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Deshaun Watson

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Rick 1966, Jan 7, 2021.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Vegas odds are still in favor of him staying in Houston, but they've been getting smaller. They're now at -125 = 55.56%.

    However.. there has been a change in who is most likely to land Watson IF he gets traded. Jets are now #1 at +200 = 33.33% followed by Miami at +300 = 25% followed by Chicago at +400 = 20% and then Denver at +500 = 16.67%:
    https://co.sportsbetting.com/event/52245/deshaun-watson-next-team?tab=all

    Miami used to be in that top spot, now it's the Jets. I wonder if Vegas knows something.
     
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  2. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    They know X amount if money is flowing to one side and that the odds need adjusting in order to net them money.

    Stop thinking Vegas is something you use to obtain accurate thoughts and results about everything. It's not. Anyone who thinks it is is too stupid to walk and chew gum.
     
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Jets have just as many resources as we do and right now, Watson is in NY. That's why that spiked yesterday. He was also seen wearing a Falcons jacket, which is believed to be his favorite childhood team....so the rumors started there as well. However, folks need to remember that Watson wants out due to dysfunction within the organization- why would he go to a team that just fired their coach after a 1-win season?

    He named Miami because of the coaching/staff and the culture, so I have to believe that we'll be his "favorite" throughout the offseason.

    By the way, rumors leaked yesterday that Houston is starting to research possible trade partners. They've called Watson multiple times and he's not returning their calls. So I think this is really happening.
     
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  4. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Article here that proposes the Dolphins' getting Watson and a 2022 4th-rounder in exchange for Tua, the #3 overall this year, the 1st-rounder in 2022, and a 2023 #2 that elevates to a #1 if the Dolphins make the playoffs.

    I'd be all over that one. The Dolphins would get Watson and still have a 1st-rounder (#18 overall) and two 2nd-rounders this year.

    https://theathletic.com/2327328/202...ios-proposals/?source=dailyemail&redirected=1
     
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  5. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think the question there in terms of whether they view a Jets or a Dolphins trade as more attractive is who they view as a better QB option -- Tua, or who they would draft with the Jets' pick at #2 overall.
     
  6. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Its not about accurate results, its about probabilities and predictions. Its not accurate fact until it happens, of course.
     
  7. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    It doesn't matter what THEY view as the better option though. If Watson doesn't want to go to the Jets, then there's no trade.
     
  8. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It's actually one of the most accurate sources of predicting events precisely because changes in the flow of money usually reflect actual information. In football the best models for predicting games are only marginally better than Vegas odds, and all such models incorporate Vegas odds. No model that does not incorporate Vegas odds does as well as one that does.

    It's pretty stupid to dismiss Vegas odds if you're trying to predict something.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2021
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And of course you'll find no bigger financial incentive for being "right" on the planet. So not only is there the tremendous amount of information involved, but the stakes are also as high as possible. You'll find that combination of factors nowhere else.
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    While valid, I wonder if it's time-accurate or still lags behind real world information.

    For instance, when LeBron came to Miami, the Vegas odds were all over the place and Miami was like the #5 destination in the odds. But I saw a Tweet that LeBron had booked a condo for a month in South Beach so I made a $500 bet....that's one of the few times in my adult life that I've gambled (technically, it wasn't gambling since I knew the outcome). I can't remember the exact odds, but my bet was for 7 to 1 and two of the favorites were barely over even money.

    Of course, social media has evolved a lot in the past 10 years and so have sportsbooks, but I'm wondering if the line moves from Vegas on that type of information or if it takes bets to actually make the odds change. I think it's an interesting topic- I genuinely don't know the answer.
     
  11. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    In general, only the opening lines are the result of the bookmaker's analysis of the information available. They'll use both proprietary (or well known) models and their own judgment to set that. After that though, movements are mostly supply and demand, in other words bets have to be made.

    However, like Alex said they try to make sure they'll make a profit (doesn't always work though). So the lines can be tweaked afterwards to attract more bets on one side, pushing the line away from being an "unbiased" predictor if accuracy was the only goal. That's the bookmaker's perception of the "demand" changing of course. So in that sense any new information can influence the lines in real time, but lags will occur due to the balance of bets already made.

    So while Vegas lines aren't true "unbiased" representations of crowd intelligence, they're close enough that it's really difficult to beat them long term. Anyone who develops a better method also tends to end up changing the lines lol.
     
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  12. Fishhead

    Fishhead Active Member

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    The NY Post has Jets fans in a frenzy because Watson apparently “liked” their back cover which had his picture and the caption “Wat-ever It Takes”, so now they think he’s coming there.
     
  13. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Geez. Imagine. :death:
     
  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I read that and laughed hard- why would he be interested in going to a team worse than the one he's already on? NYC certainly has appeal due to the stardom factor, but nobody is going to go from potential league-MVP to a team destined for full rebuild mode (after 3 unsuccessful rebuilds right before that).

    Watson liked the idea of other teams negotiating his way our of Texas...I'm pretty sure that's all the "like" meant. It's ridiculous there's even a news story based on a like and people taking it seriously. Reminds me of the late George Carlin when he said, "The average American is a freakin' moron, yet half the country is actually dumber than that guy! That's what 'average' means people."
     
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  15. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Ha! I always reference that line.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2021
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  16. Fishhead

    Fishhead Active Member

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    Houston may want to partner with the Jets since they have 4 firsts over the next 2 drafts, but like Key said - why would Watson want to go there?
     
  17. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 Mother's Day 2021

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    Really hope he can get on a team that can give him a winning team. But Jets are in the need to build on up there. So really Texans have messed up the team there no thanks to the management.
     
  18. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    The reality is Watson wont end up here, it's just a hope I'm clinging to so I don't have to watch that disgusting piece of trash Tua take another snap again.
     
  19. Fishhead

    Fishhead Active Member

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    “Underwhelming”, sure.
    “Expected more from #5 overall”, I’ll give you that.

    But “disgusting piece of trash” seems more suited to the Rae Carruths and Lawrence Phillips of the NFL world, no?
     
  20. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If they gave up even 2 - 1st and 2 2nds what would they rebuild with?
     
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  21. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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  22. Fishhead

    Fishhead Active Member

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    I agree, from the Jets’ perspective - I was saying that from Houston’s point of view, the Jets probably have the most enticing supply of picks. I don’t see NY as a great destination for Watson, though, especially if they’re giving up a boatload of draft picks and they need so much help.
     
  23. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    So if we strike out on Watson, we go back to the board about weaponizing the offense for Tua. Obviously we have the draft and free agency, but with a smaller cap and multiple teams already in cap hell, maybe we can explore that heavily as well.

    Here's an idea ... Michael Thomas. The Saints shot their shot and fell short. Brees is probably done, they are like 100 million over right now. They need draft capital to restock their team on the cheap and start a rebuild. He seems like the type of receiver that might be ideal for Tua. I'd also kick the tires on Kamara, but I imagine he would command a very strong package.
     
  24. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    There will be a lot of opportunity this coming FA period...not a bad consolation prize eh?
     
  25. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We need to weaponize the offense no matter who is playing QB. Our receivers don't get separation and don't scare anyone. I'm fine with the TE's we have but RB is another area where a serious upgrade is needed.
     
  26. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    He has been a model employee and the team loves him.I don't really think he's a diva but he want's to win and has seen thing's go to crap around him the past few years.The team has not taken care of their end of the plan and he want's out.
     
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  27. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    New rumor out that the Texans don't think Tua is an adequate replacement for Watson.
     
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  28. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    No way?
     
  29. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I mean, he's not. You likely won't get Watson level production from Tua in year 2. You also likely won't get it from a rookie.

    It smells more like a negotiating tactic - "Look, you can include Tua, but he's not a replacement for a first rounder" type of thing. What is interesting is that it may signal they are negotiating and that Watson may really be moving.

    It also probably sends a message to the NYJ that they won't get away with subbing Darnold for a first rounder either.
     
  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No new news over the past few days other than Houston still hasn't talked to Watson...it's been hinted that he's not returning the front office's calls.

    What this will ultimately come down to is Watson himself. I think he's a pretty smart kid and honestly, he has no reason to talk to work at this point anyway. They won't give him permission to talk to other teams, so there's really nothing to be said in January. He's likely talking to other players, getting opinions of different cities and front offices, and thinking about if he does want to demand a trade...where would he want to go?

    The media can talk all it wants about possible destinations, how many 1st rounders it will take for the trade, etc. All of that is complete garbage though because it's based on the thinking that Watson will accept ANY TRADE when he clearly doesn't have to. While he may work with the front office, he has every right to say "I'll only go to x, y, or z" or even "I want to play for x or I'm sitting out the year." That's why the Texans aren't pushing him right now either, if they piss him off then he could play serious hardball and make their lives miserable.

    For instance, let's pretend he announces to the media that he wants to play in Miami and will reject all other trades. Just like that, 30 other franchises are giving up on efforts and the insane value estimates go straight out the window. Miami could come back saying, "We'll give you #17 and a new Coke machine for your stadium....take it or leave it." Wilson can give any franchise that much power simply by talking to the media.

    The more I've thought about this, the more I'm convinced that we won't hear a single peep over progress in Houston...regardless whether it's good or bad news. They're scared of Watson, and Watson's scared of screwing himself over, so both sides will probably wait things out and we'll still be talking about this heading into the month of the draft.

    Make no mistake though, our only hope of this happening is through Wilson's endorsement. If he decides he wants to go to Pitt or NE or any other team, that's where he will end up if he doesn't stay in Houston. He has all the power at the moment and he's very smart to stay quiet.

    At the same time though, I'm 100% back on Team Tua. Grab our playmakers in the draft, finish building out this powerhouse and let Tua develop. It would be great to have Watson and he'd be worth a few 1st rounders, but it's not enough of a need to give away everything we've built up for in this draft. Unless it's at a discount, I'd personally pass and focus on our current roster.
     
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  31. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Meaning: They are trying to drive the cost up.
     
  32. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    If I'm Grier, I would show zero interest in Watson and focus on rebuilding the team through the draft. And, for several reasons. Mainly because if they situation in Houston is as bad as is being reported, and if it continues to deteriorate, it's just a matter of time before Caserio reaches out asking if any interest. So, let them initiate contact. If Miami does, it just plays into Houston's hands in terms of asking price.

    Secondly, does Miami really want to give up on Tua after only one (partial) season? And, what message does that send to Tua? Hey kid, you're our QB. Well, unless we can get Deshaun Watson. But yeah, otherwise you're our guy. LOL.

    Lastly, let's not forget the massive contract DW just signed this past year. Now, I'm not a salary cap guy, so maybe there's a way to make that work. But, wouldn't it be in the Dolphins best interest financially speaking to not have the weight of that contract on their books? Wouldn't they be in a much better position to sign other players without that contract?

    JMHO...
     
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  33. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, there's no guarantees in the NFL, especially at QB, but Watson is about as close as you'll come to having a guaranteed 10+ year future HOF QB under center. That's worth paying for no matter what. And if I'm Miami, then I'm trying to work a deal where we keep Tua as well just in case Watson gets injured at some point in the next four seasons. If that happened, then we can cross QB off our list of needs entirely and probably cash in on Tua 3-4 years from now.

    Additionally, I don't think we're not out to make any big splashes in free agency- this team is ultra-committed to building through the draft. Watson is that exception to the rule though because it could make us a serious contender tomorrow. His age plus his talent and ratings- it's pretty much unheard of and this will be something that's talked about for decades if he's actually traded.

    So I'm pretty confident that we'd be interested, but I have a feeling that this will be a chess match and it could come down to draft night similar to the Rosen situation...which we played beautifully. We'll show marginal interest and let the Texans negotiate against themselves all the way up until that #3 pick is to be announced; and then we'll probably trade back to pick up additional 1st rounders. I could see us flipping a few early 1st rounders and then offering three 2021 1st round picks or something like that- we could turn that 1 pick into 3.

    Again though, this all comes down to what Watson wants- he really does have all the power. I'm sure he's getting pitched for playing in every city at this point, but what he really seems to care about (relationships with coaches/GM's, vision for the franchise) can't be discussed directly since he's under contract. So this will definitely be a "long-game" no matter what.
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I really don't understand...for years, I've heard the arguments on here that we need an elite QB to compete for a SB. Now, we have a shot at Watson, and people want to roll the dice on Tua? A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
     
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  35. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    True, but that depends on how high they are on Tua and what we have to give up to get Watson. If we can get him on a real good deal in exchange for Tua and some "change", I think you have to do it, even though I would prefer us to keep Tua and build through the draft. This is a really tough call to make, when you don't know what you have to give up.
     
  36. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    For me it comes down to the cost. If it’s 3 1sts and 3 2nds, I say hard pass. If we were one QB away, I’d be open to it but even with an elite QB, our offense needs several pieces to be able to compete with the top teams in the nfl.
     
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  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, i generally agree...I argued for years that we needed to build around Tannehill.

    But Tannehill has elite arm talent, and is extremely durable. I'm not one who gets jazzed up over Tua's supposed elite accuracy.
     
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  38. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    I liked Tannehill and was rooting for him, but it was time to move on in the end imo., and just for me I think Tua has a higher ceiling if he stays healthy and that is the only reason I would consider trading for Watson.
     
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  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, I agree, clearly Miami wasn't going to work for him.

    Just curious, how much did you watch Tua in college? Why do you think his ceiling is higher than Tannehill's? Honestly, that is the complete opposite perspective of mine. I think (thought) Tua's floor was higher than Tannehill's, but that his ceiling is not as high as Tannehill. Honestly, I watch pretty much every Bama game, and I was never impressed with Tua. I don't see an elite QB.
     
  40. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    I don’t follow college football really, but for me Tua had a better Rookie season then Tannehill. The main reason I think he‘s going to be better is, that he has way better pocket presence then Tannehill and more escapebility.
     
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