I heard 4-1 with win vs Ravens gets us to above 90% chance to make it in.

Still a tall order, but doable.

 

No we don't..

 

I worked a few scenarios where we get in at 10-6 with espn playoff predictor. So much relies on the outcome of other games at this point. Ran a lot of scenarios where 10-6 did not get us in also.

 

At this point, even winning out does not guarantee a playoff birth...but that's how it goes in the NFL. There's a lot of tough match-ups all over the league though that will thin out the competition, and we do have one of the easier paths to the post season at this point. With the division all but decided, we need to play championship football from here on out.

 

No.

 

Winning out puts the Dolphins at damn near 100% probability of making the playoffs.....so..yeah...

 

I'm not so sure 9-6 doesn't grab the last wdcard. All the teams ahead of us play each other. Its simply a matter of who fades

 

Really?

I don't share that opinion. The odds do not currently favor us and they only begin favoring us if you plug in a 4-1 record over the next five weeks. To get there we'll have to beat either the Ravens or Patriots, and we can't slip up in two games versus a division foe, or against Minnesota.

 

The Baltimore Ravens stand at 7-4 and they're going to be hard to beat. The New England Patriots are 9-2 and we'll be playing them in their house.

Trash the Jets all we want, they're a hated division foe. Crappy division opponents jump up and beat better division opponents all the damn time. Hell that just happened this week. The winless Raiders jumped up and beat the playoff-bound Kansas City Chiefs.

I'm not gonna say we should go winless over the next stretch or 1-4 or anything like that. I think the most prudent expected record though is probably 3-2.

 

True. You saw how competitive the Jets were last night. They are a joke and everyone has quit on that team, including their "great" coach.

No excuse not demolishing them twice.

 

Lesser division opponents beat better division opponents all the time so we should fear the Jets, but the Pats shouldn't fear us?

 

You said it would be tough for the Dolphins to miss the playoffs. I don't consider losing to the Ravens and Patriots to be a "choke job" nor will it be easy to accomplish either feat.

Either way it sounded like you were making the Dolphins out to be favorites for the playoffs and I don't believe that is accurate.

 

I went through some scenarios too with the playoff predictor and the Dolphins control their destiny winning out. They do that they are in. They lose one game and they are need to get lucky with losses by other contenders. Any of the teams in the AFC with 7 wins can possibly get 11 wins. Going 10-6 for the Dolphins might not even cut it. Go 9-7 and you can forget about it.

 

Everyone's assuming everyone is going to keep winning. Jmo, but they can't all keep winning.

I'm terrified of the jets though. It would be sooo like us to lose to them

 

The nice thing, and how you should think, is that (if we beat the Jets) the Home Baltimore game is like a playoffs game. Meaningful game in December. Making the playoffs is nice, but if we get to 10-6 it should be satisfying enough. Especially since as WC we will need to travel to Indy or Denver/KC or Bal/Pit which I don't think we match well with anyhow.

 

I think the theme for this season so far is we are winning most of the games we should and losing most of the games we are not favored to, unlike most of the past Dolphins teams who have beaten tough opponents only to choke against lesser ones soon after. We should be favorites against the Jets twice, the Vikings and maybe the Ravens at home, so if the theme continues, we should make it to 10-6... let's see what happens.

 

Ten wins gets us in, teams will have meltdowns....one or two usually do, hopefully its not us again.

 

Not everyone has to keep winning. Only 2 of the 5 teams with already 7 wins have to. Those aren't good odds for the Dolphins.

 

Wouldn't be having this discussion if the NFCS didn't suck so historically bad. AFCN teams are 10-1-1 and the one win was by Tampa. Never seen anything like it.

Having said that, it kinda helps that the AFCN teams have bad conference records as a result of padding their win total with out of conference games, and they all play each other in the next five weeks. I still think 10 wins gets it done.

 

I fully expect NY to give a good effort on Monday. Hopefully losing to them to end last season plus more experience and veteran leadership will balance that out. If so, we should handle them.

 

It would be so like us to be 3-1 and lose to the Jets in the last game of the season at home.

 

No, that wouldn't be like us. Us would win by double digits, as us have done vs bad teams all year long. It's 2014, stop living in the past.

 

I have a bad feeling that we will need to get to 11-5 to make the playoffs. I think NE is treated like a 2nd round playoff game. Win at all costs.

 

I don't think those odds take the opponents records to come up with 35% odds. I think our odds are closer to 50% as we're playing one of the worst records of the remaining teams in the hunt.

 

As realistic as I try to be regarding the chances the Dolphins make the playoffs, I think the team is definitely capable of winning out.

 

I hate these stupid playoff percentages. They swing by 20-40% every damn week. You know what that tells me? They never predicted s**t to begin with. There is no way you can assign a percentage to something that is determined by a bunch of other games with random occurrences and not way to determine who will win those games.

 

Vegas has them 80-1 to win super bowl

 

He means to guarantee our way in...and if we did win out, we might still be a wc, but we'd be a team no one wanted to play.Fact is, alot of football left to play. Regardless of how meager our chances are, they are way worse if we lose to the Jets.

 

We're in a tougher spot than we were last year, when everything fell our way for like 3 straight weeks...except us scraping out a win against the mighty Jets or Bills.

The one big positive, imo, is that we get Baltimore at home. The Ravens are a different team at M&T Bank where their defense often dominates. That game being in Miami a big deal, imo, much like getting Buffalo at home on that Thursday was a significant scheduling advantage for us. I do think that Minnesota's defense in sneaky good, though...they're playing well lately considering how bad their offense has been.

 

If the present odds of the Dolphins making the playoffs is 35%, that means the odds of them not making the playoffs is at 65%. Not the best of odds in my opinion.

I don't see them beating the Patriots, so they HAVE to go 4-1 to even have a chance at 10-6 of making the playoffs this year. Even a 10-6 record isn't a guarantee of a playoff spot this year, considering how many teams in the AFC are in the playoff race at this time.

I just don't think any 9-7 team will stand a chance of making the playoffs in the AFC.

 

No ****ing way we repeat last year. We get in at 10-6, period.

 

you know we will lose at least one more game. this is the dolphins.

 

Where do you think the Dolphins would be if we were the benefactor of playing the NFC & AFC South this year? I am a diehard fan and am also an optimist and we could go 5-0 just like we could go 3-2 or 2-3 but I still BELIEVE and I think we finish up no worse than 4-1 if not 5-0.

 

Heck..who knows, by the time we play the Pats they might have clinched home field throughout and mightbe resting players but I would rather take them down at full strength. The Patriots will not have an easy time with us....just sayin....

 

that false energy might get them a quarter and a half of competitive football, but against a team that is focused and is on a mission, they will fold up shop soon thereafter, last year they won because obviously the team wasn't focused or mature enough.

 

They are a great home team, and that's because of their venues advantages, but they have an inordinate amount of fans that come to Miami in December, even more than jet fans..they will have 20 k in the building.

Regardless it's a must win.