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Dolphins Playoff Paths

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Nov 29, 2021.

  1. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    Oh I don't think that the Fins stand a chance in the playoffs if they make it. There is no way that they go on the road and win in cold weather, and they can't keep up with the Chargers offense. The only scenario where I think they keep it close would be at Indy.
     
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  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think you're wrong, but it's a good argument to have if we make it that far, LOL.
     
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  3. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    I think the best shot is Baltimore falling off. They have a tough schedule and are not very good.
     
  4. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    The thing is though, if Baltimore beats the Browns and Bengals, that helps us. From what I can tell, if we end up at 10 wins and tied with either of those two, we're likely to lose the tiebreaker. Certainly root for the Ravens to lose to the Packers and Rams of course.
     
  5. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    They all have brutal schedules. I think Cleveland and Mayfield are done. Burrow has a finger injury. (Yes, Burrow is injured again what a weakling.)

    They are probably going to beat the crap out of eachother when they play. It will be interesting to see what happens with those teams.
     
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  6. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    Either way, like I said, we need to finish with a better record than Cleveland and Cincinnati. It'll be interesting if their game in Week 18 is as important to us as our own.
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Has anyone noticed we're now the 11st best defense by points allowed per game? We used to be 32nd for a long stretch. We've given up an average of only 11 points per game in the last 5 games. That is really impressive regardless of opponent.

    Playoff level defense for sure.
     
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  8. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    It was amazing how bad Miami was playing at the beginning of the year. This defense needs a healthy Jones/Howard and Davis. Without that, they are very suspect. Though hopefully they will be a little more resilient with the improvements in Holland and Phillips. Plus Van Ginkle playing well.
     
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  9. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    Lamar Jackson looks like a completely different QB after Miami put the beatdown on him. It's like Flores figured out how to solve the Rubik's cube and now everybody is copying the formula and Harbaugh can't figure out how to help Lamar change it.
     
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  10. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    They were on pace to allow the most points in franchise history through Week 8.

    I don't think that they're as bad as that, or as good as the recent stats have been. More likely somewhere in the middle.
     
  11. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    When healthy, I do not agree. When healthy, they are more like the last five weeks than the first 8.
     
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  12. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Our next 4 games. I don’t see us winning out and here is why.


    HOME: JETS. - We should win this one, but I always worry about the Phins playing at the level of competition. Score: 21-13 FINS
    AWAY: New Orleans On the road to a team struggling at Home 2-4. Miami’s Defense has to pressure whoever is QB. Score: FINS 28-21
    AWAY: TENNESSEE - Tough go lately and weaker with Henry but the outpace the Phins IMHO. Score: 23-13 Tennessee
    HOME: NEW ENGLAND - New England is a better team than the one we faced week 1, Our defense has to be lights out and our offense will struggle to move the ball. Score: New England 20- Miami 17

    That Puts us at a record of 8-10 right back in the middle of mediocrity not bad enough for a top pick if we had one and not good enough for playoffs. This has been the META for at least 10 years here and I don’t see it changing this year.

    I do believe we give TUA another year as this would be IMHO his first year as QB. He’s improved in some things a lot, but he still needs to grow and we need to build a much better passing online around him. We also need to acquire a true running back. Parker should be let go or traded if possible and we need another good wideout. On Offense.

    On Defense I think we need more safety and a better linebacker. Another Edge wouldn’t hurt. I don’t know if we can address all our needs in the time this organization is going to be given. I do believe we need new coordinators especially on the offensive side.
     
  13. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    But we don't have our top pick.

    Also, Miami doesn't need more safety.
     
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  14. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I agree that they very likely won't add another safety as anything more than a reserve and ST guy because they have Rowe and Brandon Jones signed next season. We also have more pressing needs. But ultimately, I'd like a better solution at SS.
     
  15. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Unless they could get a third year Cam Chancellor type player, I don't see any need to upgrade safety. Rowe and Jones are both really good at their positions
     
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  16. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Agreed our backfield is fine with me too but maybe a CB because Iggy seems like a big bust and X knees don’t get better. What I would really like for our D is a dominant MLB.
     
  17. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Agreed.

    I like Van Ginkle, but I think he can be upgraded. Duke Riley is playing well, however, he too can be upgraded. Elandan Roberts can be upgraded as well.
     
  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's the beauty of building an elite defense though- it can consistently improve over seasons by bringing in one guy at a time to work through the rotation and learn from studs ahead of him. I love our base defensive lineup and definitely not complaining, but I do think we can get even better the next few seasons.
     
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  19. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    As long as we win, we have a 93% chance of being in...and that should be a 100% chance by week 18. We just need 4 more W's.
     
  21. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We could very well see NE resting their starters in week 18, having clinched a 1st round bye.
     
  22. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    The Bills are losers. Now we need them to lose to the Bucs, the Pats again, and one more.... Panthers? Falcons? A Jets miracle?

    Or the Pats lose to the Colts, the Bills, and then Miami beats them? We can't have the Bills and Pats split games without really hurting the Dolphins chances to get a wildcard spot.
     
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  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    It would be crazy, but its possible. They're a game up on the rest of the AFC and have a 7-1 record in the conference. Every other AFC team has at least three conference losses, and KC and BAL have four.

    However, they don't automatically clinch just by winning their next three. Both Baltimore and KC have the chance to win their own next four in a row and force the Patriots to win in the final week. But it looks like if either of those two lose a game before then and NE runs the table, then yes, they would clinch the #1 seed prior to Week 18.
     
  24. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It would possibly be our best chance to make it to the play-offs. Do NE a favor by knocking off the Titans and them doing us a favor by resting their starters. As distasteful as it sounds I found myself rooting for them in last night's game, They're a good enough team that they can even win without a QB. There, I said it, now I feel like I need a shower.
     
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  25. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    The only thing we can do is somehow win out. If they don't manage that somehow it really doesn't matter. The last two are the toughest imho. Not that the Saints won't be tough at home it just seem that the Titans in their place dealing with the weather and finishing with a division game is not an easy task. Now it's entirely possible that the Pats won't have anything to play for that game and end up sitting their starters but the way this season has gone I wouldn't count on it.
     
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  26. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    The Dolphins make a point of beating the Pats at home in December. It's almost a given. Even when they have something to play for.
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Both NE and Buffalo have a few tough games ahead, so the Pats winning isn't too much of a handicap at this point. Truthfully, it's not unheard of for three teams from the same division to make it to the playoffs. So don't sweat that at the moment.

    As I've tried to point out in all my posts here, the biggest factor BY FAR is Miami winning 4 more games. If we can't do that, then we don't deserve the playoffs after a 1-7 start. It stinks and all, but we dug this hole ourselves and we absolutely have four winnable games left on the schedule.

    As long as we keep winning, we have about a 94% chance of making the playoffs...and that will be 100% by week 18 since someone will drop.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2021
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The main danger for us, after Buffalo losing yesterday, is being tied with Buffalo 10-7 at the end. That's the ONE result we can't have because the first WC tiebreaker is the division tiebreaker, and we're 0-2 against Buffalo.

    Buffalo plays precisely 2 strong teams: Bucs and Pats. The rest are weak: Panthers, Jets, Atlanta. The worst thing to happen would be if they go 3-2 and end up 10-7 knocking us out. So we need to either hope Buffalo goes 4-1 or better, or 2-3 or worse. At least that's what it seems like reading the tiebreaking rules:
    https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tie-breaking-procedures/
     
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think Buffalo is as big of a threat as you think as long as someone else crashes (which they always do). If we miss at 10 wins like last year, then so be it, but the odds are in our favor of all 3 of us making the playoffs if we get to 10 wins.

    It stinks this is the bye week and this conversation can't fully advance for another two weeks, LOL. But at least we'll have the Buffalo/Tampa results later this week.
     
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  30. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    The Bills are 7-5.

    They play the Bucs in Tampa this week. If they lose, the Phins will only be a game back.

    They have another game in Foxboro and two relatively easy games against Carolina and Atlanta.

    That compares to our games against the Titans and Saints. The Saints have been straight dog poop since Halloween. We have 2 very winnable games and two tough games, the Bills only have 2 tough games remaining.

    So catching them would require John Allen to fall off a cliff. They did lose to Jville :tongue:
     
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  31. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Don’t feel bad. We needed the Patriots to win last night to help our playoff chances.
     
  32. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    Most people felt the opposite. Had NE been swept by Buffalo, it would have helped us a ton. We would have potentially owned the tiebreaker with them, which we cannot with Buffalo.
     
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  33. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    We need both teams to lose at least three games. We're in position to give New England one of their losses. If Buffalo won last night, we'd need them to lose four.

    If my math checks, at least...
     
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  34. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I guess it depends on whether you think we have a shot at the division title. I think that was always hopeless. I'm only hoping for the final WC spot.

    If NE had lost, and then also lost vs BUF again, then we could have tied with them at 10-7 at the end of the year potentially, and owned the tiebreaker. But that chance is gone. I'm assuming that BUF would always finish ahead of us.
     
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  35. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I get your point, but it would be more feasible for Buffalo, who seems to be faltering to lose enough games to fall out of the wildcard spot and we could possibly slip in…

    Although there is still a number of teams ahead of us in the playoff race that need catastrophe to hit them as well in order for us to move up.

    We can’t do anything about the Patriots or Titans making the playoffs. They’re too far ahead of us. The Saints and the Jets are irrelevant as their games aren’t effected by us winning.

    Buffalo losing was the only viable option for us last night. Now if the inconsistent Chargers and Bengals will continue to lose…and a few others to the hunt, we just might have a chance.
     
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  36. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I guess we'll just agree to disagree. If the Bills, who still play the Panthers, Falcons and Jets, win three more games, we cannot get into the playoffs instead of them.
     
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  37. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I see. It sucks whenever you no longer control your destiny. But that's the table we set for ourselves. I'm not even considering the playoffs at this point, just want to finish strong so I can go into the offseason with optimism. Anything more than that is welcome, but not expected.
     
  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We absolutely still control our destiny for the most part- the division doesn't matter. Think about it this way:

    Seeding (current leaders in each bracket)
    1. AFC East Winner (NE)
    2. AFC South Winner (Titans)
    3. AFC North Winner (Ravens)
    4. AFC West Winner (Chiefs)
    5.
    6.
    7.

    For 5 thru 7, it could be us, the Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Bills, Raiders, Broncos, Pitt, and Browns. So that's 9 names (including us) for three slots and we all have 6 or 7 wins. The main thing we can hope for today is for those four names I placed in seeds 1-4 to win out...which will naturally eliminate most of those nine names.

    The exception, of course, is us...we want to beat the Titans and NE...but we want those two to beat everyone else. If we win all 4 and the division leaders keep winning as well, we have a very good chance of getting in even if Buffalo makes it as well.

    Looking at schedules, none of the six-win teams will win out- Steelers, Browns, Raiders, Broncos. They play each other still, so many names will drop...likely all four of them.

    The 7 win teams are the Bills, Bengals, Chargers and Colts. We need two of them to lose two of four total OR the Bills to lose three more. Or, some of them could lose one total and tie with us...but that's too much math for four weeks out. I'll get deeper in that in a few weeks.

    Remember, two of these teams getting in is fine...we just don't need 3 or more to keep winning.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2021
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Buffalo winning yesterday would have been better for us because they beat us head-to-head in the WC race.

    Simple summary of playoff scenarios is: 1) we win out, and 2) Buffalo does NOT end 10-7, and 3) the rest will most likely take care of itself given how many games the other contenders play against each other.

    If you need to root for someone, always go for the division leader (NE, Ravens, Titans, KC) unless they play us (Titans and NE).
     
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  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Taking another look, we actually aren't out of the divisional race yet.

    Step 1- Pats lose to the Bills, the Colts and us
    Step 2- Bills lose to the Bucs, the Panthers and one more team
    Step 3- We win out

    There's a real chance if both of them start stinking and we keep winning, we take the #3 seed and have a homefield game in the wildcard. Maybe we could even snag the #2 seed if the Ravens or Chiefs faltered.

    Imagine that- going from 1 and 7 to the division champion in the same season...our fanbase would be going ballistic!
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2021

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