Dolphins reportedly ‘want’ to pay Tua Tagovailoa but aren’t sure about his fair market value

We’ve been talking about this ad nauseum in the Tua thread.

Nothing left to say, both sides want contingencies.

This whole BS statement “ the market is the market” is BS

Deal will get done, no hurry right now, got three weeks

 

If they don't sign him, it's because they agree with a lot of fans that he's not worth it. It's not rocket science. They should have brought his replacement in to avoid the drama.

 

Not a lot of fans think that

 

Fans of teams that employ Lawrence, Goff, Jackson, Herbert, et al also think those teams overpaid for their QB. I wouldn't say it's "a lot", however. Same with the fans of the Dolphins. I don't think the Dolphins have a problem with the amount, and they sure as hell have plenty of money in order to make a massive deal (unlike what this article claims), I think it's the small things in all of these contracts that is the sticking point.

Also, not only is this article flat out wrong about not having the money, but the writer also doesn't understand the actual money involved in the Goff and Lawrence contracts. So I wouldn't give anything else in this article much weight.

 

I didn't say 'most'. But there is a significant portion of the fan base that gets its jollies by making sure we know their disdain for #1.

 

Which you rather have TUA or Hill because you ain’t getting both. The dolphins should just ride this out till next year. Prove you’re a Super Bowl quarterback able to elevate your team and you will get paid. If not sign a veteran o and draft another.

signing TUA to a 60mlukn dollar a year deal would kill this franchise for QB who hasn’t won anything. Right or wrong that’s the truth. While you will say others got paid I don’t care I don’t see the upside with absolute perfection in his game.

 

I've got a major issue with the player as well but I’ve got to give him a chance to get it right at 26.

 

The team is set back years just the same if Tua isn't the QB going forward. "just draft another QB" is odd from fans of a team who went two decades without a good one.

They aren't going to luck into the Patrick Mahomes.

We are supposed to be excited about the idea of 32 year old Tyreek playing with some mediocre rookie QB prospect?

 

Ill take a 32 Hill who has proven everything he can in the NFL as opposed to a QB who's overpaid and handcuffs the franchise another 5 years and hasn't ONCE lifted the team on his back and won a meaningful game. Im being honest I can't think of a game that he WON it for us when anything mattered..
Its been proven before that Journeyman QB's with a dominating defense and an above average QB can win games, yes the lease is more pass happy now and its important but we every year we see retreads, and mid level QB's become stars on new teams. It's also about the coaching and I believe Mike can make another QB successful in this offense as well without spending 55 Million a year. Surely a 25 million QB can win games..

 

Doesn't happen often. In the last 30 years (from 1994) these are the SB winning QBs:

Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Brett Favre, John Elway, Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford.

Arguably only Dilfer, Johnson, Eli, Flacco, Foles and Stafford fit into your category of less than elite QBs who won SBs. The rest are some of the best QBs ever. That's 6 QBs and 7 out of 30 years, or 23% of the time you might win a SB with a QB who isn't considered elite over a longer period.

We'd be seriously hurting our chances to win a SB if we got rid of Tua hoping we'd find a good replacement. QBs are VERY important in the modern game, and Tua's our best chance right now. Yes he has to prove himself late in the season, but he's repeatedly proven naysayers wrong, and you should be willing to give him the chance to prove you wrong again regarding his late season performance. Also don't forget that statistically Tua is on the right trajectory, consistent with QBs who end up elite (no guarantee of course).

Dolphins won't make the mistake of letting Tua go. They're just trying to negotiate a contract that hedges their bets.

 

I have no problem waiting until next year to give Tua a new contract.

I imagine Tua will more than make up for what he would have made this year under a new contract, and we would be in a better position cap-wise then - I hope. - LOL

 

I call those folks "Lemmings". - LOL

 

They aren't winning a SB with a journeyman QB either so what exactly are we talking about? There options are pay Tua, Pay Dak 60 million if he is available, or blow it up. Blow it up is a legit take to have but putting this same team out there with Mac Jones or Tay Heinecke isn't.

On the subject of Tyreek Hill I would point to this post from when they acquired Tyreek Hill

You are more excited about giving money in 2026 then you were in 2022 which is fine he exceeded everyones expectations but you can't see that the reason that you view Tyreek so much more positively now is because of his chemistry with Tua. If we are to believe its just McDaniel why wouldn't we trust what he wants at QB?

 

I think they’ll get something done before the season, unless Tua wants a record breaking deal. Don’t think Grier will „break the bank“ and Tua doesn’t want to play with only one more year left, I think they’ll figure things out somehow.

 

You can't make up for lost money. Burrow got his new loot this season. So did Herbert and Hurts. The difference between Herbert's $50 million ($6 million salary, $50.6 million signing bonus) and Tua's $23 million (5th year option) will not be made up if he signs next season. The team making him prove he can play without succumbing to injury for two seasons to bag a new deal when, thanks to injuries, Herbert played 13 games (winning 5) in 2023 and Burrow played 10 (winning 5) is sure to make negotiations even tenser.

Regardless, the clear message being sent by the team is that they have much less confidence in him than Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Los Angeles, and every team that re-upped its QB in the past 5 years had in them. The team will lose if they tell him to bet on himself this season and he wins the bet.

 

I mean, if you just step back, the team doesn't seem as convinced that Tua is the integral part some on here believe him to be. If they did, wouldn't they just have backed the truck up?

I dunno, it seems weird to me.

 

If they didn't they wouldn't be negotiating. Its not an either/or between biggest contract ever and telling him to **** off.

 

I would include Aikman in your less-than-elite list. Dude is probably the most mid-QB in the HOF, was absolutely carried by the other HOF talents on those DAL teams.
It took me looking back on his seasonal stats and rewatching games to realize just how Flacco-like he was. I would argue Eli was a better QB than Aikman.

On Tua- there’s not going to be a better option for a minimum of two years; better to ride it out with a 5yr/3rd year option deal and see where the landscape is. With that the team has an overlap year to draft a player and train them or see if an unexpected FA/trade opportunity pops up yr 3-4.

Not much else makes sense, monetarily or team performance wise.

 

It's a good discussion. Aikman's stats are above average but not by much. Using z-scores (standard deviations above the mean, which automatically adjusts for era) you get 0.3516 for Aikman over his career. In today's era where ~90 is average passer rating that corresponds to about a career 95 rating, which isn't exceptional, supporting your argument.

However, there is something to be said for consistently performing well in the playoffs, at least from 1992-1995. And most subjective lists of greatest QBs in history put out by commentators include Aikman in the top 20. But yes it can be debated.

What I don't think is easy to argue is that Eli was better, at least not statistically though one has to give him props also for some great performances in the playoffs. His career z-score is actually below average at -0.1381, so something like a career 88 rating assuming average is 90.

 

Interesting. How much, if any, does z-score take into account surrounding talent?

Eli was a part of some absolutely garbage teams, whilst Aikman was surrounded by elite talent for much of his career in Dallas.

I would expect z-score to capture some amount of talent discrepancy, but wouldn’t that potentially give support to Eli doing more with less? Or perhaps those SB Giants teams were such large outliers in other ways that, much like Johnson with the Bucs, they were able to make his mediocrity completely irrelevant.

Though it has to be said Eli —>Tyree is likely the most improbable play of any SB.

 

z-score adjusts for era but not for variation within era, which in plain English means that it doesn't adjust for surrounding cast or opponent strength. I can adjust for defense (not offensive surrounding cast however), and you're right that the discrepancy narrows in that case. The best-fitting line between z-score passer rating and z-score points allowed has a slope of 0.3043, so one can use that to adjust the passer rating z-score for the often-elite defense Aikman played with.

Result: Aikman goes down to 0.0888 while Eli goes up to -0.056. That difference is now about 2 passer rating points rather than 6-7, so that does show the two might be more similar than without adjustment, though keep in mind that's just one adjustment without incorporating others. I can't adjust for surrounding cast on offense because there aren't enough stats to do that, and while it's possible to adjust for opponent strength I don't have the program set up to do that.

btw.. one thing that does argue for both of them being better than some people think is how offensive points scored went way up on both teams once they played a few years. Dallas had average to bad offenses until Aikman's 3rd year (most QBs start plateauing around year 3-4) at which point they were consistently elite for the next 5 years. Eli also turned a below average offense into a top 10 offense immediately (6 out of first 8 years). Interesting discussion regardless.

 

Derailing this thread further, Aikman’s 3rd year also coincides with Smith’s breakout sophomore season, during which he had 365(!) carries & 49 catches. Dude averaged over 350 touches until 2002.

That’s where I’ll end though. Back to your normally scheduled Tua/Reek/McDaniel/Greer argumentative programming.

 

is there anyway that we could do a three year deal with TUA instead of a 5 year. I know his agent will push for that but is there a precedence or is it even possible to do?

 

Most of Grier’s big deals have been 5 yr term with a 3rd year out, meaning the team can get out of the deal at the end of the 3rd year with little issue and minimal damage. I would expect the same with Tua. If perhaps the team is as committed to him as is rumor, then a 6yr deal with a 3rd/4th yr out might also be on the table.

 

Aikman is in the HoF for the same reason Terry Bradshaw is. He wasn't an exceptional regular season QB, but he has multiple SB rings where he played at a top level in the post season.

 

Haters gonna hate

 

Please tell me you know it's not real.

 

You were the kid in school who told the other kids Santa isn't real weren't you. I'm crushed.

 

hes going to get that 5 year 250 million deal.. i think right now the discussion is, how much guarantee money will be in it.. tuas agents job is to get to as close to 200 million guaranteed (lawrence, herberts contracts).. the dolphins are probably trying to get to 160 million guaranteed like Kyler Murray..

Dont blame the dolphins for trying to protect themselves from a qb talent with a lot of injury history

 

Those numbers would be fair for both sides. The problem becomes who makes the decisions if concussions become a problem again. Remember in Jerry Maguire the hockey player laying in the hospital and all he could think about was getting on the ice for his bonus? Say Tua’s doctor says he's OK to play and the team doctors say he's done. How would that go? Injuries are cut and dry but Tua’s issues are a little more gray. Hopefully they can work something out that works for both sides.

 

I scratch my head when it comes to Tua and his injury history.

His first year as a starter, he was out for what, 4 weeks from injured ribs. Putting that into context however, he was BLINDSIDED with a blast from an unblocked Bills lineman. Kinda difficult to lay blame if you will on Tua for that. His OL got him injured.

The 2022 campaign, ok maybe his bell was rung a little too hard in the Buffalo game and maybe he shouldn’t have played that Thursday night game against the Bengals, but there were no indications of a concussion in that Buffalo game. He was sharp in the 2nd half and won against the Bills. The Thursday night game however? Wasn’t Tua tackled with a tackle that’s just been banned due to the overly violent impact of the player gets hitting the ground? Just saying.

Last season Tua was only a HANDFUL of quarterbacks that played all 17 games. So this is what causes me the head scratching on the Tua injury history.

 

Yeah I think Tua showed he's durable enough last season. The issue isn't injuries as much as postseason play (last moving goalpost left). That's what I think the Dolphins are trying to hedge themselves against.

 

Not sure whether or not you and I agree or disagree but post season play for McDaniels 1st two seasons was plagued with not only injuries but a game in KC fit for penguins.

If we could just stay healthy enough to field starters in key positions, at least the team would stand a fighting chance.

Like I’ve said many times before, playoff victories are a team stat and not an individual one. No one player can do it by himself.

 

Problem is Tua hasn't played well in many do-or-die games, including against KC. He wasn't the only one to play bad, but this isn't a case where the QB played well and the rest of the team didn't. Tua still has to prove he can be counted on to win late in the season. That's the one thing he hasn't proven yet.

It's a risk when rewarding him with a huge contract. I don't think it's a huge risk because Tua has repeatedly proven he can do things naysayers said he couldn't (including staying healthy for an entire season). But it's still a risk. Even if the Dolphins are convinced Tua is the answer at QB (privately), it's useful leverage for contract negotiations.

 

It's kind of hard to play well not only in that weather, see Mahomes in that game, but playing with less than half of your oline starting, most of the defense hurt, etc. The biggest difference between Mahomes' and Tua's play was one INT. Otherwise they played very similarly.

 

Omar being Omar: