http://i.imgur.com/d1V6lAL.jpg Panters open up at the favorite at 7/1, Patriots 2nd at 8/1. Denver is 15/1 and Jets are 30/1 Miami is 25 to 1 to win AFC Championship http://i.imgur.com/6Z0lonw.jpg Personally, I like Giants sitting at 50 to 1 in that Division.
Well.. it's more realistic than that Harvard study from last year. Anyone remember this? http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/07/a-way-too-early-prediction-of-the-nfl-season/ Dolphins predicted to be the best AFC team lol. They also got Carolina, Arizona, Vikings and Redskins all totally wrong. I think all-in-all it's no better than average fan opinion. Anyway, it does show what can go wrong when you just consider the "approximate value" of just the elite players without considering the entire team. For example, they only looked at the value of the top 2 OL, and the top 4 of the defensive front 7, instead of all players. The other (big) problem is with the approximate value stat itself, but that's another story. I do think in general Vegas is best, though odds this early on are a bit premature.
