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Dolphins Playoff Paths

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Nov 29, 2021.

  1. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    He has no axe to grind. Maybe had he had surgery on his knee instead of rehabbing it, he might have avoided reinjuring it. But you're right, we gave him plenty of opportunities and it worked out better for him than us.
     
  2. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Hmmm, I’m just going to say this…

    Ryan Tannehill is the starting quarterback on a team that’s going to the playoffs for the 3rd year ina row.

    Joe Philbin is not a head coach and if I’m not mistaken, none of his subordinate coaches are on a playoff team.

    Adam Gase is not a head coach and none of his subordinate coaches are on a playoff team.

    Coincidence?
     
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  3. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think Brian Daboll coached under Philbin for a bit.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No coincidence obviously. But to win the SB it's almost certainly going to take a QB that can overcome adversity, which clearly Tannehill cannot. Just see his performance without Henry. So sure if you put together the right pieces around an otherwise average/slightly above average QB you can make the playoffs and occasionally (e.g., 2019) see great performances from the QB. But the Titans aren't going to win the SB with a QB like Tannehill, or at least the odds are FAR lower than with a QB like Mahomes, Rodgers or Brady, etc. (personally I think it'll be one of those 3 or possibly the newcomer Murray that wins it this year).

    That's why I can't be satisfied with Tua if his ceiling is just slightly above average. He has to be able to carry the team to wins often enough. Unlike some others though I think he has a good chance of developing into that kind of QB.
     
  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yup, this is his first time playing us. But since most of us are also fans, we know exactly how to beat him- weak-side pressure leading to strip sacks. Our defense is ideal for a QB like Tannehill and I have a feeling that we'll never let him get into a rhythm, we'll be sending the hounds and letting them feast. It's going to be a very bad day for Tannehill.
     
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  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's just not how our team is built right now though- we're completely shutting teams out in the 2nd half. Tua's job is not to carry us to a win; it's to score more than our defense allows. Last night, that was zero points- New Orleans scored 3 and our defense scored 7.

    I get what you're saying- a Tampa or a KC will drop 20-30 on us, and in those games Tua has to outplay that pace. But I also hope people realize that we scored 20 last night by design- we weren't trying to drop 50 and force Tua into bad situations. Even though it was a conservative, boring game, it was also how winning football is played when you're blowing out your opponent.
     
  7. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    RT17 is easily one of my favorite Dolphins of all time. I'm really glad to see him do so well in Tennessee, playing the way I always thought he could if uses properly.

    That said, I of course want the Dolphins to win this week. Ideally, a game where our offense plays exceptionally well and we just outscore them.
     
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  8. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Tannehill wants revenge for being traded to a better team!
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This year we have no other choice but to hope we are a repeat of the Ravens 2000 team. But damn you got to increase the probabilities, and statistically SB winning offenses tend to be one of the best in the league (average is about 1 standard deviation above the mean, which for QBs in 2021 translates to about 102 rating). We can't bank on a Ravens 2000 style winning out in the future.
     
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  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    One year…2011 and then went on to coach under Andy Reid in KC, Bill Belichick in New England, Nick Saban at Alabama before landing in Buffalo.

    I get your point with the correction, but I wouldn’t consider him a “Philbin” coach. Know what I mean?
     
  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, this defense is not going to play that type of game, LOL. Once we have the slightest of leads, we'll unleash the beasts and force RT to beat us over the middle...or take his chances with Jones/X. I love Tannehill as much as anyone, but I think he's in for a tough afternoon.
     
  12. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    This defense has to beat Ryan Tannehill without his blankie and Mac Jones.

    I'm feeling great this morning.
     
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  13. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Certainly not a Philbin tree coach. Actually the offense seemed to perk up a bit when Daboll was here. I was sorry to see him leave but, looking back on it, he probably saw the Philbin organization as the clown show that it was and moved on to greener pastures.
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Playing around with that playoff simulator it seems more likely we'll play the Titans again in the first round than any other team. The 2nd most likely looks like the Bills, at least when I fool around with that thing. So figuring out how to beat the Titans could be doubly useful. It might be the ticket to the divisional rounds of the playoffs.
     
  15. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    The Titans without Henry and WITH him are two different teams. Looks like he'll be back for their week 18 game or the Wildcard playoff round. Henry might still be shaking the rust off though, so I like those odds better than having to go back into Buffalo.
     
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  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's almost too early to predict:
    • Miami is currently #7. If we lose either game, we're likely out of the playoffs.
    • Beating the Pats makes us #6
    • If Titans lose two OR if Indy loses this week, we'd be #5
    • If Buffalo loses two, we'd be #4 (AFC East Champs)
    • If all that stuff happened and the Bengals also lose 1, we'd be #3
    So the seeding is really still wide open if we win both these games. My guess is we win both and take the #6 seed, which has us playing the Bengals or Titans.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2021
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  17. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

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  18. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    I love my dolphins I do but Im not a very optimistic fan lately. I just find it very hard to accept we win both these last games in fact I feel we might actually lose both. If that happens and we sit one game out of playoff I would feel like this is the team I know and we played against bad teams to get back to .500 and that’s a testament to Flores pulling this back together so he stays no matter what now next year.

    However the most likely scenario is we steal one win. Where does that put us in the playoff hunt? Do we have to win out in order to be in or can we get in with 1 more win and someone losing?
     
  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If we only win one, we'd need 4 other AFC teams in the playoff hunt to lose one as well (Baltimore, Pitt, Raiders, etc.).
     
  20. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I played around with the predictor a bit this morning, and it seems like it would be extremely difficult for the Fins to make it with another loss, unfortunately. The main issue is that the Chargers and Raiders play one another in Week 18, and whoever wins that game would be ahead of us in the standings. If we could hope that they both lose out, it would be a lot more plausible.

    And so as far as I can figure it, there are only two paths to the Dolphins getting in at 9-8.

    1) We lose to Tennessee, beat New England, and the Patriots also lose this week vs Jacksonville.

    2) We win either of the last two games, and the Raiders and Chargers tie in Week 18.

    And so, a loss this weekend coupled with a Patriots win would for all intents and purposes, end our year.
     
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  21. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    thanks that’s what I think happens we lose one of these last two games and that jags loss kills us.
     
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  22. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    If one of the Raiders or Chargers lose this week it doesn't require a tie. Neither can go 2-0.

    Fivethirtyeight has Miami at 7% chance with a loss tomorrow so longshot but could be worse
     
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  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    OK. The playoff predictor that I use said that if both the Chargers and Raiders lost this week while the Fins lost either of their last two games and the Patriots beat Jacksonville, then it didn't matter who won their week 18 game, that team got in instead of the Fins.
     
  24. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    As I've seen it, Miami can get into the playoffs with these two paths:

    The Dolphins will make the playoffs if ...

    They go 2-0.

    Or if they go 1-1 and ...

    -- Denver beats the L.A. Chargers in Week 17
    -- Cleveland beats Pittsburgh in Week 17
    -- Cincinnati beats Cleveland in Week 18
    -- Pittsburgh beats Baltimore in Week 18
    -- L.A. Chargers beat Las Vegas in Week 18

    A bunch of 9-8 teams is the result and Miami has the tiebreaker on the group. That said, most of these games seem to be coin flips, so the odds would be very low the second path works out. Just win and the rest doesn't matter.

    Edit: I ran this through the ESPN simulator and it checks out. Miami would be the 7th seed at 9-8.
     
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  25. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    I think the Chargers have to go specifically 1-1. They need a messy 3 or more tie.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah this isn't that simple guys. You HAVE to use a simulator here. You can't go to a site like ESPN: http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine where they let you choose the outcome of certain matchups and then update the SEED. That will almost never give you an accurate picture because so much can depend on the results of all the other matchups.

    You HAVE to use simulators that randomly select the outcomes of all games you didn't select. Simulators will disagree amongst themselves because they make different assumptions about the probability of any team winning any matchup but this is the only (relatively) accurate way of figuring out whether we can make the playoffs in one or another scenario.

    As Fireland said, with FiveThirtyEight if you only select one game — Miami losing against Tennessee — there's a 6-7% chance we still get in using their model's assumptions about the probability of other teams winning. Same at NY Times but in general it will be different.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...phins-nfl-playoff-picture.html#ten-mia-17=win

    But the scenarios people are posting saying those are the ONLY ones aren't in general accurate.
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here's how I got us to a 100% chance at 9 wins. We lose either game and:

    This week:
    • Rams over Ravens
    • Bengals over Chiefs
    • Broncos over Chargers
    • Browns over Steelers
    Next week:
    • Steelers over Ravens
    • Chargers over Raiders
    I'm not rooting for this though since it's a cluster-<beep> hoping for six games to fall exactly the way we need. We will beat the Titans this week, and for now that's all that matters.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2022
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  28. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    I only use ones that let my personally select every single game left to be played. I don't trust percentages.
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You can't try out all possibilities. There are far too many. That's why your claims about the ONLY ways the Dolphins can get into the playoffs with 9-8 are incorrect. The simulators at least try out all possibilities. The probabilities may be slightly off, but we're now 2 games away from the end of the season and those probabilities are going to be within a few percentage points accurate. So yes we should rely on simulators, not a human being trying out different possibilities.
     
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  30. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    LOL, you do you and I'll do me. Like I said, I don't rely on computer simulations.
     
  31. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Fine, but at least stop suggesting that what you find is the ONLY way we can get in. It's just inaccurate. And that's something you should care about whether you rely on yourself or a simulation.
     
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  32. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team DeVante Club Member

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    Then I'll just leave the discussion I guess. I clearly prefaced it with the phrase "As far as I can figure", meaning it was limited to my own abilities, and no one is perfect.

    I do still believe that what I posted were the only reasonable solutions.
     
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  33. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, we know the guaranteed path- two wins. We also know that one loss means we fall behind 4 or 5 teams, so each of them would also have to lose.
     
  34. Pennphinphan

    Pennphinphan AKA Pennphinfan but I forgot my login

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    One of the very few routes I'm seeing is:
    Week 17:
    Broncos over chargers
    Browns over steelers

    Week 18
    Dolphins over pats
    Steelers over ravens
    Chargers over raiders

    Other games seem mostly inconsequential. Quite the slate of hope and a prayer games
     
  35. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Dolphins winning is by far the one that seems most unlikely right now
     
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  36. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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