Dolphins Over/Under from ESPN
29 replies
PS17New MemberOPhttp://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/tag/_/name/over-under-62910
Using 2010 statistical projections from ESPN.com's fantasy analysts, Football Outsiders managing editor Bill Barnwell and I pick over or under for three players from each AFC East team.
Next in the series are the Miami Dolphins.
Quarterback Chad Henne, 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions
Barnwell's take: UNDER and OVER. I certainly think adding Brandon Marshall gives Henne a devastating weapon in the red zone. Marshall had seven red-zone touchdowns for the Denver Broncos last year. Marshall's going to be the Dolphins' only real red-zone threat, though, and that should mitigate his impact on those fade patterns. I also think about the strengths of the Dolphins team and their scheme under Tony Sparano. They had the best line of any team in football last year in short-yardage situations, and I know Sparano would prefer to run the ball in short yardage than pass it around.
My take: OVER and OVER. I'm tempted to go under on touchdowns, but I can see the Dolphins opening up their offense not only because of Marshall's presence, but also because their backfield has a lot of question marks. Ronnie Brown has trouble staying healthy, and Ricky Williams is 33. Henne's natural development should give Sparano and offensive coordinator Dan Henning more confidence to pass. For that same reason, Henne's interception projection looks low to me. He wasn't a prolific thrower last year (17th in attempts per game), yet tied for 11th in interceptions thrown with 14.
Running back Ricky Williams, 878 rushing yards
Barnwell's take: OVER. The Dolphins are going to be able to run the ball effectively; that's no surprise. When people were looking at this team last year and projecting their numbers, I think a lot of folks were projecting Chad Pennington and Brown for full seasons without a second thought, and that's absurd. That they made it through a full season in 2008 was a miracle, not something that was likely to recur. Brown has missed time in virtually every one of his pro seasons, and Williams has been sturdy over the past two seasons. If Williams stays healthy, then he beats that total.
My take: UNDER. I hate to lower expectations for my meditation buddy, but his 2009 was off-the-charts unusual. I believe Williams can have another big season. But overs and unders are about betting on an outcome, and I think too many factors can trip him up. Williams' reps will go down if a) he starts to play like he's 33 years old, b) he suffers an injury, c) Brown can stay on the field, d) the Dolphins turn into more of a passing team.
Receiver Brandon Marshall, 104 receptions
Barnwell's take: UNDER. Any time I get asked to project someone to hit such a high total, I almost always take the under. Too many things have to go right for a player to hit such a high total: He must stay healthy; the players around him need to be effective; he needs to duck the occasional disappointing season that even the greats have. Based on his historical catch rate, Marshall will need to get about 165 targets or so to hit that total. I can't see him getting that many chances; Davone Bess got 114 last year, and he's the only wideout under Sparano to even hit 100. The Fins run the ball too frequently for Marshall to get the chances he needs to hit 104.
My take: UNDER. I believe Marshall will have a fantastic season, but for the same reasons as Bill listed, I don't see him catching 104 passes. Nothing indicates the Dolphins will have 1984 flashbacks and start slinging the ball all over the place. Football operations boss Bill Parcells never has believed in it. The Dolphins' offensive personnel was assembled to run. That's not to say they won't air it out more this year. I predict they will. But for Marshall to record 104 receptions, the Dolphins would have to change their identity completely. A more reasonable total for me is about 90 receptions for Marshall.
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This is from Tim Graham's blog. The over/under for the rest of the AFC East teams is in the above link.
PS17New MemberMy takes:
Quarterback Chad Henne, 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions
I say OVER and OVER. Dolphins start to open up the offense and with that comes more TDs and more INTs.
Running back Ricky Williams, 878 rushing yards
OVER. Ronnie will get injured. Ricky is still more than effective.
Receiver Brandon Marshall, 104 receptions
UNDER. Miami will open up the passing game more, but they are still a run first team. 104 receptions is a LOT for any receiver, but I simply don't think it's possible on this Dolphins' team this year.
jdang307subscriberIf Brandon doesn't get 100+ receptions I hope he ups his YPC. Less than 1000 yards for what we gave up isn't going to be pretty.
padre31luxury_boxWell, why not one done by Dolfans?
-Cameron Wake sacks...10...over or under?
-Sean Smith Interceptions...3..over or under?
-Ronnie Brown..1,000 yds, over or under?
-Phillip Merling suspension..1 game...over or under?
54Finsforum_veteranWell, why not one done by Dolfans?
-Cameron Wake sacks...10...over or under? over
-Sean Smith Interceptions...3..over or under? over
-Ronnie Brown..1,000 yds, over or under? over
-Phillip Merling suspension..1 game...over or under? o-:pity:
:lol:
padre31luxury_boxNow here are some Over/Unders:
Pat White..100 yds rushing or passing..over under?
Pat Turner..10 catches..over or under?
Jake Grove games missed..4 over or under?
pennphinfanforum_veteran-Cameron Wake sacks...10...over or under? under
-Sean Smith Interceptions...3..over or under? push
-Ronnie Brown..1,000 yds, over or under? over slightly (less than 1100)
-Phillip Merling suspension..1 game...over or under? eh, probably over
Pat White..100 yds rushing or passing..over under? combined or individually? either way over most likely, even if it takes a ton of attempts
Pat Turner..10 catches..over or under? under
Jake Grove games missed..4 over or under? over
VanDolPhansubscriberI'll take around 80-90 catches from Brandon if it means upping his YPC by a couple yards. Plus this team is built to run...so he will get less chances anyways. The point is to maximize those chances.
PSGforum_veteran-Cameron Wake sacks...10...over or under? under.
-Sean Smith Interceptions...3..over or under? over
-Ronnie Brown..1,000 yds, over or under? under
-Phillip Merling suspension..1 game...over or under? under
Pat White..100 yds rushing or passing..over under? combined or individually? under
Pat Turner..10 catches..over or under? under
Jake Grove games missed..4 over or under? over
PSGforum_veteranQuarterback Chad Henne, 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions
Over and over
Running back Ricky Williams, 878 rushing yards
Over
Receiver Brandon Marshall, 104 receptions
Under, but by less than 10.
padre31luxury_boxDisagree about Cam Wake, more snaps will equal more sacks, add in Nolan's creativity on top of 300 more snaps and he'll wind up with at least 10 Sacks imho.
the 23rdNew MemberI really like the attention :yes:
it should really become a conversation piece
when the rubber meets the road during regular season.
they forgot about the competitive nature & ferocity
that permeates every player, every down.
it is the ultimate x-factor that will put us in the SuperBowl
every aspect of football & brutality meet on the field
playing the Miami Dolphins, they are the Orcas of the NFL
blood in the water & a feeding frenzy in 2010
they won't like the attention :no:
- Competition is the Elixir of Success -
MikeHonchosubscriber-Dolphans will collectively 
67 times during Dolphin games in 2010... Over or Under?
Headcoach material wouldn’t want to work somewhere they’re not trusted with actual football decisions.
Ohio Fanaticsubscriber"padre31 wrote:
Well, why not one done by Dolfans?
-Cameron Wake sacks...10...over or under?
-Sean Smith Interceptions...3..over or under?
-Ronnie Brown..1,000 yds, over or under?
-Phillip Merling suspension..1 game...over or under?
I'll take some of that:
-Cameron Wake: 11 sacks (OVER)
-Sean Smith: 3 INTs (does that count as over or under?)
-Ronnie Brown - 820 yards (UNDER) - misses as least 3 games this year
-P Merling - no suspension (UNDER)
testing
Pandarillaforum_veteran"lmeister3 wrote:
-Dolphans will collectively
...over
PhinsRockluxury_boxDolphin Wins: 12: over or under?
Personally I say 12, so where does that put me? (Homerville? :lol: )
2011 & 2006 World Champions, 2013 National League Champions; St. Louis Cardinals!
padre31luxury_box"PhinsRock wrote:
Dolphin Wins: 12: over or under?
Personally I say 12, so where does that put me? (Homerville? :lol: )
Sheesh..aim high why don't you?
I think this seasons' matchup with the NFC North will be a real challenge PR, every team in that division has improved greatly, toss in Al Davis's unfortunate moment of clarity when the Raiders are on the schedule and things will be tough this season with very few cupcakey games.
Opening the Season with 5 of 7 playoff teams from 09 doesn't help.
padre31luxury_box"Ohio Fanatic wrote:
I'll take some of that:
-Cameron Wake: 11 sacks (OVER)
-Sean Smith: 3 INTs (does that count as over or under?)
-Ronnie Brown - 820 yards (UNDER) - misses as least 3 games this year
-P Merling - no suspension (UNDER)
-Agree on Wake, especially with Nolan's work with Dumervil as well as Bill Sheridan running herd on the Lb's
-Smith with 3 Int's would be a push
-Never know with Ronnie B, I suspect he will be back on the 08 pitch count, meaning 15 carries a game on average.
-Merling could go either way, no knows how that will turn out but I suspect the Sheriff will lay the smack down NCAA style, not so much for what he did, but more for the idea that the NFL is not turning a blind eye to Miami's 4 arrests this offseason.
How about a couple more:
-Karlos Dansby...100 tackles..over or under?
-Ybell..100 tackles over or under?
-Rich Eisen saying "Michigan to Ohio State"..300 times..over or under?
-Jason Taylor Sacks...10..over or under?
-Charlie Anderson Sacks..7..over or under?
Frumundah FinnaticNew MemberSo Henne wasnt a prolific passer last year and Sanchez was? God the undying love he Marky mark gets is annoying.
MonstBlitz;2232016 wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if he is retained. Jeff Ireland is the nightmare that won't end. The **** stain you cannot flush. The Herpes for which there is no cure.
rafaelforum_veteranQuarterback Chad Henne, 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions
I say OVER and OVER. My prediction is 24 TDs and 13 INTs
Running back Ricky Williams, 878 rushing yards
UNDER. Brown has a big year and RWs starts to wind down his career.
Receiver Brandon Marshall, 104 receptions
UNDER. My guess is 90 catches. What will go up is his TDs. I'll guess 10 TDs.
Cameron Wake sacks..10..
OVER. He had 7 last year in limited snaps. I expect he'll have about double the snaps this year.
Sean Smith Interceptions..3..
EVEN. He was a play maker in college. He'll get comfortable this year and pull in 3 INTs.
Ronnie Brown..1,000 yds..
OVER. As I said above, he'll have a big year.
Phillip Merling suspension..1 game..
OVER. 2 games
Pat White..100 yds rushing or passing..
UNDER. Doesn't make the team.
Pat Turner..10 catches..
UNDER. Doesn't make the team.
Jake Grove games missed..4..
UNDER. He misses no more than 1 game, maybe none.
have to agree with you rafael. Henne will be throwing more and Brown is going to have a big year!
PS17New Member"PhinsRock wrote:
where does that put me? (Homerville? :lol: )
Yes.
cobrajetNew MemberGod we're hurting for things to post on these boards. I can't wait for the season to start.
padre31luxury_box"cobrajet wrote:
God we're hurting for things to post on these boards. I can't wait for the season to start.
Which is why I'm a CFL fan Bro, the start play this weekend, with a game per night starting on Thursday.
They will have played around 6 games before the preseason starts and it beats the heck out of reading about Paul Soliai's 2009 ankle and sleeping problems..:yes:
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