Chad Pennington Limiting our Offense? Numbers say otherwise...

wow.. imagine the numbers if he had a long ball and he wasn't limited to short and intermediate passes

 

That just proves that Pennington has been the best QB we've had in years. I doubt anybody on these boards would dispute that. What's arguable, is if those numbers would increase with a QB with more arm strength.

I think most people would agree that our running backs are superior to NE, however, NE had the 6th rated run offense last season. If you have an offense (QB) that can throw down the field at any moment, it opens up run. Imagine Ricky and Ronnie not facing an 8 man front every time they ran.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be starting Pennington, I'm happy he's with us. But I'm excited for the future and what Henne could possibly bring.

 

Pretty impressive considering we had arguably the worst WR Corps in the league.

 

Monst.. I'm just comparing him to him.. I am grateful for the nimbers he's put up, and for what he has, and is doing for us. None the less, I'll bet he wishes he had a stronger arm too..

 

Right on MonstB., Pennington is very very similar to Bob Griese based on the various ratings of Qb efficiency, we do have some issues, Chad Pennington is not one of them.

Our "real" problem is a lack of explosive plays, we are sort of the UPS truck of the AFC East, we'll get there, we just won't go very fast enroute.

 

obviously... its not JUST about arm strength... there are millions of guys with great arms that wouldn't be half the QB pennington...

but that doesn't negate the fact that a QB that can not make all the throws limits what you can do as an offense... its not that hard to accept...

Penny understand his weakness, why do you think he always talks about things to strengthen his arm? why can some people refuse to accept that he has a weaker arm... with that he cant make all the throws, he cant squeeze it into tighter windows, he cant threaten too far down the sidelines, etc...

so that LIMITS what an offense is capable of doing... does it mean the offense cant succeed? of course not, you can put anyone in a situation to succeed... but we have to LIMIT how we do that...

the simple point is, if Penny had an arm like Brett Favre, would that make our offense A) Better or B) Worse or C) The Same...

i think all of us could agree the answer would be A... and why A? because now there are more areas of the field we can exploit, there are tighter windows passes can be fit into to, the defense has to beware the long ball more, etc etc...

so its not that Penny sucks, its that he has a shortcoming that limits the things we can do with him at QB, nothing against him, its just the facts

 

I don't know that anyone on these boards has been saying that Pennington limits the offense...I know that I was in a discussion recently about Pennington, but my point was that he limits GINN'S offense. Not sure how you can dispute that. Facts are facts, and Pennington can't make the long throws consistently cause he lacks arm strength. He does limit Ginn's game, in that respect, but, like I also said, he improves Ginn's game in other ways, like making him learn good routes, etc.

Like I said in that other discussion, I like Pennington, I'm glad he's our QB. I just get sick of people bagging on Ginn for things that aren't his fault.

 

3 out of those 4 stats really have nothing to do with the argument that he limits our offense, and I would suggest that the passing yards don't either. Total offense, average yard per play and first downs are team statistics, not individual stats and one could argue that the presence of Ronnie Brown had as much to do with the increase of those numbers as Pennington. The passing yards stat is also misleading, it doesn't tell us anything about the type of passes being thrown.

I posted these splits once before and I think it's about as good a stat as any to show how Pennington limits the passing game.

First Pennington



As you can see from these splits, the majority of Pennington's passes are within the 1-10 and 11-20 yard distance, which isn't surprising seeing that trend is followed by all NFL QB's.

What you will notice however is that for passes that went 21 yards and longer, Pennington only attempted 19 of those. For passes that were longer than 31 yards, he only attempted 5.

Now lets look at Jay Cutler, who I'm sure everyone will agree has a much stronger arm



Again you can see that Cutler, like all QB's, makes the majority of his throws within that 1-10 and 11-20 yards distance. But the numbers that jump out are the long distance passes. Where Pennington only attempted 19 passes for 21 yards or more, Cutler threw 80. For passes longer than 31 yards, Cutler again had far more with 27 to Pennington's 5.

So what does this tell us?

Well it tells us that Pennington doesn't attempt the long ball nearly as much as someone like Cutler who has a much stronger arm and who trusts his ability to get the ball down the field. It also tells us that when Pennington attempts passes longer than 21 yards his completion % within that 21-30 yard distance drops dramatically. Pennington, who is a very efficient passer, doesn't attempt many passes that he knows he can't make.

Now one might say "well offense has to be taken into account", and while that's true, that doesn't make up for the fact that Pennington's completion numbers drop dramatically. One could also say "Well Cutler had more overall passing attempts", which is also true. But you could double Chad's attempts and he still wouldn't have even half as many 21 and longer attempts as Cutler did. The obvious answer here is that Cutler has the stronger arm and he trusts his ability to get the ball deep, where Pennington is a much more efficient passer because his field is much shorter and he doesn't attempt passes that he knows he can't make.

And that's the whole argument for Pennington limiting our offense, he doesn't have the same type of long game that other QB's have, his game is within the 1-10 and 11-20 yard range. Someone like Ginn whose game is speed, separation and stretching the field is going to have less opportunities to utilize his skills because he doesn't have a QB that throws the ball deep. So when you look at Ginn's numbers, comparing him to the top WR's in the league is flawed, what the numbers show us is that he has had to adjust his game and he's done a pretty good job with the chances that he's been given. Just thought I'd slip that in there.

 

I think ... what youll find most people saying here, really isnt that Chad Pennington is limiting our offense, as much as alot of people feel like Chad Henne will open it further up. Quite certainly, there is no QB since Marino that has done as much for our franchise as Chad Pen, and thats not limited to stats, wins, or all of the other stuff. What he does off the field, bringing a winning attitude, and coaching up Chad Henne and now Pat White are all things you cant quantify with a stat, but end up being more important to the future of our franchise.

You mention having a QB with a stronger arm, but if he makes more mistakes, your not really better off. Im my opinion, thats a HUGE net used to make that argument. My question to you is....how do you quantify that? I mean, lets say Henne is at QB this season....throws for 4,000 yards, 28 TD's and 15 Ints....when does the mistakes outdo what is done other wise. Brett Favre is one of the greatest QB's to ever play the game, he has also thrown more INT's than anyone else. Would you trade Chad's season last year for a Brett Favre season when he was younger?

You also have to imagine Chad Pennington is going to make less mistakes, because, quite obviously, he has been in the league awhile. Chad Henne is going to make mistakes...that goes with the territory, but you have to let him play to get the experience. If Chad Henne had the same physical tools as say Chad Pennington, well, theres not much reason to find out what you have, but thats not the case. You have a young QB with a MUCH better skill set, who has tremendous pocket and huddle prescience (as described by many vets on the Phins) who has impressed everyone including Chad Pennington with the way he has emersed himself in getting better and learning the game.

The momma bird wont be completely sure her young can fly until she pushes them out of the nest, but shes got a pretty good idea they will. You have to find out....theres just no way of getting around it.

 

pennington is the best qb we've had since marino. we've seen how hard it is to find a capable qb. he's not perfect but he is leagues ahead of anyone else we've had in here.

 

Its not easy to find Dan Marinos and its not easy to find strong armed quarterbacks who have the leadership and other qualities Pennington has. Henne maybe everything we hope and expect him to be, but we don't know for sure and wont know for sure until he takes over for Pennington.
We have had a long succession of hoping one quarterback takes over in place of another one since Marino retired and we were disappointed in all of those cases until this year when we went 11-5 and had Pennington running the offense. Only thing is, now people are hoping or wishing someone with better skill sets takes over for Pennington. I am just glad Henne is learning from Pennington and not one of the other QBs we have had here in the past after Marino.

 

and to note about Penny's deep passes they include, wildcat pass to Cobbs... 2 underthrows to Ginn (against Buffalo where Ginn had to stop to catch it, negating a TD, and the other against the Jets to Ginn where he came back to the ball between 2 defenders and caught it)... those are the ones i can remember off hand...

eventhough those plays succeeded, the 2 to Ginn basically negated touchdowns if the passes would have been deeper... so there still that factor of plays that could have gone the distance instead end up as 30 or 40 yard passes, as opposed to 60-70 yard TDs...

 

They don't do anything to support him as an individual or his game. That's the point. Team stats are highly misleading.

So you don't care that he limits our playbook? After all, that's the whole argument that you seem to be trying to dispel in this thread.

 

So then just to play devil's advocate..
Since you chose to use Cutler, I'll go with the same.
Armed with that knowledge, Cutler's team, while using (arguably) better WRs than we have; still only posted an 8-8 record. I don't think the argument could be made that they had a tougher schedule, either.
The ultimate proof is W-L
We were 11-5
Denver was 8-8 (they lost to us, Oakland, KC, Buffalo, etc)
So really how much of an overall advantage does a team have by having a big armed QB?
It seems to me that there are a number of other more important aspects that go into overall team success.

 

One can simply look at how the ball travels in the air to see that Pennington doesn't have a strong arm, he doesn't have the zip on his passes that limits us in the redzone and he doesn't have the strength to pass it deep. The one play that keeps coming to mind is the one against the Bills, Ginn had his man deep and had to stop and fight for the floater. Had the defensive player been at 100%, that pass isn't a completion and it more than likely isn't even attempted.

 

Check out Joe Montana's career Averages:

http://www.nfl.com/players/joemontana/careerstats?id=MON392207

He rarely averaged over 8 yds per pass.

 

Again, wins and losses are a team stat, putting Pennington on the Broncos wouldn't have fixed their defense, which was the root cause of their problems last year and the reason that they went 8-8.

 

Again, misleading. Take a look at his splits.

1993
298 passing attempts
92 of which were for 21 yards or more
19 which were 31+

1994
493 passing attempts
213 which were 21 yards or more
94 which were 31+

And it's like that throughout his career. You have to look at the type of pass and not general numbers.

 

Not for the point I was making, which is a team can win throwing in the short and intermediate areas of the field, it's not an impossiblity.

As long as the Qb is a good decision maker, it's completely feasible.

 

Please, are you seriously contending that Chad Pennington's arrival in Miami and the vastly improved Qb play that resulted was not the locus of our turnaround?

 

Pennington did help, however if Miami had Denver's defense they would not of gone 11-5

 

Our "D" was actually mediocre, 25th against the pass for example, if not for the offense literally keeping the ball out of the opponents hands we would not have went 11-5.


Our Time of Possesion was probably the most important ingredient in our turnaround, and the turnover ratio was a major help as well.

 

Really that's my point. It takes a team to win a game. You may speculate that a better defense would have insured the Broncos of a better record.
However, I would also think that Cutler's 25/18 TD to INT ratio and his overall 86.0 QB rating contributed to their 8-8 record. To be fair his own mistakes, regardless of his big arm have to be factored into the equation. He helped, but he also hindered their efforts last year.
Also, L2G I do think it's unfair for people to constantly point to that one particular play where Ginn had to come back to catch Pennington's pass as a defining moment and proof positive that Pennington is limiting our offense. It's one play. What if the two simply misjudged their timing?
By the way 7/16 games Denver scored less than 20 points

 

It's almost as if there's an apples and oranges argument going on.

Yes, Pennington limits our offense. But many QB's limit their offense in one way or another. Pennington limits our offense due to physical limitations. But Jeff George, he of the dynamic arm, limited his offense due to mental limitations. Joe Flacco limited his offense due to inexperience, and so on. The key is to what degree it really winds up hurting a team. With Pennington, he mostly makes up for it with smarts, guile, accuracy and instinct, and gets the job done well. Same with Montana. Jay Fiedler, on the other hand, wasn't quite as able to make up for a weak throwing arm with his skill set.

 

I think there is the crux of my disagreement PhinGeneral, the way I see it Pennington doesn't limit the offense because the offense itself is designed around what Pennington can do well in the first place.

We only get into trouble with Pennington when we try to pound a square peg into a round hole and scheme for him to do what doesn't do very well, the Ravens playoff game was a great example of that happening.

 

Miami's defense did a better job of keeping people from scoring.

Pennington is a big reason Miami went 11-5. He is not THE reason Miami went 11-5.

 

Noone said that we couldn't win with Chad, I agree that Chad is a good decision maker, that isn't the point. When people point out that he limits the offense, they are talking about our playbook, how certain players are used, how defenses play against us, etc, not whether we can win with Chad.

As Dupree pointed out, he helped, but he wasn't the only reason we went 11-5. Denver's offense was superior to ours, yet they finished with a worse record. Why? They had a crappy defense that was ranked 29th in the NFL, while ours was ranked 15th. You guys are using team stats and general stats to try and make your case, but they don't tell the whole story and are misleading.

The issue here isn't whether we can win with Chad or how important he was to our turnaround, the point of this thread was to try and dispel the idea that he limits our offense and the numbers show that he does. Chad's field is shortened when compared to stronger armed QB's, Chad doesn't play reckless, he only attempts the throws that he knows he can make. His accuracy drops dramatically when he tries to work outside of his "zone" and the numbers support that.

 

And Denver's defense was pathetic, big difference.

Cutler's turnovers did hurt more than Pennington's, but Denver's passing game averaged almost 50 yards more per game, almost 1,000 yards for the season and more TD's. Denver's D was ranked 29th overall, that's why they were so poor last year, their #2 offense was wasted.

It's not unfair at all, it's a good representation of what happens when Pennington tries to work outside of his passing zone. There are many other examples just like that throughout his career, that just happens to be the most readily available on youtube. It shows that Ginn had his man beaten, Chad put all of his effort into the throw and it still was underthrown, off target and almost intercepted by a hobbled Bills defender. Had McGee been healthy in that game I would almost guarantee that we wouldn't have even attempted that play.

 

IMO, with Jay Cutler, Miami would not have gone 11-5.

 

Gotcha, and I agree with that thought, I love efficient, tough, Qb play, I'm more of a Griese guy then a Marino guy if you get my meaning?

I like 300yd passing games as much as the next fella, but 200yds, win the time of possesion, no turnovers to me is just as thrilling because it's smart football for what we have to work with, granted that means Teddy Ginn is not being used to maximum potential, but if it's winning football it's winning football.

I'm old school enough to recall Paul Warfield catching like 30 balls a season..but they were important catches, like Ginn against the Jets in the last game of the season.

BTW, if one is really old school, they remember that we were the underdogs against the Redskins in the Super Bowl.

 

L2g ftw!!!

 

yea we go 12-4 or 13-3

 

Same defnese as Denver?

It wasn't the same defense as the year before. Porter and Taylor both have mentioned that in their interviews.

No one is saying Pennington is bad. They are saying that he limits the offense.

If Pennington had a stronger arm he would be a much better QB. Plain and simple.