http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/21537/deep-thoughts-with-chad-henne 14 throws over 20 yds? Pennington with his pop gun arm, which ESPN does not mention, does not mind throwing the ball over 20 yds, in 08 he did so surprisingly often
Blame the coaches.... you'd have to be a fool to think a guy like Henne wouldn't want to be airing it out.
The one piece of information that would be really helpful would be to see how many play calls had receivers past 20 yards down field or on routes that will take them 20 yards down field. That we'd know how may times Henne had the chance to throw deep versus the number of times he actually did. What if there were only 14 plays called with receivers down the field, or what if there were 50 called but he only threw 14 passes deep. That would be a bit more helpful IMO.
Who cares what ESPN has to say? If it doesn't involve Favre, Moss Patriots or Jets, they don't know what they are talking about.
We can do the same "ya, but, what if" lines for those numbers just like Chad Henne's too... One game was 4 INTs--vs Ravens in the Playoffs. So he had 2 in his starts last year. The Colts game the defense gave it up--we've heard that line a few time in defense of Henne. The other loss was a game in which we were right there and Henne came in so to attribute that loss directly to Pennington wouldn't be fair. His other loss in Atlanta--Matt Ryan has only lost once in his career in the Georgia Dome and every drive we had Fasano ended up fumbling the football. So again, you can defend each side here and play all the scenarios out and talk about other portions of the team not holding up their end of the bargain. The fact remains--Sparano went to a guy that he has proof of winning games for him in the past. And a guy that he has proof is great in the redzone area. He went to him. Let's see how he does.
I am surprised that Sanchez leads the AFCE in this stat. It's also worth noting that 40% if his TD passes have come on these types of passes. I guess my question is Henne's lack of long throws by design or due to his inability to find an open receiver or reluctance to throw it to them?
I don't know if that will go up necessarily. However, I bet his TDs go up and his targets in the redzone go up.
That could very well happen. With Henne, D's were playing a 2-Deep, basically keeping everything in front of them. Hard to get YAC when there's always a safety behind you and LB's dropping back in coverage, especially when you're doubled as often as Marshall has been. Although wasn't the biggest irk of the 2008 offense that we had little to no YAC? Outside of one game Ginn went off on the Bills for 175, we were abysmal in that area. Maybe with Marshall, and improved Bess and Hartline (and a better pass-blocking O-Line) we'll see better results.
And there is where the rubber meets the road, there supposedly is a deep option on most plays called (per Sparano) but unless there is access to say Football Focus's stats, or stats unknown to me, cannot say for certain. I do seem to recall that Penny went over twenty yds downfield a surprising perecentage of his passes, like in 08 he threw deep more often than Favre (?). I recall KC Joyner being particularly critical of Pennington throwing deep so often as it was a "bad decision" per his Stat Monkery.
I'd have to say, based on what the Staff has to say, that was due to Henne's sheer reluctance to throw those 20 yd plus passes. Penny is surprisingly willing to throw them up and imho that is a part of the reason for the switch.
I know BM is not a burner, but are you telling me Braylon Edwards is faster? And I saw Holmes get run down from behind by a linebacker last week
This is true. However, that being said, given that Henne is throwing much shorter than almost all the other QB's in the league (we can fault him or the OC - doesn't matter), the fact is, he should be much more efficient. But, he is not: - 24th in QB rating; - 9th in completion % (but still low given his much shorter passes); - 4th in INT's (that's terrible given he's opting for higher % passes). And, when one considers the stat from ESPN, it makes perfect sense to start Pennington. If (whether it's Henne's check downs or the play called by the OC) you are going to throw shorter range passes and not air it out down field, then you might as well go with the guy who is smarter, makes better decisions and throws more accurately (as well as a more catchable ball) than the guy with the big arm. One thing I don't like about our pass offense (though it is somewhat difficult to determine for certain) is that it appears that there are not many of those deep crossing routes (ala the Colts and Saints). The Colts are great at sending a WR/TE across the middle on a deep slant. They get a ton of big plays from that and Miami just rarely throws those (which would appear to be Henne's strength from an arm strength perspective; but whether they have confidence for him to make the right read is another thing). Of course, we are even less likely to see those in the future with Pennington. But, if it's going to be the same offense, might as well cut down on the INT's and complete more passes.
Fair enough. I have to say I was shocked that he wasn't tossing balls up in Marshall's direction more often, like he did in the Jets game. I didn't think that long pass play in the 3rd quarter to BM was a well thrown ball, but Marshall out jumped Baby Maker for the catch. In a worst case scenario, BM plays defender. Maybe Henne was just too scared to throw an INT and draw the wrath of his coach? For better or worse, Sanchez has no qualms about chucking one down the field. And when it works, it's a thing of beauty. When it doesn't, you pray for an incompletion or and INT that turns out to be the equivalent to a punt.
Of additional interest in the ESPN chart - 6 of Henne's 10 INT's came on passes 10 yards or less. That's just wrong (as in bad form CH!).
None. There is proof to the contrary hearing Sparano preach about chunk yardage and all of that. People just assume Henning and Sparano never want to go down the field. Though we've all felt the vibe that Sparano is being super conservative. But there is not actual proof.
That is Henne's lack of touch and rapport with the Wr's coming into play. Fasano was known as a guy who would put the ball on the ground, he was not known as a guy who couldn't catch the ball..until now. Jerud Mastrud got some first team reps on Wednesday so it would not surprise if they found a way to use that 6'5 frame, ditto Lil Beast, if Pennington cannot throw a deep out, he can throw to the physical mismatch. This is sort of what I'm speaking about the Oline finding a better rhythm with the running game:
That is because Fasano is an arm and body tackler. he isn't good at catching with his hands. Pennington throws the perfect passes for him.
Henning has said before that he doesn't like to throw the ball over the middle often due to the % of INT's in that area. That you could link back to not having a TE catch more than 30 balls only 4 times in the 28 years as an OC he had before he came here.
just going by 40 times from the predraft... yes... BM's was 4.56, Edwards was 4.45, Holmes was 4.35... I believe Hartline's in the 4.5's... Bess I'm sure is 4.6's...
Thanks for that. How does Edwards compare to other "burners" around the league? He must be deceptively fast, because I never realized he is supposed to be quick.
I would say he's pretty high up there... that 4.45 time actually surprised me... I could have sworn he was closer to 4.3 flat.
It was a save their own asses move so sorry if what they say has little meaning at this point You basing this on that one flutter ball that Penny threw up for grabs to Marshall in the preseason? Because that statement is otherwise total crap......Penny is scared to death to throw to half the field and routinely leaves big plays on the field because he knows his arm is too weak to throw into a window. We have a coach that coaches scared and our QB's mentor is the king of checkdowns........ what part of this don't you get?
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/13/going-deep-with-brees-and-pennington/ At what point do you concede JS? Penny consistently throws downfield, always has, his issue is deep outs and the outer hashmarks, he can throw with air under the ball down them, he cannot throw flat throws to the outside. Pennington has no problem tossing it downfield..noodle arm and all..who'd a thunk it? Toss this into the mix as well: CP is stingy with the turnovers, the Titans feed off of them turning them into points at the best rate in the NFL.
Pennington didn't "air it out" in 2008. He had 8.1% of his aimed pass attempts go 20+ yards. Big deal. Henne has had 6.2% of his pass attempts this year go 20+ yards. WOWOWOWOWOWOWW!!!!!! WHAT A DIFFERENCE!
These stats are not accurate. I checked this very stat personally by request. Henne is 12 of 29 on passes that travel 20 yards in the air this year.
Checked how? Pro Football Focus, who I've come to trust very much on the subject, says 4 of 16 for 143 yards on passes that go 20+ yards down the field.
Oddly enough, Sparano talks about this being a running team, or at least wanting to be a running team. Then we go out and pass four times as often as we run against the Ravens. There is a reality gap between what Sparano talks about in his press conferences and what actually happens on the field.
