This is true. But our task is much more difficult if we lose a game. Don't mind my semantics; my words were not meant to be literal, but practical regarding our focus. We can win out and still not make the playoffs but if we don't, it'll be much harder. Almost like a play-in situation more than a playoff situation and we're still not guaranteed to advance.
A week ago right now, it felt like we'd be in a "win-and'you're-in" situation the rest of the year, but that MNF game where the Patriots beat the Bills was an absolute killer, and several other games didn't go our way yesterday, unfortunately. Its all just really muddy right now.
If we win all 4, I'm seeing odds between 84 and 92% of making the playoffs. So yes, it's possible for us to win out and still miss the post-season. But what those odds aren't factoring is the teams in 4th-7th place currently all playing each other over the next few weeks. Then there's Baltimore- will they win another game if Jackson can't play? I don't know, but that would take care of the Browns or Bengals for us when one becomes that division champ. I get what you're saying and all, but our only chance of playoffs is winning out. I think the Dolphins know that too and they're essentially preparing each week like we're already in do or die mode.
Naw, we're looking at 5 teams and we need three of them to lose once over the next month...and all those teams play each other. This field will thin quickly over the next two weeks.
As I said before, I just don't believe those odds. I've seen too many plausible scenarios where the Fins are out of it while winning all of the four remaining games. I think those computer models put way too much stock in several games happening a certain way. Tweak that, and the whole thing falls apart. We need to win the next two, and then look at all of that again. It should be clearer after our MNF game vs the Saints. Hopefully better.
Some perspective (from espn.com): 6th Place - Indianapolis Colts Wins tie break over Buffalo, Cleveland and Denver based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Cincinnati (Cleveland wins tie break over Cincinnati based on head-to-head win percentage). 7th Place - Buffalo Bills Wins tie break over Cleveland and Denver based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Cincinnati (Cleveland wins tie break over Cincinnati based on head-to-head win percentage). 8th Place - Cleveland Browns Wins tie break over Denver based on head-to-head win percentage. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Cincinnati (Cleveland wins tie break over Cincinnati based on head-to-head win percentage). 9th Place - Cincinnati Bengals Wins tie break over Denver based on best win percentage in conference games. 10th Place - Denver Broncos 11th Place - Pittsburgh Steelers 12th Place - Las Vegas Raiders Wins tie break over Miami based on head-to-head win percentage. 13th Place - MIAMI DOLPHINS
I think they put equal stock into each game. I doubt any computer model weights games like Buffalo vs Carolina different than Patriots vs Colts. So the odds are accurate because they are unbiased. Just because something happens that is 6% likely to happen, doesn't mean the modal was wrong.
Computer models don't weight individual games more, but they do make assumptions about the probability of a given team winning any given matchup. The first problem is calculating that probability. The best computer models get that about 67% correct on average, so right off the bat you have a 1/3 probability a key assumption in the model is wrong, which can vastly change the estimated odds. Secondly, if unexpected results occur, then even if all other assumptions are correct that can change the odds from what they otherwise would have been (i.e., prior to the unexpected result). Finally, it's impossible for any computer at this stage of the season to calculate every possibility (too many possible outcomes), so they have to randomly sample from the set of outcomes. This third aspect doesn't introduce a bias per se, but it does make the estimated probabilities less accurate (i.e., it's like the effect of "small sample size" in that there's a lot of variance/uncertainty in it). So who knows what the actual odds are. The only defense of computer models I'll give at this stage of the season is that they're still probably the best estimates you're likely to obtain even if they might be off by a decent amount.
The Browns have 18 players on the Covid list. Browns play the Raiders this week. I think I want the Raiders to lose as the Browns have Green Bay, Steelers and Bengals after that. Either one losing helps us. KC at Chargers were rooting KC. New England vs Indy - I don't even wan to type it but NE. Tennesse vs Pittsburg - Titans Cincy vs Denver - I think I want Cincy to lose as I see them as a better team. But either one losing helps. Green Bay vs Baltimore - GB
I did a whole posting on this, but your selections on who needs to win/lose is absolutely correct. With the Browns being decimated with the number of positive Covid cases, this is exactly what we needed to give us a fighting chance to get into the post season.
I didn't update the main thread this week because not much has changed during the bye. Overall we're a few percentage points further in making the playoffs, but the road has also become more complicated as well. Like I've said over and over again though, all the teams ahead of us play each other and many will be out of the picture completely in 2-3 weeks. I can't say "win and we're in" anymore, but "win and we're probably in" is still true. In a nutshell though, we want: - Tenn and KC to keep winning - Everyone else in the AFC to take a few losses
Why is Bill Belichick such a good #$##ing coach! I don't want them to get the first round bye in the playoffs. I can't take another Patriot super bowl. I thought I was free. This is the worst timeline.
I'm not 100% convinced of that- there's a very good path with NE losing their next two as well (w/ Bills taking the division thanks to us in week 18). We'll know what to root for after the Indy/NE game though!
Good job Chiefs. Thank you Chargers for going for it on every 4th down and not kicking any field goals.
This is a game that Sparano would have won if he was coaching the Chargers.... maybe. No way in hell he doesn't try all three field goals, maybe even sneak in a fourth to negate at least one of the Chargers TDs.
The Chargers losing staves off the absolute worst case scenario for the Fins, and means that they should still be alive heading into the Tennessee game if they can win the next two weeks. It also solidifies that we root for KC to win out with no conflicts there.
Yeah, I'd rather see the Colts and Bills beat the Pats and we get the chance to knock them out of the playoffs in the final week. At the very least (if Miami lost a game before then) we could keep them from winning the division, but getting that last wildcard spot while keeping NE out entirely would be SO awesome. I know Miami fans can't have nice things, but I can at least dream, right?
I know the Colts losing helps the Fins, but man, it’s hard to root for the Patriots. PS. Jonathan Taylor and Quentin Nelson are beasts. Miami would be infinitely better with those 2 players.
Not necessarily.If the colts win and Bills can beat pats next week and of course we continue to win week 18 will be for last wildcard spot and we win we have tiebreaker.
Looks like the Pats were not quite ready for this game. Colts up 17-0 and Wac Jones just tossed a bad INT inside the Red Zone. The Bills should be inspired against the Panthers if the Pats go on to lose this one, as they look to a showdown game with the Pats after that.
Without Belichick the Patriots are probably a below .500 team. I've never seen a less talented team at 9-4. Them being underdogs in this game on a 7 game winning streak with every media outlet saying they're going to the Super Bowl says alot about what oddsmakers think of them. If Buffalo wins this week I think Vegas has them as favorites in New England next week.
If tonight's score holds, then it looks like next weeks Bills/Pats game becomes as important for Miami as any of our own remaining games. A Bills win, and we're still very much alive. A Patriots win, and we might be as good as dead even if we finish at 10-7.
Mac Jones playing like the rookie he is tonight so far. I want to see what the Colts are doing to him for us to do to Zach Wilson and the Jests.
Yeah, we really need the Bills to win that game or else BOTH the Bills and Pats take up playoff spots. Way too many games to be played before things shake out though, so I'm just going to enjoy a game where Wac Jones actually HAS to pass for them to win.
Ever since we were swept by the Bills, the odds were we wouldn't get into the playoffs instead of them. It just wasn't going to happen. We lose any tiebreaker. But if they can beat NE next week, then we still have the potential of sweeping NE and having the better AFC East record compared to the Patriots in our back pocket.
One more step toward the playoffs for Miami. Colts hold on to win 27-17 and set up an epic game in New England next weekend. Next week will have games being played most every day, so the playoff picture for Miami will change early and often.
Winning out is even more important now for us. If we win out and the Patriots finish the season 10-7 with us, we'll own the tie breaker as we will have swept them...so if it comes down to us or the Patriots for the "final" playoff spot, it would be ours.
Not getting as much help as I'd hoped so far -but maybe that Titans game won't be as tough as most think? Miami just needs to keep winning and odds are still good it all falls into place.
Titans are in freefall (relatively speaking). Without Henry they're just average, and Tannehill is solidly below average this year. They also play SF next and that's likely a loss for them too. I think 9-7 is now likely. That NE game will be the decider.
Well, we didn't lose. Julio Jones got hurt again for TEN. Might make that game a little easier for us in two weeks.
