I've always thought that draft picks are overvalued in terms of what they represent, basically a claim on an unknown player's NFL future rights to access free agency.

So let us take a look at 2008's 2nd rd draft class:

32
Phillip Merling
Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 270 lbs
Position: DE
School: Clemson
Class: Senior


#33
Donnie Avery
Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 190 lbs
Position: WR
School: Houston
Class:

#33
Donnie Avery
Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 190 lbs
Position: WR
School: Houston
Class:


#34*
Devin Thomas
Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 221 lbs
Position: WR
School: MSU
Class: Junior

#34*
Devin Thomas
Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 221 lbs
Position: WR
School: MSU
Class: Junior


#35
Brandon Flowers
Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 190 lbs
Position: CB
School: Virginia Tech
Class: Senior

#35
Brandon Flowers
Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 190 lbs
Position: CB
School: Virginia Tech
Class: Senior


#36*
Jordy Nelson
Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 217 lbs
Position: WR
School: Kansas St.
Class:

#36*
Jordy Nelson
Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 217 lbs
Position: WR
School: Kansas St.
Class:


#37
Chris Lofton
Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 246 lbs
Position: LB
School: Oklahoma
Class:

#37
Chris Lofton
Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 246 lbs
Position: LB
School: Oklahoma
Class:


#38*
John Carlson
Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 250 lbs
Position: TE
School: Notre Dame
Class:

#38*
John Carlson
Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 250 lbs
Position: TE
School: Notre Dame
Class:


#39
Chilo Rachal
Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 315 lbs
Position: G
School: USC
Class:

#39
Chilo Rachal
Ht/Wt: 6-5 / 315 lbs
Position: G
School: USC
Class:


#40
Tracy Porter
Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 185 lbs
Position: CB
School: Indiana
Class:

#40
Tracy Porter
Ht/Wt: 5-11 / 185 lbs
Position: CB
School: Indiana
Class:


#41
James Hardy
Ht/Wt: 6-7 / 220 lbs
Position: WR
School: Indiana
Class: Junior

#41
James Hardy
Ht/Wt: 6-7 / 220 lbs
Position: WR
School: Indiana
Class: Junior


#42
Eddie Royal
Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 184 lbs
Position: WR
School: Virginia Tech
Class:

#42
Eddie Royal
Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 184 lbs
Position: WR
School: Virginia Tech
Class:


#43*
Tyrell Johnson
Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 207 lbs
Position: S
School: Arkansas St.
Class:

#43*
Tyrell Johnson
Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 207 lbs
Position: S
School: Arkansas St.
Class:


#44
Matt Forte
Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 222 lbs
Position: RB
School: Tulane
Class:

#44
Matt Forte
Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 222 lbs
Position: RB
School: Tulane
Class:


#45
Jordon Dizon
Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 229 lbs
Position: LB
School: Colorado
Class:

#45
Jordon Dizon
Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 229 lbs
Position: LB
School: Colorado
Class:


#46
Jerome Simpson
Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 190 lbs
Position: WR
School: Costal Carolina
Class:

#46
Jerome Simpson
Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 190 lbs
Position: WR
School: Costal Carolina
Class:


#47
Trevor Laws
Ht/Wt: 6-1 / 304 lbs
Position: DT
School: Notre Dame
Class:

#47
Trevor Laws
Ht/Wt: 6-1 / 304 lbs
Position: DT
School: Notre Dame
Class:


#48*
Fred Davis
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 248 lbs
Position: TE
School: Southern Cal
Class:

#48*
Fred Davis
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 248 lbs
Position: TE
School: Southern Cal
Class:


#49
DeSean Jackson
Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 166 lbs
Position: WR
School: California
Class: Junior

#49
DeSean Jackson
Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 166 lbs
Position: WR
School: California
Class: Junior


#50
Calais Campbell
Ht/Wt: 6-8 / 280 lbs
Position: DE
School: Miami
Class: Junior

#50
Calais Campbell
Ht/Wt: 6-8 / 280 lbs
Position: DE
School: Miami
Class: Junior


#51
Malcolm Kelly
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs
Position: WR
School: Oklahoma
Class: Junior

#51
Malcolm Kelly
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs
Position: WR
School: Oklahoma
Class: Junior


#*52
Quentin Groves
Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 254 lbs
Position: DE
School: Auburn
Class: Senior

#*52
Quentin Groves
Ht/Wt: 6-3 / 254 lbs
Position: DE
School: Auburn
Class: Senior


#53
Limas Sweed
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs
Position: WR
School: Texas
Class: Senior

#53
Limas Sweed
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 220 lbs
Position: WR
School: Texas
Class: Senior


#54
Jason Jones
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 273 lbs
Position: DE
School: Eastern Mich.
Class:

#54
Jason Jones
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 273 lbs
Position: DE
School: Eastern Mich.
Class:


#55*
Ray Rice
Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 195 lbs
Position: RB
School: Rutgers
Class: Junior

#55*
Ray Rice
Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 195 lbs
Position: RB
School: Rutgers
Class: Junior


#56*
Brian Brohm
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 226 lbs
Position: QB
School: Louisville
Class: Senior

#56*
Brian Brohm
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 226 lbs
Position: QB
School: Louisville
Class: Senior


#57*
Chad Henne
Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 223 lbs
Position: QB
School: Michigan
Class: Senior

#57*
Chad Henne
Ht/Wt: 6-2 / 223 lbs
Position: QB
School: Michigan
Class: Senior


#58*
Dexter Jackson
Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 182 lbs
Position: KR
School: Appalachian St.
Class:

#58*
Dexter Jackson
Ht/Wt: 5-10 / 182 lbs
Position: KR
School: Appalachian St.
Class:


#59
Mike Pollak
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 299 lbs
Position: OT
School: Arizona St.
Class:

#59
Mike Pollak
Ht/Wt: 6-4 / 299 lbs
Position: OT
School: Arizona St.
Class:


#60
Patrick Lee
Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 200 lbs
Position: DB
School: Auburn
Class:

#60
Patrick Lee
Ht/Wt: 6-0 / 200 lbs
Position: DB
School: Auburn
Class:


#61
Martellus Bennett
Ht/Wt: 6-6 / 260 lbs
Position: TE
School: Texas A&M
Class:

#61
Martellus Bennett
Ht/Wt: 6-6 / 260 lbs
Position: TE
School: Texas A&M
Class:


#62
Terrence Wheatley
Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 178 lbs
Position: CB
School: Colorado
Class:

#62
Terrence Wheatley
Ht/Wt: 5-9 / 178 lbs
Position: CB
School: Colorado
Class:


#63
Terrell Thomas
Ht/Wt: 6-1 / 198 lbs
Position: CB
School: Southern Cal
Class:

31 picks, now let's look at who has been clear busts:

12 picks, have busted or been clear disappointments:

-Merling
-Thomas
-Hardy
-Johnson
-Dizon
-Simpson
-Kelly
-Groves
-Sweed
-Brohm
-Jackson
-Wheatley
-Lee

Now, it can be argued over with Phil Merling but I would suggest if they felt Merling was solid, they would not have drafted Jared Odrick.

This is one of the reasons why I believe that trading draft choices for proven NFL players who are in their prime, is a good deal, the problem with such trades is not on a talent for talent comparison it is the large contract the recently acquired veteran will command.

That is one of the reasons why trading draft choices, on occasion, for a proven Vet, especially a impact Vet such as a Ricky Williams or a Jay Cutler make sense for teams, where it runs amok is deals such as a #2 and a #5 for Jason Taylor.

Thoughts?

 

Would not surprise if he finally wins the Te job outright, but Cooley has held him off for yrs now.

For me, it was always odd how draft choices are held in such high esteem when the actual players who are taken may do nothing at all in the NFL, or not very much due to injuries or what have you.

To me, good teams do use the Draft, but they are not just married to it as the only way to build a team, it is my personal philosophy that these guys, some just did not become bad football players and there is hay to be made picking through the cast offs the skill is in having a GM who really knows what his coaching staff looks for in players and what their scheme requires as a DefCord or OffCord is not going to spend much time at all studying these guys, the GM has to know who will work and who won't and to not waste the Staff's time bringing in players who just do not fit what a team does.

 

Oh I agree, which to me is sort of the dirty little secret of the NFL, it is not that so and so is a bad player, it is that a Rook works much more cheaply, ie, they do not wish to spend the money for that extra 10% worth of performance a Vet offers. That said one of the great GM feats is Ted Thompson in Green Bay finding guys week in and week out for a injured packers team, and not only did they fill in they played really well like Erik Walden racking up some sacks for them late in the yr.

THAT to me is worth more then the draft choices themselves, if one thinks about what a draft choice actually is, it amounts to a team being allowed to own the rights to a player they have identified and feel will fit into their systems on offense or defense, no different then a Street Fa or UDFA or what have you, the difference being in the perceived value of the draft choice over the supposedly unknown quantity that the UDFA or Street FA offers.

For example, Ryan Mallett has a imptued value, even though he has never played a down or taken a snap in a practice, Bruce Gradkowski has a lesser value as he has already taken snaps and played in games and did not perform particularly well, Mallett could very well do nothing at all, but his value in people's minds is higher simply because he is a unknown/draft pick.

 

See, but that his heresy for Draftniks funkdat, to listen to the process each yr one would think every draft choice in rd #1 or #2 is a sure fire all pro, when the reality is..they bust out frequently.

Which is why the Brandon Marshall trade for Sergio Kindle (who likely will never play in the NFL) and Orlando Franklin (who has injury issues already) was a steal..for us and imho such a trade for a Kyle Orton also makes sense as the likelihood of a #1 or #2 pick busting is far greater then the likelihood that Orton just flops in Miami, but draftniks do not want to hear it.

Those stats btw, sort of reveal why the Patriots do what they do on draft day, they know picks bust all of the time so it is better to have several #1 or #2 picks to choose from rather then one moderately low #1 or #2 pick.

But that also creates opportunity to sift through the rubble of guys who do not make it in New England that many high draft choices and only so many practice reps to go around, they will miss on some guys who really can play but just did not make it in NE.