1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Dolphins Playoff Paths

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Nov 29, 2021.

  1. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

    2,278
    2,226
    113
    Jul 8, 2020
    This is true. But our task is much more difficult if we lose a game. Don't mind my semantics; my words were not meant to be literal, but practical regarding our focus. We can win out and still not make the playoffs but if we don't, it'll be much harder.

    Almost like a play-in situation more than a playoff situation and we're still not guaranteed to advance.
     
  2. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

    44,107
    47,829
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    A week ago right now, it felt like we'd be in a "win-and'you're-in" situation the rest of the year, but that MNF game where the Patriots beat the Bills was an absolute killer, and several other games didn't go our way yesterday, unfortunately. Its all just really muddy right now.
     
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,804
    12,039
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    If we win all 4, I'm seeing odds between 84 and 92% of making the playoffs.

    So yes, it's possible for us to win out and still miss the post-season. But what those odds aren't factoring is the teams in 4th-7th place currently all playing each other over the next few weeks. Then there's Baltimore- will they win another game if Jackson can't play? I don't know, but that would take care of the Browns or Bengals for us when one becomes that division champ.

    I get what you're saying and all, but our only chance of playoffs is winning out. I think the Dolphins know that too and they're essentially preparing each week like we're already in do or die mode.
     
  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,804
    12,039
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Naw, we're looking at 5 teams and we need three of them to lose once over the next month...and all those teams play each other. This field will thin quickly over the next two weeks.
     
  5. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

    44,107
    47,829
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    As I said before, I just don't believe those odds. I've seen too many plausible scenarios where the Fins are out of it while winning all of the four remaining games. I think those computer models put way too much stock in several games happening a certain way. Tweak that, and the whole thing falls apart.

    We need to win the next two, and then look at all of that again. It should be clearer after our MNF game vs the Saints. Hopefully better.
     
  6. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

    2,278
    2,226
    113
    Jul 8, 2020
    Some perspective (from espn.com):
    6th Place - Indianapolis Colts
    Wins tie break over Buffalo, Cleveland and Denver based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Cincinnati (Cleveland wins tie break over Cincinnati based on head-to-head win percentage).

    7th Place - Buffalo Bills
    Wins tie break over Cleveland and Denver based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Cincinnati (Cleveland wins tie break over Cincinnati based on head-to-head win percentage).

    8th Place - Cleveland Browns
    Wins tie break over Denver based on head-to-head win percentage. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Cincinnati (Cleveland wins tie break over Cincinnati based on head-to-head win percentage).

    9th Place - Cincinnati Bengals
    Wins tie break over Denver based on best win percentage in conference games.

    10th Place - Denver Broncos
    11th Place - Pittsburgh Steelers
    12th Place - Las Vegas Raiders
    Wins tie break over Miami based on head-to-head win percentage.

    13th Place - MIAMI DOLPHINS
     
  7. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,191
    32,697
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    I think they put equal stock into each game. I doubt any computer model weights games like Buffalo vs Carolina different than Patriots vs Colts.

    So the odds are accurate because they are unbiased.

    Just because something happens that is 6% likely to happen, doesn't mean the modal was wrong.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

    9,470
    11,343
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Computer models don't weight individual games more, but they do make assumptions about the probability of a given team winning any given matchup. The first problem is calculating that probability. The best computer models get that about 67% correct on average, so right off the bat you have a 1/3 probability a key assumption in the model is wrong, which can vastly change the estimated odds.

    Secondly, if unexpected results occur, then even if all other assumptions are correct that can change the odds from what they otherwise would have been (i.e., prior to the unexpected result).

    Finally, it's impossible for any computer at this stage of the season to calculate every possibility (too many possible outcomes), so they have to randomly sample from the set of outcomes. This third aspect doesn't introduce a bias per se, but it does make the estimated probabilities less accurate (i.e., it's like the effect of "small sample size" in that there's a lot of variance/uncertainty in it).

    So who knows what the actual odds are. The only defense of computer models I'll give at this stage of the season is that they're still probably the best estimates you're likely to obtain even if they might be off by a decent amount.
     
  9. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

    2,278
    2,226
    113
    Jul 8, 2020
    [​IMG]
     
    Big Phin, Mafioso, Irishman and 3 others like this.
  10. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    3,011
    2,803
    113
    May 2, 2014
    SO Cal
    The Browns have 18 players on the Covid list. Browns play the Raiders this week. I think I want the Raiders to lose as the Browns have Green Bay, Steelers and Bengals after that. Either one losing helps us.

    KC at Chargers were rooting KC.
    New England vs Indy - I don't even wan to type it but NE.
    Tennesse vs Pittsburg - Titans
    Cincy vs Denver - I think I want Cincy to lose as I see them as a better team. But either one losing helps.
    Green Bay vs Baltimore - GB
     
  11. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    10,540
    9,079
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    I did a whole posting on this, but your selections on who needs to win/lose is absolutely correct. With the Browns being decimated with the number of positive Covid cases, this is exactly what we needed to give us a fighting chance to get into the post season.
     
  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,804
    12,039
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I didn't update the main thread this week because not much has changed during the bye. Overall we're a few percentage points further in making the playoffs, but the road has also become more complicated as well. Like I've said over and over again though, all the teams ahead of us play each other and many will be out of the picture completely in 2-3 weeks.

    I can't say "win and we're in" anymore, but "win and we're probably in" is still true. In a nutshell though, we want:

    - Tenn and KC to keep winning
    - Everyone else in the AFC to take a few losses
     
    Irishman and Unlucky 13 like this.
  13. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

    44,107
    47,829
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    At this point, we basically want NE to win their next two games as well. Give IND and BUF losses.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  14. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,191
    32,697
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Why is Bill Belichick such a good #$##ing coach! I don't want them to get the first round bye in the playoffs. I can't take another Patriot super bowl.

    I thought I was free.

    This is the worst timeline.
     
    Irishman, Puka-head and Unlucky 13 like this.
  15. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

    44,107
    47,829
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    [​IMG]
     
    Ophinerated and Dol-Fan Dupree like this.
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,804
    12,039
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I'm not 100% convinced of that- there's a very good path with NE losing their next two as well (w/ Bills taking the division thanks to us in week 18). We'll know what to root for after the Indy/NE game though!
     
    Irishman and Puka-head like this.
  17. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

    2,278
    2,226
    113
    Jul 8, 2020
    Chiefs and Chargers going into OT. We need KC to win tonight.
     
  18. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    4,120
    3,307
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    New York
    Good job Chiefs.

    Thank you Chargers for going for it on every 4th down and not kicking any field goals.
     
  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,191
    32,697
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    Leaving 9 points off the board does her
     
    Unlucky 13 and Silverphin like this.
  20. Ophinerated

    Ophinerated Preposterous!

    8,672
    798
    113
    Apr 1, 2008
    This is a game that Sparano would have won if he was coaching the Chargers.... maybe. No way in hell he doesn't try all three field goals, maybe even sneak in a fourth to negate at least one of the Chargers TDs.
     
    Dol-Fan Dupree likes this.
  21. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

    44,107
    47,829
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    The Chargers losing staves off the absolute worst case scenario for the Fins, and means that they should still be alive heading into the Tennessee game if they can win the next two weeks. It also solidifies that we root for KC to win out with no conflicts there.
     
    KeyFin and Irishman like this.
  22. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    3,736
    2,003
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Yeah, I'd rather see the Colts and Bills beat the Pats and we get the chance to knock them out of the playoffs in the final week. At the very least (if Miami lost a game before then) we could keep them from winning the division, but getting that last wildcard spot while keeping NE out entirely would be SO awesome.

    I know Miami fans can't have nice things, but I can at least dream, right?
     
    KeyFin, Puka-head and Irishman like this.
  23. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

    928
    698
    93
    Sep 29, 2016
    I know the Colts losing helps the Fins, but man, it’s hard to root for the Patriots.

    PS. Jonathan Taylor and Quentin Nelson are beasts. Miami would be infinitely better with those 2 players.
     
    Dol-Fan Dupree likes this.
  24. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

    4,595
    2,152
    113
    Sep 22, 2009
    delaware
    Not necessarily.If the colts win and Bills can beat pats next week and of course we continue to win week 18 will be for last wildcard spot and we win we have tiebreaker.
     
    KeyFin and Fishhead like this.
  25. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

    928
    698
    93
    Sep 29, 2016
    Depends on which Bills team shows up. Hard to figure them this year, except against us, of course.
     
  26. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

    4,595
    2,152
    113
    Sep 22, 2009
    delaware
    That is true!
     
  27. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    3,736
    2,003
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Looks like the Pats were not quite ready for this game. Colts up 17-0 and Wac Jones just tossed a bad INT inside the Red Zone. The Bills should be inspired against the Panthers if the Pats go on to lose this one, as they look to a showdown game with the Pats after that.
     
  28. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    4,120
    3,307
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    New York
    Without Belichick the Patriots are probably a below .500 team. I've never seen a less talented team at 9-4.

    Them being underdogs in this game on a 7 game winning streak with every media outlet saying they're going to the Super Bowl says alot about what oddsmakers think of them.

    If Buffalo wins this week I think Vegas has them as favorites in New England next week.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  29. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

    44,107
    47,829
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    If tonight's score holds, then it looks like next weeks Bills/Pats game becomes as important for Miami as any of our own remaining games. A Bills win, and we're still very much alive. A Patriots win, and we might be as good as dead even if we finish at 10-7.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  30. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,650
    4,553
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    Mac Jones playing like the rookie he is tonight so far. I want to see what the Colts are doing to him for us to do to Zach Wilson and the Jests.
     
    Unlucky 13 likes this.
  31. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

    44,107
    47,829
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    101 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT since the start of last week's game.
     
  32. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

    10,777
    4,250
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Patriots are getting dog-walked right now. Figures, the one time I want them to win...
     
  33. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    3,736
    2,003
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Yeah, we really need the Bills to win that game or else BOTH the Bills and Pats take up playoff spots. Way too many games to be played before things shake out though, so I'm just going to enjoy a game where Wac Jones actually HAS to pass for them to win.
     
  34. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

    44,107
    47,829
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Ever since we were swept by the Bills, the odds were we wouldn't get into the playoffs instead of them. It just wasn't going to happen. We lose any tiebreaker. But if they can beat NE next week, then we still have the potential of sweeping NE and having the better AFC East record compared to the Patriots in our back pocket.
     
  35. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    3,736
    2,003
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    One more step toward the playoffs for Miami. Colts hold on to win 27-17 and set up an epic game in New England next weekend. Next week will have games being played most every day, so the playoff picture for Miami will change early and often.
     
  36. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    10,540
    9,079
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    Winning out is even more important now for us. If we win out and the Patriots finish the season 10-7 with us, we'll own the tie breaker as we will have swept them...so if it comes down to us or the Patriots for the "final" playoff spot, it would be ours.
     
  37. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

    44,107
    47,829
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Yeah, after the last week, the hope of somehow sneaking in at 9 wins is dead.
     
  38. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    3,736
    2,003
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Not getting as much help as I'd hoped so far -but maybe that Titans game won't be as tough as most think? Miami just needs to keep winning and odds are still good it all falls into place.
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

    9,470
    11,343
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Titans are in freefall (relatively speaking). Without Henry they're just average, and Tannehill is solidly below average this year. They also play SF next and that's likely a loss for them too. I think 9-7 is now likely. That NE game will be the decider.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  40. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

    44,107
    47,829
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Well, we didn't lose.

    Julio Jones got hurt again for TEN. Might make that game a little easier for us in two weeks.
     
    KeyFin likes this.

Share This Page