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Dolphins Playoff Paths

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Nov 29, 2021.

  1. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  2. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    An interesting thing about that is that the Jets had 195 yards in the first half.
     
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  3. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    Yeah, the second half was filled with big plays, big losses and turnovers for the Jets, and it all evened out to almost nothing.
     
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  4. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I consider 1994 to be the last really good Dolphins team. Always hoping that we can get back to that point.
     
  5. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    I was at the first game against New England, in the rain. Marinos fist game back after the Achilles injury. We had such an exciting team back then. Then there was the playoff game where Stoyonovich missed the game winning field goal against the Chargers.
     
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  6. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    Well, I don't blame Stoyo for that game. We had a nearly three TD lead at halftime, then everything went to crap. So close to the AFC CG. MUCH closer than we've been since any point after that.
     
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  7. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    This is encouraging.
     
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  8. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I don't think that they were as bad as they looked in the first half, nor are they as good as they have more recently (mostly vs very week competition). They're essentially now middle of the pack in most categories, and I think thats about the real talent level too.
     
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  9. Big Phin

    Big Phin Active Member

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    The fact we can even have this thread is mind-blowing. A few weeks back, if you had told me that the phins would even be in the conversation, I'd ask for some of the hard juice you were drinking. heck, just win out and let the chips fall where they may. It would be one of the biggest turnarounds in NFL history.
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In week 8, I was literally the only person on this site saying the Dolphins were a good team going through some growing pains. They were so close in so many of those early losses...this team today probably would have won 4 or 5 of those games as well.

    Winning out will be super tough- but the Saints don't have much of an offense and the Titans are starting to spiral. Then the Pats at home...we always beat the Pats at home! So I'm trying not to get ahead of myself, but I think we have a real shot at winning out.
     
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  11. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    We definitely have a chance. And I'm the eternal optimist (which most of us must be at this point in team history) but until a couple of weeks ago, I had no hope that we'd make it back to .500.

    Even now, I'm just looking ahead to this week's game, not the playoffs. IMO, we're in our personal playoff because we have to assume that one loss will effectively knock us out of the tournament. The good news is that if we can win the next three games, we'll have a "next game up" mentality that we'll need as well as the confidence of beating New England (twice), Tennessee and Baltimore. Let's just win this weekend.
     
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  12. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    I waited until we got to 7-7 before getting excited about our chances. OL back to basics and doing well enough? Running game taking a leap forward? Parker finally healthy and performing. We are peaking at the right time and Monday nights game should be electric.

    Buffalo will win this weekend. The pressure will be on to win with a playoff path fully opened before us. And I'm expecting a game similar to week 1 with a winning result. Let's go!!!
     
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  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's the biggest hurdle, because if Buffalo loses this weekend, then we need them to lose again (to Atlanta or the Jets) while New England loses to us AND the Jaguars. That makes us division champs but man, that's a TOUGH road to hope for. We really need Buffalo to man-up and take this game.

    There are some other paths where NE, Buffalo, and Miami makes the playoffs, but that's not what we want to root for with three weeks left and us hoping to win all three. It would be crazy if we ended up on a 9-game win streak and still miss out...it would be almost criminal.
     
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  14. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    What is the situation if Miami wins out, beating Tennessee in the process. Tennessee loses to the 49ers on Thursday, beats the Texans.

    They're both 10-7.

    I guess my question is who wins the division if the Colts and Titans go 10-7?
     
  15. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    It looks like if it goes down like that for Tennessee and they both finish 10-7, the Titans win the division. They swept Indy this season, and in this scenario would have the same AFC record.

    If that happened, they would both be ahead of the Dolphins in the AFC pecking order, regardless of who else is 10-7. Miami is going to be behind both of them and Buffalo. We also aren't going to win tiebreakers with the Bengals.
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I updated the main thread with who to root for this week and other scenarios:

    Currently, the Dolphins have around a 9% chance of making the playoffs. If we win all three of our remaining games then our playoff chances jump to 83%.

    Big games we're rooting for this week and the associated odds changes with three Miami wins-
    • Bills over Pats (99% to make playoffs)
    • Texans over Chargers (92%)
    We are MASSIVE Bills fans for the next three days since that's the easiest path- Bills beat NE, we win 3, we're in regardless and the Pats are the odd man out.

    To win the division, we need to win three and we need the Pats and Bills to both lose two. So if the Bills lose this week, that's about 2nd easiest path moving forward...we would need them to also lose to Atlanta or the Jets while the Pats pick up an additional loss (besides us) as well.

    If you want to look at the final wildcard slot route without the Bills helping us, here are the teams currently ahead of us and the losses we'd need to advance. (note- we need 4 of these things to happen, not all of them).
    • Colts/Titans (need one or the other to lose two- we play the Titans)
    • Chargers (I THINK needs to lose 1...we have the tie-breaker?)
    • Pats (need to lose 2- we play the Pats)
    • Ravens (need to lose 1)
    • Steelers (need to lose 1)
    • Raiders (need to lose 1)
    Based on schedules, the Ravens, Steelers and Raiders should all lose one more. That puts us in the 8th spot if we win out...one slot shy of the playoffs. So we need one team out of the Colts, Titans, Bills or Pats to pick up two losses over the next three games or the Chargers to lose one (I THINK we have the tie-breaker over the Chargers...someone smart check my math here).

    Finally, let's talk about the Titans. They're 9-5 and we have to beat them for these playoff calculations, so let's just call them 9-6. If the Colts win this week (currently 8-6), that places them in a tie w/ the Titans & the Titans own the tiebreaker. But if the Titans lose twice (once to us), then we have the tie-breaker over them and they don't take the division...so they'd be the odd man out.

    However, the Titans winning tonight doesn't "kill our chances", it just makes one of the potential paths a lot harder to become reality. We want every potential opportunity to remain open, so I'm hoping for a Titans loss here.

    The big game, the only game that really matters besides ours, is the Bills beating the Pats. The rest are the teams ahead of us playing each other and thinning the pack.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2021
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  17. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    The Titans win tonight makes the Bills-Pats game even more important to Miami's chances. Knocking out the Pats in week 18 seems like the most viable path to the playoffs for Miami and the other paths rely on bad teams pulling off an upset or two (not that it can't happen, but the odds are low).
     
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  18. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    Can you all sense the inevitable? We will miss out of the playoffs by 1 game.

    that jaguars egg cost is so much looking back!!
     
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  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Based on the Titans winning, we now want:
    • Cardinals over Colts
    • Texans over Chargers
    • Bills over Pats
    • Broncos over Raiders
    For next weekend, we want:
    • Falcons over Bills
    • Chiefs over Bengals
    • Raiders over Colts
    • Broncos over Chargers
    • Rams over Ravens
    If you notice, there's several teams we want to win this weekend, yet we want them to lose the following weekend. That's how close this playoff race is.
     
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  20. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the update. I'm microwaving a couple of voodoo dolls as we speak and hope they'll be ready for the games tomorrow. Meanwhile, this all becomes moot if we lay an egg against a team so hamstrung, it contacted Drew Brees to gauge his interest in coming back. In a season of disappointing games, a loss on Monday against a team playing with its QB4 and without a dozen contributors would be the Redwood branch that broke the camel's back. My psyche can't process how low that would send it.
     
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  21. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

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    With a Colts loss the Titans wrap up their division, that would be one less thing they would playing for next week.
     
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  22. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    The Cards suck, they faced a near-total replacement OL of the Colts and couldn't force any real mistakes from Wentz. Murray stayed in the pocket most of the game, no idea why, and they couldn't move the ball.

    The Bills-Pats game is even more important now, as it may end up the only path to the playoffs for Miami.
     
  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Okay, I did a little homework once Christmas died down at our house:
    • Miami holds the tie-breaker over the Broncos, Chargers, Browns and Ravens.
    • If the Colts lose next week, we have a tie-breaker over them as well
    • Miami loses the tie-breaker to the Raiders and Bills
    • Miami also loses the tie-breaker to Steelers, but we won't tie them anyway since they're 7-6-1
    Long story short, a lot of names above will fall behind us with one more loss (including the Steelers). We have to take care of business on our end though and win the last three- I really do think we're still in a "win and you're in" scenario.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2021
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  24. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I agree with you. Honestly, if we win the next two games and most of the rest of the AFC games go to the favorite, we should be in a win-and-in situation in Week 18 because we'd have swept the Patriots.

    We just can't tie with the Bengals for the Wildcard. We want them to either win their division or have 9 or fewer wins.
     
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I just can't stress how hard it is to win out in December, even with a team on a 6-game win streak. The Saints are a fringe playoff team that's beat up and even then, winning that game is not a guarantee. The Titans are always a serious threat and the Pats...well, they're the Pats.

    If we do manage to beat all three, our fans need to realize that we are a serious deep-playoff threat this season. I know it may not look like it with our hodge-podge offense, but three more wins and team are going to be outright scared of us.
     
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  26. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    if that happens I would agree with you. However nothing over the last 15 years has showed me when the games matter we show up. I’ll be rooting for the impossible but I feel we could easily lose the next three games.
     
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  27. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    Bills beating Patriots at half
    Cincy beating Ravens at half.

    both good things.

    surprisingly the Texans are playing the Chargers hard today!! Could we get a gift ?
     
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  28. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    That would be a gift. In the past, in these situations, nothing has ever gone our way
     
  29. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Just read a tweet that said that if Buffalo, Cincinnati and Houston win their games, we control our destiny. Haven't seen it anywhere else.
     
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  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We could technically come out of Monday night as the #7 seed with a win and those three losses. Here's a quick recap though:

    If we win out and:
    • Buffalo wins today, we have a greater than 99% of being in
    • Texans win today, we have a 92% chance of being in
    • These are either/or...we don't technically need both to happen.
    Buffalo and Texas should have enough of a lead to close their games out, so yes, we are pretty much 100% in control of our own destiny in the next 30-40 minutes. If Cinci wins and the Steelers lose, we're #7.
     
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  31. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    That was a fumble, creepy Kraft still buying calls
     
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  32. Berezo

    Berezo Well-Known Member

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    What does Houston beating LAC do for us today?
     
  33. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Well, it adds at least two extra pages to the "Tua Is Not The Problem" thread.
     
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  34. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Looking as if the three things we needed to happen have all occurred. BuffaLOL just needs to not blow the game in Foxboro. What an incredible day.
     
  35. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If we win, the Chargers would be behind us in the playoff rankings, and so would the Ravens with their loss. The Pats are still ahead of us at the moment but if we do win out, then we'd eliminate them from the playoffs in week 18.

    Also, if the Bills somehow lose the next two, we'd be playing the Pats for the division title in week 18.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2021
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  36. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    According to the ESPN Playoff Machine, a Steelers loss and Miami win puts us in the #7 playoff spot? The Denver-Raider game won't affect that no matter who wins it seems.

    That Houston win was unexpected, but quite the gift for the Dolphins and makes up for the Colts win yesterday. Still a tough road ahead just winning out, but it was a good day for Miami's chances.
     
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  37. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    What a beautiful day
     
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  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes, a Miami win + a Steelers loss gives us the 7th seed.

    If the Colts lose next week (and we win), we're the 6th seed.

    Once we spank the Pats in week 18, we're the 5th seed.

    I'm not going to look at options for us to make it at 9-8, but I believe that door may have opened today with several key upsets. For now though, win and we're in...we're 100% in control of our destiny. And as I said earlier, if the Bills lose to the Falcons and the Jets, we're playing for the division in week 18.

    The stars have aligned- we just need to win three football games and the rest doesn't matter.
     
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  39. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    Steelers putting up zero resistance.
    Nothing more than a speed bump the CHeifs are running over.
     
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  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Even if the Steelers somehow won today, they have two more ultra-tough games and are not winning out. So this is solely about this week's rankings and not the overall, big picture.

    At this point, if Miami wins three games, we have a 100% chance of making the playoffs. Win & we're in regardless.
     

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