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Dolphins Playoff Paths

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Nov 29, 2021.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Updated 12/28/21 The Dolphins are the #7 seed, and could become the #6 seed with an Indy loss this coming week. We will also climb a seed if we beat the Pats. However, one loss in the next two games and we're basically out without 4-5 other key losses around the league.

    Additionally, if Buffalo loses the next two, we'd be playing the Pats for the division (and the #4 seed) in week 18.
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2021
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  2. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately we started way too slow for me to realistically expect to make the playoffs. I think the decision to gut veterans directly impacted that.

    At this point, for me it’s seeing how well this team can play together and to continue to see the development of our rookies and young players. My expectation is 8-9. Titans are beatable if we can pressure Tannehill but I’m expecting a loss there and probably NE.

    It appears that there is a young nucleus of talent that will shape what this team becomes. Looking back at the first 2 rounds of the last 2 drafts, even though Jackson and Noah I are busts, we’ve had some good picks.

    The future is bright but next year the expectation is playoffs or bust. I don’t care what it costs/takes, we’ve got to field a significantly better OL.
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I completely get that, but you also have to realize that today, we're probably one of the top-3 teams in the NFL...maybe top-1. This defense is scary good and they're still getting better each week. From a locker room standpoint, I don't think we are afraid of anyone at the moment.

    Also, no team has ever made the playoffs after starting 1-7. We have a 3% chance- which means the playoffs shouldn't happen. It will take an extraordinary effort to win out.

    But that brings us to the heart of your point- losing the veterans really hurt us early and probably set us back 6 weeks. There were 3 or 4 we could have won with the right leaders in place...would you say the same thing if we were 9-3 right now? Because this is the roster that ultimately would have ended up on the field in December anyway...but we went the hard route and now those rookies/young players are flourishing due to the learning curves.

    Again, we win 5 games and were just about a lock for the post-season (90% chance without factoring other teams). That would have us on a 9-game win streak going into the playoffs...which sounds ridiculous. But until we lose, I'll be on that bandwagon. =)
     
  4. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I just want to see the defense continue playing like this till the end of the year and beyond and our offense creating an identity. To me thats a win on a season that started off bad.
     
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  5. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    Playoffs? Beat the Giants. Get to the bye, use the time for an OL shuffling. Then I can get on board for the final run. Lindsay played hard yesterday and saved Tua on one big pass play to Waddle. Maybe he adds a necessary spark to the run game and pass protection.
     
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  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Me too- it's definitely not about "playoffs" as much as it is dominating teams in December when football really matters the most. We had a great November...but we did last year as well. Now the team has to figure out how to own December to make January meaningful.
     
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  7. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I still come back to the decision to cut Flowers, Karras and Van Noy. If we have Flowers and Karras, then play the best 3 Hunt, Davis and Liam, what does this offense look like? Does Tua get hurt because our pass pro is such a s*** show? How many more games do we win during that streak with Tua at the helm vs Brisset? What if we could even run the ball at a mid tier level?

    Water under the bridge. I still think Grier makes too many boneheaded decisions that hold us back. With this years draft, I doubt he gets replaced. I just don’t want to see him let Ogbah, Gesicki go and we have the same issues to start next season.
     
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  8. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I’m not not going to get into the hype of playoffs. Too premature and unrealistic to even think about that. But with that being said…

    If…and I emphasize with a capitalized IF we were to win out and actually make it to the playoffs, we would be the team no one would want to play.

    History has shown that teams going strong into the playoffs are the Cinderella upset teams to behead the giants in the playoffs and limped in.
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Dolphins currently have a 1 in 400 chance to win the SB, so highly unlikely obviously. Of course, that's still better than the 1000 to 1 odds the US hockey team had of beating the Soviet Union in the 1980 Olympics. Then there's Leicester City winning the Premier League with possibly the worst odds in team sports history: 5000 to 1 odds lol. So anything is possible?

    Anyway, just to sober things up a bit more, aside from the very low probability of making the playoffs, only 6 Wild Cards have ever won the SB, out of 214 total I think, so only a 2.8% chance of winning the SB IF we make the playoffs.

    The closest late season rally Wild Card (and 6th seed) team to win the SB was Pittsburgh in 2005. They won their last 4 and became the first 6th seed to win the SB. We'd have to out-do that by winning our last 9 lol. Oh, and Roethlisberger was playing at an elite level back then with a z-score of +1.7 (he had a 98.6 rating when the league average was 80.1).

    On average a QB on a SB winning team plays at a z-score passer rating of about +1 in that year. So the target for Tua would be to end with around a 102 rating this year (league average is currently 91.6 with a standard deviation of 10.3). That's not impossible if somehow Tua can keep up his 100+ rating games (3 in a row now).
     
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  10. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not entertaining any playoff consideration right now. We dug much too deep a hole to get that far ahead of ourselves. I'm just hoping we win the next game, take advantage of the bye to get healthy, and return strong enough to win the next game. Hopefully, Flo's message to the team is to take things one game at a time because right now, every game is a playoff game (like the last game against the Bills). If we lose, we're done. If we beat the odds and manage to win out and earn a spot in the tournament, the good news is that we'll be a tough team to beat.
     
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  11. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I have no personal hope of the playoffs. We dug too deep of a hole.

    My only real desire is to see the offense gradually show something the rest of the season. Sunday vs the Panthers was OK. I mean, mediocre is better than awful, so its a step in the right direction. It would be nice to end the year with a good taste in my mouth about what's happening.
     
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  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Think about it this way- statistically, how many 1-7 teams have went on 4-game win streaks in November? I'd guess that # is zero. So we're already doing the impossible and my view is that we just have to do that 5 more games, LOL. Then 4 more times in the playoffs.

    I'm not expecting a Super Bowl appearance this year either, and my mentality is one game at a time. Can we beat the Giants? I don't see why not. That's our only focus though and this thread is to track it.

    If we win, our chances of being in the playoffs go from 3% to 4%! With some big upsets, it can swing as far as a 5.2% chance!
     
  13. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    A lot of mentions of ‘the slow start.’
    It should read slow STARTS.

    As long as Flores is coach of this franchise, the team will have to finish the last 10 games On a miraculous near perfect run to ever make the playoffs! He has proven every year he is completely incapable of preparing a team and bringing a team together to start a season.

    3 straight years is not a fluke… It’s a fact at this point.

    2019; 0-7 start
    5-4 finish

    2020; 1-3 start
    10-3 finish

    2021; 1-7 start
    4-0 since

     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Not sure I agree Flores is "completely incapable of preparing a team" to start the season because 2020 really wasn't that bad: 2 of those 3 losses were to the (eventual) 13-3 Bills and 12-4 Seahawks. Those were VERY good teams. Also, if you're going to look at the first 7-8 games for 2019 and 2021 you should do the same for 2020, and we were 5-3 in 2020.

    Anyway, the 2019 start makes sense given how depleted we were. It's 2021 that's problematic. We don't have any good excuses for some of the losses this year, especially to Jacksonville and Atlanta.
     
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  15. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    Its certainly a very disturbing trend. Putting yourself behind the eight ball at the start of every year makes things very difficult. Personally, it not only makes me uneasy but sucks the enthusiasm right out. Truly, if the team starts 4-1, and then ends up 5-5, I still feel very positive. But if they start 1-4 and then get to 5-5, I feel like the wheels are just waiting to fall off, because asking them to continue that streak is too much.
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You have to take that in context though- who were the 2019 Dolphins going to beat after gutting the entire roster and bringing in 40+ players on their 1st contract? I think we all expected an 0-16 season that year.

    Last year, we started off "better" and had a pretty good team by the end of the season. Still lots of growing pains though and it spilled over into this year when we did another veteran purge. But look at our defense now- it's freaking dominant and as long as X stays healthy, it will remain dominant for a number of seasons.

    I'm highly optimistic that year 4 won't have those same growing pains...and I also think year 3 still has a lot to prove.
     
  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I think that year four could potentially start very well on defense, but I'm just not going to feel good about the offense until there are massive coaching changes and we make a big move to improve the run game. We can't rely on holding the other team to under 20 points every week. Its not a long term winning solution.

    Beyond that, the franchise as a whole has started slowly for so long, that its really worn on me. We haven't come out and played at least fairly well on offense in September since 2013!
     
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  18. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    I see a pattern developing we did this last year as well we went through a rut the beginning of the season And then went on a spree which had us on the cusp for the playoffs And we didn’t pull through I’m not going down that road again you guys can all be super super happy and enjoy the wins But don’t get it in your head for a second that this is a playoff team you just looking for a let down too many good teams left on our schedule for us to win out.

    Maybe I’m just being a Debbie downer but this team created me to be a Debbie downer he just can’t lose 7 In a row and consider yourself a good football team we need a bunch of changes and any more wins is just going to convince this ownership that they can stay the course and that next year will be the magical year
     
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  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Top 3?? Are you kidding me?

    We just beat the Panthers who only had one win more than us. We beat the garbage Jets. Who have we beat that is any good?

    Come on man.
     
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  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We blew out the Ravens, who look like one of the best teams in football right now. The Panthers also had the league's best passing defense, so those are two games that were not in our favor and it wasn't even close. For November, nobody has been playing on our level except for the Chiefs and the Pats.
     
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  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The Ravens game was a big win for sure. But, beating one good team? Cam Newton is awful. I don't put much stock in stopping him.
     
  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Newton is past his prime for sure, but he looked great the previous week and the "talking heads" expected him to slaughter us. I know it's not like blowing out the Bills or anything, but it's been four impressive wins from what was perceived as a bad team. Nobody really did that in November except for the few I named. Washington and San Fran have also trended upwards, but they weren't winning games in a dominant fashion like we have been.
     
  23. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    With the Titans and Saints recent fortunes, All remaining games are winnable.
    Beating the New York teams are the next challenge. Ovs.

    Like last year, there are too many quality teams for them to realistically make the playoffs. The entire AFC North and West are in contention. Maybe the Oranges, Chargers and Raiders fall off. But who else?
     
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    If you look at the remaining schedule for all the teams ahead of us (Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, Colts, Browns, Steelers) it's pretty brutal, mostly because a lot of them play each other but also because they play some really strong teams too. I think it's a given none of them end up with fewer than 7 losses. If we win out, we're very likely in. On the other hand if we lose one, we're very likely out.

    Simple calculus. That NE game at the end might be the decider.
     
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  25. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    Similar to last season, you'd like to hope New England has little to play for down the stretch. But they'll likely be in it with Buffalo for the division.

    If the Dolphins don't win out, it would be nice to see them spoil that bratty Mac Jone's season.
     
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  26. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Whether we make the playoffs or not, I just really want us to finish with a winning record. I think the pieces are in place besides a LT. This team just needs a little more experience, an off-season and then to not start next year so slow.
     
  27. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    If the Dolphins win out, there is a decent chance of them making the playoffs. It isn't unrealistic, if they win out.

    Again, they need to win out. Which might be the most unrealistic part. Winning 9 games in a row is difficult, even if the teams are beatable. Especially with Miami's offensive line.
     
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  28. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Just need to take it one game at a time instead of thinking how many in a row it is.

    As fans, we can look ahead. The Saints seem to be getting healthy but still don't have a QB. The Titans might have their wideouts back. Supposedly Henry could be back but I don't know how effective he'd be.

    Sure would be nice to go into the last game of the season with a win and in chance. We blew it last year so maybe we would have learned something.
     
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  29. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    100% agreed. It is just hard to win in the NFL. The difference between good teams and bad teams isn't that big. Sometimes a little bad luck, making mistakes, or making a really good play is all it takes for a team to beat a team that is "better".

    Saints don't scare me because they don't have an accurate quick thinking quarterback. Those are the type that really hurt Miami's defense. They seem to be able to do a lot better with running QBs this year. So Taysom doesn't scare me.

    Titans could be an issue as Tannehill can be accurate and can be quick thinking.

    New England will be tough due to their offensive line.

    However, Giants and Jets could beat Miami if Miami plays like they did against the Jags and Falcons. Can't make boneheaded mistakes.
     
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  30. Tone_E

    Tone_E Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I just want Miami to finish with a better record than SF so we don't feel bad about last year's trade.
     
  31. bbqpitlover

    bbqpitlover Well-Known Member

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  32. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    I think its asking alot to win 9 games in a row.The slow start really killed any realistic chance at playoffs.
     
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  33. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The 72 Dolphins won 17 in a row, NE won 18 in a row. 9 in a row is not all that outrageous.
     
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  34. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Some people don't leave their grandparents basement.
     
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  35. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    Others probably shouldn't.
     
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  36. Rouk

    Rouk Well-Known Member

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    Am i the only one fully expecting us to lose to either the jets or giants. Seems like classic time for dolphins to fall flat on their face.
     
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  37. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We used to not do well in December after a strong start, as I recall. More recently we used to not play well during prime time. That also has changed somewhat. It just seems like the boys have found their mojo and are enjoying themselves.
     
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  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    A part of me is nervous, sure, but it's all about that confidence in the locker room and believing in one another. I'm not sweating the next three and I'm not terrified of the Titans. But if we choke, I think it's to Tenn or NE.
     
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  39. Alan in England

    Alan in England Member

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    zero chance of the play offs despite the recent run.
     
  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No, we currently have a 3% chance, LOL. This is where we stand just based on our own wins; not accounting for what the rest of the league does:
    • A win next week and it's a 5% chance.
    • Two wins in a row and it's still a 5% chance.
    • Three wins in a row and it's a 15% chance.
    • Four wins in a row and it's a 37% chance.
    • Five wins and it's an 88% chance.
    I'm not trying to over-hype this or anything- right now we'd need to win all 5 to be locked in the playoffs. If we win the next three, then I'll start doing scenarios of who we'd need to win/lose to get in with 9 wins. But it's all for nothing if we don't win AT LEAST the next 3.

    One final note- we DEFINITELY want the Bills over the Pats this week, Ravens over Steelers and Washington over Vegas. Those games improve our overall odds by 4%. Texans over Colts give another 1%, but that likely doesn't have a chance.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2021

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