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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Mainge, Sep 17, 2014.
I still believe he needs better accuracy, but you make a good point.
Stats frequently lie especially with a QB. I disagree completely about not throwing the ball to a receiver that drops it. A receiver that drops too many balls being on the field is the responsibility of the OC.
I respectfully disagree.
Watching that video should make you feel a little better about Tannehill. I liked him using his legs. Needs to happen more. Part of the problem was how quickly Buffalo swarmed on the short stuff and the lack of a THREAT of the run was a killer. If Miami could have kept Buffalo honest with the run, could have been better. We'll see what this week brings. But putting the ball in the air 40+ times is not a recipe to win....with ANY QB
And it likely will, because each dropback is divorced from the surrounding context. Instead of watching the game live, with the importance of each play in relation to the outcome in full view and in full consideration, you're watching the game piecemeal.
Once again, it's a mistake to evaluate the play of a player without considering the importance of the plays in which he's involved. Missing a TD pass down the field when the team is still in the game and is attempting a comeback, is a different critter from missing a TD when the team is up by three touchdowns in fourth quarter garbage time.
Not all plays are created equal, and when you review film piecemeal, divorced from the context of the game, it makes it appear they are.
I believe I counted four tips at the Los, and he has to be the worst screen pass thrower in the league, sometimes in the screen game the player is the perfect distance where you cannot throw a line drive, you must be able to loft the football at a certain trajectory, he is completely uncomfortable with the screen game and it's all about how he doesn't know how to adjust his arm slot and his basic mechanics of throwing does not fit with what you have to do with your arm to be a successful screen thrower...you've got to be able to extend from your shoulder to your fingertips and letting the ball release of those fingertips , if you notice he keeps the ball very close to his body at release, pushes it kind of, sign that he is not confident in his touch.
Viewing every pass in rapid succession allows patterns and trends to be easily identified. Watching a 30 minute game over the course of three hours makes that more difficult without incredible attention to detail and memory. When you're emotionally invested in the outcome of every play, that's easier said than done. And the Dolphins weren't out of it until 9 minutes or so left in the 4th quarter.
The three most notable issues with our passing offense vs. Buffalo (in order)
1. Bills defense won the battle at the LOS and consistently applied pressure. Very few passing attempts were met with a clean pocket. in fact, the majority of passing attempts were met with a dirty pocket. The eyeball test and stats are in agreement there. The Bills did to us what we did to Brady, basically.
2. The Bills secondary dominated in coverage. Almost no separation from our WR's outside of underneath crossing routes vs. Zone. Also, dropped passes were an issue at critical moments.
3. Tannehill made a few poor throws. The Brandon Gibson misfire on 3rd down while he was open on a skinny post was the worst pass of the game. I thought he played better than week one, despite far more adversity.
For the most part, the Bill's defense just whopped our asses. That defense is for real. They're quick, powerful, and disciplined.
And that may be true, and if so, where are we? Do we still need "more weapons"? Is the offensive line still a terrible problem? Is the offensive coordinator inept, as has been postulated in the past? Why wasn't the team more competitive against a good defense?
Buffalo's defense, while good, is going to get beaten soundly at some point this year, and if it isn't because they've played poorly, what will that team have that we don't?
Great job Mainge! Thanks for posting this. I give alot of credit to the Bills defense, especially how they mixed up their blitzes. When they wanted to pressure the QB they did. Hopefully the o-line will improve as they get more time together, and getting Pouncey back should help. Tannehill seems to do better the less time he has to find a receiver, and there were some weird looking drops by the backs & receivers. Even on the replay it was hard to tell if Miller and (I think) Hartline were trying to catch a bad pass or just didn't position themselves well. I still think Tannehill underthrows the deep ball too much, and throws behind too many receivers. New offense, working out the kinks? We'll see. Looking for a good game at home against KC.
I gotta ask...do you have any positives about Tannehill? I mean, I've seen tons of posts from you where you blame the entire offensive failure on Tannehill. Has he been awesome? No, but he's not been as bad as you make it seem. When you watch the dropbacks by themselves, it actually paints a clearer picture of Tannehill, and what he's dealing with. How much 4 man pressure did you see? I saw waaaaay too much. Tannehill bears some of the blame, but the horrible receiver play bears alot of blame, and the horrible oline play bears alot of responsibility. I think what really happens is, that when you watch all the dropbacks a couple days after the game, you are more able to emotion out of the equation, and simply rate Tannehill on what you're seeing. During the game, it's nearly impossible to do that.
The pressure wasn't an issue if you're subscribing to the pff version, where they record him as completing 7 of 8 under pressure. If it wasn't the pressure, and he completed 63% of his passes, then why is his YPA so godawful?
All of these above? I don't think our receivers are anything special. Mike Wallace is faster than average, that's about it. Everyone else is serviceable. even Clay has been disappointing. Not to mention, our best weapon (Moreno) was injured at the start. Our offensive line is still a problem. Albert and James are strong bookends. Everything in between is average or below. Pouncey will be an upgrade once he gets back. Lazor is obviously a huge question mark too. And last but not least, Tannehill has to be more consistent.
The entire offense is shaky. I don't think any one player is the problem.
Pressure only counts when he got the ball off? I mean, if you watch the video, of the three sacks in the first half, two of them he was under crazy pressure, very quickly, from a four man rush. It's great that he was almost perfect when he actually got the ball off when under pressure. Also, can't deny that his YPA attempt would go up if some of the well thrown deep balls weren't dropped. That being said, I'm not saying that Tannehill is perfect, or has nothing to work on. Clearly, he needs to get better. I'm just kind of sick of seeing people lay it all at the QB's feet.
When every pass has to be done from the shotgun plus a 3 step drop....and you're still under duress...It's tough.
According to PFF, over the first two games, Tannehill has been pressured on 28.4% of his pass dropbacks, which is 17th in the league among quarterbacks (16 QBs have been pressured more often).
He's been sacked 5 of the 25 times he's been pressured, which is 10th in the league.
His average time to be sacked is 3.36 seconds, which is 12th in the league (16 QBs have been sacked faster on average).
He hasn't been sacked at all prior to 2.5 seconds after the snap. All of his sacks have occurred at the 2.6-second mark and beyond.
Tannehill's QB rating when throwing the ball at 2.5 seconds after the snap or sooner is 92.4. His QB rating when throwing the ball at the 2.6-second mark and beyond is 49.8.
Thank you for providing some more in depth stats. I don't see anything in these to indicate that his problems are a result of the offensive line either.
Emo...did you watch the video? You can clearly see that on two of the sacks, as I recall, the pressure was there very quickly. Also, when you're looking at averages, after two games, it's pretty telling. So, he was sacked three times in the first half of the Buffalo game. So, 3 out of 5 were in one game...and on those three sacks, he didn't have three seconds to throw. And, at least one of those sacks, again, I believe it was two, it was against a 4 man rush. So, I guess what I'm saying is, I wonder how the Buffalo game compares to the NFL average right now, limited as the average is.
Having three seconds to throw in the NFL isn't such a great thing. Peyton Manning throws the ball in less than two seconds on average, and almost all of the QBs in the NFL in 2013 performed significantly worse (in terms of QB rating) when throwing the ball after 2.5 seconds than when throwing the ball in 2.5 seconds or sooner.
The rush gets there quickly in the NFL. The problem with Tannehill in my opinion is that he has a very limited ability to judge quickly whether he's going to throw to his first read, while at the same time being aware enough of what's happening with the pass rush to know what he needs to do with regard to that, too (i.e., move, run, throw, etc.). He's not able to "multi-task" in that regard. Consequently, when the rush arrives, he's ill-prepared to deal with it.
You can change your radio station while you drive because you can multi-task and be aware of the road in front of you while also fooling with the knobs on your dash. Tannehill is so tuned in to the road ahead of him (his reads downfield) that he's unable to change his radio station (react to the pass rush).
This is a pretty good analogy, and it's something that, IMO, develops with time and experience.
If you allow me to expand on the analogy: some people are great natural drivers... as soon as they get their license they are already able to see everything around them while still being able to change the radio stations... other people take time to get used to driving, and in the beginning may feel insecure going full speed in the freeway, for example, and changing the radio stations at the same time. Others never become great drivers, no matter how much experience they have behind the wheel.
Let's hope Tannehill belongs in the second group.
I think the real problem and the real reason we lost was because we didn't have one of those "I hate Tom Brady" threads for Barfalo. If someone could have photoshopped the whole team being anally raped by a zoo full of chimpanzees, I think we would have had a better shot at winning.
The other part of the issue is still his anticipation and ball placement as well. The intermediate/long passing game is abysmal right now, and defenses are swarming on the short stuff even though the spacing is better.
When you have a game like it was in buffalo where the intensity is ratcheted up, things on the field will happen faster for the defense, since the get, I've been saying the evaluation is not about can we win some regular season games with Tannehill, we can, I know he can play better than he has, however I've always said the eval is about whether his game can win playoff games when things get more constricted and speed of the game goes up a bit, that buffalo game was so hyped, the crowd so juiced I would call that playoff atmoshere, he didn't pass simulated playoff test at this stage in his career.
...nor did he last year in the final two games of the season, when the team's playoff hopes were riding on it. And in those games, there was no such "juice" for the other team, which has to make you wonder whether Tannehill simply tends to respond poorly whenever there is any emotional ratcheting up involved, whether it's for his own team or the other one.
The video looks like it could be a Mike Sherman offense.
Dink and dunk, throws to guys in tight areas, curls/comebacks along the boundary, and most importantly...NO yardage via RAC. It's awful. Posted this stat in another thread: On Monday out of Foles' 331yds, 233 was RAC yardage. That's nuts. That's a Chip Kelly offense.
Tannehill is next-to-last in ypa so far this season (an embarrassing 5.17). If that doesn't change the pass O and offense in general will continue to struggle big-time due to a lack of chunk plays.
Having Sproles helps that A LOT! He has 174 RAC for the season
And opposing defenses will start to defend a smaller and smaller portion of the field, which will eventually make almost nothing work.
1. I don't disagree with a lot of what you said here, per se.
2. Getting the ball out in under 3 seconds is ask well and good...except that I'm talking about specific plays where with a 4 man rush, Tannehill was under intense pressure under 3 seconds. It's great if you have five or six guys coming, means there's an open guy to throw to, and you can get rid of out fast. When there's 4 rushing, and creating fast pressure, and there's 7 guys in coverage, where do you throw the ball?
3. Stats are somewhat meaningless here unless we know that Peyton is facing similar numbers in the box, blitzes, etc. Give Peyton 4-5 seconds in a pocket, and watch him dissect you.
4. Why are we trying to compare Tannehill to one of the all-time greats again? Seems a tad bit ridiculous...
The reality is, while the Bills did play well on D, RT had plays there to be made (the Wallace throw and the Gibson throw) that could have accounted for 14 points instead of 3. And, those plays would also have likely changed the momentum, imo. It's not just the actual score but what those scores can do to the course of the game and the emotions of the players.
Tannehill just has to start stepping up. It doesn't matter what else happens, he is missing big plays and key plays and simply has to do better.
Heck, take responsibility. Drew Brees puts up 34 points and takes the blame for losing. Stand up, be a leader, start making plays and get the job done. That's the bottom line. At this point, there's no more excusing him even if the D does well when there are plays to be made that he's not making.
I used Manning only as a benchmark to show how quickly some QBs can get rid of the ball, and to further illustrate that having more time to throw doesn't necessarily do a QB any favors. When there is a four-man rush that gets to the QB quickly, the QB needs to recognize the rush, move, and extend the play. Again, though, Tannehill doesn't seem to have the ability to multi-task and recognize the rush and move under those conditions. He seems transfixed on what's going on downfield.
It's a very difficult position to play, and playing it well requires an exceptional set of diverse skills.
Sure...last year Tannehill was in the top of they league for getting rid of the ball quickly...and there were interception problems. Any info on if what we're seeing this year, i.e., four man rush pressure, was similar last year? Point is, teams brought lots of pressure last year, even with four man fronts...Tannehill made quick decisions, forcing the ball, and everyone freaked over the picks. This year, Tannehill elects to not throw into crazy coverage and gets sacked. What's the constant? Sh*tty oline play. I still feel like Tannehill makes plays, but they're lost among the lack of running game/dropped passes/and poor oline. Then people sit back and complain about how bad Tannehill is, as if there aren't a plethora of other things affecting his situation, and making him look worse than he is.
A dude over at FH did an "unbiased, every drop-back" analysis on RT in the Buffalo game. He said it's unbiased, and I'd generally agree, but some of the comments show he's a Dolphins fan.
I thought it was pretty good, I just disagreed with his statement on the long ball to Hartline. No excuse that ball's not caught...it got to and through his hands clean...watched it frame by frame, it didn't get interfered with, Hartline just boned it.
I completely disagree. Hartline isn't key to anything, he had a chance to make a play on a perfectly thrown bomb on one of the rare instances of him getting behind a defense and the ball went right though his hands. this will probably be his last year in Miami.
Actually agree with this... wanted to trade him the past 2 seasons. He's not a TD scorer, nor a game changer. We need a Julio Jones, AJ Green, etc... or couple of them.