I love the guy. But even back in January 85 days ago I knew the Dolphins weren't going to be onto him. I believe I put the chances at 1 in 20 and that was even before they grabbed Mike Wallace. In my Draft Winds piece I wrote that Miami A) Would shoot their wad early at the receiver position making Cordarrelle a moot point come draft time, and B) Aren't likely to appreciate what Cordarrelle brings to the table, and C) May not even get a crack at him anyway.
Nice... Had another note to add to our previous discussion on Ireland and his obvious picks. 2011- Miami needs a C, RB, and some speed at WR. That's exactly what Ireland does. 2012- Miami needs a QB, a RT, and a pass rusher next. He does exactly that. He ignores WR but he eventually addresses it with a huge signing the next year. 2013- Miami needs a LT and a CB, followed by a RB. He could also use a veteran pass rusher. He's ignored the obvious signing at RT.
It's a logical fallacy to somehow attribute the value of a player based on his pre-draft process ranking, and that if guys rise it's because they are being overrated while the better guys are being dropped to the bottom because, hey, they were at one point top 10 picks! It likely behooves Miami to draft the best players available. If that's Patterson, it's Patterson. If it's Lane Johnson, it's Lane Johnson. You shouldn't be happy that players are being talked up as top 10 picks before or after the process, just how the whole thing works out. Guys like Barkley, Geno Smith, D. Moore etc were all considered top 10 locks at one point and now they aren't. As Miami (and other teams) do their research, they will likely conclude things that other people do. If anything, you want guys like Patterson to FALL out of the process, much like a Werner, etc. Lane Johnson was never considered a top 10 prospect until the combine. He's not one of those guys taking a tumble. He's on the rise. That's bad for Miami if they truly want him.
I think you've got that about right. In 2011, they clearly needed a center and a tailback (they had none at the time, they got Reggie Bush in late July). Those were the need positions, really. We TALKED a lot about quarterback but all they ever did all off season was vow to find Chad Henne some "competition"...not to replace him outright. Of course, they didn't even end up doing that, even by their own admission. Right tackle wasn't a need yet as they still had Vernon Carey on the roster. That situation didn't resolve into signing Colombo and releasing Carey until August, after camp had started. At center they had Jake Grove in 2009 and they didn't cut Jake Grove until right before the start of the regular season in 2010. Joe Berger was thrust into the starting job not because he was "the plan" there...it was him due to misfortune. There was no time prior to the start of the 2010 season to adequately replace Grove. So come the 2011 off season that was a need. Meanwhile both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had expiring contracts and the Dolphins had no arrangements to keep either, prior to the 2011 NFL Draft. So the NEEDS were center and tailback and indeed they take care of those in the first two picks. In 2012, pretty clearly the Chad Henne thing was over. They'd by their own admission signed Matt Moore to be the backup and not even to compete with Chad Henne so I don't know how anyone rationally would've thought Matt Moore to be "the plan" at the position. But they also let Marc Colombo walk and in free agency they never replaced him. I mean right tackle was a gaping hole. "Maybe John Jerry goes there, question mark?" Uhh, no. So what do they do? Quarterback at 8, right tackle at 45. Easy peasy. Just saying despite our tea leave reading and all that jazz, it's been pretty easy for outsiders to read what the Dolphins do in the draft. They all knew it would be Pouncey, half the mock drafts out there had it. They all knew it would be Tannehill. So I guess we have to ask ourselves...what do "they" all know about our plans in this draft? Seems like the answer to that question is Xavier Rhodes. Although the only clear need on the roster at the moment is right tackle, once again.
Do you really believe that? I don't. Not for a second. Every single NFL evaluator knew he'd blow the doors off the Combine. Absolutely nothing NEW or SIGNIFICANT happened there, in my opinion. On the other hand, they couldn't have known he'd make the best defensive ends in the draft look foolish at the Senior Bowl until he actually went out there and did it...
It's him or Lane Johnson. Since CB is somewhat taken care of or at least they've thrown money at it you'd say the first priority is Lane Johnson. After that it's a crap shoot of value matching up with position. It's somewhat like Jake Locker vs Mike Pouncey. If Locker had been there Miami would have drafted him, if not they were going for the guy they "wanted all along" in Mike Pouncey.
I think they'd trade up for him if they had to. It just depends how far they'd be willing to go. They have yet to even once trade up at any point during Ireland's tenure in the first round. He is in love with draft picks so I doubt he'd do it. It's to the point where he'd want to trade down later in the draft to recoup that pick if he did use it.
I stand corrected and allow me to re-phrase. When I said "Combine" I was thinking " pre-draft evaluation process", as I mentioned in this very same thread. I think people get FAR too caught up in the "He would have been a top 5 pick if he came out last year!" or "He was a top 10 lock at one point!"
I really doubt we'll be able to trade up for Johnson unless we severely overpay. If Fisher goes in the top 4, Arizona may try to trade up to ensure getting Johnson. They know Miami could try to leapfrog them. So could San Diego. After trading for Palmer they really need to protect him, and need to come out of the 1st with Johnson even more badly than Miami does. If I were them, I'd come back and get another OL in the 2nd round too. They really need to replace Adam Snyder at RG.
If that happens Miami will likely say let's try to reach a deal with K.C. otherwise let's sign Eric Winston. That may happen post draft for 2014 selections (remember Ireland is trying to survive this year). Arizona will more than likely as you said make their move. That leaves Miami with Rhodes as we're assuming although he may go at 10, don't underestimate that possibility. Miami has looked at a tremendous number of guys that would be a nice value at 12 like Richardson and Lutelei. All bets are off, but Rhodes is the likely guy.
Why would Tennessee take a corner? They have 2 good young starting corners already in Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner.
There is a difference between media types who adjust their respective boards a great deal, and then there are those in the business. Ireland himself has stated that rarely does a combine performance or a workout etc move the needle much, maybe half a round. Its the tape, and since they've likely watched more than one season, they knew to a great degree what they were getting. Menelik Watson is an example of the Combine not matching up to the tape in terms of quickness. But do you really believe he will fall in most evaluators eyes because of it?
Watson was confusing at the combine imo because based on reports, some were looking for him to run a sub 4.7 or 4.8 40, in line with what Johsnon and Armstead did. The problem was, he didn't look nearly as fast as those two- in other words it wasn't a question of a bad start or some other issue, he just didn't look fast. And based on the hype, that was very surprising. Watson is a heck of a player and prospect imo and I'd love to have him at RT if Martin goes to LT. But as to your question, will Watson fall in the eyes of scouts because of his combine performance? I would say yes, but at the same time his film shows power and reflexes that are first rate, he rarely got beat from what I saw. The metaphorical apple just isn't as polished now, and year in/year out for decades players rise and fall based on combine performance, Watson should be no exception. And if we have a better chance of landing him in the 2nd rd because of it, that works just fine for me.
I don't think it means he falls at all. Metrics are nice but the tape doesn't lie. If he can play, he can play and they'll take him high. Watson was essentially a 2nd rounder to begin with IMO. He was in that 30-45 range for me and really nothing he showed there will have changed that.
Well, to look at the combine from a different angle- will Terron Armstead rise because of his combine performance? I would think so, tape or no tape. And if some team bit on the combine performance and selected him, leaving Watson to us, I'd be tickled pink. Watson is arguably my favorite player in the draft, the combine didn't change that. But when you're expecting a guy to run like a deer at OT, like a Lane Johnson, and he runs more like Chance Warmack- that ain't good. Earlier reports of his speed were drastically overstated imo. Regardless, his power and reflexes are first rate, and I looked intently for him getting beaten outside, didn't see it. His kickslide is good, what bothered me if anything was what I perceived as flat footedness- he didn't look all that fast, but I kept reading how damn fast he was. The flat feet during the kickslide still bothers me btw, maybe the only part of Watson's game that I don't like. The combine proved otherwise. But he's a RT, not a WR- imo Watson can easily be one of the best OL to come out of this draft, and can be a monster/nearly perfect RT. I would absolutely love to see him in a Phins uniform if Martindoes in fact go to LT.
Do you mean this as "that's the guy they are taking" or "that's the best player in the draft and it SHOULD be"? I sincerely can't tell. I heard a few little nuggets, one of which I shared with CK, that made me think they were going to grab TA or CP, but now I just don't know. His take of "they are leaking this information because they want you to have it... nobody knows except Ireland, Philbin or Ross" makes too much sense to me. That being said I love CP and I'd be happy to hear his name called #12.
I handicapped a 5% chance at best that they'd go after Patterson way back in early January. That holds today and may even be lower due to the Hartline and Gibson signings.
