I will start by saying I was a big fan of the trade that brought Brandon Marshall to the Dolphins. I first saw him when my beloved Nevada Wolfpack (alumnus) beat UCF in the Hawaii Bowl in 2005 by a score of 49-48. Brandon was a man among boys catching 11 passes for 230 yards and catching 3 TD passes. Brandon was clearly the best player on the field that day. I thought the Broncos got the "steal of the draft" by selecting him the 4th round. I honestly thought we were getting the 3rd best WR in football behind only Johnson (Hou) and Fitzgerald when Ireland traded for him. But the more I watched Marshall on the field, the less of a fan of Brandon I became. Fans much smarter than myself let me know I was clueless when I mentioned Marshall isn't all that on the forums. Those in the know usually referred to Brandon's 86 catches and 1,104 yards in 2010 and 81 catches 1,214 yards in 2011. Of course, not much was said about his lack of TDs and his drops were dismissed being thrown at the end of his fingertips and difficult catches that he shouldn't be expected to have made. Although, the national experts certainly disagreed that Marshall shouldn't have made those catches. When I first saw the trade yesterday I thought "good for Ireland to come to his senses and cut the Dolphins losses"...addition by subtraction, besides freeing up cap space and getting a couple of 3rd round picks. The Dolphins are going to follow Philbin's plan of having a team of hard-working, high-character guys that play the game the right way. But many of the fans on the forums and the "professional writers" were saying what a bad trade it was to only get two 3rd round picks and have been asking "How are the Dolphins going to replace Marshall?" and it was a bad move unless it results in the signing of Peyton Manning. More proof that Ireland is a ****ing idiot according to those that seem to despise the man. I was left scratching my head, what appears to be a chronic condition directly related to spending time on the forums..., so I decided to check the numbers to see if I was just crazy for thinking what I saw on the field was one of the most physically gifted and talented players ever to wear a Dolphin uniform actually hurt the Dolphins chances of winning, not helped them. The following is what I found: Under the Ireland/Sparano regime lasting 4 seasons (2008-2011): Miami's Overall Record: 31-33 (plus 0-1 in playoffs) Miami's record without Brandon Marshall: 19-15 (.559 winning percentage) Miami's record with Brandon Marshall: 12-18 (.400 winning percentage) Miami's PPG (Points Per Game) Offense 2008-2011 (64 games): 20.4 Miam's PPG without Brandon Marshall in 34 games: 22.0 Miami's PPG with Brandon Marshall in 30 games: 18.6 Here are the yearly breakdowns of PPG over the Ireland/Sparano years with leading WRs making an impact prior to Marshall becoming a Dolphin for that year in parentheses: 2008: 21[SUP]st[/SUP] at 21.6 (Ted Ginn Jr., Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess) 2009: 15[SUP]th[/SUP] at 22.5 (Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo, Ted Ginn Jr., Brian Hartline) 2010: 30[SUP]th[/SUP] at 17.1 (Miami played 2 games without Marshall and averaged 21.5 ppg … in 14 games with Marshall playing Miami averaged 16.4 ppg) 2011: 20[SUP]th[/SUP] at 20.6 Of course, the most common argument for Brandon Marshall supporters is "look who the QBs are that are throwing him the ball." The following is a breakdown of the QBs under Ireland/Sparano: The beloved Chad Pennington: Chad Pennington regular season record as Dolphin starter and no Brandon Marshall: 11-8 Chad Pennington regular season record as Dolphin starter and Brandon Marshall: 1-0 (Pennington threw 2 passes before hurting his shoulder. Chad Henne came in and threw 28 passes before hurting his knee and Thigpen threw 6 passes in 29-17 win over Titans) Everybody’s favorite whipping boy Chad Henne: Chad Henne record as Dolphin starter: 13-18 (one win credited Pennington as starter...Titans game, but should be credited to Henne and one loss credited to Henne as starter but should be credited to Moore...Chargers game) Chad Henne record as Dolphin starter without Marshall: 8-7 (PPG…24.0) Chad Henne record as Dolphin starter with Marshall: 5-11 (PPG...17.4) Wow…winning record without Marshall and losing record with him, as well as 6.6 less ppg when Marshall plays. Who brought who down? Looks like Henne was doing pretty well as the Dolphin QB when the focus was on spreading the ball around and not targeting Marshall so much. (Side note: Miami was only 1-6 in 2011 when Brandon Marshall was targeted 9 times or more and 5-4 when targeted 8 times or less). Tyler Thigpen had one start with Brandon Marshall: 0-1 (0.0 ppg…shutout against Bears) Matt Moore record with Brandon Marshall: 6-6 (21.6 ppg) (Moore should be credited with loss given to Henne. Came into game 1[SUP]st[/SUP] quarter, ball at 50 yard line and scored tied 0-0. Miami scored on drive to take 7-0 lead) Keep in mind that Moore got to go up against the who’s who of bad defenses in ppg…Philly ranked 10[SUP]th[/SUP], KC 12[SUP]th[/SUP], NE 15[SUP]th[/SUP], Dallas 16[SUP]th[/SUP], Jets 20[SUP]th[/SUP] (2 games), Washington 21[SUP]st[/SUP], Denver 24[SUP]th[/SUP], Giants 25[SUP]th[/SUP], Oakland 29[SUP]th[/SUP], Buffalo 30[SUP]th[/SUP] (2 games). Then when I compared Marshall to WRs on other teams what I saw was “The Beast” that NEVER was for Brandon Marshall. The following are career stats of a few WRs to compare alongside Brandon Marshall’s when it comes to TD production. This is just a sampling as there are plenty of other WRs who put Marshall to shame (Moss, Wayne, Austin, Burress, Holmes, Nicks, etc…the list is long) when it comes to scoring. The “TD % targeted” = how many TD’s the WR has averaged per 100 times being thrown to (targeted) over his career. The “TD % completed” = how many TD’s the WR has averaged over career per 100 completions over his career. Dez Bryant 108 of 175, 1489 yards, 13.8 ypc, 15 TD … 8.57 TD % targeted, 13.89 TD % completed Vincent Jackson 272 of 491, 4754 yards, 17.5 ypc, 37 TD … 7.54 TD % targeted, 13.6 TD % completed Calvin Johnson 366 of 677, 5872 yards, 16.0 ypc, 49 TD … 7.24 TD % targeted, 13.39 TD % completed Jordy Nelson 168 of 244, 2531 yards, 15.1 ypc, 21 TD … 8.61 TD % targeted, 12.5 TD % completed Greg Jennings 389 of 670, 6171 yards, 15.9 ypc, 49 TD … 7.31 TD % targeted, 12.6 TD % completed Stevie Johnson 170 of 293, 2189 yards, 12.9 ypc, 19 TD … 6.49 TD % targeted, 11.18 TD % completed Marques Colston 449 of 691, 6240 yards, 13.9 ypc, 48 TD … 6.95 TD % targeted, 10.69 TD % completed Larry Fitzgerald 693 of 1191, 9615 yards, 13.9 ypc, 73 TD … 6.13 TD % targeted, 10.53 TD % completed David Bowe 356 of 636, 4927 yards, 13.8 ypc, 36 TD … 5.67 TD % targeted, 10.11 TD % completed Brandon Llyod 311 of 665, 4784 yards, 15.4 ypc, 31 TD … 4.66 TD % targeted, 9.97 TD % completed DeSean Jackson 230 of 438, 4096 yards, 17.8 ypc, 21 TD … 4.79 TD % targeted, 9.13 TD % completed Roddy White 530 of 940, 7374 yards, 13.9 ypc, 45 TD … 4.79 TD % targeted, 8.49 TD % completed Steve Smith 699 of 1190, 10278 yards, 14.7 ypc, 59 TD … 4.96 TD % targeted, 8.44 TD % completed Brandon Marshall 494 of 827, 6247 yards, 12.6 ypc, 34 TD … 4.11 TD % targeted, 6.88 TD % completed Of note: Brandon Marshall is the lowest of this group for ypc, TD % targeted, and TD % completed…big play WR Brandon Marshall is NOT! Of course, some will say the QB throwing the ball had a role and that is fair. Obviously having a Manning or a Brees would improve a WR’s numbers. However, Marshall did have Cutler and Moore throw him the ball and both can throw the deep pass well. Players like Lloyd, Bowe and Johnson haven’t had elite QBs throwing them the ball. And is anyone going to claim Matt Ryan can throw the deep ball well? If Ryan gets within 5 yards of WR on a pass over 30 yards it is a fairly accurate pass for him. After looking at the numbers and pondering a familiar headline I have been reading since Brandon Marshall was traded to the Bears “How will Miami replace Brandon Marshall?” I know Ted Ginn Jr. is a UFA and I don't know Camarillo's status but I am sure a deal could be worked out to get him back on the roster. Other than that, I don't think I am going too far out on a limb to say that if one of those 3rd picks Miami just picked from the Bears were to be spent on a WR in the draft Miami would do just fine replacing Brandon Marshall.
i dont think that: Miami's record without Brandon Marshall: 19-15 (.559 winning percentage) Miami's record with Brandon Marshall: 12-18 (.400 winning percentage) is a viable statistic, there are too many factors that play into those W/L than just BM ,or lack of BM... seems way too broad.... just my opinion Not that it matters Or I even really care anymore. For all i know its 100% due to him. idk just saying. tl;dr but is a nice post from what i did see.
Looking at who Miami is interested in free agency, it seems to me they are looking at increasing speed at receiver. Manningham and Robinson are both faster than Marshall.
Over payed possession receiver with bad hands and a worse attitude. Let him and his crazy wife go to Chicago. Good riddance.
Definitely a team game. Win as a team and lose as a team. Having said that for Miami to get a supposed "top 5" WR I would think over time our offense would get better, not worse. Particularly when it came to Henne who had the best sample size of playing with Marshall and playing without him. For such a bad QB, he seemed to do fine in a balanced offense (8-7 and 24 ppg). On an individual level BM is like that team that puts up big yardage moving the ball between the 20's but just can't put it in the end zone. Of course, I have just described BM as a player as a microcosm of the Miami Dolphins as whole since he has been here. What the numbers tell me are what my eyes have been telling me for the past two years. Brandon Marshall is not a legit #1 and trying to build an offense around him hurts Miami's chances of scoring and winning, not helps it. Making Marshall the central point of a passing attack is a negative, not a positive. He won't be that hard to replace.
While I think Marshall is very good on the football field, and while I think what we got in the trade was kind of low (only slightly), I have to give kudos to the OP for the info he's got there. I hope this trade works out well for us.
Edited: Yeah.. Well I don't think he will be THAT easy to replace, regardless. TBH, atleast not AS much as most people think, But yeah I agree overall
I have never put Marshall into the elite category, the drops, the lack of breakaway speed, he was very good yes, and I liked the guys spirit in some weird way, and were gonna need to replace the presence of him, but I did not see the receiver separate after the get off at the LOS, was not impressed with the Yac ability, I always thought there was some fundamental issues with the way he caught the football, which would always lead to future consistent drops, and he was almost always going horizontal after the catch, which made me think he lacked confidence in his own speed. Would I want to get rid of him if he wasn't such a risk, no, I would deal with his flaws, but after the probowl, and seeing that we could get a couple of high third rounders, Iam not mad at all, actually Iam excited, because I know if you have true GM talent you can flip those into something very productive for a football team.. Respect for the OP..
As much as I liked Brandon during his time here, and as much as I deep down (whether it's rational or not) wish he was still a Dolphin baggage and all, there's one important thing to remember: It's the quarterback that wins ball games. If we find a franchise QB we'll magically stumble upon a whole bunch of all pro WRs because franchise QBs make every competent wideout that takes the field look amazing.
Not me, but Just from where some Pundits are projecting players to go this draft, would anyone give up Marshall for Tank Carder and Lamichael James?? I would.
Yet if you ask every cornerback in the AFC East if they're glad to see Marshall gone, every single one of them will say HELL YES!! Especially Revis..... Marshall is an idiot but he is a hellava Wr, and one of the best in the NFL. It's a shame the Dolphins didn't do a better job of getting him a better Qb.
Great work compiling those stats. The more I look at the trade, the more I like it. Notwithstanding the fact that we could have gotten a better deal if perhaps Marshall hadn't punched that woman (because i think the deal was done a while ago, and this incident may have cost the Dolphins a higher pick), getting rid of this guy and replacing him with people that work hard and play up to their talents will be a big factor in the future.
Here's my opinion in Haiku form: Useless receiver Can't catch the ball in red zone Punch you in the face
Posting the teams record with him is silly. If you wanna post records of QB's, that's one thing, but a WR? What's Calvin Johnson's career record? Go look that up, and he's the best WR in the game.
Silly because it doesn't support that Marshall is a great WR and make Miami better? Why do I get the feeling there would be nothing silly about posting Miami's win-loss record and ppg if it supported that Marshall made Miami better? Which he didn't... Why do I need to look up your argument? You are not able to? Seriously... 6 years prior to Calvin Johnson being in Detroit...24-72, no season more than 6 wins. 5 years since having Calvin Johnson...24-53 when he plays, two seasons more than 6 wins (this includes 2-30 during two year turmoil in which Kitna, Orlovsky, Culpepper, Stafford, and Stanton all started and Detroit bottomed out as an organization along with a coaching change). The Detroit defense gave up an ASTOUNDING 1,011 points during their 2-30 stretch...31.6 PPG!!!! Yikes. That is NOT the TURMOIL that Brandon Marshall has been exposed to here in Miami. John Kitna QB in 2006 no Calvin Johnson...3-13 John Kitna QB in 2007 with Calvin Johnson rookie year...6-9 Detroit has also scored 346, 362, and 474 points during 3 of the 5 years Calvin has played...474 points is the "all-time" Lion record for points scored in a season. The 3 years mentioned rank in the "top 8" scoring years of all-time for the Lions who have been around since 1934. I see some improvement, you don't?. I don't deny football is a team game. In fact, I firmly believe it. But when a team has Ted Ginn Jr. as their #1 WR and adds what is supposed to be an "elite" WR while keeping the rest of the offense intact shouldn't that team show some signs of improvement? With Marshall Miami went from winning to losing and scoring almost 7 points per game less. Perhaps the part about comparing Calvin Johnson's scoring production to Brandon Marshall's was missed? Johnson has a 7.24 TD % targeted and 13.39 TD % completion as compared to Marshall's 4.11 TD % targeted and 6.88 TD % completed. If Marshall put up anywhere near the scoring that Johnson does I would have never made the thread. Most likely because Miami would have a better record and improved their PPG.
And yet the same QB who posted a 5-11 record and Miami averaged 17.4 PPG with Marshall playing was able to post an 8-7 record and Miami averaged 24 PPG when Marshall didn't play. There is a FA QB in Seattle today probably saying "It's a shame the Dolphins didn't do a better job getting me a better WR." Did you see how many TDs passes Marshall left on the field of play? Fitzgerald, Johnson or a number of other WRs would have had 12-15 TD catches this year if given the same opportunity...between the flat out drops, running out of bounds with no one in front of him, getting jammed at the line of scrimmage on timing plays, not being able to run the fade, and falling down in front of Revis allowing a pick-6...hardly the makings of a hellava WR imo.
No way, Killer has serendipitously stumbled into a relationship...I say more handjobs are being thrown around than Kony 2012 propaganda.
Nice work Adam! I really expected alot more production from Marshall. Forcing the ball to Marshall at times really hurt the team. Maybe the Bears will get lucky and find the better Marshall that we witnessed in the probowl.
