Bills win in that case it looks like. Here are the tie-breaking rules: https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tie-breaking-procedures/ The first one for 3 teams tied within the division is head-to-head win% among the teams. Bills would be 3-1 while we'd be 2-2 and Pats would be 1-3. So division is a pipe dream. WC at 10-7 is the only truly realistic path for us.