so what you're saying is start chad pennington actually good points. the intermediate area is what i noticed this year too. he's come along way from the dink and dunk proclivities he started his career with
I'm saying that people CONSISTENTLY overrate quarterbacks' tendency and ability to throw the deep vertical. The tendency to do it doesn't even correlate with passing yardage or passer rating. But the tendency to throw the ball 10 to 19 yards does correlate pretty strongly. This is why as I evaluate passers in college, I look for guys that have a good arm and strong and consistent accuracy on 25 yard throws. A 25 yard throw doesn't mean 25 yards upfield. It means 25 yards as the crow flies, and that translates to the 10 to 19 yard area. It actually takes arm strength to exploit that depth, so I wouldn't be advocating that the team go with Pennington. The ability of a guy to pick out targets in that 10 to 19 yard area and get the ball there correlates highly with success. No it's not a perfect measure. But it's a nice key to look for and I'm generally pretty good at spotting it out.
i agree. the downfield bomb has a purpose but its a low percentage play. the intermediate pass is a far more lethal weapon since it can be used throughout the game and the likelihood of success is much higher
Great post CK. Perhaps the benefit of deep passing attempts is to keep that strong safety out of the box more to help the run game. Do you have any figures correlating teams taking 20+ yard passing shots with teams' avg yards per carry? I'd be curious to see if there were any trend.
could be the offense would run better certainly could be. the guy has won a championship for us in his first season with the team. he is a Franchise quality QB & master of the game he is the most accurate passer in the history of the NFL Pennington holds the record, yes he does. the guy is a proven commodity, the only ProvenBull in our stable could be the offense would run better certainly could be.
He didn't when a championship, he won the Division And that was before his arm was torn off again and reput on. Its Henne's team, get over it. Henne played a great game against the Steelers.
a division championship non the less doesn't alter the facts: could be the offense would run better certainly could be. the guy has won a championship for us in his first season with the team. he is a Franchise quality QB & master of the game he is the most accurate passer in the history of the NFL Pennington holds the record, yes he does. the guy is a proven commodity, the only ProvenBull in our stable could be the offense would run better certainly could be. think about it
Pennington may be the quiet answer to a successful run in 2010, just sitting, waiting on the bench for an opportunity. as far as I can see this is more about Sparano than Henne or Pennington. He is the failed parcellian attempt @ molding a HeadCoach into a likeness of himself. a vanity gone astray if Bill were the decision- maker, who do you think he'd start? think about it could be the offense would run better with Pennington certainly could be.
I think there are multiple issues: 1 - Henne obviously is petrified of throwing an INT. Part of that is because the Dolphins don't have confidence in their D and O to overcome turnovers. Turnovers are, of course, at the top of the heap as factors in winning and losing over the course of a season. 2 - Is the offense creating openings for the receivers? Occasionally they run an ingenious play; but on a consistent basis I don't think the coaching staff is very imaginative in routes run. 3 - Henne seems quite hesitant. Either the receivers are completely covered or he's just afraid (this may relate to #1). But, he is not smooth in going through his reads; he holds the ball quite long if the first option is not open. At the very least, he and the OC need to have plays in which they throw the ball downfield to Marshall and let him go get the ball! He should be able to beat 9 out of 10 CBs. 4 - As noted, his decisions to throw the ball short on 3rd down plays - on passes that simply are not going to get a first down - is puzzling. It's ridiculous on 3rd and 10 to throw a come back route that is 5 yards down field - the odds of the WR getting the 1st on such a play are 1 in 50. The WR should not even be running back to the QB on such plays ("We need twelve, so I'll run straight to the QB at about 3-4 yards past the line then hope to double back and get a 1st" - what kind of thinking is that?). And, Henne needs to take off on occasion. 5 - The running game has been slim and none and that's a factor as well. It's not just passing but it's running. The OL simply has not improved. In fact, it's been worse than last year after all the insane turnover! They still can't get it right. It seems to me that the staff has outsmarted itself. We'll see if they actually start blocking on the interior.
1. I think that is because the staff was all over him in the off season about turnovers. Your right about turnovers, you can argue that Hartline's fumble cost us the game, it sure cost us 7 points. 2. I can agree with that 3. Yes and No, he has thrown some passes to Marshall lately that were in dam tight coverage, and Marshall for the most part has gotten them. 4. Again I think this is what he is coached to do. Problem is Brown likes to dance to much and we don't have that speed back out of the backfield. Losing Sheets I think hurt us in that regard. 5. Totally agree, when we need to run, we can't. The O-line has been poor at run blocking, Williams gets his yards because he runs over people, Brown is not because he dances to much and seems to have lost a step. One of the big reasons Sanchez is doing so well is the Jets running game.
analyzing...... analyzing...... analyzing...... OK It's in green. Anything else? (Oh yeah--- also, could NOT beat a playoff caliber team in any of his starts here). Seriously, get real 23rd!! Penny would've had his butt handed to him by Pitt, just as he had it handed to him by a similar physical Ravens defense with 5 INTs in 2 games. I actually wish Miami WOULD bring in Pennington for 2 games just to shut you up for good after we watch him take ANOTHER beating from a good team rather than the lollipop schedule he was the recipient of in 08.
think about it: if it weren't for the offensive coordinator, our lame WR's & the horrendous defenses Henne has to battle along with our pitiful Running Game screwing everything up & the coaches holding him back Henne would be the Second Coming of Marino! this is pathetic nonsense & useless banter we already know what we have in Chad Henne Ever wonder if Pennington could do any better or if Thigpen could do any worse?
RE-EDITED more appropriately The way you speak of Penny is as if the guy is the God of all QBs!! Without the Wildcat, we go 9-7 at best in 08 ..... and finish 2nd or 3rd in our division (with those wins literally coming against a collective of the very worst teams and defenses in the NFL). Wake up will you.
NO, I don't think Thigpen can do ANY worse than the 3 INTs he's thrown in 14 attempts. He throws 1 INT for every 2 completions. And NO, I don't think Penny can do any better than he's done over his last 4 games as a starter where he's 0-4...... nor can he do any better against playoff caliber teams where he's WINLESS. "Horrendous Defenses Henne has to battle"? The defenses that Henne competes against and has beaten (or kept us in the game against) are twice as tough as the easy crap that Penny got victories over in 08. Get real buddy. You're clueless.
Wow, just wow Lame defenses?? You mean 3 of the top defenses in the league (Jets, Steelers and Vikings)? Lame Wr's??? Bess is the best slot wr in the game right now, Marshall is one of the top Wr's in the game. My god man, what are you watching?
Another interestsing tidbit of info: in 2008, Chad Pennington threw 34 passes of 21 yards in the air or farther. That's 2.1 a game. His QB rating on those throws alone? 134.6 -- extremely high. So for those who argue that the coaches are making Chad Henne play like Chad Pennington, take that into consideration.
Huh?!! Now you're REALLY showing that you know absolutely NOTHING about football or player development. NOTHING
"Extremely high"? It better be when you play garbage teams. I'm going to have to put this to rest once and for all, so 23rd, please pay attention!! In 08, Penny faced: the 31st, 30th, 29th, 27th, 26th, 25th, 24th, 23rd, 23rd (no, not you, 23rd), 22nd, 22nd ranked pass defenses based on QB Rating allowed. A QB couldn't dream of an easier schedule to throw against!! He also faced the 31st, 30th, 29th, 28th, 27th, 25th, 24th, 23rd, 18th, 18th, 15th, 14th, 14th ranked scoring defenses. Penny couldn't ask for a softer bunch of teams to score against!!! That's 11 games against the absolute worst pass defenses in the league & 8 games vs THE worst scoring defenses!!! (the exclamation point is not for you Shou; it's for someone else who won't quit ignorantly glorifying Penny). Penny faced ONLY 2 defenses ranked in the top 16 in QB rating allowed: Balt #1, Oak #12 (although Oak was still the 24th ranked scoring D). TWO!!.... yet he could only muster up 19 TDs for the season??!!!!! And you guys speak of Henne not scoring?!! That's a laugh!! Penny had 1, TD, I repeat ONE, and 5 INTs in 3 games vs these two teams (and I don't count a late 4th qtr TD wth the game already over while Balt is in prevent). If you add the first 3 games of 09 to the above 2, it becomes 1 genuine TD to 7 INTs in these 5 games and ZERO wins. That's a whopping 7 legitimate points by Penny in these 5 losses!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Henne on the other hand faced the: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 12th, 13th, 13th, 14th, 15th ranked pass defenses based on QB rating allowed. That's 11 teams in the top 15 in 2009 alone (and he only started 13 games)..... but he faced ONLY 2 teams in the bottom 3rd (TB 21st, Tenn 25th). Henne's level of competition through his first 19 games couldn't be MORE opposite compared to what Penny was fortunate enough to face in his in 08. -Penny was 11-8 against a creampuff schedule in a division that didn't have Brady or Rex Ryan's rebuilt Jets, and he needed more help from the WC to do so. -Henne's 10-9 as a 1st & 2nd year starter against MUCH tougher competition (11-8 if you count the hosed loss to Pitt). The people who back Penny really need to understand what they're talking about and realize that they're NOT comparing apples to apples here.
The running game was also a heck of a lot better in 2008, meaning Pennington wasn't the entire focus of the offense. Doesn't matter that he didn't put up monster TDs, he was super-efficient and didn't make mistakes, and we kept scoring just fine regardless. Just clarifying that things were different for Penne than Henne.
And by the way PFF disagrees with your Pennington numbers. In 2008 he was 18 of 40 on those 20+ yard throws, for 555 yards, 7 TDs and 4 INTs. That's a 91.7 QB Rating. And for the record, in 2009 the year when you point out that Chad Henne was inefficient in downfield passing (with Ted Ginn as his downfield receiver??? How could that be?!?!), Pennington was also inefficient. Pennington was 1 of 8 for 21 yards, 0 TDs and 1 INT for a rare QB Rating of 0.0. You know, you can be 0 of 5 for 0 yards, 0 TDs, and 0 INTs...and you'd still have 39.6 QB Rating. It takes some effort to get that 0.0 QB Rating. Chad Henne was 11 for 47 for 366 yards, 1 TD and 4 INTs. That's a 31.2 QB Rating, which is poor (again, with Ted Ginn as your downfield guy, how could you POSSIBLY go wrong?!?)...but still better than Pennington's was in the same year with the same cast. So why did Chad Henne throw 10.4% of his pass attempts 20+ yards down the field in 2009, but in 2010 through 6 games it has sunk to really a very low 4.3%? The answer is really pretty simple. One, the Dolphins don't have the type of player they trust to "blow the top off" a defense. Two, they've faced more Cover 2 in 6 games than they faced in 16 games one year ago. Think about it, what was the ONE game this year where a defense went after Henne the most, blitzed him, did not play much Cover 2, daring him to throw? The Jets game. Unsurprisingly, that was the game where he had the most passes travel 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage, as a percentage of his attempts.
"Kept scoring just fine"? We were the 21st ranked scoring offense (lucky to be that if it weren't for help from the WC) from a schedule that included the 31st, 30th, 29th, 28th, 27th, 25th, 24th, 23rd, 18th, 18th, 15th, 14th, 14th ranked scoring defenses. Not sure how that qualifies for "scoring just fine". If anything, I'd think that's pretty underproductive. How many points did we (or Penny) put up against good defenses? I don't know the exact answer, but it's not very many. Sure, he was "super-efficient and didn't make any mistakes"...... against crappy defenses..... but again, verses tough competition: he had 1 legit TD and 7 INTs in the 5 losses that I listed. If you include the loss to Zona where Penny completed only 50% of his passes for 112 yards, it becomes 6 games and 1 TD. How was our ground game in those 6 losses?
What people need to understand, is that the success of some offenses isn't going to be reflected in points scored. Its reflected in points scored and points allowed. Sometimes you want to control the clock and keep your defense off the field, as opposed to trying to score as much as you can.
Right there you show the problem of only relying on statistics. They only tell a small portion of the story.
Ah, you're including the playoff game, I was wondering where you were getting those inflated stats from. Seems like Pennington was 24/35 for 1TD and 1 INT in that first game against Baltimore (HOW GODAWFUL). He was 16/22 for 174 against the Raiders. In the loss against the Texans, Pennington was 19/25 for 284 yards, 2 TDs and an INT. In the loss against NE, he was 21/41 for 341 yards, 3TDs and 1INT. IN the loss to the Jets, he was 26/43 for 241 yards and 2 TDs and one INT. What the heck are you talking about 1 TD and 7 INTs in losses?
The bottom line is Penny is overrated as a QB here. Any decent NFL QB should be able to have great season against the putrid level competition Penny faced. The fact that he only threw 19 TDs (I don't count the 2 last minute TDs vs Atlanta or Balt when the game is already over) in 20 games with 13 INTs is disturbing and red-flag eliciting to say the least when you consider that: 1. 8 of those games were against teams ranked 23rd or worse in scoring defense. 2. 12 games were against teams ranked 22nd or worst in pass defense (based on QB rating). 3. ONLY 2 of 20 games were against top 10 passing defenses (based on QB rating). 4. ONLY 3 games were against top 10 scoring defenses.
Oh, I get it, we only get to count what you want to count, and we have to spread it over two seasons and mix and match when convenient. I'm not going to bother giving you the time of day past this.
how come nobody mentions that pennington had TED GINN to throw and a rookie Bess he did pretty damn good with that - let pennington play with marshal and bess 3 years in to his carreer, i would imagine his numbers would be even better. go ahead Todd and pick your damn numbers and statistics, but ya know what numbers arent everything for a QB so is leadership and game managing and whatever other intangibles you want to throw in there and Henne cant even hold Penningtons Jock strap.
Great write-up by the way, nice analysis... MY GOSH! Has most of this board really become such a group of babies??? Suck it up, half the season isn't even over... If you don't enjoy watching the games then just turn the TV off or something. I love Henne, and think the second half of the season will be BIG for the kid. I love Sparano and think he is a helluva coach! Dan Henning isn't the greatest IMO but they all get a little predictable. Defense will only continue to get better as they get acclimated to the scheme. No matter how loud you whine the FO, coaching staff and players aren't losing sleep over the fans rants... I love this site but man, all the whining this season is really annoying! Am I saying to not have an opinion? NO. Am I saying be mindless clones? No. But, come on!
Please stop using yardage in losses as a marker for success. Those numbers get inflated when you're trailing and an opponent is in prevent etc. By the way, we barely beat the horrendous Raider team you referenced, and Penny threw zero TDs. The "1 TD and 7 INTs" that you ask of is from: - The only 3 games that Penny played against the top 16 pass defenses in 08 (Balt, Balt, Oak). - The Super Bowl Cardinals (b/c I measure him to top teams, not bottom ones). - His first 3 games of 09: Atlanta, Indy, SD (b/c they were the last 3 he's played and they were all playoff caliber teams) I don't give a crap what he can do against s#!t teams. I only care about how he can produce against top teams and good defenses, which is not very much. My god, against St Louis, Seattle, and Denver, Penny had a combined: 1 TD & 2 INTs with a QB rating of about 75!!!!! That's against the 31st, 29th, and 27th ranked passing defenses!!!!..... and the 31st, 30th, and 25th worst scoring defenses.
Seriously..... get a clue. I don't pick and choose to suit my argument. I use the games that matter. Like I said, it means nothing what he can do against lame defenses or when he's trailing and teams are in prevent etc. This is the NFL! QBs should be able to put up some yards in these situations. Big f'n deal!! What matters when measuring his success is how he performs against defenses and teams that we would need to beat in order to win a SB. It's also: what have you done for me lately, hence including his last 3 games, which also happens to be against top competition, not the garbage he faced in 08. If anyone's picking and choosing stats to make a lame argument, it's your hypocritical self.
Wow.... if that's not ignorant I don't know what is!!!! My "lame argument"? You're the one using a "jock strap" references to support yours!! (yes, that's a double meaning). LMAO. "Leadership and game managing etc"? How well did Penny lead us in his ZERO wins against playoff teams? Zona: Loss. Balt: Loss. Balt: Loss. Atlanta: Loss Indy: Loss SD: Loss How about teams w/ winning records (non-playoff)? NE without Brady: Loss Jets pre-Ryan: Loss Show me a REAL win against a quality team that he's had in Miami which WASN'T aided by the WC!!!!! There's ONLY 1, and that's against a Jet team that was before its make over & without Ryan. The other win was ALL DUE TO THE WC and NE not having Brady. The only way Henne couldn't hold Penny's jock strap is if Penny had a 40 inch c@#k...... which might account for his noodle arm b/c wanking something that big is probably exhausting. Henne on the other hand vs playoff caliber teams: Pats with Brady: 1 win AFC runner up Jets: 2 wins (should be 3) NFC runner up Vikings in the Dome: win Packers at Lambeau: win Steelers: should be a win
