Dolphins only a 3.5/4 point favorite/Trap game?

It's on their field, which gives them an automatic 3 points, so we're considered over a touchdown better than them. Frankly, given that we have not been scoring much lately, I think it's about right.
Trap game? Don't know, that depends on how good a coach Sparano is.

"Rick 1966 wrote:

It's on their field, which gives them an automatic 3 points, so we're considered over a touchdown better than them. Frankly, given that we have not been scoring much lately, I think it's about right.
Trap game? Don't know, that depends on how good a coach Sparano is.

Yeah the way the Offense has been playing how can we be more than a 4 point fav ?

I wouldn't call it a trap game. The public I think has finally caught on to Vegas. Vegas has been killing them in that regard whenever we have to cover more than a FG. Off the top of my head: Oakland, St. Louis, Seattle, and San Fran where we were favored by more than 3(and at least one of them by double digits), were favored by the public, and failed to cover.

Also, people are impulse bettors. The Chiefs nearly beat the (still overrated) Bolts and we failed to cover once again against the 49ers, so the line isn't suspicious at all, imo.

"steveincolorado wrote:

I was looking at several sites and looking at the spread for the Dolphins/Chiefs game. We're only a 3.5/4 points this weekend. We all are looking forward to week 17, but we still need to take care of the Chiefs this weekend first.

I want this to be Jest week also, but we gotta win in KC this weekend. I just hope that the players are focused on KC, unlike us who are all looking at the Jest game

IMO its totally warranted, we havent shown, in any recent game, that we can put a team away.. We were a 6 point favorite against SF I believe. We didnt cover that spread.. We didnt cover Seattle, Oakland, Rams, and these were 2 win teams.. Miami is a scrappy team, scrappy teams dont cover spreads, they win, and win ugly, and annoy teams they will be playing in the future in the process because these teams think they can beat us, and they may be able to, but they eventually dont... because we're scrappy

What I'm saying is that KC can beat us in a minute if we're not careful. Nobody on here is talking about KC, everybody is talking about the Jest game in 2 weeks.

Everybody is taking this game in KC for granted, I just hope that the players don't. We all know and understand what wk 17 means to us, but we got to take care of wk 16 first.

Lets just not overlook KC.

"steveincolorado wrote:

What I'm saying is that KC can beat us in a minute if we're not careful. Nobody on here is talking about KC, everybody is talking about the Jest game in 2 weeks.

Everybody is taking this game in KC for granted, I just hope that the players don't. We all know and understand what wk 17 means to us, but we got to take care of wk 16 first.

Lets just not overlook KC.

Which is always easier said than done. It only takes a couple of players to take the week off to hurt also.

One other aspect to consider is this: The Chiefs announced that Carl Peterson will be resigning at the end of the season. So with a new GM, the entire staff realizes that their jobs are in jeopardy. They may have nothing to play for as far as the playoffs go, but the Chiefs will have every reason to come prepared to play for this one. For them it's an audition for whoever the new GM is going to be.

"steveincolorado wrote:

What I'm saying is that KC can beat us in a minute if we're not careful. Nobody on here is talking about KC, everybody is talking about the Jest game in 2 weeks.

Everybody is taking this game in KC for granted, I just hope that the players don't. We all know and understand what wk 17 means to us, but we got to take care of wk 16 first.

Lets just not overlook KC.

Who's "everybody?" Everybody on this board? Everybody on the radio?
Because I can just about guarantee that EVERYBODY in the Dolphins' coaching staff is talking about the Chiefs...we can only hope that EVERYBODY on the Dolphins' players is talking about the Chiefs too.
What we talk about here makes no difference at all to the outcome of the game.

Pennington said it best. "there is no win 11 without a win 10"

a game at arrowhead...is NEVER an easy game....we better bust our ass and prepare for this....

if we lose to the Chiefs all of our playoff hopes and dreams are virtually dead, I don't see this as a trap game at all.

"Rocky Raccoon wrote:

if we lose to the Chiefs all of our playoff hopes and dreams are virtually dead, I don't see this as a trap game at all.

if we lose to the chiefs im going swallow a gallon of paint and shove a stick of C-4 in my mouth and blow myself to high hell......

(nah ill cry though.....)

could be because we are horrible in covering spreads... don't get me wrong we win the games but its always close.

"steveincolorado wrote:

What I'm saying is that KC can beat us in a minute if we're not careful. Nobody on here is talking about KC, everybody is talking about the Jest game in 2 weeks.

Everybody is taking this game in KC for granted, I just hope that the players don't. We all know and understand what wk 17 means to us, but we got to take care of wk 16 first.

Lets just not overlook KC.

I totally agree with this too.. out of al the teams i mentioned, to this point, KC will be the toughest team we will play and has the best QB out of the three I have mentioned. We could easily lose this game in arrowhead

"n9necount wrote:

Which is always easier said than done. It only takes a couple of players to take the week off to hurt also.

One other aspect to consider is this: The Chiefs announced that Carl Peterson will be resigning at the end of the season. So with a new GM, the entire staff realizes that their jobs are in jeopardy. They may have nothing to play for as far as the playoffs go, but the Chiefs will have every reason to come prepared to play for this one. For them it's an audition for whoever the new GM is going to be.

No way the players take it for granted. If they lose this game, they're done. Finished. No playoffs. It's do or die. Backs against the wall.

"Jt0323 wrote:

could be because we are horrible in covering spreads... don't get me wrong we win the games but its always close.

we covered against the 9ers :up:

"SickFinFan33 wrote:

we covered against the 9ers :up:

werent we 5.5-6 point fav's?

"SickFinFan33 wrote:

we covered against the 9ers :up:

Actually most of the bets were on -5, -5.5, and -6 where it opened. Towards the end of the week some got it in on -5 for the push and a few lucky ones on -4.5 But for the most part, the public got killed on that game because they backed us.

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i thought i saw us at 4.....but i guess not

This game does worry me a bit. A lot of the Chiefs games in which they lost, was only by a few points and sometimes they had a lead and would lose by those couple of points or so right near the end of the game. I would occasionally see their highlights and almost feel bad for Herm. Streaks and trends worry me because they're bound to be broken. A play or two go a different way and their record could be much better. I just hope we're not the ones to break their streak. You know, the law of averages thing.

"..the law of averages says...I will survive."(from one of the many drummers of Spinal Tap) :D

Also, Thigpen has been playing pretty good and teams that throw the ball well have a tendency to give us trouble. Our secondary and pass rush need to have a big day. IMO. On the other hand, I think if we take care of our business, don't overlook them and just play smart football, we can kick their butts. =D

A Mid December game in KC could see us playing in a snow storm, or 30 mph winds or what have you, that will level the playing field, add in we have not been scoring very much, and the spread makes sense.

Last Game, throwing to the Te's against overly aggressive ILB and poor safeties made sense, this week though, if the weather is bad, Ronnie and Ricky and Cobbs will have to step up for us, this could be an old fashioned low scoring December game for us...lots of smash mouth football.

"SickFinFan33 wrote:

i thought i saw us at 4.....but i guess not

You might have, not saying you didn't. Every book is different and it all depends on how the money came in for them. Believe it or not, even Vegas has ceilings on risk factors per game. If they don't feel comfortable with say one side in a lopsided 80/20 action, then they will move the lines to adjust the risk. So if the book you saw got lopsided SF action they could have balanced with -4 even if they felt Miami was the right side. But either way, the majority of Miami backers got killed this week, as they have been almost every week when we're favorites :)

Edit: Or a move the other way to get more money on a side they want more action on. That's all line moves are actually, not the 50/50 myth, getting a certain % of the public's money on a side they feel is the wrong side, and a calculated risk adjustment.

Arrowhead is an extremely tough place to play. Period.

KC is playing better lately even though they had a tough loss. I would be careful with this one.

"n9necount wrote:

I wouldn't call it a trap game. The public I think has finally caught on to Vegas. Vegas has been killing them in that regard whenever we have to cover more than a FG. Off the top of my head: Oakland, St. Louis, Seattle, and San Fran where we were favored by more than 3(and at least one of them by double digits), were favored by the public, and failed to cover.

Also, people are impulse bettors. The Chiefs nearly beat the (still overrated) Bolts and we failed to cover once again against the 49ers, so the line isn't suspicious at all, imo.

This time we'll probably put up 40 just because we've lulled everyone to sleep with our not so prolific offense. NOW, we finally explode on someone. YA THINK?

"SCall13 wrote:

This time we'll probably put up 40 just because we've lulled everyone to sleep with our not so prolific offense. NOW, we finally explode on someone. YA THINK?

Hey could be! I'd like to just kick back and drink a few Coronas while sitting on a 20pt lead at halftime for once. These nail biter games are seriously starting to take a toll. We Dolphin fans are out of shape a bit in that regard, you know, in playing so many meaningful and close games in 1 season :)

But interestingly enough, the public(about 85%) is once again backing us.