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Dolphins Playoff Paths

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Nov 29, 2021.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The way I see it, the Colts aren't slowing down- let them take the division, and then our win against the Titans will ensure that's one more name out of the playoff race against us.
     
  2. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Titans are a flawed team. Even if there guys come back they won't be at 100%. Miami could put the nail on Tennessee's season in two weeks.

    Let's gooooooooooooooo
     
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  3. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, the Colts win versus the Pats combined with the Titans loss to the Steelers has opened up the division title in the AFC South. Beating the Titans and getting that tie breaker while the Colts win the division is a great scenario for Miami.

    Of course, everything could change next weekend, so.... just enjoy the ride.
     
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  4. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Watching Cincy-Denver on one screen and GB - Ravens on the other. Huntley is playing well. Good back up. But I hope he fails. LoL
     
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  5. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I’m just glad we’re still in the car.
     
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  6. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    I am very proud of this team.
     
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  7. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Two weeks is an eternity in the NFL. There’s speculation that Henry could be back by the time we play them
     
  8. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Green Bay and Baltimore is tied. I got a chance to go to a couple games in GB. I’m rooting for them.
     
  9. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Loch coming for Bridgewater, I hope he’s ok, didn’t look good, has played consistent. Under control. He’s been around. Beat Cincy. I hate this Fs.
     
  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Update on our playoff race odds- as of today, our playoff chances are 79% if we win the next 3.

    The odds are going down each week and I can see why some may be concerned, but there's one MASSIVE game next week. If the Bills beat the Pats, then our odds jump to over 98%. If the Pats win, then our odds drop to 61%. So that's the most important game remaining this season other than our own three games.

    For the remaining games this week, we want-

    Broncos over Bengals
    Packers over Ravens
    Raiders over Browns
     
  11. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Bungles beat the Broncos.
    Crows lost to Green Bay.
     
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  12. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    How insane is it that with three weeks left in the season, we're two games behind the #2 seed in the AFC but also might need a miracle to make the playoffs?
     
  13. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    It's insane how things turned on a dime for us. Not sure why I'm surprised, seeing as we start poorly every year under Flo so far before putting it together to close out the season. But since the trade deadline passed, everything flipped 180°. Body language is completely different and now. Defense is making plays it missed before. Offense is overcoming its many shortcomings. Tua's gone from being a bust and an afterthought to being considered a team leader and decent pro, even by his reluctant critics.

    I'll be surprised if we make the playoffs. Our play in the first half of the season was embarrassing, but I'm proud of the effort I'm seeing each week.
     
  14. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    That's it. The end of the world as we know it!
     
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  15. Alan in England

    Alan in England Member

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    We have been through the soft part of the schedule. Looking at the last 3 games I can see all ending in defeat
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I can see all ending in victory too. Not sure how people can look at the glass as half empty right now. Just 6 weeks ago there was a flood of posts here saying this team might go down as the worst or one of the worst in franchise history. People were saying we'd be lucky to win 4 games total. We're now 7-7 and squarely in the playoff race, albeit with some luck needed to make it in.

    Right now NO is favored -3.5. That's basically home field advantage. Vegas is saying both teams are evenly matched more or less, but home field favors NO. No need to think this is where the win streak ends. And Tennessee is at best an average strength team right now after losing Henry. They're 3-3 without Henry and 1-3 in their last 4 games. Why think we're going to lose to them?

    NE will be tough, but if we're sitting 9-7 and needing that last win for the playoffs and playing at home, at worst we will only be slight underdogs. So I'm seeing us finishing 9-8 or 10-7, and that would be a pretty successful season given the development of Tua, proof our defense last year wasn't a fluke, and the first back-to-back winning seasons since 2003.

    So look on the bright side. It's warranted given the Dolphins' recent play.
     
  17. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Why are you feeling so miserable, Alan?
     
  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I've been playing with the playoff calculator this morning and found a few key games/scenarios. If we win out, we have about an 82% chance of making the playoffs. What would bump that to 99%?
    • The Bills beat the Pats next week OR
    • The Bills lose week 17 OR week 18
    Other playoff scenarios hinge on:
    • The Colts OR the Chargers lose two AND
    • The Ravens, Browns & Steelers lose 1
    The easiest path revolves around the Bills- they beat the Pats, or they lose to the Falcons or Jets. We can hit on any of the three and we're a lock with three wins.

    For us to win the division, we'd need:

    - Dolphins W, W, W
    - Pats lose two (including the loss to us)
    - Bills lose two

    That doesn't feel impossible at this point- the Jets team we played yesterday could end the year shocking the Bills.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2021
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  19. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    Honestly, I still think that 82% number is high. If the Patriots beat the Bills, I had to work really hard to find a combination of outcomes that ended up with us in the playoffs. It's not impossible, but I think it's far from being as likely as that number suggests.
     
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  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, if the Pats win/Bills lose next week, then I almost think we're better off hoping to take the division- which would mean a week 17 loss for the Pats and the Bills also losing to Atlanta or NY. So we'd only need two additional games to swing our way & we'd have to take care of business as well.
     
  21. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

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    First things first. We need to beat a Saints team that has new life, is fighting for a playoff spot, and just pitched a shutout on the defending champs. We’ll need all hands on deck for this game.
     
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  22. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It might be a trap game for the Saints. Beating the world champs and then playing "just the Dolphins" might be a huge let down. They only scored 9 points so it's not like they lit it up against them.
     
  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I guarantee you that nobody's saying, "It's just the Dolphins" right now.

    The last team to do that in a primetime game was Baltimore. We all know how that one turned out.
     
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  24. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Not sure who we need to win this Raiders-Browns game? Either way it helps Miami, but getting the Raiders to 8 losses gets rid of the tie breaker they have on us. I think the Browns would still be ahead of Miami if they lose, but one step closer to being out of the playoff race with some tough games left.
     
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  25. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    There isn't a clear answer. A ton of things still up in the air. Other than our own games, the only ones that are crystal right now are that we need the Bills to beat the Patriots and for the Chiefs to beat everyone that they play. We'll know a lot more a week from now.
     
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  26. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    It seems like every year, we need 15 things to go our way so we can make the playoffs. Will they happen this year?
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Raiders have 7 losses and three super tough games after this week, so I'm rooting for them to hand the Browns their 7th loss. But it's really a tossup which one gives us more advantage- it shouldn't be critical to us either way.
     
  28. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    One key is that having lost to Vegas head to head and with them having a better AFC record than Cleveland, we would potentially be more likely to lose a tiebreaker to them.
     
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  29. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Raiders get the W. The Browns have the Packers coming up, so that should take care of them and the Raiders have 3 hard games left with only one loss putting them behind Miami.

    BTW, the Bills-Pats game seems to swing the odds for Miami, as was mentioned above. We need the Bills to win that one and in exchange Miami will hand the Bills the division with a win over the Pats.
     
  30. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Look at all these people playing 3-D chess
     
  31. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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  32. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    It would be a crying shame for these men to win the final nine games of the season and be looking in from the outside.
     
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  33. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    The team would get a ton of good press and good vibes all Spring and Summer long headed into 2022, though. That would be a welcome change.
     
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  34. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I hope we win them all but I’d be ecstatic if we went 9-8. That shows right and some talent developing. Better fix the OL in FA, so you can protect Tua and make a playoff run. I’d love to see a RB taken in the 2nd round.
     
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  35. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    If we finish 9-8, I'll be happy. Not that we didn't make the playoffs, but that we have established a culture of winning after two decades of sub-mediocre play. Hopefully, Grier & Flo don't jettison team leaders to make a point to the locker room. Sometimes, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts and my fellows don't seem to understand that.

    I honestly believe that our areas of opportunity are so obvious, we can easily be a top-3 AFC team next season just by not getting too smart. Fix what's broken.
     
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  36. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    With a really good off-season and draft, Miami could be a preseason favorite in the AFC.
     
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  37. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Would love to see Gesicki and Ogbah resigned. Problem is will you have to pay Gesicki WR or TE money?

    You need to bring in a veteran OT. Invest in the RB position in the 2nd round. First pick needs to be an OL unless someone falls.
     
  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I completely agree, except that the Raiders can't win out with their schedule...there's just no way for them to avoid that 8th loss. Cleveland, on the other hand, shouldn't win out either. So I think both these teams are out of the playoff race completely in a few weeks.
     
  39. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  40. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I actually figured out a path to the playoffs at 9-8 that involved both the Raiders and Browns going 2-1 over the final three weeks. It worked with them going 1-2 as well, but they both need to win in Week 18 (vs the Chargers and Bengals) for it to work.

    In this scenario, Miami, Denver and LA are all 9-8, and the Fins win the tiebreak. They also win the tiebreak when you throw in Vegas and Cleveland. We do not win the tiebreak over the Colts, but in this scenario, they're making it in whether they go 3-0 or 1-2 the rest of the way. This also works for Miami no matter which of the three games they lose, as long as its just one. The important thing is that the Bengals finish 0-3, so Cincy is the key to us having a chance with one more loss.
     
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