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Did this season hurt Tannehill?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bigballa2102, Nov 15, 2017.

  1. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    I was sitting here and the thought popped into my head, did this season going below average and pretty much a Sh!t show to this point hurt RT? Here is my reasoning, with the team playing like crap and say we implode and remove everyone? does that hurt RT chances of playing or succeeding next year? Does it finally make Miami take drastic measures and go after qb's and play makers in the draft and FA?

    Knowing my thoughts on RT being a below avg qb, just thinking did this hurt him more than playing this year, being that we suck and the hype and the potential we had in the off season finally make the front office make drastic changes and RT floats off into the abyss like every other Miami QB since Marino?
     
  2. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    Yep. He needs to be backup next year to Cohen or Jackson or someone. Enough project enough time and we need to move on from emo Gase.
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    On the contrary. I think Tannehill's stock went up based on the season so far because the last time we had a good offense was with him as QB (technically, Moore did well at the end of last year too.. but his stock fell after this year).
     
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  4. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    that's my point is its pretty much the same team, with 2 qbs who have thrived in gase system and both have failed. does it shed light on RT having a lucky year? and now his name is tarnished with the rest?
     
  5. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    Define good. My definition is not "not mediocre". We've not had a good offense this millenia.
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Well.. I think you guys by now know I like stats haha. And without cherry picking just games 6-13, Tannehill for the entire year had a 93.5 rating. The league-wide average last year was 87.6. So from a purely data driven perspective, Tannehill for the entire 2016 season is best described as slightly above average.

    Oh, and sample size is more than large enough for that to be reliable FOR THAT YEAR. Doesn't say anything about how likely he is to repeat that.
     
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  7. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    At his best with the most effort he's slightly above average. So maybe three weeks a year he's the 10th-12th best qb of 32? Yeah he needs to go for a better replacement. Who? Unknown.
     
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  8. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    you cant pick a 12 game year though you have to look at his whole career being that he has had 5 years, if you get what im saying if he played 16 games then maybe. all we do is look at cutlers 1 year and look where that gets us hahahah
     
  9. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    3 games is a stretch too, I seriously doubt with the $h!t of a running game he would have succeeded this year.
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Passer rating starts to become relatively reliable as a stat after about 150 passing attempts. You can see that here with passer ratings for every QB for every year (up to 2016) in the SB era (edit: actually I think it might be in the salary cap era):
    [​IMG]

    So Tannehill's 93.5 passer rating for 2016 is definitely reliable for that year. As I said before, it doesn't say anything about how that would translate to another year. But in 2016 he was slightly above average.
     
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  11. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    after 5 years we should be able to point at more than 12 games and 1 year IMO
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Without doing a game-by-game analysis (I'm trying to code something at work while responding haha!) what I can do is adjust all of Tannehill's yearly passer ratings to a reference year and then average them. So if you let the reference year be 2016, Tannehill's adjusted passer ratings come out to be

    2012: 79.55
    2013: 85.1
    2014: 93.33
    2015: 87.9
    2016: 93.5

    The weighted average of those (weight each by games started) is 87.65. League-wide average in 2016 (the reference year) was 87.6. LOL So maybe the best characterization of Tannehill across 5 years is that he is almost exactly an average QB if you use passer rating as your measure.
     
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  13. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    in all honesty cutler has an 86.7 rating right now, anyone can have a high rating throwing bubble screens shovel passes and slants. I don't go by that ratings with the dolphins because we call plays to make "stats" look good lol and we did that all year last yr that's why half of landrys yards where YAC yards lol
     
  14. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I don't understand this at all.

    This season is showing just how good Thill is.
     
  15. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    sounds like your fine with 1 more or 2 more years to realize hes not our long term guy, which is fine!!
     
  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    lol. What is the difference between this year and last if not our starting QB?
     
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  17. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    my point is he could have played this year and possibly had a case or chance to prove he should stay, now with this crappy yr does it affect him if we clean house etc. and move on.

    Make sense?
     
  18. danmarino

    danmarino Justice for Jacob Blake Club Member

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    You don't know what you're talking about. RT's YPA last year was 7.7
     
  19. danmarino

    danmarino Justice for Jacob Blake Club Member

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    Here are some other YAC stats. There are some pretty damn good QB's throwing to people with top 10 YAC stats.


    upload_2017-11-15_15-9-8.png
     
  20. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    and your point? YPA yard consist of yac yards so therefore an 8 yard bubble screen ran by landry makes his YPA go up lol

    landry was top 5 in YAC yards last year and he didn't catch anything beyond 10 yards possibly a hand full. that's my point Ratings look good when the wr does everything.
     
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  21. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    exactly rb's should lead in yac yards they get swing passes, you just proved my point landry was the highest wr lol

    Besides OBJ what guy on that list goes downfield?
     
  22. danmarino

    danmarino Justice for Jacob Blake Club Member

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    Sigh....
     
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  23. danmarino

    danmarino Justice for Jacob Blake Club Member

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    I didn't realize that Golden Tate, Edelman, Beckham, and Travis Kelce were RB's. And you don't understand %'s huh? You should do the math before you post anything else.
     
  24. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    same ol dan trying to act like you know football more than anyone, I do understand % but your right you know more than everyone and your arguments are correct because you pay for this site, RT was 50% air yards last year and 3.8 air yards per attempt but ya he was slingin it all over the yard, get real dude!!!
     
  25. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    No it doesn't.

    Again....he played last year with the same offense, and we became the hottest team in the league. This year without him and...again this is important....the same offense.....is horrible.

    There is no reason to think the offense's problems this year are related to anything other than Thill not being here.
     
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  26. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, I'm not getting the jump in logic here. The only thing this year SHOULD prove to anyone, is that we have been handcuffing Tannehill to a roster that just doesn't perform at a high level. On paper they look good to great, but potential never translates to the field. Tannehill, has bee putting in above avg QB play while surrounded with the very team so many people are ready to give up on. Imagine if he was surrounded with talent that could make any QB look good... Or just give him good players that consistently perform around him on offense. He has NEVER been what was holding this team back.

    I've said it before, if the organization decides to move on from Tannehill, then I'm fine with that decision. It sucks cause I don't believe we really got to see what he can do, but sometimes a change is good for both sides.
     
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  27. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    well how many years have to go by before you get a feel for a qb he got 5 years? and goff and wents took bigger strides in less than 2 years with really less than RT did in 5. Wentz now has ajayi and alshon Jeffrey, goff has Watkins an gurley, we have landry DP and stills. Im just merely saying not based on RT play but the base that this season has been so awful and if they decide to go away from everyone and start a change that could hurt RT, say he played this year and excelled and Miami looked good and so did RT then his stock would be high, but now that Miami's name is really in the dumps and if we move on from him who do you think would pay him anything near what he's getting right now? that's my logic.
     
  28. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I'm gonna take a different tack here:

    I think it's very likely this season helped Tannehill in the long term. Ryan started from day one, he never had to compete for the job. He never developed the way QBs used to..learning from the sidelines.

    Not only has he learned a lot from the sidelines this year, he's gotten a taste of having to watch someone else take the helm of HIS TEAM.

    I think Ryan has a Pro Bowl caliber season next year...
     
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  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    The problem is you haven't seen enough, so you cannot make a determination.

    Some of us have seen enough. He is the real deal. This year should prove that beyond a shadow of a doubt.
     
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  30. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Dafuq?

    Pay attention.

    You are a troll. You come here to ***** and do nothing else. You will be banned soon. Mark that down.
     
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  31. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I guess my point is you can't really have it both ways. You can't say Tannehill should have shown us more, then want all of the team around him gone cause they are trash. Those two things are pretty connected. Believe me I get the frustration. It never should have taken this long to get an average line for him to play behind. What we know from 5 years is simply this, behind a below average Pass protecting offensive line Ryan is sligthly above average. Does that sliding scale move up when he has a better offensive line? I don't know, I just really really really want to know before we get rid of him.


    Honestly, the 1st team that Ryan could go to that comes to mind is NE. Tannehill has already shown enough here, that would make him deadly in their offense. I wish I was kidding, but this seems like the exact type of move they would make. Brady can't play forever, and man would it hurt if we give them the next QB that lets them keep abusing us. Even if he doesn't go there, he will make pretty good money somewhere, most likely sign a prove it contract that only gives him 16 or 17 million year one, but 2 years in I guarantee he will be back into the low 20s again. Hell, he might even weigh his options and take less money to go somewhere that can actually protect him with a decent line.
     
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  32. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I am not a Tanny guy, so if he get's released I have few qualms as long as we are actively finding a replacement. I agree with your last paragraph though - he most likely will need a prove it type deal. Not only because of talent questions, but also the injury question. How well has that knee actually healed now with surgery, will it hold up a whole season.

    As for decent lines ... there really are not that many out there. OL is a wasteland in the NFL, in large part because college doesn't develop NFL ready OL like they used to. The best OL out there typically are protecting a good signal caller already.
     
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  33. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I completely agree on the O-line, but when we are below the average ranking, AND the average o-line is worse then it use to be... well that's just a whole bunch of crappy line play...
     
  34. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    This is actually completely factually incorrect. NFL1000 broke down screen pass attempts for every NFL quarterback last season.

    Ryan Tannehill averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt (389 attempts for 2,995 yards)
    Ryan Tannehill averaged 4.53 yards per screen pass (53 screens for 240 yards)

    If you take screen passes out of the equation, Tannehill averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt. In 2016, those screen passes actually lowered his YPA by a full half yard.

    To put it bluntly, you are not only wrong, but your argument is completely and utterly at odds with the facts. It is actually flat out impossible to be any more wrong than you are on this particular subject.
     
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  35. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Also, the argument that Goff & Wentz have improved is also helped that both have better Olines this year, which allows them time to use the weapons - Miami, not so much
     
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  36. rackhound

    rackhound Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree with this completely. He was having his best year and got better as the season progressed and he had more time to learn the Gases offense. I think in his situation you can look at last year more than other years because it was with a different coach and system. Other years he was playing for Philban who i think hurt him with what he made him do, and did not allow him to do. This is the same team with almost the same exact players looking like complete garbage %75 percent of the time with the QB being almost the only change.
     
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  37. danmarino

    danmarino Justice for Jacob Blake Club Member

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    Thanks for explaining this to him. I replied to him with a "sigh" because it seems every time I explain something to some people here I'm labeled as a "know it all". lol
     
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  38. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    To further that lesson.

    The Top 10 QBs in YPA last year who also had a player in Top 10 in YAC:

    Thill
    Brady
    Wilson
    Brees

    Other QBs that had a Top 10 YAC getter:
    Big Rape
    Smith
    Palmer
    Stafford
    Eli
    Carr

    So yeah...outside of Rodgers all of the best QBs in the league had Top 10 YAC guys.
     
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  39. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    oh so you have seen more than I have? good judge of opinion you have. When he's let go in 2 years and we squander 2 MORE YEARS "WAITING" for him to be the future the future will be the present. Your opinion is just that an opinion as well as mine, just proves more of who and what you are by saying you seen/know more than me.
     
  40. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think we should get rid of the team, I want the play caller and coaches gone, I think we have a pretty good team, but to make a splash in the draft or FA you have to let some guys go its just inevitable and think we are going to lose landry which sucks

    I guarantee you RT is nowhere near Belicheats radar, I just thinking drafting a qb is the right move along with o-line help and if RT does pan out then we have trade bait of a backup. Like I said I have hoped I am wrong about RT but 5 years is plenty enough time and I just don't see it.
     
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