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Dolphins Draft Strategy - They Will Move Up... for a QB

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Jan 6, 2020.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Here's where I think things are going to end up....

    IF the Dolphins want a top-rated college QB, either Burrow or Tua, then they WILL move up.
    Again, I'm going to assume they definitely want either one. IF so, then they will attempt to trade up to #1. If the Bengals agree (MOAR PICKS) then they take Burrow. If the Bengals don't then they try for #2 with Redskins. And so on and so forth until either both QB's are gone or they get their man.

    Why? IF they want one they need to ensure that no other team leapfrogs them in the draft - and so they will try to trade with everyone above them in order to lock down their QB.

    This being the case, unless there's some spite involved, there's a very, very good chance that Miami get the trade they want because no other franchise can match the draft capital they hold. And they will pay the price.

    So unless some horrible news comes out about Tua, get ready for a trade up in the draft. It's coming.
     
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  2. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'd rather stay at #5 than trade up honestly.

    If we are wasting picks to trade up, we should have lost more games like our fan base wanted to begin with.

    We made our bed, let's not get LESS out of it by trading picks to move up a couple slots unless the loss is absolutely minimal.

    I do believe Tua will be there at #5 if we want him though.

    It also helps that while I'm not against either, I'm not sold either Burrow or Tua is good enough to trade up for.
     
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  3. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    The entire point of getting so much capital was to allow us to maneuver regardless of wins, not necessarily to draft 14 rookies.

    I 100% agree with Galant, we will need to move up to #3. Bengals will need to be blown away by a record offer unless Burrow does something crazy like pull an Eli - unlikely. Skins might be more amenable to moving, but doubt they will want to give up the rights to Young. That leaves the Lions at 3, who likely WILL want to trade down unless Young falls into their laps. Their biggest needs are guys like Okudah or Brown, but taking a DT or CB at 3 isn't great value. Moving down to 5 and picking up another first rounder though? Not so bad. The only way we stay at 5 is if we have equal grades on someone like Love or Herbert or if Tua's medical progression falls off track.
     
  4. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    You either try to go to #1 and get Burrow or you draft Love. I do not in any way shape or form trust that Tua will be a guy that stays healthy. I think that Love may be the guy. NOT Herbert!
     
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  5. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    A LOT depends on how Tua's evaluations go from here on out, but assuming nothing goes drastically wrong then I think the Dolphins will pull the trigger IF they can't get Burrow or prefer Tua's game. Dolphins will be in the position they were with Brees - a top QB with an injury... they don't make the same decision twice.
     
  6. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Unless Miami wants to sell the farm for Burrow, there’s no need to move up for Tua. He’s going to be there.

    Cincinnati will take Burrow
    Washington drafted Haskins 15th overall last year
    Detroit is still stuck on the Stafford wagon
    The Giants just drafted Jones 6th overall

    But going back to Detroit, that would be the only team that would possibly draft him. They are carrying 3 QBs on their roster as it is but the other 2 are no names

    If Miami wants Tua, I’d roll the dice and not trade
     
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  7. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Well, Tua declared for the draft, no surprise, so we will see what happens now. Tua has great skill but the last great QB I remember coming out of college with injury problems is Sam Bradford and that did NOT work out well. I'd be extremely careful about this.
     
  8. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    It's obvious Tua was told he is going in the top 10. Patricia is a defense guy he is going to take Okudah.

    Get Tua at 5! You can all slobber over Fitzpatrick again for another year and Tua will be healthy for 2021.
     
  9. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    But you can't rule out other teams trying to leapfrog Miami for Tua. I don't think Miami take that chance. They will try to trade up with anyone above them.
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    From what I've read, interest in Tua so far comes down to Miami and Miami only. That doesn't mean other teams aren't doing their homework on him and/or wouldn't take him in the teens or 20's, but I'd be SHOCKED to see any team spend multiple picks to move up and take a QB who may never play an NFL down. That would be a career-ending move for a GM if Tua doesn't end up playing well.

    I think the only question is whether we take him at #5 or #18.

    I would be happy trading up to #1 overall for Burrow regardless of the cost...but I could also make the same case for Lawrence next year as well. So it is possible that we don't draft anyone, try to unload a few of our 1st round picks for selections next season, then make the same type of move for Lawrence.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2020
  11. phinswolverinesrockets

    phinswolverinesrockets If he dies, he dies

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    It would be stupid to trade up. You should have tanked properly if you know you wanted a top 3 pick. You better hope he falls to #5 if that is who you want. Live with the consequences.

    Personally, none of the QBs in this draft give me that Lamar Jackson feel. I've seen none of them carry garbage college football programs like a Louisville. All the top QB prospects this year were surrounded by tons of talent. Tua does have some dog in him, though. I liked how he played that last game injured. I don't feel he's a game changer though.

    Knowing this front office, they'll probably draft a DB or DT. Like that will make a difference, lol.
     
  12. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    If the trade makes sense for Burrow, I say pull the trigger.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Trading up one spot to #4 actually has merit. We could do that with a 4th, and at worst a 3rd if a bidding war starts. The reason is because trading up to #3 is truly prohibitive for other teams if you go by draft pick value charts:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm

    Even if those charts aren't totally accurate, the point remains that the jump to #3 is generally much harder than to #4, especially for the Chargers who pick right after us and might pick a QB since Rivers is on his last legs. They'd have to give up their 2nd (or a future 1st) and a good deal more if a bidding war starts just to get to #3, not to mention the cost is much higher for QB needy teams down the list.

    So as a GM I might try trading up one spot to #4 if a 4th rounder suffices. I still think Tua will fall to 5, but might as well be safe(r).
     
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  14. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    The important factor in this isn't knowing whether or not other teams are interested in Tua or Burrow -- it would be helpful but I've no idea just how much GM's are or can be aware what others are thinking,so I'll assume that Grier can't be certain -- it's whether the Dolphins want to be sure they can get their man. The only way to be CERTAIN of getting the guy you want is picking before anyone else and not allowing anyone else to leapfrog you. How can Grier be certain that no-one else will jump before #5 and take Tua or Burrow? He can't be certain, so either he gambles on a player he wants at #5 being there, or he makes the necessary moves to just acquire him and be certain of it.

    We can talk all we want about what we think people want and where a given player might be picked but the draft produces surprises every single year. So, does Grier want to be surprised or does he want to get the player he wants? I think the latter, I think that's the point of this year and all the trades. He has himself said that this has been done so that they can be confident of getting anyone they want. There are obviously limitations to that, but the point is, they aren't going to be afraid to pay a high price to get the guys they want. They've got the capital and flexibility to do it. So they WILL do it.

    As for the idea that the Dolphins should have lost more games in 2019 if they wanted to go higher... have you been paying attention to what Grier and Flores have been saying all year? This is not, and has not been, a one man tank show. Flores has intended to win from the beginning, and Grier and Ross knew that, so they aimed to be as flexible with trades as possible to get as much ammo as they can, gutting bad contracts, or older players, to rebuild the roster while Flores rebuilds the team in terms of strategy, ethos, discipline etc. All of that points to the Dolphins getting all this capital precisely so that they can move up from a lower spot to a higher one. If you don't see that then I don't think anyone show it to you. But that's reality.
     
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  15. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    If they think Tua is a franchise QB and a level above the other talents (Love, Herbert, Eason, Hurts, etc) and they think Tua is their guy, their target ... they will make a trade unless they know none of the teams ahead are moving.

    Lots of people projecting their own feelings here, but that's not really meaningful when discussing what Grier will do.
     
  16. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Trading up would enrage me. I would be so angry that I might have to step away from football for a while.

    My number one preference is to trade down. If they take a QB at 5, then I'll have to live with it.
     
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  17. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I wouldn't trade up for Tua. The risk is too great. Even if he plays next season, which isn't guaranteed, that hip is just a huge huge risk to be reinjured. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe he never gets hurt again, but if I were the GM I wouldn't be willing to trade more than maybe an extra 2nd or 3rd to move up a single spot, at the very most.
    Now Burrow...I'd trade up for him. I think he's the real deal.
     
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  18. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    That sounds unhealthy frankly.

    QB is THE most crucial position on the field. This is the best position we have had to draft a high level prospect in awhile, we need to take it. Not a time to get cute and dance around. Identify your guy - whomever it may be - and get him. It's why we have the warchest we do
     
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  19. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    What medical expertise are you basing this on? Most medical experts familiar with the situation that I am seeing note the possibility of long-term issues (namely arthritis) but not any great risk of reinjury or other problems.
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think the part you're missing is that the team needs a safety, a CB, a LB, a DB, at least two DE's, two tackles, at least one guard, possibly a center, two RB's, a WR, a blocking TE AND a QB. Free agency is certainly an option but the reason we stockpiled those picks was to have flexibility...including (but definitely not limited to) moving up in the draft.

    I'm not saying we won't move up. I'm not saying it's not a viable option if there's someone we're in love with. But it is certainly not the only route to a successful draft and it could end up hurting more than helping.
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here's my only problem with that- moving up to #4 only makes sense if the team picking #4 (Giants) will likely take the same player we'd want at #5. If that's the case, then there's no way they'd take a 4th rounder as compensation for the top person on their boards. And if that's not the case, then there's no reason for Miami to give away a 4th rounder (or higher) for nothing since they could have the same exact player at #5.

    Now, your case makes sense if another team is suddenly pushing hard for the #4 pick (likely signaling they want Tua), but we may not be privy to that information until after the fact. So I just don't see the point unless you know for a fact "team x" is trying to move into #4 specifically for Tua. To me, that team would be more sly trading us for the #5 pick since they'd be in direct contact and could claim they're trying to grab whoever would go #6...one of the beefy tackles or stud DE's maybe.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2020
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  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Wait.. your first paragraph doesn't make sense. If the team at #4 (Giants) is NOT taking a QB, then they'd have no issue trading picks with us, and yes they'd probably do that for a small amount of draft capital because from their perspective it doesn't change the likelihood of drafting who they'd want to draft at #4 (he'll be there at #5).

    And my case makes sense as a preventive measure for any team that MIGHT try to leapfrog us. I'm just saying that leapfrogging to #3 entails a much higher cost, but not necessarily to #4, so it makes sense for us to move up to #4 as soon as possible spending little for it (a 4th).

    Hope the logic is clearer now.
     
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  23. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Better step away now.

    Miami did not dump everything and make all those trades to not get their quarterback
     
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  24. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Listening to Detroit Sports Radio post-Tua and there is an early consensus forming that the Lions and Phins would be a good trade partner, most likely us getting the 3rd overall in exchange for #5 and either the Texans first rounder (28ish) or our top second rounder. Some folks clamoring for 18, but that doesn't work on strict trade value and is not likely.
     
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  25. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    What about that specific injury have you heard means its more likely to be reinjured?
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I'd be all for that if it was our 2nd. I think offering one of our firsts is too much. It's not like it's clear there's a bidding war here. But if there is a bidding war I could see that. Only the top 2 teams will likely not trade (Cinci wants Burrow and Washington wants Young) so if we get to #3 we've essentially guaranteed Tua (no one else we'd trade up for).
     
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  27. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would consider that a win. The Pittsburgh pick would be a little "bleh" for me.
     
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  28. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    Understood but I'm aware of that and not ignoring it. The obvious truth is the Dolphins can't fix all their holes in or even two off-seasons. Now, that being the case, as they go they're going to want to fill out the roster the right way. To me, that's involves three things (if you're building for long terms success):

    1 - NFL rosters are always in flux. So you need to be always looking for talent, young talent, cheap talent, and to develop and maximise talent.

    2 - In many positions you can do more with less - good coaching, discipline and cohesion can achieve better results than a mishmash of stars.

    3 - Some elite talent is needed in key positions.

    I think Flores has exhibited these values, and Grier has paid lip-service to them, and looking at what they've managed to achieve this year with a depleted, injured, and young roster (lots of us thought we could be looking at maybe one or two wins) it's evidence that teams can over-achieve when brought together. One season isn't a guarantee of anything, but it's also not nothing. Hopefully it's a sign of good things to come and movement in the right direction.

    Assuming this is the case, then in approaching the draft I don't think the Dolphins approach will be to take a worse or 'average' QB in the hopes of getting a slightly better CB or OL or LB. If there's one position on the team where you don't want a rotation of players it's the QB spot. If there's one position where you can find elite talent, it's the QB spot. If you have the chance to lock up a talented QB who is coach-able and who can both perform at a high level and provide long-term stability as he masters and leads the offence then you take it, even if it means acquiring a lesser player, or players, at other positions. You definitely want to lock that position down if you can do so.

    Now, maybe the Dolphins don't see that guy in the draft. Fine. Then you take whomever you're most interested in wherever and focus on other positions. But if you do see that guy, then you don't miss out on him so you can spend more on someone else, you go get him.

    Maybe the Dolphins don't rate Tua, or Burrow, but my guess is that when draft day comes they're going to get their big bag of draft cash and go knocking on every single team door ahead of them. I think they try the Bengals, and if the door gets closed, they go down to the next team etc. They're going to try to get every player they're interested in, and that's going to mean they try to trade up this draft. 100%. Unless they hate Burrow and/or Tua. Maybe other teams aren't interested, but Grier isn't going to let someone else leapfrog the team to take a player they want. They're going to get exactly the player they want.
     
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  29. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    All I know is I'll be incredibly disappointed if we trade picks to get a QB we could have gotten through proper strategy without losing picks.
     
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  30. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    But that's something you'll likely never know. It's impossible to tell what would have happened if things were different, especially in the Draft where you can't ever be certain GM's are telling the truth, before or after.
     
  31. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    You and me, both. Either Tua at #5, or Love later on. I am guessing Love will climb up the draft boards, but I am hopeful we could get him later on in the 1st. (crossing my fingers)
     
  32. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I saw a mock that had us taking Love at #5 on CBS.

    I think hes a massive reach there, but if we took him at #18 I'd probably feel better about it.

    I'm fine with anyone we take because I have to give them a chance but I'd hate if we have to lose capital to do so.

    If we do trade up, I really hope they have the analysis right because a miss will be costly.
     
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  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Forget every QB in this draft. Wipe them from your mind for a second.

    If there was guy coming out, let's call him John Quaterback, you felt was likely to be an all pro great QB, what would you give up for him? Like you think he'll be in the upper echelon with Rodgers and Brees and Wilson, for example. How much would you give?
     
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  34. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    He is only a reach now at the start of the process. Once the process begins, we invariably see QB's start to rise. It would not be a shock to see both Love and Herbert go in the top 10 aside from Tua and Burrow when it's all said and done. And here is the thing, if they believe Love has franchise potential, then they have to take him 5th. Have to. 18th is a fan pipe dream.

    If by "proper strategy" you mean "forcing Flores to lose games to go 1-15/0-16" that just was never a realistic proposition. It's frankly an almost absurd thought to even entertain. Nor was it ever even remotely an intention. The intention was to amass draft resources to ensure flexibility to get a top QB.
     
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  35. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    To answer the question, a lot but not enough to bankrupt my future. He wont be the last talented QB to come out and I can probably plan to naturally acquire one without giving up that much capital.

    If I KNEW obviously the answer is a lot more. I think chasing too hadd after what we feel is a good way to invite failure though.

    Now speaking on Tua

    I think the issue is that most of us dont feel that strongly about Tua.

    If he is there at #5 I'd take him probably depending on how other QB grade out on my board, but I dont feel strongly enough about him that I'd personally trade up to get him if I had that power.
     
  36. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    It would be more intelligent to go 1-15 than trade resources you gave up talent for in my opinion. I dont think its absurd at all. Fitzpatrick played well and I love him, but signing him here is something we could very well end up regretting as we toil in mediocrity.
     
  37. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    WADR, I was looking for a more specific answer. "a lot but not enough to bankrupt my future" doesn't;t really tell me what your thought process is as that is open to interpretation.
     
  38. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Probably #5, #18 and a future 3rd or 4th.

    Moving more sounds like a good way to get myself fired if I miss, which is likely since even most well thought of college QB fail.

    I like Burrow more than Tua and I wouldnt even move more than that to get to #1 honestly. The risk isnt worth the resources.

    I will say maybe for the team the risk may be worth it, but as a GM trying to keep my job I dont think so.
     
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  39. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    That is possible, the Chargers and the Panthers are 2 teams that are in need of a QB, but what do they have that they’re willing to trade? I truthfully don’t know.

    I’m sticking with what I’ve been saying, stay at 5 and go from there. Will we draft a quarterback? Probably so but I’d rather see the trenches shored up to build on what we have. I still believe we haven’t seen the last of Rosen. This was only his 2nd year and I just think Flores likes this kid. Could be wrong but we’ll see
     
  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Wasn't Bo Jackson's career cut short cause he dislocated his hip? I know medicine has improved since then, but still...
     
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