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Bleacher Report Has Miami @ 32

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by PhinFan1968, Jul 21, 2014.

  1. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    At the risk of making some haters feel good about themselves, I'm gonna post this anyway...simply because it's so damn hilarious.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2132710-nfl-power-rankings-start-of-training-camps-edition/page/2

    "Two months ago, I put the Miami Dolphins on the bottom of the post-draft power rankings...

    ...Dolphins fans won't like to see this ranking again, but it's where I feel they belong."


    Those are the opening and closing lines, enjoy the junk in the middle in all its glory. Some fair points, some contextually deficient reaches, overall: standard BS jibberish.

    I needed a good laugh today.
     
    Alex44 likes this.
  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    You should re-name the thread "Ty Schalter Has Miami @ 32".

    Bleacher Report has an entire stable of local and national writers, some not even paid. Ty Schalter does not represent the Bleacher Report organizational position on the Miami Dolphins.

    Also, given his stance on the Dolphins being #32...he really did choose a pretty hilarious cover picture. Kudos for that.

    Vegas consistently seems to have us in the #24 to #26 range and I think I would agree with that, pending clarity on what changes Bill Lazor has in mind for the offense. Also pending their solution to the Pouncey dilemma.
     
  3. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    I like how he basically talks about nothing on the field except Wake and Pouncey. Cam Wake -could- lose a step? Any player -could- but Wake isn't a guy who is going to burn out at 32. Pouncey will hurt but Albert should help just as much. Line can't be any worse than last season. Period.

    DJ being suspended sucks but luckily we still have OV and Wake to smooth the suspension over.

    Through that media circus he talks about...we STILL werent the worst team last year or even close. Why would we be the worst now?
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  4. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    I thought most people here loved what Bleacher Report usually writes. I guess this will change that.
     
  5. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Well, IMHO, BR posted and hosted it, so they own it. I think most people would see it as a BR article...since that's where it is...and it didn't start off with "Independent Analyst Ty Schalter thinks..." therefore representation would be the normal assumption, would it not?

    Edit: Oh...and the "Copyright © 2014 Bleacher Report, Inc. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BleacherReport.com is part of Bleacher Report - Turner Sports" kinda takes ownership too no? I think your articles represented them better by the way.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2014
  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    So much of the bear case on the Dolphins hinges on the changes to the offense with Bill Lazor, and yet so much of the bull case hinges on that as well. It makes for a really interesting season and I think I might enjoy seeing which direction things break.

    If you're going to make the bear case then it's not that difficult to do. You have a potentially inferior stable of running backs and potentially inferior stable of offensive linemen switching to a very run-dependent offensive system similar to the one run by the Philadelphia Eagles last year. What do I mean by run-dependent? You have to look at the Eagles' tendencies. They ran the football in situations where other teams would pass the football. Most teams won't run on 3rd & 2, and they are even less likely to run on 3rd & 3. The Eagles not only ran on those downs, they ran on 3rd & 4 and 3rd & 5. Brilliant if it works, but what if it doesn't work because your inferior players blow it? Then you've got fans throwing sh-t at their televisions accusing Joe Philbin/Bill Lazor of being Kippy Brown re-born.

    The Eagles married this with a passing attack that held the football longer, waiting for more potent crossing routes and deep routes to develop. Lucky for them they had one of the best OLs in the business pass protecting for Nick Foles, and Foles himself was shockingly good at dealing with pressure. Will the Dolphins take the same approach with an OL that has up to three guys on it that haven't yet played an NFL game, and a quarterback who was criticized often a year ago for his handling of pressure and is kind of mediocre at dealing with it? That could be painful, especially if the ground game is proving to be a net negative as far as dictating what downs and distances the passing game has to deal with. I doubt the Dolphins could manage to repeat the 59 sacks they took a year ago, but the sack PERCENTAGE could be even higher in this scenario, despite having (on paper) better talent on the OL.

    Then again the bull case for the offense hinges on the possibility that the coaching between Bill Lazor and John Benton is just so good, and the fundamentals of what Philadelphia established a year ago are so sound, the approach so novel and unexpected, that it DOES all fall into place. If Tannehill does get the time he needs then the increase in play-action passing should help his efficiency as he's been a much better passer in play-action plays than regular dropbacks. The option concepts which Miami seems to be installing could make up for perceived talent deficiencies when it comes to the ground game. The reliance on pre-snap movement (if successfully pushed through Philbin's objections) could do as the laity imagines, confuse defenses and keep them on their toes.

    On defense I think a lot of the bull/bear case actually depends on the linebackers unit. That unit will feature the same actors as the unit from a year ago that was a big weakness, however they're all now playing different roles...and those roles may be better suited for them. The ability to defend the run absolutely took a hit with the loss of Paul Soliai, and I do not buy for one second that Earl Mitchell steps right into that role and they don't miss a beat as far as run defense goes. If the dam breaks on the run defense then that will put the pass defense (which is what really matters) into difficult down and distance situations, and that's how that death spiral could begin. But the linebacker unit has the capability of rendering the loss of Soliai moot, if the players are able to be more aggressive, intuitive and disruptive. That's what the coaches are hoping for by moving Misi to the middle and flipping Ellerbe and Wheeler. If they play like the players they are paid to be, those linebackers could lead a defensive resurgence that sees the unit become a true top unit.
     
    DPlus47, Sceeto, dolfan32323 and 3 others like this.
  7. GMJohnson

    GMJohnson New Member

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    Vegas lines are not predictions of where teams will finish, they're based on what will bring in equal $$$ on both sides aka public opinion.

    Anyone wanna take take a stab at how Miami is 24-26th in Vegas with a win total set at 8? Are 25 teams going .500 this year?
     
    mbsinmisc, Larry Little and Boik14 like this.
  8. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Agreed. Vegas has 12 teams with win totals lower than ours with 3 tied. That puts us at somewhere between 20 and 16.
     
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  9. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And that makes sense (the 16 to 20 part) given our record last year, and possible improvements. Not no damn 32. I personally have us 16 to 18 with slight reserve depending on if the O line can be at least decent. If they are, watch the F out.
     
    GMJohnson likes this.
  10. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=- Club Member

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    Anything more useless than pre-season rankings?

    Most of us need pre-season rankings like we need a third anus.
     
    CaribPhin, mbsinmisc and padre31 like this.
  11. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    pre-season rankings posted on Bleacher report?

    Might as well say, "Drunk college guy has Dolphins ranked 32"
     
    MikeHoncho likes this.
  12. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    How did philly improve their oline so quickly?. It was trash in 2012. They added Lane Johnson (who kinda sucked) and who?
     
  13. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    *lbsfinest likes this*
     
  14. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    I honestly don't get a lot of the hate, I tend to enjoy a lot of their stuff. It's not pulitzer prize winning, but I feel that way about most writings today. (Yes, I'm a bit of a snob.)
    Having said that, I'd still say this article/ranking is bull****. That's just me though.
     
  15. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Well, you have 4, get over it... ;)
     
    MikeHoncho likes this.
  16. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    And alas, the myth continues.
     
  17. DHPVW

    DHPVW DuB addict

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    Bleacher Report is the National Inquirer of the sports world. They have got even more ridiculous as of late. I hate reading almost anything they put out anymore. It's just laughable
     
  18. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would never be complete with my second one though.
     
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  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    IMO, this is one of the seasons where I would not be surprised if Miami is 11-5 and wins the first round of the playoffs or if they are 5-11 and the wheels come off.

    There are a lot of things that can go wrong which could derail this season. However there are enough things that can go right, that are possible and decently probable for the Dolphins to take the next step.
     
    DOLPHAN1 and PhinFan1968 like this.
  20. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Who likes Bleacher Report? Most of the stuff on it is terrible trash.
     
  21. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    We need that to happen. For it to be either very good or very bad. Another year of 7-9 or 8-8 or 9-7 would leave this team with more difficult decisions, lots of maybes and what-ifs like we've seen for almost a decade. Obviously a great year would be sweet, but a really terrible season isn't a bad thing at all if you're thinking big picture. Need answers at QB and HC this year.
     
  22. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    According to football outsiders Philly had the 31st ranked o-line at pass protection.

    I would also like to see a link to Vegas having us ranked 26th.
     
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  23. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Gist for the mill, do think we do have a lot of questions, especially on the offensive line

    My general rule is more than 3 questions heading into a season means 8-8 barring some breaks or Tannehill going to the next level

    -offensive line
    -lb corps
    -Sturgis,

    All legit questions heading into the season
     
  24. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You've got to use pure logic here...oline and linebacker unit can't get worse with the additions of more talented players and the switching of positions so that truer skillsets can be deployed,
    I think folks keep forgetting that Clabo and Martin were utterly useless pieces of dookie, and our left guard situation was just as bad..or they don't realize how bad the dookie stunk.
     
  25. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I think he's coming from more of a "haven't proven" angle, which is fair. I tend to agree with you though...how could it be worse?

    The LBs are aligned better as well IMHO. I get excited when I see somebody starving for knowledge like Misi...can't teach those kinda intangibles...there has to be a NEED within that player, and he's showing it.

    Sturgis? Well, he was good, then inconsistent, then bad. I'm hoping he just had deer-in-the-headlights syndrome and needed to acclimatize himself to the NFL. I expect a better % from him, else we need to look FA. I was one of those OK with Carp going and keeping the rook...did NOT expect him to drop off like he did.

    Off topic, but MAN...I just have the sneaking feeling we're going to destroy the Pats week 1...I get all jittery just thinking about it!! Wake and OV are gonna pull the Malachi Crunch on Marcia and she's gonna folk like a lawn chair!!! I don't wish injury on the man, just a good old fashioned *** whoopin'.
     
    DPlus47 likes this.
  26. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Sturgis came into camp with a groin issue (pretty much the whole draft class seemed to have one injury or another) was good until he was forced to make a tackle in the Ravens game then he went to ****, I believe it was his next kickoff that went out of bounds and his field goal percentage went way down. It could be coincidence but I think he re-aggravated the injury while making the tackle. I feel like Sturgis is going to bounce back this year and he could be the key difference between playoffs or not.
     
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  27. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Sort of, cannot assume "new" will mean "better than", I do expect a rebound on the Lb corps tho let's be honest here, linebackers generally do not win or lose games for a team, and do think even Garner at Center is not the end of the world, we will see a new OL and offensive system, Albert and Shelly were upgrades, James is a Rook and LG is not exactly proven.

    All the more reason to be excited for THill, even with a terrible OL he produced our best season at Qb since #13 played here


    Sturgis on the other hand, can lose or win games

    The other issue I have is the alignment of the D, think about this, they are designed to get after the Qb which is great the problem is the opponent will also know this and run the ball, unless the offense generates leads that strength on the D won't matter b/c the other team won't have to pass, this is why I think losing Big Paul hurts us more than ppl realize
     
  28. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Interesting. I thought it was kind of miraculous that Philly's oline went from terrible to great, as has been suggested.
     
  29. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Odds to win the Super Bowl on Bovada are currently 66/1, tied with the Houston Texans and New York Jets. There are only 6 teams with worse odds.

    That literally equates to #24 to #26 in the league.

    Furthermore, there are team props on odds of making the playoffs. Miami's odds are +350 yes, -500 no. There are only 6 teams with odds stacked further than Miami against making the playoffs. And there are two teams that are tied with Miami's playoff odds.

    That implies, you guessed it, a #24 to #26 ranking in the league.

    The prop that doesn't quite fit is the total wins over/under. But there are problems with this. First off the line was set prior to Mike Pouncey's injury, and unlike Super Bowl and Playoff odds, Vegas is very reluctant to change win totals because they're worried about being sided or middled. They HAVE changed the odds to -145 on the Under and +115 on the Over...and that's a significant shift.

    Second, the win totals are a function of the power ratings of each team, compared against each other for each game, and modified according to home field. They're basically a mathematical equation based on those things. What that means is that the win totals are not necessarily a direct reflection of the power ratings. Strength of schedule and the details of which games are played at home and which away very much come into that.

    Third, the odds makes it VERY difficult to tell the difference between Miami 8.0 (-145 Under) and another team like the Washington Redskins' 7.5 (-130 Over). In fact, in all likelihood, they have the Redskins ahead of the Miami Dolphins. There are only 7 teams with win totals set at 7.0 or less. Miami is CLEARLY at the bottom of the teams with win totals set at 8. So there's no questioning whether they are "tied" with the Chargers, Chiefs or Giants. They're not. Miami is clearly marked to be below them. So the question comes down to ranking between Miami and the 5 teams that have 7.5 win figures. For example the Rams are at -155 on the Over. Similarly, Houston and Arizona are set at -150 on the Over.

    This all implies that Miami's win total projection actually comes somewhere around #23 to 24...not at all far away from the #24 to #26 projections implied by the other props.

    So yes...Las Vegas currently has the Dolphins somewhere around #24 (or perhaps you wish me to broaden that to #23?) to #26. And anyone that tries to convince you that Vegas sets their initial lines according to where they think the market will strike a 50/50 balance, is selling you a load of bullsh-t. Period. Exclamation point. Talk to true Vegas insiders, or former odds makers, as I have. Don't just spout bullsh-t based on nothing in particular.
     
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  30. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    I agree, Vegas thinks we would average about 7.7 to 7.8 games if you could run the season out over a million iterations.

    As for Super Bowl ranking the site I'm looking at has us 41-1 with 8 teams getting better odds and six other teams at 41-1. So that site has us 18-24 which is in line with the over under totals. Furthermore this site has us 19-1 to win the AFC Championship, or go to the SB with 12 teams getting better odds than us and one tied, so 19-20, again in line with the over under prop.
     
  31. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I'd have to question that site given that 5dimes has Miami at 60-1 and Bovada has them a 66-1.

    Also it's not entirely wise to compare an AFC team's odds of winning the AFC with an NFC team's odds of winning the NFC. The equations make that a bit of a red herring as they're changed to be relative to within the conference.

    You could make the case that some books have Miami at about 22, that some books have Miami at about 24, and others may have Miami at 26.
     
  32. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Its Party Bets. They've always been right in line with Vegas odds during the season so I don't know. They do have Miami at 7.5 right now with extra juice on the under.
     
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  33. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Wow. I haven't seen that. Thanks for the tip. I wonder what kinds of other lines they have because the stuff you're describing is definitely out of whack from what I'm seeing!
     
  34. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    I just realized they don't do pushes so they set everything to have an outright winner.
     
  35. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Ah weird! But also kind of cool.

    It's telling that even after moving down from 8.0 to 7.5 they still have the juice on the Under.
     
  36. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Maybe I'm not using the term juice right, with this 7.5 line you win $115 on a $100 bet on the under whereas the other line at 8 had you winning $100 on $140 bet on the under (unless those numbers have since changed). Essentially both lines end up being like 7.75 actual.
     
  37. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I didnt say new, I said more talented..and there's no question in my mind there is way more talent at the tackle positions, and at the left guard position, you take that, you coach it up with better coaching, and you have better odds of them being a lot better eventually..

    trust what you see, and quite frankly compared to what we saw with our own eyes last year and how freakin bad that oline was, I'll take my chances with my projection..

    I know there are issues with the team, but having a better oline this year is not one of them.."better Than last year", doesn't mean All great and everything is roses.
     
  38. finyank13

    finyank13 Reality Check

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    This guy has St. Louis at 15.....:lol:
     
  39. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Thing is, we have no basis for pessimism or optimism, I have made no secret of not being a huge fan of Pouncey, it is the other positions on the OL and a new scheme and leadership questions that need answering.

    That can only happen during games
     
  40. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Thing is, we have no basis for pessimism or optimism, I have made no secret of not being a huge fan of Pouncey, it is the other positions on the OL and a new scheme and leadership questions that need answering.

    That can only happen during games

    Personally I see the elements for an explosive offense, Wallace, Miller, Clay even Bline and an offense can work even with a medicore offensive line, I personally feel Wallace is as explosive a player as there is in the league
     

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