Awhile ago I did a study that suggested a reasonable expectation for Chad Henne's QB rating this year would be somewhere in the mid-80's. Anything less would be a bad sign for his development, imo. Anything more would be a bonus, but could hardly be expected. So, after crunching the numbers these are my benchmarks by which to judge Henne this season: 62% completion percentage 230 passing yards per game, 3,680 for the season 1.53 TD to INT ratio Over 20 TDs If Henne does that, he hits an 85 QBR and is on track as our franchise Quarterback. If he underperforms, we may need to look for another QB prospect. If he does better than that, we should be elated. Website for calculating QBR: http://www.primecomputing.com/
I think the main thing for Henne statistically this year is to flip the int-TD around the other way. I wouldnt be upset if he threw under 20 TDs. If he threw 17-19 and only had 8-12 ints i can gurantee you that we'll be at least a 9 win team considering how well we run the ball. If we can win 7 games when he has 12 tds and 14 ints i certainly think if he improves just a bit we'll be over .500.
Stats schmats. The INT numbers were inflated by Henne being behind late in games and drops (3 @ Buffalo, 2 @ Tennessee, Houston, San Diego, 2 vs Nawlins). Overall, his decision making was solid, with the only bonehead INTs being vs NE, TB and @ Jax. As for TD's, who was he supposed to throw TD's to? Ginn was the only (unreliable) deep threat and there were no red zone targets to speak of. I won't project any figures b/c its all situational, but if he plays at or above where he was last year, the numbers will naturally improve as the team experiences more success.
Man, that calculator doesn't seem right... I get a 85 qbr with the following stats: 180 of 320 (56%), 3200 yards, 22 td and 22 int's...
http://brucey.net/nflab/statistics/qb_rating.html That gave me a rating of 84.89583333333334, so 85 Rating seems correct. The formula for those interested: http://www.nfl.com/help/quarterbackratingformula
I had done something similar for fantasy football purposes earlier this off-season. For fantasy purposes the QB rating doesn't matter so I didn't do things in the same order as you, but our results were very similar. I was also projecting that Henne and the offense would be efficient enough to average 7.0 YPA. My projection was: 550 attempts 345 completions 62.7 compl. % 3850 yards 7.0 YPA 25 TDs 15 INTs 87.3 QBR
Your calculator is right but the number of TDs and INTs and the huge YPA based on the relatively few passes it what makes the rating so high. Using a more realistic number of passes (BPK's) that rating would be about 75. But his YPA would only be 5.8.
Thanks Raf. That kinda confirms the target numbers, to me. And that great minds think alike! Yeah, the YPA is sure to rise, IMO, with a big YAC receiver like Marshall. That's how I arrived at the increased passing yards per game figure. Heck, David Martin should help that too.
I changed down to rookie to se ehow bad the slaughtering would be. I won 140-0 against the Ravens with what Henne did above, and then 147-0 against the Bengals with Ronnie Brown running for 350+ yards and 10 Tds...
That's a very fair run down, and I mostly agree. I'm seeing Henne showing some touch on throws and finding the receiver underneath. I can see around 65% completion, maybe 4,000 yards, and 12 int's. JMO
I just don't see that happening. I'm asuming he'd at least have 15-20 TDs in your scenario and that would give him a QB rating between 114 and 120. No way. Much as I love Henne. Not this season.
Wow, that would be MVP stats, for sure...I agree with Bpk, though...those numbers would be difficult for him to accomplish, given the strength of our running game and Henning's tendency to be very conservative. Numbers like that would mean that we aren't running the ball well and he's had to change the way he calls games...if that were the case though, imo, the INTs would be up around 20 as well...
Just win baby!!!!!! That's all I really care about. Some guys throw for crazy yards/stats but still get beat. I think the key stat is completion percentage, along with not throwing INT's.
I look at it mainly to gauge how Henne is developing. So long as we win, I'm happy, but I want to see progress from our leader.
So far, we are around where I expected on his QBR and his completion %, but behind on yards and TDs as Henne has made fewer down-the-field throws than I expected. (He currently projects out to 2300 yards, but he'll get way more than that. Our first half opponents are much better defenses than our second half opponents). I still think we hit my predicted numbers by season's end.
17 Passing TD 2 Rush TD 1.2 Blocks per game 5 Rebounds per game (total) 78% FT .785 OPS 21 Stolen bases
I understand taking him along slowly as to develop his confidence and I also believe in the Defense/Run Game first mentality... I just want to see a few more intermediate and deep balls a game.
UPDATE I'm happy to say Chad Henne is VERY much on pace to meet the benchmarks I mentioned for a second year starting QB to be on-schedule in his development. If you Chad's season continues at his current pace, his stats will extrapolate as follows (based on 6 games worth of stats, pre-Bengals): This Season (Extrapolated) 23 TDs 16 INTs 1.43 TD/INT ratio 3,872 yds 63.1% completion percentage 84.9 QBR This is VERY close to the predictions/benchmarks I set at the start of the season (which were based on averaged out stats for good QB's like Manning, Brees, Rivers, etc after their second year starting). Bpk's Benchmarks/Predictions 62% completion percentage 3,680 yds for the season 1.53 TD to INT ratio Over 20 TDs 84-86 QBR Chad is hitting ALL his marks except TD to INT ratio, and even that one is VERY close. That said, Marshall is responsible for two of those, by his own admission. What does this mean? It means that Chad Henne seems to be developing as you would hope. If he finishes the year around this pace (as I expect he will), I think we see a BIG leap in his performance and stats next season. I would be comfortable expecting him to have a mid-90's QBR next season, barring any change in this season's trend.
Considering the Pitt INT shouldn't have happened; the late Jets INT shouldn't have happened if not for horrendous ST play; and one of the Pats INTs might not have happened if not for the 21 ST points allowed....... then he'd probably have a 90+ QB rating. Just sayin. I think he's doing more than fine based on playing mostly cover 2s w/o the aid of a running game or major TE to help him out. When this offense is at full balance, Henne should become dangerous imo.
Bpk, I did not see this reply before. The QB rating is way high. I thought it would be in the low 90's??
Agreed. I may have been a little high on 4,000 yards, and a little low on 12 picks. However, as the O comes together, and the schedule get easier, I can see Henne getting into the 90's. Sounds like our Miami weather report. LOL
