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Comparing the Dolphins Starting WRs to the League's Best

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Fineas, Nov 29, 2012.

  1. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Both our WRs (Bess Hartline) are in the top 10 in the NFL in targets....it's comical to look at the names above them and the production of the other guys. We have given Hartline and Bess opportunities to excel, but neither WR is anywhere near top notch.

    Get a true dynamic #1??

    Both Bess and Hartline will do more with less targets. Sign one draft 2, but get us a friggin playmaker please!
     
  2. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    ESPN has Hartline tied for 16th and Bess tied for 22nd. They're our only 2 receivers and they can't even crack the top 15. LOL

    Between them we missed 4 important passes yesterday. A deep pass that a receiver with any type of long speed could've caught in stride. The under throw that hit Hartline in the belly..... the 2 drops by Bess IIRC..... and the out pass to Bess that was just over his short outstretched arms that a normal sized perimeter receiver probably would've caught.
     
  3. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    One of them will have a good game here in a couple weeks and people will vindicate their play. There are some posters on here who really believe the only difference between Welker and Bess... is Tom Brady.
     
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  4. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    I especially liked Hartline running with his arms extended for 5 yards...

    Good WRs run under that throw by RT and decent WRs JUST miss it.
     
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  5. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Blaming Brian Hartline for those deep passes is really one of the most genuinely asinine things I've seen used as a knock against him, and there have been some real wonders.

    If Brian Hartline ran a 5.30 and got behind defenders, it's the quarterbacks fault if he overthrows him.
     
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  6. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Not true.

    I like Hartline a lot, he was a very good Buckeye.

    But he impeded his own route to the ball. He misjudged it, and you can see it in his body language. Now the other one?? Obviously on RT
     
  7. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I'm not blaming him. Doing so would entail a belief that Hartline has the ability to change his genetics. Unfortunately, Tannehill has to make due with what he has to work with, and regardless of how inadequate a pair of starting receivers Hartline & Bess make, he still has to hit those throws when he has them. However, the reality of football is that not even HOF QBs will put every pass on the money and that sometimes WRs HAVE to make plays for his QB.

    I'm merely pointing out that there are plays left on the field that a better receiving duo would convert, that is--- unless you operate under the premise a WR is only responsible for catching passes that are right on the money. I mean, honestly, if we had Greg Jennings here on those routes and he pulls in both deep passes as he probably would, are you gonna throw your arms in the air in disgust while yelling at Tannehill for making him have to work a little for it? Great offenses have players who can make those plays.
     
  8. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think there's been a lot of good analysis in this thread, Phinsational has demonstrated a lot of good thoughts that just make sense, to me at least, I think we have a solid 2 and three, lets add the threat we need with a high resource, and lets roll.

    My first take would be that its comparable to the impact that a Darelle Revis has on the other 10 men on the field...space..

    2nd...Bess and Hart cannot make explosive plays out of nothing, nor
    after the catch.
     
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  9. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Anybody see the awesome 32 yard James Jones TD over the top of James Jefferson. How dare he make a play for his QB on an underthrown ball like that. lol.

    This throw would've totally been an INT in Miami with Hartline on the route. :yes:


    0:49 mark
    [video=youtube;ZBfHcdJOO4o]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBfHcdJOO4o[/video]
     
  10. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    That's a great point, Deej. Even the defense displays how important space is, except they're trying to take it away. Then you have our starting pair of receivers who diminish our space potential without any help from the defense. lol

    IMO we're ok with with Hartline as a secondary receiver and Bess relegated more to a slot role, but in a perfect world I'd rather have 2 studly upgrades on the outsdie and let Hartline & Bess serve as rotational compliments (where they can still produce 500+ yards/year). I actually believe Hartline would be quite effective if allowed more time in the slot b/c even though he's not fast he'd have a better chance of stretching the middle of the field than Bess [if lined up on a safety or linebacker], and he still has the off-the-line quickness to be effective in the short-intermediate game. Hartline would still see a lot of snaps, where as I think Bess is the one who would have more eaten into.

    I'm great with an addition of Wallace or Jennings and then a 2nd or 3rd rounder used on a playmaking type prospect.
     
  11. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    I remember in Hartline's college film that he was pretty good working the seam... or I have a bad memory.
     
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  12. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    We'll have to confirm with FinOops or BuckeyeKing but I believe you're right. I thought I remember him being pretty effective working in between the hashes. He's not a true vertical threat on the outside, but that doesn't have to remain true with him working inside. Personally, I'd go after 2 upgrades this offseason just to open up more opportunity for Hartline to work inside where he's a better asset IMO.
     
  13. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Fineas do you have a rebuttal to the correction of the original stats?

    Also, if you're going to remove the best game for one receiving tandem, you have to do it for the rest of the tandems in the comparison and then compare the data once again.
     
  14. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Perhaps Fineas's stats were outdated, as the further away from Zona we get, the lower the stats will gradually become.
    Ok, removing Roddy & Julio's best combined game (Dallas) we're left with:

    61.3% reception rate
    155 yards/game
    10 TDs
    9.2 yards/attempt
    15.0 yards/catch

    vs

    Hartline & Bess
    57.7% reception rate
    113 yards/game
    1 TD
    7.4 yards/attempt
    12.8 yards/catch

    *remembering that Roddy & Julio aren't afforded the same level of luxury regarding safeties playing up.
    I originally didn't remove a game from the Atlanta duo b/c they've been a consistently productive pair most of the season.
     
  15. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    The numbers I posted didn't include the NE because it hadn't happened yet. It is also pretty ridiculous to exclude an entire game for no apparent reason. It similarly makes no sense to only compare them to the duo that has been by far the most efficient in terms of ypa and ypc. Nobody is claiming Bess and Hartline are as good as the Atlanta duo or have been as efficient, so what's the point? Go ahead and do your "best game subtraction" method for all the teams I compared Bess and Hartline. Compare them to the Giants but take away the Bucs game in which Nicks and Cruz combined for 21 catches for 378 yards. Compare them to the Pats but take away their Seattle game. Compare them to the Texans but take away the Jaguars game in which Johnson and Walter combined for 20 catches for 327 yards. Compare them to the Cowboys but take away the second Giants game. Compare them to the Lions but take away the Titans game. Etc.

    And the safeties don't play any further up against the Dolphins then against other teams. I look at that at every game. Depending on down and distance the safeties generally play 12-16 yards off the LOS. That is true against the Dolphins and it is true against other teams. There is no systematic or discernible difference.
     
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  16. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That wasn't making him work for it. That was overthrowing an open receiver.
     
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  17. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think you can argue Safety position is not inherently correlative with respect for receivers or the passing game.

    Did you see how often Reshad Jones was in the box vs. the Patriots?
     
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  18. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    I'm not sure if you intended to have that "not" in there. If you did, I disagree. Different defenses play different styles. And even when the safety may line up a little closer to the LOS it doesn't mean he will stay there or move closer at the snap. It may be that he is playing up to try to bait the offense into thinking it can get open deep and he may retreat into a deep zone at the snap. In my opinion, the position fo the safeties at the snap tells us almost nothing about how much respect they have for the receivers or the passing game. Even when the free safety is up, relatively speaking, he is still generally at least 8-10 yards off the LOS which still gives him an 8-10 yard head start to he deep zone over the receivers, which is plenty to defend against the deep pass if the safety has any speed at all.
     
  19. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, that's a double negative. We're in agreement.
     
  20. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    I'll be surprised if he does that. We've been down this road before.
     
  21. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    True. Also, his supposed revised stats excluding the Cards game are bogus. Hartline and Bess caught the same 65.5% of the passes thrown to them in that game that they were doing over the other first 11 games of the season, so excluding that game did not reduce their catch% to 57.7% as phinsational contends. I haven't yet checked on the other stats he posted, but . . . .
     
  22. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Wrong. My math is accurate per ESPN.

    Hartline & Bess
    57.7% reception rate
    113 yards/game
    1 TD
    7.4 yards/attempt
    12.8 yards/catch

    And please stop being foolish in regard to the rest. One game doesn't make a season; a season's worth of games makes a season. I showed you exactly how underwhelming Hartline & Bess have performed for 92% of the season, yet for some reason you're hung up on illustrating the other 8%. Here's a word for you both: CONSISTENCY. IF they had any of it as a starting duo their stats would show as slight a variance when removing the Zona game as Julio & Roddy's when removing the Dallas game. If they were actually a solid starting tandem I should be able to remove a few games without seeing a huge drop in production. You know why? CONSISTENCY. The fact that you're trying to defend their lack of it is silly.

    But hey, we can recheck this after week 17 when the above stats will have come down enough on their own w/o the need to remove the Zona anomaly, which would only serve as insult to injury.


    Regarding the safeties, don't shoot the messenger. Our TE coach obviously felt it was an issue so I referenced it.
     
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  23. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    the one that hit Hartline in the belly was an overthrow?
     
  24. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You're skewing the data collection to make it comport with your personal beliefs. You're removing a game from Hartline and Bess without doing it for the rest of the sample, and you're restricting your comparison of Hartline and Bess to one with the best tandem in the league in terms of the variables in question.

    Why don't you try collecting data in an unbiased manner and see if it reveals what you believe on its own.
     
  25. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Are you just being difficult now, Dis? You know exactly what I mean so why the lawyerly approach?


    BTW, didn't NE have Julian Edelman and a 3rd or 4th string TE on the field for a lot of snaps?..... Plus, isn't TE involvement significant to NE's passing game? My point was that defenses understand roughly 50% of our pass attempts are headed to Hartline & Bess, yet safeties seem to care less about it.
     
  26. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Stop making excuses! I'm not skewing anything. Their own goddam stats are doing that for them just fine!!
    "Personal beliefs"? You're damn right it's hard to not personally believe that 92% of their "production" is anything more than mediocre.

    You don't have to compare the below to anything to know they suck..... and you can darn sure believe that all 31 other teams don't have a starting WR duo whose stats are significantly impacted when removing just one game (and it's not the removal of EACH player's best game; it's the removal of their combined best game, which shouldn't have much of an impact IF THEY'RE CONSISTENT).

    57.7% reception rate
    113 yards/game
    1 TD
    7.4 yards/attempt
    12.8 yards/catch


    Question: So what would you say about a veteran QB with a 16 game passer rating of 86 and 10 TDs who has a few outstanding games to pull his QBR up despite half his season being in the 60's & 70's? Effective starter?
     
  27. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Thanks for the discussion. :)
     
  28. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    youre welcome. Feel free to break down all 31 other team's starters minus one game of your choosing.
     
  29. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    There is a difference between the ESPN numbers and the PFF numbers. All of the players and teams in the original post were from PFF, so you can't compare apples to oranges. PFF doesn't count throwaways, etc., which I believe accounts for the difference.

    No, one game doesn't make a season, but it is part of a season, which is why it is ridiculous to exclude one game for one team but not for everyone. And your consistency argument is nonsense. Let's compare Bess and Hartline (minus the Arizona game) to Cruz/Nicks (minus the Bucs game) and Welker/Lloyd (minus the Baltimore game) based on the PFF numbers that properly exclude throwaways as targets, etc.. Since I have the stats prior to this last week's games at my fingertips from my prior analysis, I am not including this past week here so as to not have to recreate the wheel:

    Target%

    Patriots - 45.1
    Dolphins - 44.1
    Giants - 42.1


    Catch %

    Dolphins - 65.5
    Patriots - 64.0
    Giants - 56.8


    Yards Per Catch

    Dolphins - 12.6
    Giants - 11.4
    Patriots - 11.3


    Yards Per attempt

    Dolphins - 8.24
    Patriots - 7.21
    Giants - 6.45

    As indicated, even excluding their most productive game (a concept I don't agree with but am indulging you on for the sake of this argument) Bess and Hartline's efficiency numbers stack up very well against the starting WRs for the defending AFC and NFC champions, despite the fact that they have a rookie QB throwing to them and NE and NYG starting receivers have probable (Eli) and certain (Brady) future HOF QBs throwing to them. But I suppose you will argue that Welker/Lloyd and Cruz/Nicks are poor examples for comparison because they too lack CONSISTENCY, huh?
     
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  30. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Am I being difficult? Maybe it's a bit unfair to you, but lots of people suggest Hartline and Bess have it easy because they see single high safety looks, and I don't think that's really a valuable representation of how "respected" or how equipped the defense on that particular play is to deal with deep passing or passing in general.

    I don't think you can really make a good claim New England was at a significant talent disadvantage.

    Forgive my digression, but I think people should be thrilled with the game that Kevin Coyle put together against the Patriots. He was rolling with a cornerback they pulled off of waivers in September as their starter, and a Nickel who converted from safety that same time period.
     
  31. dolfan32323

    dolfan32323 ty xphinfanx

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    This could probably be in its own thread but I will post it here.

    Right now, Brandon Marshall is on pace to have 121 catches, 1576 yards, and 11 TDs. http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/9705/brandon-marshall
    Amazing what a top talent at WR can do with a QB throwing to him... sure would've been nice to see what Tanny could do with that talent as well.

    On top of that, he has 7 drops (not saying that is good). That ties him with the likes of Wes Welker and Reggie Wayne. He has 1 more drop than our own Davone Bess and less drops than Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, and Victor Cruz if you look exclusively at WRs.
    http://scores.nbcsports.msnbc.com/fb/leaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

    Just throwing this out there. I still wish we had kept him. I can understand the rationale for getting rid of him, but damn, this dude is tearing it up right now.
     
  32. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Marshall is havign a very good year. There is nothing surprising about it as he is a talented guy. But his bulk numbers obscure the fact that as a receiving corps the Bears have been no more efficient than the Dolphins. In fact, they've been less efficient. The Dolphins have averaged 8.52 yards per attempt and 14.21 yards per completion when they have thrown to WRs. The Bears have averaged 7.98 yards per attempt and 12.37 yards per completion when they have thrown to receivers. It's just that when they throw to a WR it is almost always Marshall. Last year, without Marshall, the Bears were actually more efficient throwing to the WRs, averaging 8.35 yards per attempt and 14.91 yards per reception.
     
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  33. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    The Bears also had Johnny Knox and his 19.6 Y/R last year. So, there's that.
     
  34. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Marshall is having a good year, but he hasn't made their offense more efficient. They are just feeding him the ball instead of feeding Matt Forte as much as they did last season.
     
  35. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Forte's carries aren't really that down from last year. 16.3 compared to 16.9 last year.

    What's down are his yards. He was at 83 a game last year, only 68 this year.
     
  36. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    He averaged 6.3 targets in 2011. He's averaged 3.8 this season. He's getting thrown to a lot less, presumably because the ball is going to Marshall.
     
  37. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    But that's a good thing.
     
  38. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Why? Is their offense more efficient than it was last season?
     
  39. dolfan32323

    dolfan32323 ty xphinfanx

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    Because they actually have a WR to throw to now. You could put a target dummy out there in pads and helmets and it would be as good as Marshall's complementary receivers are.
     
  40. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    There is that. The point is that from an efficiency standpoint, they were better off with Johnny Knox and spreading the ball among 4-5 different WRs than they are this year forcing the ball to with Brandon Marshall. Coincidentally (or not), the Dolphins WRs are also more efficient this year without Marshall than they were last year with him. That may have to do with Henne/Moore v. Tannehill. Or it may not.
     

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