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Dolphins v Patriots

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by josh, Dec 9, 2018.

  1. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    I got up and walked out of the bar after the field goal. As I was walking out the door everybody started yelling at me to come back. I thought I'd forgotten my phone or something. Unreal. This team just keeps finding a way.

    Don't care what any one says about Thill. He's got the biggest balls of them all. Heart of a champion.
     
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  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    ****ing right!!!

    Every time I think I've moved on, he just gives me a look, and drags me right back in.
     
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  3. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Many other QBs would be being fellated by the media about their leadership, toughness, etc if they were playing through these injuries, taking these hits. The narrative around Tannehill should be so different.
     
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  4. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    And yet they don't affect his mobility.
     
  5. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Maybe they do. It’s difficult to escape a sack when you have 30 pounds of ballsack resting next to your ankles.
     
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  6. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    First off, the offense played its butt off today, scoring 34 points against the Patriots. So much for an anemic offense.

    Secondly, my football novice wife even knows that the defense is what sucks and that Burke needs to go...and she’s not even impressed with Tannehill, but knows he’s not the problem.
     
  7. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Touche.
     
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  8. Itsdahumidity

    Itsdahumidity X gonna take it from ya

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    What a game, what a win! Anytime we can beat the pats* it's a great day. Injuries and all that was a back & forth heavyweight bout.
     
  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Dude your out of control..
     
  10. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This dudes last post..

    Grow up, you didnt even come back and ackowledge the win... cowardly.
     
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  11. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Agree on Burke and defense being a big problem this year. Disagree on THill. QB has to be better than "not the biggest problem" on the team and one game or one hot streak to end a season isn't changing that. I'm just tired of settling for 'inconsistently OK at times.' That leads us to Detroit and Stafford, JVille and Bortes, the Giants with Twilight Eli and other mediocre teams. I want a playmaker. We have playmakers on the team (see Drake, Kenyan), I do not count Tannehill in that mix. We must address QB if we want to be a legitimate threat and a regular playoff team. We can and should also address other areas of the team, notably on defense, regardless of who the GM, HC or DC are next season, but we have get over the "we can win with X as long as ...." mentality. That's not a winner mentality.
     
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  12. josh

    josh Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He's in his seventh year. So... he's at best Stafford without the gaudy stats until he wins a playoff game.
     
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  13. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Felt good to be a Dolphins fan for once.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah I agree. We need a playmaker or someone managing the game at a high level, and I'm not convinced a good streak by Tannehill to end the season is indicative of how he'll perform long term.

    However, I do have to admit that if Tannehill ends this season with the efficiency stats he has right now then that does qualify (statistically) as "good enough to win a SB with". The general rule is you want to be approximately 1 standard deviation above the mean on both offense and defense with random variation around that determining where exactly you are.

    Tannehill's passer rating this year is now at 105.68 which is 0.865 standard deviations above the mean this year (standard deviation is HUGE this year at 13.7 right now.. usually it's closer to 10). That's right in the ballpark and WAY better than he's ever done. He's currently ranked #6 among starting QB's, so first time in top 10 efficiency-wise. However, I doubt he'll end up this way. He's historically been the ultimate tease and I fully expect these numbers to be lower by years end.

    But what if they're not? lol..
     
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  15. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You gotta be kidding me. With a depleted receiving corps, Tannehill was 14/19, 265 yards, 3 TDS and 0 Int.

    That’s a QBR of 155.15 but more so...

    That’s an average of 18.9 yards per completion.

    That’s a TD per 4 pass completions.

    I don’t know what the hell else you want from a quarterback. I guess Tannehill needs to don his red cape from now on
     
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  16. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    It's one game. I'm not changing my opinion based on one game. If I show you the stats from the first 2 games of Fitzmagic you'd think the dude was the second coming of Marino.

    It was a nice game, neither I nor anyone can take that away from him. But one game a career does not make.

    I am done settling. Ryan Tannehill next year is settling. I want better, I want more, and I don't give a **** if others aren't on board.
     
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  17. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores

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    In my non-football-educated opinion and for the record, I think Tannehill played his best game of the year yesterday. Especially if you take into account his lack of pocket presence. Other than that, he did really well.

    However, I think something is still off about Tannehill, Gase, and our offense. For example, look at our 3rd down percentage. It is at 32% now, but before we played the Patriots it was 33%. Last week the league average was 40%. The high was 49%, and the low was 29%. So, taking that into account we were 7% below average and ranked 29 out of 32. To me, that tells me we are still very inconsistent on offense and through stupid play calls, penalties, or poor execution we put ourselves in lousy situations that we can't get out of. Tannehill might be in the top 10 as far as ratings are concerned, but what good is that if our conversion rate is horrible. You only get so many possessions a game, so we have to maximize our opportunities. I realize, that sometimes we run the ball on 3rd down, etc., but to me a lot of our struggles fall on Tannehill's shoulders and he is partly responsible for the inconsistency because the offense runs through him. I will add that it probably could be said, Gase is more responsible because of his play calling, but that might be hard to quantify. IMO, for Tannehill to take the next step and be in the conversation as one of the league's better QB's he needs to be able to take over games and will our team to victory. The only way I see that happening is for us to play better on 1st and 2nd down and make our 3rd downs more manageable. If we don't, the odds are against us if it's 3rd and long and we won't be able to sustain drives, which can keep our defense on the field too long. I am as critical of Burke as any around here, but if our defensive guys are gassed, their poor play isn't necessary all on them. Our offense needs to do their part too. If they can learn to sustain drives, score in the red zone, and give our defense time to rest so they can get after it we might be able to really make some noise. It's a perfect time to peak, and a good time to win the game against those Vikings!
    :-).
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah Tannehill may never take over and win games for us like some other QB's do. Gase is just putting him in situations where he's not losing games for us. That's what the efficiency stats like passer rating are showing IMO.
     
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  19. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    From the Hearld:
    https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article222632535.html

    How about some factual numbers then:

    ▪ Tannehill’s near-perfect 155.2 passer rating Sunday raised his overall season rating to 105.7, which is sixth among all NFL quarterbacks. The only five NFL QBs with higher passer ratings this season: Drew Brees (120.8), Russell Wilson (115.5), Pat Mahomes (115.2), Phillip Rivers (114.5) and Matt Ryan (108.3). Among notable quarterbacks with lower passer ratings than Tannehill this year: Carson Wentz (102.2), Jared Goff (101.2), Deshaun Watson (100.9), Aaron Rodgers (99.6), Tom Brady (98.2) and Ben Roethlisberger (97.4).

    ▪ Tannehill, who has 16 touchdown passes and six interceptions, is throwing touchdowns on 8.1 percent of his throws this season, which is third best in the league, behind only Mahomes and Wilson.

    His interception percentage is tied for fifth best. His average gain per play of 8.01 yards is ninth. And his 67 completion percentage is 13th in the league.

    ▪ In his three games back since his shoulder injury, Tannehill has completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 606 yards, with eight touchdowns, one interception and a 129.9 rating.

    ▪ Now consider what Tannehill has done in 21 career starts with Gase as his coach: a 13-8 record, 67 percent completion percentage and a 97.6 passer rating. For perspective, only three active quarterbacks have career passer ratings higher than that 97.6: Rodgers at 103.4, Wilson at 100.5 and Brees at 97.8.

    Brady’s career passer rating (97.6) is identical to Tannehill’s passer rating when Gase is his coach. 21 games is not 1 game.
     
  20. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    One game? ONE?????

    Tannehill has had TWO bad games this season....just two, against the Patriots in September and the Bengals, playing with an injured shoulder in which he shouldn't have been playing.

    Tannehill has posted 100+ QBRs in every game he's played this season expect the two mention above and first game of the season against the Titans. In fact, even with the two disasterous games against the Bengals and the Patriots, Tannehill STILL has a season average QBR of 105.7

    Tannehill's been doing his job. It's this team's defense that hasn't been doing theirs. In fact, had the defense done THEIR job, they could have actually helped Osweiller get a couple of wins.
     
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  21. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I do agree with a lot of this. Tannehill hasn’t been bad this year. Surrounded by a good cast we certainly can win with him.

    I won’t let those numbers sway me into believing he is anywhere near a top tier guy. But from what I’ve watched he’s been much closer to good than bad overall.
     
  22. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    12-4 in the last 16 games
     
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  23. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes why let the truth sway you.
     
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  24. Dolphins1372

    Dolphins1372 Guest

    Tannehills stats till he got hurt.
    Comp. yards. Tds.
    1 TEN 28 230 2
    2 @NYJ 23 168 2
    3 OAK 23 289 3
    4 @NE 20 100 0
    5 @CIN 35 185 1

    Those are some dominating numbers. Huh? He personnaly blew game 5 all by himself. No excuses. (His blockers were hurt) so adjust. Dont turn it over.
    He is what we thought he is.
    Average at best.
    I want whats best for the team to ever be great. I don’t think it’s him.
     
  25. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I think a lot of this comes down to a couple factors. Tannehill deserves his share of the blame too so dont think Im excusing him.

    Third downs come down to three things really in my mind.

    1) Predictability - Obviously to convert a 3rd and long you are more likely to pass limiting your play call choices. Running is more a way to play it safe and hope you pop one.

    2) Playmakers - Having guys who are simply more athletic or skilled gives you a chance to convert on any down.

    3) Offensive Line - Also can be said for any down but if you don't have the blocking you will fail, especially long attempts where the defense can pin their ears back.

    We have been predictable due to being in third and longs.

    Our playmakers have been out which adds fire to the first point. Right now our best weapons are our backs. They are great and deserve credit but they can't carry the third and long burden.

    Then you get to the offensive line that at times has been good and others looked pretty horrible. It not only adds to point one but also we lack the playmakers to bail them out.

    So if I were to wrap it up in a neat bow Id say that for us to convert a third and long we have to execute nearly perfectly, hope for a missed defensive assignment or hope Drake breaks one.

    Id like to see us steadily improve with Stills back and looking good. The offense needs chemistry.
     
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  26. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    None of that **** matters until a Tannehill-led team can march into Foxboro or some other rough coldweather NFL city in December/January and make noise.

    The rest is fluff.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2018
  27. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Sheesh. I can’t even begin to explain this to you. So I won’t.
     
  28. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Look, I'm not going to disagree about the defense being **** this year and Burke needing to be fired yesterday.

    But we simply aren't going to agree on THill. He's not terrible or actively losing games more often than not, but I am done settling. I don't want to turn into Jacksonville 2.0 next year. They let an above average season and hot streak at the end of the year convince them Bortles was the guy ... and they now suck because he reverted to the norm. And that's with twice the defense we have. I don't want to be Detroit with Stafford, relying on a guy who is not bad, but also has historically struggled in the biggest games, doesn't take teams to the playoffs and win, but who people keep saying they can win with if they juuuuuuust do X.

    I'm over it and over him.
     
  29. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's what I thought.

    @A guy named Alex

    Comp/Yards/TDs are one component.
    1 TEN 28 230 2 - 120 rushing = Balanced attack = 350 yards
    2 @NYJ 23 168 2 - 135 rushing = Balanced attack = 303 yards
    3 OAK 23 289 3 - 41 rushing = Unbalanced and threw for almost 300 yards and 3 TDs. = 330 yards
    4 @NE 20 100 0 - We crapped the bed
    5 @CIN 35 185 1 - 128 rushing - Balanced attack = 303 yards

    Isn't that what everyone says - you need a balanced attack?
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The bolded stuff is completely irrelevant because it's not adjusted for era (except for the W/L record which doesn't need adjustment). Someone in Club posted the same thing and I'll have to respond in a similar way lol.

    Basically you want to first adjust each passer rating to a given year, then take what's called the weighted average of those adjusted passer ratings where the "weight" is the number of passing attempts that year to get an overall career rating. Using 2017 as the reference year where the league average was 86.9, Brady's career weighted average passer rating is 100.43 while for Tannehill under Gase it's 93.28.

    That's still a BIG difference and that's after cherry picking (i.e., only comparing Tannehill + Gase vs. all of Brady).
     
  31. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Imagine the narrative if Gronk doesn't slip yesterday and we lose? Tanny played well, but to try and tell me he is an upper tier QB because the stats say so? Na man, we have 2 totally different ways to judge a QB.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The main reason I'm skeptical Tannehill's year-end stats will be as good as they currently are is because the difference between 2016 and 2018 passer ratings is almost entirely due to one component: TD%.
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm

    In 2018 Tannehill has a TD% of 8.1% which is amazing considering that the league average is 4.96% and the standard deviation is 1.62. In other words Tannehill is right on the cusp of statistical significance with his current TD%. In prior years Tannehill never got up to 5%.

    So ask yourself whether you think there's something about Tannehill or the passing offense as a whole that will continue to have such a high percentage of TD's. Personally I don't think so. Now if his current rating was due to an absurdly high completion percentage I think that would remain high for the rest of the season, but TD%??

    So we'll see if the stats are that far off from what you think of Tannehill when the season is over. I think that TD% is going to see regression to the mean (which IMO is much lower) over the last 3 games. As a Dolphins fan though I hope I'm so totally wrong about this!!
     
  33. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    You know how I feel about stats w/o context.

    Yes that miracle TD will boost Ryan's numbers to fool some into believing he is all of a sudden an upper their QB. Just how some people roll.

    I didn't need that TD at the end to tell me Ryan had his best day of they year yesterday.
     
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  34. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Thanks for doing the actual math there cbrad. I was about to make that point but doing the math was beyond me.
     
  35. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Tannehill’s qbr yesterday was 155.7

    Take away the miracle, his qbr drops to 145.83

    In my book, a 145.83 qbr is pretty damned impressive.
     
  36. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I already said he had a good game before that. So we agree.
     
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  37. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Actually I think the TD% is a matter of design.
    In his first years Tannehill had a bunch of slow sure handed WRs, Hartline, Bess, Landry as his primary WRs. His speed man was Wallace, who he had difficulty connecting with on deep balls (not saying who was to blame just acknowledging the fact), but when Wallace went to short routes his connection with Tannehill improved. Also in the Sherman years there was an overuse of hooks and curls preventing chances for breakaway TDs.

    This year, at full strength, Miami has a complete stable of burners who can can either be a deep ball threat (Stills and Parker) or take short passes to the house (Grant, Wilson and Drake). Gase’s offensive design, as I see it, is to use the short stuff to open up big play shots downfield. I don’t have the numbers but I believe Miami has to be close to the team with the most 50+ yard TDs this season, and is probably among the leaders with 20+ yard TDs. The issue for ongoing TD% productivity is the absence of Wilson and Grant but we still have Drake and Stills and if a few other players chip in (as we have seen with Carroo and Bolden in recent weeks) it is possible that it won’t fall that far
     
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  38. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Just looked up p-f-r. So far Miami has 10 50+ yard TDs this season.
    Kick off return: 1
    Punt return: 1
    Passing: 6
    Rushing: 2

    I am including the kickoff and punt returns because they are designed to use our speed men.

    On top of that there have been a further 8 20 to 50 yard TDs (all passing)

    Edit:
    For reference our D has allowed 5 20-50 yard TDs plus 2 50+ yard TDs and our special teams have given up 1 50+ yard TD.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2018
  39. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Sorry for being a lazy ******* here lol, but did you get any context on these stats for other teams? Are we ranked #1, middle of the pack, etc? Are we easily the leader in 50+? What's the context?
     
  40. IdrA

    IdrA Rebuilding for Eternity.

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    Anybody can tell me if we're getting Xavien back this year? X makes our pass D waaay better.
     
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