This will probably be posted on the main page soon, but I wanted to get it out there before something major happened to change everything. Phunwin’s Offseason Preview, Part 1 By Phil Unwin The offseason is here, and we’ve entered that dead time of the sports calendar, where football has just ended, baseball hasn’t started and basketball isn’t really exciting yet. So, what better way to kill time than with a look at what the Phins might be looking to do this offseason? I will preface by adding that I am by no means a draft expert; Simon, Keith and Chris have forgotten more about the draft than I’m going to know, so save for throwing out a couple names here and there of guys I like, I’m going to defer to their knowledge. Today, let’s start with the glory boys: quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. Quarterbacks – For once, this position appears solidified for the foreseeable future. Chad Pennington comes off an MVP-quality season (if not necessarily an MVP-quality playoff game) and figures to be under center next season. The front office loves 2008 second round pick Chad Henne and views him as the QB of the future. In fact, Pennington’s fine 2008 season gave Miami a dilemma many other teams would kill for. I believe the plan was for Henne to sit behind Pennington for a year, grow with the team, learn the offense and pick up a few things from one of the most intelligent QBs in the business. Instead, Pennington played so well that he’s locked up the 2009 job and created a brewing controversy for the 2010 season. Pennington will be a free agent after 2009, and if he plays as well in 2009 as he did in 2008, he’ll have surely created a healthy market for his services, and probably earned more than a little support to remain a starter in Miami. I think the front office would love to keep him on a year-to-year basis until Henne beats him out in training camp, but Pennington figures to look for a little more long term security than that, and if he repeats his tremendous 2008 season, he’ll deserve it. As for 2009, the situation is pretty well set in stone: Pennington starts and Henne backs him up. The only drama is with the third string. For good or for ill, it doesn’t look like John Beck fits in the team’s plans any longer. I’ve long felt that too much was made of his 2007 struggles; in games, his decision-making was quite good, and that’s the hardest thing for a new QB to pick up. Throw in a complete lack of quality practice time for most of the season, a ramshackle offensive line and no receivers to speak of, and it’s small wonder he looked bad. But, again, they seem to have made their decision; there’s just too many rumors out there about moving Beck and the front office’s dissatisfaction with him for the idea to be discounted. What could the team get for Beck? I’ve no idea. In a best case scenario, probably a fourth round pick or a player who’s good enough to contribute as a backup or in a rotational situation. A swap with Dallas for LB Bobby Carpenter has been mentioned by plenty of folks. CK has suggested WR Miles Austin as a possibility if the Cowboys keep Terrell Owens around and that also makes some sense. Personally, I like the idea of sending him to Baltimore to reunite with Cam Cameron, maybe to get Tom Zbikowski in return, if the Ravens resign Jim Leonhard. Worst case scenario, other GMs would view him as a (soon-to-be) 28 year old bust and give up nothing, or the relative equivalent of nothing (a 2010 7th rounder). I would think a 5th or 6th round pick is the likely outcome. I would not expect the Dolphins to spend lavishly on a QB in free agency. If a halfway decent veteran falls through the cracks and is willing to sign for a minimum deal to be an emergency option, perhaps they will explore that. Charlie Batch, David Carr and JP Losman are available and strike me as guys who might at least consider such an arrangement, but all would likely be actively seeking backup jobs, not third string jobs. In the draft, any action at QB would surely come late, if at all. Apart from being set in both the short and long term at QB, this is an absolutely horrid draft for quarterbacks. One semi-popular theory holds that the Dolphins might look for a “Wildcat specialist” at QB late in the draft. This theory ignores the fact that a third string QB can only come in the game if there’s an injury, meaning that Henne would have to be relegated to third string on gameday for that to work. This is a spectacularly bad idea given Pennington’s checkered (to say the least) medical history, and thus can be discarded as a serious consideration. As for the proverbial “late round gems”, Chase Daniel strikes me offhand as a guy they could look at. He’s short, has a noodle arm and played in a gimmick offense, but he was insanely productive, was a three year starter and is a sharp kid who works hard and is both physically and mentally tough. Finally, I would be remiss not to tell you that I would love nothing more than to see my fellow University at Buffalo alumnus Drew Willy hear his name called by the Dolphins in round 7. Running Backs – Here’s a position where the Dolphins are set for the short-term, if not necessarily long term. Ronnie Brown comes off a Pro Bowl season, predicated in large part on his single-handed destruction of the New England Patriots in week 3. Fun fact: Brown had the 6th highest QB rating in the NFL if you count non-qualifiers. Truly, Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat offense was a match made in Heaven. In fact, the only criticism that people had about Brown this year was that he didn’t run the ball enough (214 carries), which is obviously something over which Brown has no control. Brown played a full season in 2008, for the first time in his career, and showed no ill effects of the ACL tear that cut short his 2007 season. Ricky Williams remained effective at the age of 31, with 160 carries for 659 yards and 4 TD. He’s one of the best backup running backs in the NFL, capable of punishing an opposing defense when the team rotates Brown out of the game. Finally, Patrick Cobbs was frequently the team’s secret weapon; with 19 catches for 275 yards and 2 TD, Cobbs was one of the league’s more productive third bananas. As I said, the short-term is settled, but I don’t think the long-term is. Brown and Williams are both free agents after the 2009 season. Williams will be 33 at the start of the 2010 season, and while he’s had a career that’s without any real historical parallel, 33 is damn old for a running back, and Williams might be seriously thinking about retirement by then. This time for good. To that end, I’m reluctant to count on Williams for anything beyond 2009, and I suspect the front office is as well. The bigger issue is Brown. He’s coming off a tremendous, healthy season, and will be hitting the free agent market after 2009. If he stays healthy, and shows once and for all that his injuries are behind him, he could be looking at a huge free agent contract. The question will be whether the Dolphins are prepared to give it to him. On the one hand, he’d be an ultra-productive running back without a ton of mileage on his tires. On the other, he’ll turn 29 during the 2009 season, an age when running backs start to age about as well gallons of milk, and be looking at a contract that pays heavily through at least his 32nd birthday and maybe longer. Personally, I believe the logical solution here is to use the franchise tag on Brown in 2010, given that it’s very reasonably priced for running backs ($6.6 million), with an eye towards a replacement in 2011. Teams that give long term contracts to 30 year old running backs often find themselves hamstrung by those contracts sooner than they expect. The Dolphins previously picked running backs at the end of the 2008 draft, and while neither Jalen Parmele nor Lex Hilliard made any sort of impact, I would not at all rule out the possibility of the team drafting a player in the mid to late rounds with an eye toward replacing Williams in 2010. At a minimum, it’s a position where you might find special teams contributors on draft day, something the front office will still be seeking. It’s not fair to call Brown and Williams both “Wad Ball” running backs, but they are relatively similar running backs in terms of size, speed and style, and so a change-of-pace guy might be a priority (sort of like what we all thought the Phins had done with Lorenzo Booker). A guy like Mike Goodson, who Boomer discussed at some length (http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/spo...g/2009/02/london_calling_draft_winds_iii.html), would make sense, given that he has home run speed and good hands. He might well be the sort of change of pace guy that they’d like. Another guy I’d like to see the front office consider, should he fall to round 3 or 4, is James Davis. Davis wouldn’t be much of a change of pace from Ronnie Brown, but could be a guy they see as another Marion Barber. Glen Coffee might be a guy they’d look at in the later rounds. Coffee doesn’t strike me as especially big or fast, and was probably helped tremendously by Alabama’s offensive line, but he was ultra-productive in the best conference in college football, and at 6’1, 198 pounds, he has the frame to add some beef. He’s also a guy whose stock looks like it’s all over the place right now, and a good showing at the combine could shoot him up the draft boards. I don’t expect the Phins to be active at all in pursuing running backs in free agency. For openers, the crop of free agent running backs is absolutely awful; there’s scarcely anyone out there who could beat out Ricky Williams for the backup job, and the few players who could help probably wouldn’t be interested in signing a deal now to be a third-stringer in 2009 and backup in 2010. Maybe JJ Arrington would pique the team’s interest as a kick returner and third down back, but no one else really comes to mind. Wide Receivers – Here’s an area where we might see some real activity. The Dolphins’ receiving corps was surprisingly adequate in 2008. Coming into the season, this had the look of a bottom 5 unit, yet by season’s end, it no longer looked like a significant problem. Ted Ginn showed real growth from last season and made some big plays at the right time, particularly in the season finale against the Jets. He needs to be more consistent, however; he had some drops and far too many games when he was absolutely invisible. As Miami’s nominal #1 receiver, Ginn has to continue his upward trend, especially in 2009. 2009 will be his third season, often one in which receivers make a leap. Davone Bess came out of nowhere to emerge as an excellent chain-mover; he’s got sticky hands and runs crisp routes. A lack of blazing speed limits him, but he’s a prototype #3 receiver and figures to be part of the long-term plan. It’s not inconceivable that he could become the new Wes Welker, in fact. Greg Camarillo is, in many ways, Bess’ twin, getting by on smarts and good hands, despite any real speed. Camarillo, unfortunately, is coming off an ACL injury, and while he figures to be ready for the season opener, one wonders if he’ll be at 100%. Brandon London has size, speed and potential, and is a potential sleeper. His immediate contribution figures to be on special teams, but he could work his way into the rotation. Free agent pickup Ernest Wilford was an expensive bust and is certain to be cut. Ultimately, the Dolphins would like a bona fide #1 receiver. Ginn is really better cast as a deep threat, while Bess and Camarillo are both better suited to the 3rd down, chain-mover role. The need is not a pronounced one; as they showed last season, this team can get by just fine with Ginn, Bess and Camarillo catching passes, but it’s a need just the same. Miami wide receivers caught just 5 TD passes last season. Surely, the front office will be at least taking a look at a guy who can make things happen in the red zone. This was supposed to be Wilford’s role, but he was a dismal failure there, and so Anthony Fasano became the default red zone go-to guy. Wide receiver is a position where I would expect the Dolphins to make at least one pickup. Happily, receiver is one of the more talent-rich positions in this year’s draft. I love Percy Harvin, but his medical history is sure to scare off a front office as intolerant of injured players as this one. Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Britt have been popular names on our message board, and with good reason. Both add size to a rather small receiving corps, and could be the red zone threat the team seeks. I’m not sure the Phins would take either with the #25 pick in the draft, but if they were there at #44, I think Parcells and Ireland would think long and hard about it. In the second or third round, Brian Robiskie (someone on the board loves him, and I apologize, I’ve forgotten who you are, but I didn’t want to be accused of plagiarizing) and Juaquin Iglesias (a favorite of CK’s) make some sense, as both had tremendous production in college, and while neither presents huge size, both are tough, heady players. Speaking of huge size, there’s 6’6 Cal Poly WR Ramses Barden. 36 touchdowns over the last two years certainly meet the “production” requirement, even if it was against smaller school competition. Plus, it might force my father-in-law (Cal Poly, Class of ’68) to become a Dolphins fan, which is enough for me to pull for Barden as a 3rd or 4th round pick all by itself. I’d be remiss not to mention Pat White, who has set Dolfans’ hearts aflutter with the idea that he, apart from contributing at receiver, could be the aforementioned “Wildcat specialist”. To be sure, putting White in the game would add an additional element of flexibility to the offense and give defenses one more thing to think about; we can be fairly certain the Dolphins aren’t going to call a post pattern for Chad Pennington when he’s split out wide. White has speed to burn, and is a smart football player, but again, this front office has shown a tremendous lack of tolerance for injuries, and White been hobbled with injuries to just about every part of his body over the last four years. Throw in the difficulty of transitioning to receiver, and I just don’t see it happening. In the late rounds, Clemson’s Aaron Kelly and Free Shoes U’s Greg Carr are both big guys who might be looked at as jump-ball specialists. In free agency, there are some intriguing names, but the more intriguing names are those that aren’t free agents but may be available. The top free agent available is TJ Houshmandzadeh. Housh certainly fulfills the “productive in the red zone” requirement, with 32 TD over the last four years. Like everyone’s favorite potential Dolphin, Anquan Boldin, he’s 6’1, but he plays bigger than that, with excellent leaping ability. He’ll be 32 at the start of the season, but seems to have aged well, and doesn’t have much in the way of injuries to worry about. I question Houshmandzadeh’s downfield speed and his ability to make yards after the catch, but he’s absolutely a stud inside the 20, and that strikes me as the #1 need for this offense. The Bengals might slap the franchise tag on him, and if they do, you can probably scratch him off the list. Reclamation project Antonio Bryant burst out as a #1 receiver last year. He’s always had the skills, but bouts of immaturity have always prevented him from realizing his potential. Physically, he’s pretty much everything you want in a receiver; bigger and stronger than Houshmandzadeh (and most others), and a good bit faster too, not to mention two years younger. One has to wonder if he finally figured everything out, or if he was a one-year wonder looking for a big paycheck. Many of the other names in free agency are quality players but don’t add much that the offense doesn’t already have. Shaun McDonald, Lance Moore, Bobby Engram, and Amani Toomer are all heady players with good hands who can reliably move the chains. Moore brings a little more to the table, because he’s better at making yards after the catch, but at 5’9, how many smurfs do we need at wide receiver? That’s great, but they aren’t going to be huge improvements over Bess and Camarillo. Devery Henderson and Nate Washington both run a sweet fly route and can keep a defense honest downfield…just like Ted Ginn. Reggie Williams is a huge receiver (6’4) who has shown tremendous ability to go up and get the ball in the end zone, but the Dolphins might be understandably gun shy about going after another big Jacksonville receiver. Bryant Johnson is a big guy who still has the word “potential” stamped on his forehead. However, after six full NFL seasons, it’s probably time to accept that he is what he is: a big guy with decent wheels who has a so-so motor. I believe that Parcells and Ireland are more interested in overachievers than underachievers. Miles Austin has been mentioned a few times and makes sense if the Cowboys don’t slap a prohibitive free agent tag on him. More on this below, but Austin would seem to fit the front office’s needs to a tee: he’s a big guy with downfield speed, and Parcells and Ireland know him well from Dallas. As I said, the most interesting names are those that aren’t on the free agent market yet. Anquan Boldin heads the list: Boldin seems to want out of Arizona in the worst way and with Kurt Warner and Karlos Dansby hitting free agency, the ever-tightfisted Cardinals might be inclined to oblige, especially after Steve Breaston emerged as a fine player in his absence. Boldin would be a near-perfect fit in Miami with his size, leaping ability, soft hands and red zone ability. The problem is that he won’t come cheap. After Dallas, for reasons entirely their own, gave up first and third round picks for Roy Williams, the price tag on Boldin went through the roof. If the Cardinals are inclined to trade him, I suspect that it will take a minimum of Miami’s first round pick and one of the two second round picks to get their attention. This, of course, is the downside to having a good team; it takes more draft picks to get a deal done; I think any team with a top 12 draft pick could probably swap that for Boldin straight up. Given that, I don’t see Miami making a move for Boldin. However, there’s another malcontent receiver Miami might potentially be interested in…hang on, I’m putting on my flame-******ant suit…Terrell Owens. Owens may have worn out his welcome in Dallas, depending on whom you ask. ESPN is periodically posting stories about how the Cowboys might part ways with T.O. Whether that’s credible or not is anyone’s guess, but only the most dense football fan would be surprised if the Cowboys cut Owens. He’s 35, makes a ton of money, hates Jason Witten, isn’t too fond of Tony Romo, has a well-documented history of undermining his coaches and QBs, and there probably aren’t enough pass attempts to placate Owens, Witten and Williams. Would the Dolphins consider picking up Owens if he were cut? They’d have to be on the short list of teams that would consider it. Owens was on his best behavior with Parcells in charge in Dallas. Tony Sparano would obviously know him well enough, since he was on the coaching staff when Owens was there. Personally, I attribute Owens’ good behavior more to the fact that it was his first year on the team; Owens has set a fairly consistent pattern of behaving well for his first year or so, then acting up progressively more as time goes on, before having a meltdown that precipitates his exit. If he’s cut, I think they would at least look at him, and Parcells, Ireland and Sparano would have a frank discussion about whether the risk was worth the reward. Incidentally, if Owens is cut, you can probably cross Austin off Miami’s shopping list, as the Cowboys would probably slap a higher free agent tender on him. As much as the front office might like Austin, I find it hard to believe that they would surrender a second round pick for him. Chad Johnson might finally be on his way out of Cincinnati. The Bengals, for reasons I did not understand at the time and understand even less now, turned down a pair of first round picks from the Redskins for Ocho Cinco. After the train wreck season he had in 2008, the Bengals would probably be thrilled to get even a 2nd or 3rd rounder for him. I don’t see him as a possibility; only the front office and coaching staff’s familiarity with Owens makes him a potential option. Johnson’s lousy attitude, declining production, inconsistency and problems staying healthy in 2008 all weigh heavily against the Phins offering anything of value for him. Torry Holt is certain to be available, as he’s got a $8 million bonus due on June 1. With the Rams in the midst of rebuilding, one doubts they’ll be willing to pay that. Boik posted a story that a team (believed to be the Titans) offered a first round pick for Holt during the season, and it was turned down, since the Rams were trying to win games and save Jim Haslett’s job. This is ridiculous on more levels than I have space to recount, but suffice to say that Holt would be an excellent fit in Miami. He's lost a step, but he had a couple steps to spare. I love the fact that he can take an 8 yard reception and turn it into a 50 yard touchdown; that's something we just don't have right now. Also, I think he'd adjust well to this team; Marc Bulger and Chad Pennington are similar in a lot of ways as QBs (both are very accurate on short to intermediate throws, neither has a super-strong arm, both are smart players). What would it take to get him? If the Titans offered a first in-season, they’d probably do a second round pick now, and surely no worse than a third. Will the front office be willing to make that kind of a deal? My gut says no, with the plethora of other options out there and so many needs that the draft picks can fill, but it’s possible. Next time: fullbacks, tight ends and the offensive line.
