Part of overcoming all that was Brady for sure. But part of it was hidden roster talent. You acquire Danny Amendola taking a chance he will finally stay healthy. He didn't. It was a gamble and it didn't come out in their favor. But he DID play like 400 pass snaps and for those snaps I thought he was about the same player they thought they were getting when they signed him. At the same time Julian Edelman gets his opportunity and REALLY steps into it showing that they've had a hidden roster gem this whole time. That's the thing about whenever we'd evaluate the Pats drafting you have this guy is a bust this guy is whatever, this guy was awesome, etc. Except a year ago evaluating the Edelman pick probably looks a lot different than it does right now. Same with Charles Clay in Miami. I think the Patriots continue to roll with the punches because they manage their roster with vision for the future. That's not just some over generalized euphamism that means nothing. Here's where the rubber meets the road on it. The enacted a plan one year when they drafted both Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley. They were going to get the power ground game going again. At the time they had a wonderful passing game but they know these things cycle. Ridley and Vereen looked like they were working out OK so they augmented with a smart acquisition like LeGarrette Blount. You could see it this off season. They had been building the offense to be able to survive off a renewed power ground game, and that was going to help them managed through a down cycle in their skill position play. It did exactly that. This year their main tailbacks gained 2000+ yards on the ground on 4.7 yards per carry with 18 rushing TDs. They don't survive this down cycle of losing Hernandez, Gronk, Welker, etc...if they don't have that going for them. Yet it took years of planning for it to come to fruition. I don't know that they planned for a down cycle in their interior defensive line as they likely didn't imagine both Wilfork and Tommy Kelly (whom they like a lot) getting hurt this year. But you can sense that they had hoped to have an up cycle in their secondary coverage after some investments in the likes of Devin McCourty, Tavon Wilson, Duron Harmon, Logan Ryan and Adrian Wilson...in addition to some nice values that just fell in their lap like Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard. That wasn't really going the way they thought and so I think that's why the big spend on Revis and Browner. Anyway you want to know how they survive such bad things happening to them I think that's how. They have good long term vision and roster planning. They even survived Tom Brady getting hurt in the 1st game of the year back in 2008. They still went 11-5 that year.
In preparing for a downcycle in one area of the team, why do you think the Patriots plant seeds in another area of the team instead of try and replenish that existing strength? I guess in a way it's less risk---rather than swapping out younger players for existing older good players, they put in place young players in an area they are already not great in, which 'lessens the fall' if they don't pan out, while letting their existing strength ride out the cycle. Or are they also trying to buck their perceived tendencies to make them harder to game plan against? I could also see perhaps, like in the case of a power running game, potential assets being relatively undervalued, as the whole league seems to be shifting into more of a 'passing league' mode....
It's a timing thing, really. You've got guys in the flower of their prowess like Welker, Hernandez and Gronk...there's not a ton of room to start getting opportunities for younger guys. Look at Edelman. He didn't finally have that opportunity until this year. You could argue that it's really only when a position down cycles that you have the opportunity to throw a bunch of young investments at the position and see who really is going to be leading the team over the next five years or so. Look at the tight end position. Wasn't until Ben Watson left that they had the opportunity to toss two young players like Gronk and Hernandez into the fire and see what they had. I'm sure they viewed this year as the crucible for Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce too. I just think that at least with respect to Dobson and Boyce, they're going to be disappointed in what they really have for the team long term. Yet they come up all Edelmans anyway, somehow. But again that just goes back to picking good talent and having good long term vision. The next unexpected boon will likely come (IMO) from having placed a UDFA investment on Mark Harrison. But that's just a pet theory about a guy I liked tremendously coming out of Rutgers. It's really hard in the NFL to avoid cycles and just keep everything going unbroken. Understanding that is the way you are able to maintain good performance, IMO.
New England has a counter for a counter attack plan. We know teams are going to be nickel and dime vs us quite frequently, so let's invest in some RBs who can exploit that. They had 5 losses last year (Denverx2, Bengals in a monsoon, OT to the Jets, and in Miami) truth be told if it not for a second half COLLAPSE they would be 0-2 vs the Dolphins last season. So I agree completely NE is making counter moves to better handle Peyton Manning and yes....Ryan Tannehill. Miami played the Patriots very well last year for 6 quarters don't think Bill and crew are not aware of that. My question is, what have we done too counter NE? We actually blocked pretty well against them for the most part. Our DL is equipped with the talent to make Brady uncomfortable, but we need to be able to stop whoever NE plugs in from just running between the tackles all day long. Daniel Ellerbe, I'm looking at you.
I think you're right. Like I said to me the most natural counter is to take advantage of a depleted DL that now looks like they could even be without Vince Wilfork who wants to be cut or traded, a front seven that is definitely now without a Brandon Spikes...and just blast through them with an overpowering ground game that helps us to hit up smart, safe and efficient passes over the middle away from Browner and Revis. That's how you do it. That's how you counter them with our offense. When it comes to our defense I think as long as we still have the DL talent to buzz in Brady's ear, we'll have a chance. That is absolutely integral to the approach. But yes we do have to contain the ground game especially in the fourth quarter.
Yep, definitely.... which is why it's critical to build up areas of strength [like D-line] and then prioritize maintaining those strengths and persist in doing so even when temptation is telling you to shift focus to addressing a weakness at the expense of the team's strength. For me, the best way to avoid damage from cycles is to have either a franchise QB or a sustained triangle on defense [or both], with the triangle lining the points from DE to DE and back to FS and including everything in between- DT and ILB. IMO that becomes a sustainable core for years that allows you to endure cycles and move pieces in and out around them as the cap permits. You could probably call it the Ravens affect. I'm an advocate of using first round picks on the type of player you can't readily find in FA, like a ball-hawking or playmaking safety, a stud pass rusher in his prime, franchise caliber DT, or a top playmaking linebacker still in his prime.
Wilfork is such a huge loss for them. I know he was out this year, but you just don't replace a guy like that easily.
Interesting take Todd. I see it this way. There are two objectives to the game of football. Score points and prevent points. Beyond that the main objective is to score more points than you allow. You can do that two ways. Having a juggernaut offense or a shut down defense. Teams average in both areas tend to have a hard time winning. The goal is to obviously have superstars that fit your scheme at every position but that is unlikely. I personally feel a team needs a strong scheme and identity. Then players that fit those ideals.
