't on par with the other guys, he's short. Just meh for me.
     
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  2. CritMark

    CritMark New Member

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    Interesting observation about Baker Mayfield. Too bad the stats don't back up your conclusion. Certainly most of the defenses in the Bis 12 are not the greatest in the land. But Mayfield did face four high quality defenses this year. Ohio State, TCU twice and Georgia. Here are the stats from those four games:

    Completion % 69.2 - higher than ANY of the other QBs on your review. 12 TDs - 1 INT. 312 Yards per game average. A QB rating of 187.93.

    Please tell me your definition of smoked because those look pretty good to me. Oh yeah, he went 3-1 and the loss was a double overtime one.

    No problem if you don't like him. No problem if his cons are too much for you to want him as an NFL QB. But, with all due respect, at least get your facts right or state that your words are an opinion not based on facts.
     
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  3. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member

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    A couple of things....

    1. Welcome.
    2. The part you quoted was not my conclusion, it was an observation and outside of TCU and Texas (at times) the Big 12 was devoid of defense, as it usually is. However, stats at this level are almost irrelevant as you’re not looking at what the player has accomplished, you’re looking at how they project at the NFL level. You’re looking at the QBs mechanics, his accuracy & ball placement vs coverages, his level of competition, what the QB does well, what type of offense he plays in, the defenses he faces etc.
    3. Mayfield is not my favorite QB, but I do like him. I don’t like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson as pro prospects. I would not however object if we took Mayfield at 11 unless we took him over Rosen. I would lose my mind if we took Allen or Jackson there.
    4. I have no problem being corrected. I guess I was thinking of someone else when I wrote that. But I never stated my words were anything other then an opinion. Look how many times I said imo or in my opinion, or from what I see/watched (which infers an opinion).
     
  4. CritMark

    CritMark New Member

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    Thanks for the welcome. Let me apologize if that was not your conclusion, it read that way to me.

    How any player, but more so for QBs, translate to the NFL is always the question. Each of top QBs has their flaws. For my money, I like the fact that Mayfield has a large body of work where he improved every year. Also if you go back and look at the beginning of the season, many projected that he would have a difficult year. He lost 82% of his receiving yards and 64% of his rushing yards to the NFL at the end of his junior year.

    You can also make excuses for each of the top QB prospects, it's how you deal with the cards you are dealt. Again, for me at least, Mayfield stood out among the pack. I agree if both were available, take Rosen over Mayfield, but the gap between the two is not as large for me as it is for many.

    Also agree that taking Allen or Jackson over Mayfield would be an awful decision.

    Thanks again,
     
  5. CritMark

    CritMark New Member

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    It seemed to me that I had read an article about the Big 12 defenses not being as bad as the narrative. I was ale to locate it here: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21514646/numbers-say-big-12-really-defensive-problem

    Interestingly, the Big 12 ranked 4th of the power five in defense ahead of, wait for it, the Pac 12. So who faced easier defenses that Mayfield? That would be Rosen and Darnold.

    I am a finance guy by profession and a numbers junkie. I look at a lot of stats, accepting that they don't say everything. I could make a case for any one of those three as the number 1 pick in the draft but the easiest to do that with from a stats perspective is Mayfield and its not even close.
     
  6. zatrex99

    zatrex99 Member

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    For me, this is the first criteria for judging a QB, accuracy can not be taught. However, Mayfield plays in a spread offense (lots of bubble screens) so he needs to post a higher percentage than say Rosen who plays in a pro style offense, and he did.

    It's when you watch the tapes, you become really impressed with him. Excellent ball placement, usually leads the reader. Has excellent pocket presence, escapes pressure like it's as natural as breathing, but keeps his eyes downfield. Always seems to know where the third down marker is and tries to throw to the WR's beyond it. Seems to know where everyone on the field is.

    I know we're not going to draft him, I just hope the Jets or Buffalo don't.
     
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  7. CritMark

    CritMark New Member

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    Absolutely true on the screens. I will see if I can resurrect the source but late in the season Mayfield was also leading the nation in completion % over 20 yards and completion % will being blitzed.

    Could not agree more about watching him play. I think the thing that a lot of people miss is that his completion % is directly related to his ability to escape pressure. Giving receivers 4 or 5 seconds to work free instead of having to throw in 1.5 seconds is a monster advantage. Even if the 5 seconds gets cut in half in the NFL, it's still a longer window than most.

    I don't think there is any way he is on the board at 21 for Buffalo. Unless Denver takes him at 5, which is a possibility, I think he is on the board for the Jets. If he is, I don't see them passing on him. That assumes two things. First that no team trades up and that Rosen & Darnold go off the board before Mayfield in some order. While I think that is likely, I wouldn't bet the farm on it. There are more than a few voices that think he should go number 1.
     
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  8. CritMark

    CritMark New Member

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    Attached Files:

  9. zatrex99

    zatrex99 Member

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    I really want to see that stat if you can get it.

    If he can make the jump and produce at the level he did in college, they'll start calling Mr. First Down. I don't see the monster advantage going away by more than a second, because he senses the pressure and moves before it gets to him, you don't see him escape or fight the grasp as often.

    I think Cleveland is stupid if they don't take him at #1. I mentioned Buffalo because they have 1-21 and 1-22, 2-21 and 2-22 if they want to go up and get them. (Their owner was supposedly angry they moved back last year and didn't take Mahomes.) We should hope the Jets take Josh Allen who I think is a bust.

    But no matter what happens, we're not going to get him as much as I'd like to see it.
     
  10. CritMark

    CritMark New Member

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    See the link and image I attached from PFF in my prior post. It was after the regular season but before the bowl games. Here are the highlights.

    Adjusted Completion 81.5% Rank 1st
    Passer Rating vs pressure 112.3 Rank 1st
    vs Blitz 140.7 Rank 1st
    Short 136.0 Rank 1st
    Intermediate 137.7 Rank 2nd (Will Grier from West Virginia was 1st here, 12th in short & deep)
    Deep 133.1 Rank 1st

    BTW - Not sure Allen will be a bust but at best a multi-year project and not a 1st round prospect in my book.
     
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  11. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member

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    The pac 12 runs less gimmick offenses and at least a handful of teams run pro style defenses. The big 12 is all spread formations. As a result the defenses look awful. And according to your link the Big12 was the worst by the FPI standard for the previous 2 years while being 4th this year so my point stands. And that large body of work was largely built on bad defenses
     
  12. CritMark

    CritMark New Member

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    While that's true, in one respect you make my point. Yes there are a lot of spread offenses in the Big 12 and it does make the defenses look overly bad. Despite that, the Pac 12 defenses ranked worse in 2017. So if the Big 12 defenses look worse than they might otherwise and the Pac 12 does not, how bad must the Pac 12 defenses to have ranked worse given the handicap placed on the Big 12 defenses by the spread offenses as you state?

    Again, as you state, the defenses look bad because of the spread offenses. Can I restate that in the positive to mean if they played non-spread offenses they would look better to some degree? So you are saying the Big 12 defenses are not really as bad as the numbers indicate.

    To you last point, look at Mayfield's numbers this year against top 20 defenses. I posted it above. It was every bit as good as anything the other top QBs in this draft class played against anybody. If you want to discount the 'large body of work' you must accept the excellent performance against the top defenses. Maybe not, at least that seem obvious to me.
     
  13. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    I like Lamar Jackson and if he made it to the dolphins' 2nd round pick I'd love to see them take him. I'd plan for him being a QB long term, but I'd work him some at WR as well and get him on the field with Tannehill. On any given play, either one could take the snap and the other could be a legit receiving threat. I think learning the WR position would only help his development. I wanted to do something similar 2 years ago with Dak Prescott as an H-Back type. As it turned out, Dak didn't really need the seasoning I and many other assumed. A lot of spread/read option QBs were believed to need a lot of time to understand progressions and become real passers, but those guys have often been the ones who have developed most quickly. And to the extent Jackson isn't ready yet, I see no reason to assume he can't learn it. He's been a pretty successful passer in college and has some great natural tools. And his numbers are skewed downward because he saw more pressure than most, threw deep more than most, threw on the run more than most and had a lot more passes dropped than most. According to PFF, his adjusted completion percentage was 73, which is quite good. His passer rating under pressure was good and his deep passing numbers were good. And, of course, as a runner he's a devastating threat. At 6-3, 215 or so with great speed (4.34 at Louisville) and athleticism and obvious run after catch ability, he'd have the potential to be a major weapon as a receiver too while he learns to become an NFL QB. And if he doesn't learn to become a great NFL QB, a 6-3, 215 lb WR who runs a 4.34 has pretty real value in its own right.
     
  14. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member

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    That’s not that’s not what I am saying at all with regards to the 2nd paragraph. Causation does not equal correlation. Just cause you are awful at handling a particular type of coverage does not mean you are going to be better at handling another and you can’t just assume that. How do we know the defense won’t be just as bad or that any success they may have may be caused by ineffectiveness by the offense vs a particular scheme or coverage. Way to many variables to automatically hypothesize that.

    Your argument that the big 12 was better defensively also fails, at least for me, in another respect which is that the Pac 12 was a better conference this year from top to bottom. With only 5 H2H games there’s simply too small a sample size to make that determination so you would have had to watch games to do so. The big 12 doesn’t pass the eye test for me and was the weakest of the P5.
     
  15. CritMark

    CritMark New Member

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    Ok, let's see if I can put the whole 'Mayfied never played any good defenses' to bed. There are several measures of top defenses, for this exercise I used http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/defensive-stats because it takes in to account multiple factors, not just one like yards or points. Even with that, the teams in the top don't change much. I originally used the top 20 but expanded it to 31 (Notre Dame) to catch a few more teams. Here are the results:

    Rosen - Teams played = 1, Washington, Record 0-1, Att 21 Comp 12 = 57.1%, YPG = 93, TD 1 Int 0, Rating 110.1
    Darnold - Teams played = 3, ND/Texas/Ohio State, Record 1-2, Att 122 Comp 74 = 60.7%, YPG = 327, TD 5 Int 4, Rating 135.2
    Mayfield - Teams played = 5, Ohio State/TCU x2/Texas/Georgia, Record 4-1, Att 147 Comp 100 = 68.0%, YPG = 310, TD 14 Int 2, Rating 185.4

    Mayfield played more top defenses than the other two combined, had a better record including being the only one with a winning record (80% Mayfield vs 33% Darnold vs 00% Rosen), better completion %, more TDs per game and a QB rating 50 Points higher than the next closest QB.

    So anybody that wants to argue that the Big 12 defenses stink, I agree, but for 2017 at least, they ranked better than the Pac 12. For anybody who wants to argue Mayfield didn't play any tough defenses, the number simply don't support that. In fact, they say exactly the opposite.
     
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  16. CritMark

    CritMark New Member

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    Let's make sure we are clear here. I wasn't the one saying the Pac 12 defense was worse than the Big 12, it was ESPN. Please don't let me put words in your mouth but you seemed to accept that fact above when you said "And according to your link the Big12 was the worst by the FPI standard for the previous 2 years while being 4th this year so my point stands. And that large body of work was largely built on bad defenses" and took the 'large body of work position'. So you said it was worse the previous two year which left 2017 as a true and accurate measure. If you want to re-qualify the statement now you are free to do so but don't fault me for using your words to make my point.

    Similarly, I didn't say the spread offenses made defenses in the Big 12 look bad, you did when you said "The big 12 is all spread formations. As a result the defenses look awful."

    Clearly we are going to have to agree to disagree here but my last post on actual results seems to support my assertion that, for at least this one season, Mayfield outperformed the other two top prospects against quality defenses.

    Thanks for the respectful interaction.
     
  17. CritMark

    CritMark New Member

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    One final thought from me is that both conferences had some real bad defensive teams in them. In fact, using the source quoted earlier, both conferences had teams that fell outside the top 100! Here is that hall of shame:

    Big 12 = Texas Tech (101), Baylor (114) & Kansas (129)
    Pac 12 = Arizona State (106), Arizona (109), UCLA (117) & Oregon State (128)

    So there was some bad D being payed for all 3 prospects to face.
     
  18. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    I don't see how one would say Jackson has 4th round talent. He has a very good arm with an easy delivery and plenty of strength/velocity. His legs and running ability are obviously top notch and maybe best ever for a QB. His tools and talent are excellent. I guess one could believe he isn't NFL-ready, but that's true of most college QBs. And the truth is that the RPO QBs have actually adapted faster and better to the NFL than the more pro-style QBs. Compare the rookie passer ratings below among RPO and Pro-Style QBs:

    RPO
    Wilson -- 100.0
    RG3 -- 102.4
    Prescott -- 104.9
    Mariota -- 91.5
    Newton -- 84.5
    Watson -- 103.0


    Pro-Style
    Luck -- 76.5
    Carr -- 76.6
    Bradford -- 76.5
    Wentz -- 79.3
    Goff -- 63.6
    Trubisky -- 77.5

    There are a bunch of guys whom one could argue fit more into one or the other category, but they don't change the fact that in the last decade or so the RPO QBs have produced better faster than the more pro-style guys.
     
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  19. CritMark

    CritMark New Member

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    My apologies but I did find an error in my numbers for the three QBs against top 31 talent. My son also reminded me that given Rosen only had one game it wasn't a large enough sample size to be fair. His suggestion was I expand the analysis to the six games for each QB against the highest ranked defensive teams faced. So here is the corrected data with a more fair comparison. Each teams defense ranking is in (##)

    Sam Darnold: Record 4-2: W vs Stanford (35), W vs Texas (30), W vs Utah (39), L vs ND (31), W vs Stanford (35) L vs Ohio St (16). Average defense team ranking 31.

    Josh Rosen: Record 3 - 3. L vs Stanford (35), W vs COlorado (75), W vs Oregon (82), L vs Washington (5), L vs USC (60), W vs Cal (80). Average defense team ranking 56.

    Baker Mayfield: Record 4 - 2. W vs Ohio State (16), W vs TCU (15), W vs Texas (30), L vs Iowa State (27), W vs TCU (15), L vs Georgia (6). Average defense team ranking (19).

    So Mayfield faced the stiffest defenses in their toughest six games, he and Darnold had the same W/L record and Rosen faced the easiest competition and fared worse in W/L. Every one of the six Mayfield faced were ranked in the top 30 defensively, Darnold had 2, Rosen had only 1 with three others ranked 75 or worse!

    That's the team numbers. How did the QBs perform?

    Darnold 62.6 Completions. 14 TD/6 INT (2.33 td/int ratio), 330 YPG, 152.97 rating
    Rosen 62.9 Completions. 12 TD/4 INT (3.00 td/int ratio), 306 YPG, 142.95 rating
    Mayfield 68.9 Completions. 16 TD/2 INT (8.00 td/int ratio), 310 YPG, 180.92 rating

    Expanded data, same result. Far superior number by Mayfield against tougher competition that either other QB.

    Let me state very clearly, I am not saying Mayfield is a sure fire NFL star. What I am saying is given the body of work for each of these three, there is no reason to believe he is far, if at all, behind the other two as a NFL prospect.
     
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  20. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    welcome to the board bro.
     
  21. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think you're looking at 4 first round quarterbacks with Jackson being the biggest risk. I think Josh Allen is more in the Deshone Kizer range.
     
  22. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    I would not mind Mayfield at all. It's about time we got some personality in the QB room. Teams tend to do well when they put resources into the QB position. When Seattle doubled up by signing Flynn and drafting Wilson, they ended up winning that situation. Same with Washington when they drafted Griffin and Cousins in the same draft. You can never have too many QB's, and if all are good, then you ship one off for compensation.
     
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  23. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Luck, Carr, Wentz, Goff, Rodgers, and many others all run RPO's concepts in their offense as well. RPO (Run/Pass option) is a QB's decision to handoff to the RB, or pass to the intended target depending on the actions of the conflict defender.

    Did you mean to say RO? As in the Read Option where the QB is a threat to run after typically reading the EMLOS?

    *BTW, I agree with you on Jackson. He's a top talent at QB no doubt.
     
  24. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=- Club Member

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    This dude is Ryan Mallet. No thanks.
     
  25. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Baker Mayfield

    ✔@baker_mayfield6

    Just so everybody knows... I commented about playing for Miami because I was talking to a former Sooner in Kenny Stills. Everybody can relax, I will play anywhere that gives me a chance. I'm not picky, I will go anywhere and strive to uplift a franchise and win ball games.

    10h
     
  26. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    People seem to use these terms with different meanings. My understanding of how Read Option is used is that it is strictly a run concept -- the QB either hands the ball to the back or keeps it and runs. That's not quite what I am talking about. Your definition of RPO seems to make it a strict handoff or throw concept, and that's not what I'm talking about either. I guess I'm talking about offenses that either use both concepts, i.e., some plays have a hand off or QB run option and others have a handoff or pass option, or have combined them into one with a triple option. The QB run threat is a part of it, but the passing component is obviously the key part to the impact on passer rating. They are typically (or maybe always) spread offenses. My categories were less about exactly what type of offense the guy ran in college and more about my sense of general perception as to whether the QB was a "pro-style" QB or more of a college "running QB" even though virtually all of these guys arguably have elements of, or are capable of, both. The group that I characterized as "RPO," correctly or incorrectly, were the guys about whom one often heard questions about their ability to transition to an NFL offense, either due to single- or simple reads, running ability (or maybe just the color of their skin).
     
  27. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member

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    Say wha? Mallett was a statue. Granted i liked Mallett coming out but their playing styles or physical attributes are nothing alike
     
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  28. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Gotcha. Well explained as I see where you're coming from. In a general term they are just referred to as Spread QB's.
     
  29. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    "Spread" captures guys like Goff, Wentz, and Trubisky who may have played in similar offenses, but who few people, if anyone, really questioned whether they "looked the part." Whether or not that was because of skin color or something else . . . .
     
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  30. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Mallet was incredibly overrated that draft.. so very happy we didn’t go there, he accomplished more than I thought he would though, so kudos to him keeping himself in check and carving out a nice career as a backup..
     
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  31. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member

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    You were right on that. I remember liking him more then some of the players in that draft but some were pimping him as the next great thing.
     
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  32. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That sooner offense, man, I think if we’re really contemplating mayfield we should understand the scheme he comes from..I say that because as I’m studying him I’m like, who the hell is gonna run this offense in the NFL..

    https://blogs.usafootball.com/blog/...-s-offensive-schemes-have-the-sooners-rolling

    Whoever does sign him, maybe should think about making Riley an offer..

    Does anyone think that nfl coordinators are gonna try to adapt to a scheme that obviously fits this kids skillset..?
     
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  33. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Good read. Nguyen is excellent.

    I've seen some types of these creative route concepts (double slant whip, and the slant/wheel & post/wheel are more common relatively speaking) and their packaging in NE, NO, and, LA (Rams). Due to the pattern match, banjo, and other similar coverage that rely on reading the development of routes before declaring or locking on to a man, they manipulate the defender's keys. These stunts are harder to pull on NE b/c Belichick invented PM, and they have adjusted key reads to defend those concepts.

    Overall, like you stated, Mayfield seems to provide a lot of extra intangibles to play with for an experienced and creative OC.
     
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  34. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Mayfield is a trip, short and stocky, short arms, small hands, slow, attitude for days, and loves the ladies, but, plays with this uncommon tempo, great quick twitch play speed, like he knows the system so well he's a step ahead of everyone else...

    oh and stuff like this...''He's the best leader I've ever seen, he's special and its an honor to play with him''.

    his #1 draft pick tight end Mark Andrews.
     
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  35. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I've never thought he had small hands, and sure enough he doesn't. Measured 9.5 inches. Huge wrists. He's a thick guy. Not worried from a size standpoint.

    And I really doubt he's slow. I think he'll break into the 4.6's...IF he trains for it. Very possible he doesn't bother to train for it though.
     
  36. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin RIP Phinsational Luxury Box Club Member

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    Slow is not a word I'd use when describing Mayfield. Not saying he's fast but I definitely would not call him slow. Tom Brady is slow. I would in no way, shape, or form suggest that Baker moves like Tom.
     
  37. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    looks like a 4.75 guy
     
  38. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Solid
     

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