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Confused about Beck's season

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Phincanuck, Jan 13, 2008.

  1. Phincanuck

    Phincanuck New Member

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    Gentlemen,
    I have been reading some of the posts here at Celtkin.com, since Finheaven.com is down, but had not joined the conversations. However, I think it would be more than fair to use my first post to talk about Beck.
    He deserves a shot next year as our starting QB. Although, having an amazing rookie year would have been a great indication of his talent, the fact that he did not do incredibly well does not mean he is a bust.
    I found a site that shows you a list of the best rookie quarterbacks of all times:
    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=list/rookieqbs
    Yet, not all of them had incredibly long and good careers.
    I also researched the rookie careers of most of the great QBs in the last 20 years, and none of them had a bad rookie year. I used this link for that: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/
    I am a bit confused now. I am not sure if I should be encouraged by the fact that not all quarterbacks with a great rookie season are in the HOF, or disappointed that all of the great quarterbacks heading or already members of the HOF had at least a decent rookie season.
    Some food for thought I guess...
     
  2. Phincanuck

    Phincanuck New Member

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    I guess if we want to be able to judge, we need to define what a good year or bad year is. For me, he had a bad year. His overall QB rating was 62.0. He completed only 56.1% of his passes. He threw 1TD, but 3 INTs. He had 4 games with less than 60.0 QB rating.
    Although he had a QB rating of 96.3 in his last game.
    I guess that is what I am using to assess that his year was bad.
     
  3. Danny

    Danny New Member

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    Is hard to say that he had a good or bad YEAR when he only played 3 games and parts of 2 others...he didn't have much talent around him and his 1st 2 games were in horrible conditions......could he had done better with more talent around him? Nobody knows that....He should get a chance next season imo.

    Ozzy rules!!
     
  4. PhinGeneral

    PhinGeneral PC Texas A&M, Bro Club Member

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    I agree. It's truly hard to tell given the lack of talent surrounding him and the small sample size. If he had started week 7 or 8 and lasted through the rest of the year he might have been demonstratively better at the end.
     
  5. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin Active Member

    John Beck is why Bill Parcells went against the grain and hired a QB coach David Lee.

    Is Beck the future? as a starter? as a backup?

    I don't believe in handed anybody anything, make'em earn it.
     
  6. dont fumble

    dont fumble Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The more I read, the more it becomes obvious that the locker room was imploding. Cameron and the the veterans were not on the same page but they agreed on Beck, though. They didn't want him to start since Lemon gave them the better chance to win. But Cameron was forced to start Beck by the owner and the team forced Cam to bench Beck by their play in Buffalo.
    I think Beck should be judged fairly by taking the circumstances into account. If he had played four games in NE, he would have a perfect record and would be the next great thing. Here he played on a bad team with an imploding locker room and vetereans that were not supporting him. No surprise he fumbled the first snap against Cincy. But the throws he made after a shaky start against Cincy looked good. He made good decisions, was patient, went through his options and he made accurate throws. Let's just hope he gets a chance with the new regime.
     
  7. PhinsPhan122

    PhinsPhan122 New Member

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    How are you going to judge a guy who played less than four full games for the worst team in the NFL, one that was threatening to be the worst in the history of the NFL? You can't do it. Give him an offseason, and then a fair chance next year and see what he does.
     
  8. Breed

    Breed New Member

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    He was much, much worse than what his QB rating indicated. If you go by QB rating, Trent Green was only 10.6 points better than Beck, while Lemon was only 9 points better than Beck. Anybody who watched the games could tell that Green and Lemon were much better than Beck in comparison.

    Here's how their adjusted QB ratings look:

    Trent Green: 73.75
    Cleo Lemon: 67.02
    John Beck: 42.85

    I'll use John Beck as an example...

    Completion %: 60 completions +8 rushing attempts (- the QB kneel)/107 passing attempts + 8 rushing attempts + 10 sacks

    YPA: 559 passing yards + 13 rushing yards (took away the -1 yard from the QB kneel) -69 sack yards/ 107 passing attempts + 8 rushing attempts + 10 sacks

    TD %: 1 passing TD + 1 rushing TD/107 passing attempts + 8 rushing attempts + 10 sacks

    Turnover %: 3 interceptions + 5 lost fumbles/107 passing attempts + 8 rushing attempts + 10 sacks

    In most cases, the adjusted QB rating will be significantly lower than the standard QB rating. Vince Young and Michael Vick are some notable exceptions to the rule....
     
  9. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    What you'll find is that most people are stupid.

    People think that a guy who plays 4 games has had ample time to prove his worth. They say that because he's older he should be more ready, ignoring the fact that he's older because he was in Portugal on a mission, not, amazingly, studying the playbook.

    I think the time to judge Beck is after the 2009 season.
     
  10. Ralphthedog

    Ralphthedog New Member

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    Lets give Beck the benefet of the doubt, he was thrown into a bad situation. Lets hope he gets a chance this year.

    RTD
     
  11. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    You cant really say. Hes played only four games with not so good talent around him.... like Boomer said, you have to wait a couple of years. There is only one thing that I cant stand about him and its his age. It bothers me so much its unbelievable.
     
  12. Breed

    Breed New Member

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    I don't view him as a bust at this time as he still has the tools to be a very good QB. 126 snaps just isn't enough to place final judgement on a somewhat young QB. With that said, in those 4 games, he played about as bad as one could possibly play. If he plays at that same level in '08, I will label him a bust.
     
  13. TOMMYGUNS

    TOMMYGUNS New Member

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    The new boss is here, he will evaluate, with the new qb coach, if Beck has it. If he doesnt, then he's gone. It's as simple as this. Why so many questions over this?
     
  14. High Definition

    High Definition No Smoke / No Drink 2011+

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    ^Basically.

    You don't judge a QB based on 4 games, especially with the least talented offensive unit in football (remember that Ronnie Brown was already on IR). Solidify the offensive line, bring in a veteran WR who is capable of being a #1 (but at least a sure starter) with some size to go along with a developing Ted Ginn, draft a pass catching TE in the 2nd or 3rd round, and then you'll also have Ronnie Brown hopefully coming back 100% healthy.

    Once the above is in place (obviously easier said than done), then we can assess Beck's play.
     
  15. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think key to Beck's development are the recovery of Ronnie Brown as a back, but also as a safety valve in the passing game, but also the play of Lorenzo Booker and the introduction of a downfield threat tight end. Beck worked best with Jonny Harline at BYU. I can see him and a Fred Davis or a Brandon Pettigrew becoming fast friends.
     
  16. High Definition

    High Definition No Smoke / No Drink 2011+

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    Fred Davis is the guy who came to mind when I made that post.

    I don't think he'll stick around until our late-2nd rounder, but you never know.

    What about Martin Rucker from Mizzou?
     
  17. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    Boom, what are your thoughts on Martin Rucker? I've read that he is one of the most ready and complete TE's in the draft (Good hands, intense blocker, etc) with very few weaknesses in his game. I'm not much of a college football fan, so I only know what I read.
     
  18. Dors156

    Dors156 New Member

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    I will say Beck had a bad year last year, but I will defend him in this sense. He didnt have the workhorse Ronnie Brown that Green had in the begining of the year. Brown would have made Beck's job much easier because Brown was a guy that would get a total of 20-25 touches a game and make plays. Beck had Chatmann, and the suprise of Lobook. Green started the year with Chambers who did well for us except for the no TD threat. Beck had Booker, Hagan and Ginn. Ginn was the best of those targets IMO. Finally, there was no such thing as a TE on this team. Martin wasnt even existent for the majority of this season. Rookies like TE's but there wasnt one for Beck.

    Beck has to start next year, not a veteran because Beck I believe will be 27 by the start of the next season.
     
  19. Breed

    Breed New Member

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    Cleo Lemon had the same weapons, and he was much better than Beck.
     
  20. Dors156

    Dors156 New Member

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    Cleo has also been in the league for four years. Imagine if your first couple of starts in your rookie year are at places like Philly, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo. All our tough environments. Cleo is a veteran so I would hope he would do a little better.
     
  21. Breed

    Breed New Member

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    Cleo Lemon wasn't "a little better", he was much, much better. John Beck made Cleo Lemon look like Ben Roethlisberger....
     
  22. REV KEV

    REV KEV New Member

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    Thank God this debate will be over next year..., mark my words
     
  23. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, one thing that your greatest rookies had was they all started 10+ games, Beck started 4, two in terrible conditions and for a winless team.
     
  24. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I keep reading people post that its too early to declare Beck a bust. I dont think that's the debate at all. And I dont see anyone declaring him a bust. Drafting a QB or aquiring a vetarn QB to compete with Beck is not declaring Beck a bust contrary to popular opinion. What it is, is an acknowledgement that our QB position is weak going into 2008 and needs to be strengthened and an acknowledgement that Beck has failed to show enough to warrant him being "given" the starter's job. It does not mean he wont be competing for the starter's position. Beck will have ample opportunity to compete for the starter's job and if he can elevate his game to a level that he warrants starting, he will be our starter in 2008. The debate here is simply do we add competition to make sure that if Beck cant elevate his game we're not left with no other options
     
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  25. ATLFINFAN

    ATLFINFAN Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I dont have enough info to judge Beck after what this team just went through. It would be funny to be able to go back in time and see what the Broncos thought of Elway after his first few starts. At first, if I remember right, he was basically lost or overwhelmed. On one play he actually lined up under a guard to get the snap. That guard had to tell him to move over and get under center. Good thing for them they didnt give up him that early. I can wait to judge Beck.
     
  26. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    Perfect time to add this little input:

    As I noted many times befor I live in NY and listen to a well known radio sports talk show called "Mike and the mad-dog". Recently Mike was interviewing someone when the topic shifted to the Dolphins and John Beck. Mike asked this certain someone about whether he believes Beck has what it takes to be the Dolphins answer at QB. This person responed by saying this. " It might be a little bit early to know for sure if Beck has what it takes to be a #1 QB for the Dolphins,but from what i`ve seen, Beck should have shown a lot more even with the limited time he had. So,if you`re asking me now if I think he has what it takes to be the Dolphins answer at QB I would say NO."

    NOW. Guess who that "certain someone" was that gave that answer. It was a former QB by the name Dan Marino!. He might know a little about what it takes to be a successful QB in the NFL.
    I couldnt agree with him more. Dans gut feeling is Becks not the answer.


    For The Millionth Time....WE NEED A BACK UP PLAN!!!!!!!!
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2008
  27. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Exactly my take on it and I think everyone who wants to see us bring in another QB. We're not giving up on Beck, we're merely hedging our bet. We need a back up plan as you said
     
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  28. Etuoo33

    Etuoo33 New Member

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    It seems like you failed to see all the passes Lemon missed. To judge him as better,you must be going on his record as a starter. While they both had good and bad series, the single thing that makes me know that lemon is no better is all the wide open reciever, errant throws he made. Most of Lemon's success' were to underneath guys.:confused2:
     
  29. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And if that someone just happens to be Matt Ryan...well all the better...right?:001_rolleyes::lol:

    I think Beck should go into 2008 as "the starter" and get a fair shot at keeping the job.

    I also think the front office and "us" the Phinsfans need to remain flexible as to player moves, we only have so many picks to make major changes on our roster and right now, we really do not have the luxury of taking a Qb with a low pick, if one slides to us then we should not let "well we have John Beck" stop us from pulling the trigger and drafting a Qb.

    But trying to say "well Beck should have shown more" is correct in and of itself, every player should have shown more this past season, and Beck had a lack of weapons on offense that was almost criminal.

    That, and IMO, Cam hand cuffed Beck with his play calling he played Beck in "Safe Mode" and made Beck think far too much for a rookie.
     
  30. Dfan06

    Dfan06 New Member

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    John for two games in bad weather look just as good as Ben & Mcnabb but then suddenly the O-line went into thin air. if the o-line gives him time, a TE, and another receiver paired up with Ginn he can become great.
     
  31. Dfan06

    Dfan06 New Member

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    that's is so true! Cam wouldn't open the playbook up at all with John Beck.
     
  32. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    :ffic: I agree that flexibility is paramount here. The assessment of our weaknesses and strengths by the new organization is going to be critical going forward and we as fans have to place our hopes that they will make the right calls. I dont think any player is safe and probably none deserve to be.
     
  33. Breed

    Breed New Member

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    I guess you missed our inability to score while Beck was in as starter, in large part because of the number of sacks he took, and because he fumbled so much.

    Here's how their adjusted QB ratings look:

    Trent Green: 73.75
    Cleo Lemon: 67.02
    John Beck: 42.85

    I'll use John Beck as an example...

    Completion %: 60 completions +8 rushing attempts (- the QB kneel)/107 passing attempts + 8 rushing attempts + 10 sacks

    YPA: 559 passing yards + 13 rushing yards (took away the -1 yard from the QB kneel) -69 sack yards/ 107 passing attempts + 8 rushing attempts + 10 sacks

    TD %: 1 passing TD + 1 rushing TD/107 passing attempts + 8 rushing attempts + 10 sacks

    Turnover %: 3 interceptions + 5 lost fumbles/107 passing attempts + 8 rushing attempts + 10 sacks

    In most cases, the adjusted QB rating will be significantly lower than the standard QB rating. Vince Young and Michael Vick are some notable exceptions to the rule....
     
  34. THCMAN

    THCMAN New Member

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    Some people are just wayyy too impatient. You can't judge if a QB is a bust or not this early especially when he played on such a bad team, when he played so little, and didn't get most of the practice snaps, BUT...

    He looked BAD when he was out there, let's not quibble or dress it up, of all of the rookie QB's that I saw play he was by far the worst. He may end up being a very good player, it is way too early to tell. Brady Quinn looked MUCH better than he did. I know he was on a better team with MUCH better receivers, but at least he wasn't fumbling snaps right and left...

    I'm curious what you guys out there think about something. I'm pretty sure that Parcells take on his leaving college to go on a mission is probably radically different than Cam the choir-boy's...
     
  35. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    I'm not really sure how much that will play into Parcells decision on Beck. On the one hand Bill said he wanted good character guys, but on the other he said he wants players that live and breath football. There was an article posted here where it stated that Parcells would ask players in their interviews where football ranked in their lives and if they didn't say "at the top" then they weren't his type of player.

    This isn't an interview process leading up to the draft, Parcells took this job knowing what type of roster and players he was getting. Ireland even said that the Boys were very high on Beck, so I don't think that Beck's opportunity will be effected by something he did in college that is considered a positive.

    JMO though
     
  36. Dtronic

    Dtronic Season Tickets Sec. 150

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    Word!
     
  37. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I will be amazed if Davis is still there at 40.

    Rucker doesn't play in line, so I don't see it. Martellus Bennett is that Planet Theory type.
     
  38. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Most of his play is out wide or from the slot. He rarely lines up inside, so his blocking would be an issue.
     
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  39. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    How is Marino qualified?

    I mean seriously? Being a QB himself doesn't make him qualified.

    Two pretty good QB's in their own right - Phil Simms and Ron Jaworski - think he's going to be good, so whaddya know?
     
  40. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Remind me again how long Lemon has been in Cameron's system?
     

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