1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Best news I've read all day

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by MrPhinn, Nov 28, 2018.

  1. MrPhinn

    MrPhinn Member

    81
    78
    18
    Nov 28, 2016
  2. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,031
    2,829
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Firstly, that article is just a rehash of what’s been said about Tannehill for the last 3 or 4 years, so nothing new.

    Secondly, and far more importantly, if we decide to part ways with Tannehill what option is there available that will be an upgrade over him? The article points out his passer rating is currently 15th in the league, i.e. middle of the pack.

    Is there a FA QB who is likely to be available who will be better?
    The only solid proven QB available through FA in recent years has been Kirk Cousins, and he was only available because the redskins screwed themselves over. No one of that caliber is coming onto the market.. If there are no starters is there a backup who has shown signs that they could be a starter? When backups are allowed to walk it’s usually because the original team who sees them in practise every day don’t view them as a long term solution (see Osweiler, Brock)
    If there is a FA QB available will we have cap room to be able to win the bidding war for his services?

    My estimate of finding an upgrade over RT17 through FA is somewhere below 1%

    Next question
    Is there a QB we will be able to obtain via trade who will be a better QB than RT17? Maybe Derek Carr could be available, but whether he is any upgrade over Tannehill is debatable. But the cost of obtaining him would probably be a 1st round pick plus some more. The Browns probably could be persuaded to be parted from Tyrod Taylor, but again that’s not likely to be an upgrade. There might be a veteran QB at the end of his career, like Alex Smith last year, but at best that just pushes the problem back a year or two.

    My estimate of finding an upgrade over RT17 through trades is somewhere below 2%.

    Third question
    Is there a QB on the roster ready to step in and replace RT17
    I liked Luke Falk coming out of college. Reality check: he is a 6th round pick who was waived by the team who drafted him and had 1 month practice with the team before being placed on IR. That’s a huge leap of faith to say he will be an upgrade of RT17.

    Chance of Luke Falk proving himself better than RT17 next year. Optimistic case is 5% chance.

    Final question
    Is there a QB in the draft we can obtain who will be better than RT17?
    All reports are this year is a thin year for QBs. So the cost of trading up into a position to draft said replacement will be higher than normal because supply is short. So our chance to move up and draft near the top of the first round is close to zero. Then is there a chance of finding a Russel Wilson or Kirk Cousins in the mid rounds? Well technically it’s possible but it is very rare to find a better than average QB outside the first round.

    Chance of drafting an upgrade over RT17 in the 2019 draft is maybe in the order of 2%.

    It is very easy to get rid of Tannehill and replace him with a QB who will do worse.
    It is difficult to get rid of Tannehill and replace him with a QB of similar performance.
    It is going to be extremely difficult to find an upgrade over Tannehill.

    So why is the suggestion that Tannehill won’t be our starter next year the best news you’ve read all day?

    For the record I think Tannehill is not the saviour. I think he is a middling QB who needs the rest of the team performing at a high level to be effective. What I don’t see is an easy way to upgrade the position over and above what he is doing at the salary he is being paid.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2018
  3. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    3,142
    1,632
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    Great writeup Pauly I agree 100% even though imnot a tannehill fan. I don't see anyone who is going to replace him next year. We may draft one but it won't be in the first round. I believe we will go with a DE to put pressure on the QB and help this defense. I see us signing 1-2 Free Agnet OL and maybe a Safety / Linebacker.

    Tannehill needs to be replace but Gase i believe will be in the last year of his contract? So he will want to win now. He lives or dies with Tannehill. Tannehill is also in the last 2 years of his contract so they may just ride it out. I don't see us drafting on till 2020 Draft honestly.
     
    Pauly likes this.
  4. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    11,662
    7,163
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    Agreed. Unless another injury happens to take him out Tannehill will be the QB for the next year. It's easy to talk about dumping QB's, coaches, or <insert player>, but it's another thing finding a good replacement. Then when you factor in things like our OL still needing depth, and a number of starters becoming free agents this year - dumping anyone who's decent needs to be very carefully considered.

    Keep Tannehill, let's hope he stays healthy and gets in one full season with no injury complaints, and that he will either prove a success or solidify the notion that Miami need to move on, and if the latter, then see what happens with Gase. Will he get a shot with another QB or will Ross move on in both areas?
     
    Pauly likes this.
  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,855
    6,963
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    I'm surprised that you put Luke Falk at 5%. I'd think you'd have a better chance getting lucky with a QB in the draft than with Falk.

    But I don't know much. Lol
     
    Pauly and Surfs Up 99 like this.
  6. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,031
    2,829
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    I said the optimistic case is 5%, my more conservative number is closer to 1 or 2%.
     
  7. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

    282
    307
    63
    Jan 29, 2017
    United Kingdom
    What do you guys think of the Teddy Bridgewater rumours? Do you think it could be a goer and, more importantly, would he be any better than RT?
     
    Surfs Up 99 likes this.
  8. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    9,566
    3,091
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Austin TX
    Part of it, imo, is also just taking the physical act of moving on and committing to a new direction. Is there a clear, immediate upgrade? No, probably not. But the act of moving on signals to fans that we are ready to take a chance on getting better. I think most people understand it will be a process.

    The other idea to bring up is that while the available talent pool may not be deep, the teams needing upgrades are fewer in number due to big classes and FA shuffles in the last 2-3 years.
     
  9. mor911

    mor911 pooping

    6,159
    4,010
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Austin, TX
    I think the money you save swapping to an equivalently average QB can help in other parts of the game that we desperately need.
     
    Dorfdad likes this.
  10. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,031
    2,829
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Tannehill’s salary is already below average for a starting QB not on a rookie deal
    https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback
     
  11. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

    1,318
    638
    113
    Oct 22, 2013
    So CAL
    If we do move on, if its a for sure thing then let falk take some snaps and see what we have right there, i just looked at the schedules and the patriots are once again in line to take the 1st seed. KC has a couple tough games and lets face it andy reids teams like to fold like origami down the stretch. all NE has left is Minn and all afc east teams. I HATE THE PATRIOTS EVERYTHING FALLS THERE WAY ALL THE FREAKING TIME!!!
     
    eltos_lightfoot and Dorfdad like this.
  12. mor911

    mor911 pooping

    6,159
    4,010
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Austin, TX
    I guess my thought process is...

    first that chart doesn't show how the contracts are back loaded: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/ryan-tannehill-9818/

    Next, with Tannehill we know what we have. It is what it is. If you take a shot on someone else you might see something different. Maybe better, most likely worse. But at least you tried SOMETHING. But just paying Tannehill forever just because we're scared there's nothing better is silly to me.
     
  13. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    2,097
    1,583
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    New York
    You don't just "let a guy take snaps".
     
    resnor and mor911 like this.
  14. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

    1,318
    638
    113
    Oct 22, 2013
    So CAL
    how else would he get the ball from the center in the game?
     
  15. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    2,097
    1,583
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    New York
    Haha?
     
  16. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    1,311
    1,316
    113
    Nov 18, 2017
    just because you move on from Tannehill doesn't necessarily mean his replacement has to be an upgrade, the new guy can basically perform at the same level but at a far less cost. if it's a rookie playing like this in 2019 it's a lot easier to accept then a 8 year vet with a $26 mil cap number. if it's a pricy veteran like Fitzpatrick or Tyrod, even if we gave them a Cutler like deal for $10m and we used a top 10 pick on a QB we're talking about a combined cap number of what, $13m for the two? Cutting Tannehill with a June 1 designation alone saves almost $19 million, just for 2019. 2020 we save almost $20m. Or we can trade Tannehill and the $13 million in dead money.

    and this is assuming we actually spend good money on a vet, they could just go the cheap route and draft a guy and bring Brock back or bring in a Josh McCown, Brandon Weeden, Trevor Siemian, etc...

    the argument for keeping Tannehill is starting to sound a lot like the argument we heard for keeping Sparano, Philbin, and now Gase, that we might as well just stand pat because there isn't some guaranteed upgrade out there. Trade him, cut him, I really don't care at this point, just get him off the team.
     
    texanphinatic and bigballa2102 like this.
  17. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

    1,318
    638
    113
    Oct 22, 2013
    So CAL
    if we lose one of the next 2 im all for seeing what falk has to offer!! i agree any other cheaper option is better then another RT yr at his price tag, used the save dmoney on some good players.

    Dolphin fans always say this and have been saying it forever, noone out there is proven Here is an example Saban was proven in college right and he blew in the pro's noone is proven unless they get the right situation of power and front office. Even if we got john harbough there's no guarantee its going to work out in MIAMI, he had a great GM the whole time at Baltimore and now is out and hes probably gone. im just saying.
     
  18. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,506
    10,284
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    Isn't Falk on IR?
     
  19. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    2,517
    1,187
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    I think the reality is that Gase will need to win in 2019 (assuming no collapse to end this year) so he sticks with Tanny and hopes he stays healthy (and the rest of the team for the most part) and the offense finally gels (in the top 15 of the league at least). A better DC would be a good idea too.

    Long term, I think trading/releasing Tanny would be better. Let Fales/Falk/vet backup play the 2019 season, trade off the 2019 first rounder for a first in 2020 and use BOTH those picks to move up and grab the rookie QB you believe in. By 2022 you should know if you have your franchise QB. Does that sound like a plan Gase would embrace? Only if he gets a contract extension, but I'm no longer comfortable with the idea that Gase is a QB Whisperer and can put together a top 10 offense.

    The long term fix is risky if you get the wrong QB, but if you succeed your team is set up for success for the next 12-15 years. Sticking with Tanny gives you a fringe playoff team for the next 4-5 years, but unless you end up with an elite defense along the way, you won't win a Super Bowl -or even get close to one.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
  20. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    2,517
    1,187
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Sadly, yes.
     
  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    95,834
    48,522
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I’m in on Bridgewater..

    Love the story, love the hometown connection..love the intangibles..think the game is better than Ryan.
     
  22. mor911

    mor911 pooping

    6,159
    4,010
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Austin, TX
    Not trying to turn this into political anarchy, but I'd give Kaepernick a shot at this point. He'd be cheap as all hell and he can't be much worse than Tannehill.
     
  23. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    95,834
    48,522
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    100 percent on board with that next year..
     
    resnor and danmarino like this.
  24. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,506
    10,284
    113
    Sep 4, 2014

    I wanted them to give him a look before they signed Cutler.

    However, I'm not sure Kaep wants to play anymore. Of course he says he does, but I think he's happy with just banging his SJW GF and suing the NFL...lol
     
  25. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    3,142
    1,632
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    Even if you wanted to he would have been out of the nfl what 3 years? No thanks I’ll roll with a rookie before I’d invite that PR nightmare to Miami!
     
    resnor likes this.
  26. Triggercut

    Triggercut Well-Known Member

    687
    359
    63
    Aug 12, 2011
    TL;DR - Tannyhill is bad, just not bad enough.
     
    Pauly likes this.
  27. Triggercut

    Triggercut Well-Known Member

    687
    359
    63
    Aug 12, 2011
    Will have to outbid Jacksonville. With them being a season removed from the championship game there's more potential for a SB there than in Miami with a possible lame duck coach and managment turmoil.
     
  28. After sunday's game I dont know what else to say about this team, Gase, Tannehill etc. I keep trying to keep the faith in both of them yet i will say this... We dont have a clue what a very healthy Dolphins team could have done these last 11 games.
    I honestly doubt they would have been 5-6 or worse. Remember the first couple games of the season with wilson, grant and a healthy Oline? They were running the ball averaging almost 10 yards a carry as well as all those unique plays we saw on offence for long completions and drives? Sadly the Patriots started the downward spiral with that blow out in NE.
    The frustration and brutality we've seen since that game is what we've been used to since 1999.
    I will still watch the rest of the season and follow the team just like I have since Marino was drafted, as i wait for another good draft and look forward to see what a healthy Dolphins team can do.
     
    resnor and adamprez2003 like this.
  29. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    95,834
    48,522
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    All true stuff.. he wants to be a dolphin though
     
    Surfs Up 99 likes this.
  30. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,031
    2,829
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Alternatively, Tanny is sort of OK, but it’s hard to get better than that at the QB position.
     
    resnor likes this.
  31. Triggercut

    Triggercut Well-Known Member

    687
    359
    63
    Aug 12, 2011
    Maybe they offed all these big contract players this past offseason to make room for Bridgewater's demands this offseason? Gave Tannehill one last chance, knowing he'd do what he do, make an easy call on RT and bring in TB. Does the messageboard give a collective applause?
     
  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,855
    6,963
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    I can't get jazzed up for Bridgewater. I don't view him as an upgrade to Tannehill. He's another QB that can get you to 8-8 purgatory. If we're moving on from Tannehill, I guess that's fine. I'd rather roll with Falk or something, or even Osweiler, and then grab a QB in 2020.

    And it freaking feels weird to type "2020."
     
    Fin-O, mbsinmisc and Bumrush like this.
  33. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    22,015
    20,559
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    What a long, strange trip it's been for you.

    I realized the other day why Tannehill will never be elite or even close to it. His demeanor is just too mellow to be a consistent winner. I'm not looking for another intense mother****er like Dan Marino, but for God's sake it would have been nice to see Tannehill get fired up or upset more often. After the crushing loss to Indy he seemed almost nonchalant about it. Yes he cried when he got hurt in 2016, and yes he's a swell guy, but when I look at him I don't see a winner or leader of men. Joking around in the press conference a few days later and sticking to the company line about audibles doesn't help either. People need to shake things up when the status quo continues to fail and Tannehill is too much of a robot to influence change.

    He'll have a great post football career as a doctor and will probably lead a great life given all the money he has made but I doubt he'll ever match up to his god given talents. It's a real shame.. And hopefully won't be a matter of discussion next year.

    He's part of a culture that is happy collecting paychecks and calling it a day. Suh was the highest paid leader of the movement on defense and Tannehill is the highest paid leader of the movement on offense. One is gone and the other will gone shortly. This team needs leaders that want to win at all costs and that have a competitive spirit that outweighs the financial rewards of playing.
     
    resnor likes this.
  34. Triggercut

    Triggercut Well-Known Member

    687
    359
    63
    Aug 12, 2011
    I would see it as a way to get Tannehill out without the complications of him having to back up a rookie. Bridgewater, if he works out it's great, if he doesn't, he was always thought of as a bridge to the 2020 rookie. He's already been a back-up so there's no threat if he has to take a back seat.
     
  35. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    8,302
    6,413
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Melbourne, FL
    And just what would such a move do to the rest of the offense? Those 10 other players would be looking at the coaching staff asking, "what in the hell are you guys doing?"
     
    resnor likes this.
  36. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    1,156
    975
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    I dont really think so.

    Most players understand, Id hope, that the front office of a team is trying to improve. Its not like bringing in Cleo Lemon for full tank mode. Its arguably an improvement.
     
  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    8,302
    6,413
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Melbourne, FL
    Ok, so you’re saying that bringing in Bridgewater just for a year until one of the 2020 prospects can be drafted in place of Tannehill is a step forward? If you’re dumping Bridgewater, then what’s the point in bringing him in in the first place?

    Makes no sense at all. If your plan is to draft in 2020, might as well hold on to some continuity
     
  38. Triggercut

    Triggercut Well-Known Member

    687
    359
    63
    Aug 12, 2011
    If Bridgewater does well at QB for Miami then you don't have to position your team to draft a top QB in 2020. That pretty much what I implied with him working out at QB. If he doesn't work out the team will do poorly and he would have competition from the 2020 draft. It seems obvious to me that getting a QB and moving on from Tannehill this year is the only way to save the whole front office/coach at the end of next year. If they keep Tannehill with no competition and it's another 8-8 season they are gone.
     
    djphinfan likes this.
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    12,855
    6,963
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Does anyone actually think that Bridgewater can be a long term solution? I know I don't. I don't see the point in dumping Tannehill for Bridgewater, to then move on from Bridgewater in 2020. Like, if we move on from Tannehill, then just roll with Osweiler for 2019.
     
    mbsinmisc and Pauly like this.
  40. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

    37,248
    14,556
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    new york ciity
    the reason people want bridgewater is they're terrified the dolphins finally have a year where they stay healthy and Tannehill takes the team into the playoffs and then gets another five year extension along with gase
     

Share This Page