Dolphins third-and-longing for 1st down -- South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com While the Dolphins have put together two well-balanced offensive games in a row, don't get coach Tony Sparano started on their inability to convert third-and-long situations. The Dolphins are a solid 17 of 30 on converting third downs in situations of 6 yards or less, but are a stunning 0 for 18 on third-and-7 yards or longer. They're ranked 22nd in the NFL overall in third-down efficiency with a 35.4 percent conversion rate.
That stat has got to improve if we expect to continue the climb. That is disastrous. Converting and stopping third downs has been a killer for this team for several seasons now.
The announcers made mention of their third-and-long woes during the game. Hopefully, we can clean that up a bit over the course of the season.
A reasonable question to ask would be how often we find ourselves in a 3rd and long situation in comparison to the rest of the league.
That is one area that I am willing to admit Pennington's arm is a factor...he can't zip the ball into tight spaces for a 10 yard gain when the coverage is expecting it.
He zipped hell out of the ball to Anthony Fasano in double coverage for about 20 yards from where he threw it...it hit Fasano right in the hands but unfortunately Fasano dropped it.
Then why can you count the number of button hooks, quick slants, and out patterns on 3rd down this season on 1 hand? Most of the time we are either setting up a screen, or throwing to the TE. Lets face it, if we try those plays with Penny it's a pick-6. The good news is he doesn't have delusions of granduer like Jay Fiedler used to. He won't force the ball because he knows his own deficiencies. That is what makes him good.
3rd and 7+ is very hard to convert. plus, we've been doing a good job of turning 3rd and long to 4th and short enough to go for it. im just happy about our great improvement on 3d down in general. that used to be the kiss of death to us. like everything else, im sure it will get better in time.
Where would we find that info Doc? At first glance that stat is terrible, but I know we have owned the clock and had some nice sustained drives in our two wins. The AZ game was like getting a 0 on a test. It will skew the stats in such a small sample.
Though that is a fact, we just somehow cannot execute well on 3rd Down and 7+ yards, we have down very well on 2nd downs over the last 2 games... We have converted 44% of our 2nd Down and 7+ yards for 1st Downs... that is 11 out of 25 attempts... What the announcers are not commenting on, is since the first two games we are 11/23 (48%) 3rd Down Conversions...compare to 6/25 (24%)...that is an improvement of 100%... We have also accrued 46 First Down compared to 35 in the first two games...that is an improvement of 35% per game...
Here are some Offensive and Defensive stats through week 5 from Football Outsiders... LINK: FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2008 It is free to join so you can get alot of info... Our Offensive Effeciency per play (NFL AVG)... RB yards- 4.36 (4.2); Power Runs Effecient- 77% (68%); % of Runs over 10+ yards- 20% (18%); % of Runs Stuffed- 16% (23%); Sacks-7 (10)... Yards Running thru Positions (NFL AVG)... LE- 6.1 (4.74); LT- 3.98 (4.35); Middle- 4.18 (4.1); RT- 4.74 (4.0); RE- 4.77 (3.7)... Offense Effeciency in Drives (NFL RANK)... Drives-39; Yards p/drive- 35.2 (5); Points p/drive-2.03 (10); DSR (drive success rate which will convert into TD's or FD's- .736 (5)... Defensive Effeciency in Drives (NFL RANK)... Drives- 40; Yards p/drive- 29.6 (15); Points p/drive- 1.88 (13); DSR (drive success rate which will convert to TD's or FD's- .663 (11)... Hope this will give everyone some insight as to how our team has matched to current NFL teams...
When you're averaging 4.9 yards a carry like Brown is, you won't have too many 3rd and 6s or more. Sure, their will be some where Brown has consecutive below average runs, but all in all, we'll avoid long 3rd down conversions. The deeper passing lanes will become more and more available as the WRs become more in tune with the QB, and as we aquire better WR talent.
Some More Defensive Stats... from Football Outsiders... Miami's Defensive Line Against the Run (NFL AVG/Ranking)... Ranks- #9; RB yards p/play- 3.38 (4.2/ 13); 10+ yards p/play- 8 (no avg/ 5); Stuffs 30% (23%/ 5)... Miami's Defensive Line Against the Pass (NFL AVG/Ranking)... Ranks- #7; Sacks- 11 (10 is NFL AVG); Sack Rate- 8.3% (6.6%)...
Here are some stats from my own data base (I excluded first downs by penalty, therefore the 0/17): 3rd and 6 or less: MIA DEF: 15/26 with an average of 3.31 to go. MIA OFF: 17/30 with an average of 3.07 to go. 3rd and 7 or more: MIA DEF: 4/26 with an average of 11.3 to go. MIA OFF: 0/17 with an average of 11.8 to go. I think it's obvious that opposing offenses don't look much better than our offense on long 3rd downs. Considering that teams basically wanted to have a 3rd and 10 against us the last years (sure first down), this is a very positive development. Since we have much more 3rd and 6 or less, we actually face a 3rd & 6.29 in average. Our opponents face a 3rd & 7.29 in average. That's a huge difference!
