The Las Vegas Raiders made a big splash on the first day of free agency when they signed defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to a four-year, $110 million contract. Defensive tackle was one of the team’s biggest needs and they added the best option available in free agency. While many gave the Raiders rave reviews for landing the former Miami Dolphin, not everybody was as high on the move. Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report ripped the move as the worst contract of free agency so far. “The five-year veteran has never been a first- or second-team All-Pro or a Pro Bowler, he’s never posted double-digit sacks, he’s registered five total takeaways in five seasons, and he’s never put up a double-digit approximate value rating at Pro Football Reference (typically the threshold for stardom, and a mark that more than 100 players reached in 2023),” Gagnon wrote in a March 20 column. “Should Wilkins really be the fifth-highest-paid defensive player in the NFL? The market is what it is, but I believe the Raiders will regret this one.” The Raiders are paying a steep price for Wilkins but if they hadn’t paid that price, another team likely would have. He’s not at the Chris Jones level of defensive tackles but he’s a major upgrade at a serious position of need for Las Vegas.
100% truth in this and why I always said that signing him to a contract that pays him like a game changer is not feasible. I loved Wilkins, I’m happy for him, but he’s not worth the money they paid him. My bet is he trends back to his normal production next year, which is fine, and his durability is top notch, but how much longer can he play at that rate? The Dolphins made the right move in not paying him that ridiculous amount.
I was sorry to lose Wilkins. Watching games, when I’d see Wilkins make a tackle for loss or get a sack on the qb, I’d scream out “THE BEAST!!!!” I loved the combo of Wilkins and Sieller and thought the two of them played well off of each other. I wish Wilkins would have been signed the previous 2 off seasons. Congrats to Wilkins for getting his powerball contract. I really like him and I’m happy for him but there is no way we would have or could have paid him that kind of money, not for a single season of phenomenal performance. I don’t want to see Wilkins decline in performance. I like him THAT MUCH, but I have a feeling he’ll have the same impact with the Raiders that Ndomnakong Sun had with his tenure with the Dolphins…not nearly as effective as they were with their previous teams.
The Raiders have done this numerous times over the years. It's never once worked out for them. Warren Sapp, Randy Moss, Trent Brown, Tyrell Williams, Sean Smith, D'Angelo Hall, Javon Walker.... It's always but them. I damn sure am not rooting for that to happen again. I like the Raiders and I like Wilkins, but it was a huge overpay.
There is no way its the worst. He is still one of the better players at his position who is durable and is a great teammate. Compare that to Hunt who is now right around the highest paid guards and you can't make the case he is elite.
Next season Wilkins has the 18th highest cap hit in the entire league, he's being massively overpaid. His contract will probably work out worse than the one the Dolphins gave Suh and Suh was a much better player.
Some problems with the analysis. 1) NFL Contracts are based on future expected production, not previous production. 2) While some players dominate from the start as a rookie, most players’ production ramps up over the first 3 years of their career. 3) Scheme/coaching matters. In Wilkin’s first years he was asked primarily to plug the line and stop the run, it was only under Fangio he was given the remit to penetrate into the backfield. 4) The saying “past production is the best predictor of future performance” carries the unspoken assumption that everything else remains the same. 5) Comparing contracts signed in 2024 with contracts signed in prior years is not very valid as the salary cap changes every year, and some years quite significantly. 6) Comparing contracts is not apples to apples, as there are different bonuses, front loaded or back loaded contracts, different base salaries and different guaranteed amounts. 7) Things like rookie contracts, RFA and franchise player designations mean that only a small number of players reach the open market, which drives up the price of good players who reach the open market. 8) There are only a limited number of players on the field at a given time. For example a team with a defense of 11 x 60 rated players and 11 x 40 rated backups will have more success than a team with a defense compromised of 22 x 50 rated players. That means that a player who is 10% better than average commands much more than a 10% increase in salary None of this is to say that I think what the Raiders paid Wilkins is the correct number, just that the analysis used in the article to say that the contract number is wrong is badly flawed.
Rookie contracts (based mostly on where they are drafted) are based off of expected future performance. 2nd, 3rd, etc. contracts are 99% based off of past production. If Wilkins had finished last season with his average year (3-4 sacks, 50 tackles, etc) he most likely is still a Dolphin and no one is giving him nearly $30m a year.
The market set the contract that he got. The Raiders didn't bid against themselves. They know that his presence on their interior is going to make Max Crosby even better and stats be damned, he's going to push their defense to a better level.
Playing along side of Crosby may indeed make the Raiders defensive line a dominant force in the AFC West, but we’re talking about the Raiders.
I think he will play well in Las Vegas. Maybe they overpaid some… but definitely won’t be anywhere near the ‘worst’. Not even the worst on their team. Minshew, yikes…
Last year Wilkins had 65 tackles, 9 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and 2 fumble recoveries. Seiler had 63 tackles, 10 sacks, 1 FF, 2 FR and 1 INT. Seiler signed a 3-year $30.75 million deal with $8 million signing bonus and $17.725 million guaranteed over the contract. Wilkins signed a 4-year $110 million deal with $24 million signing bonus and $82.75 million guaranteed over the contract. Wilkins is a good player and a big personality but you can't tell me he is worth that much more than Seiler. So either Grier robbed Seiler or Wilkins robbed the Raiders.
It‘s both, Sieler singned with us while he was injured and had to take a contract way under market value and Wilkins got paid a little to much.
Sieler wasn't injured when he signed. He signed in August, shortly after they couldn't come to terms with Wilkins on an extension.
He shortly signed after he got injured in practice and probably would have gotten a similar deal to the one Wilkins got this offseason, if he didn’t sign it last season. So it’s still both, Sieler is underpaid and Wilkins is a little bit overpaid…
I agree that its probably a bit of each, although I do think Wilkins' contract is further off than Sieler's. Not that Wilkins is a bad player, but the DT position is just not that impactful that it should account for that high of a percentage of a team's cap space. I don't think a minor injury in practice influenced Sieler's contract. If it had, then his agent should be fired as there was no urgency in getting a deal done at the time. You could argue he should be fired anyway as playing out the season definitely served Wilkins right.
I‘m pretty sure it did, especially for a player like Sieler who wasn’t a high draft pick. Sure Wilkins bet on himself and won, but he already had earnings with being a high draft pick, for Sieler that’s a totally different story. No reason to fire your agent, when he doesn’t really have leverage…
It's a bit of both. Grier robbed Seiler, and the Raiders overpaid for Wilkins. Still Wilkins has been the focal point of the defense since he was drafted and he is a former first round pick. Seiler has been an overachiever but Wilkins is the more talented of the two and has higher pedigree.
