Facts & Opinions: What Can We Expect From Ronnie Brown In 08-09?

Great post man!

I really think Ronnie will come back 100%, everything I read yesterday about him sounded like he'll have a great year.

 

I care way less about him having great numbers this year then I do him making it through the season without set backs or injuries. I know our FO feels the same.

 

nice job Al. ronnie has yet to play a 16 game season, and for me, the smart money is to not expect him to do so this year either. Whatever reason he doesn't suit up for those games, i just hope its not because of a catastrophic injury.

 

I will believe he can play a whole year injury free when I see it. Frankly, given how high we drafted him, the guy has not produced for us so far.

 

Keep in mind though, all of those guys were #1 Running Backs, when they came back, they were expected to be #1 Running Backs.

We don't have to rely on Ronnie for that this year, we have Ricky to split the load with him, so his return is not as important as say TD's in Denver that next year.

 

Nice post Alen. The more I read in TC reports, the more it sounds like Ronnie could be ready week 1. I sure hope thats the case. Hopefully he is able to make it through the entire year without some freak injury again

 

Nice write-up bro.

236 carries would work out to 14.75 carries per game, which sounds about right.

I'd expect Ronnie to get about 10-15 carries, with Ricky getting around 5-10. I'd expect to see Ronnie get around 950 yards this year, with Ricky picking up around 525. If we actually get that kind of production from them, we should be competitive in a lot of games.

 

Good research and well thought out logic. With RB coming off the injury and this being a new team and all, it wouldnt surprise me to see him averaging 5-10 carries per gamefor the first few games with Ricky & our intriguing young backs getting some PT.

 

Nice work Alen, I think you made made more nervous than I was though...We are very lucky that we do not have to rush Ronnie anywhere this season. Having said that, we could still have one of the best backfields in football by seasons end.

 

We have a very talented back field so easy Ronnie back is a luxury we must utilize. Man its going to be exciting watching the PHINS run a smashmouth football game.

 

well certainly.. your fine work showed me that recovery from this injury wasn't as "assured" as I had previously thought. That in turn, made me nervous.. ignorance was bliss

 

Thats a real good point too. It's also worth while to mention that Ronnie only partially tore his ACL. Others have completely torn all the ligaments.

 

I think he'll have 600 to 1'000 yards this year.If he's 100% or even near it.

RW is going to be pushing him so much he won't have time to worry about getting hurt again.He'll be more worried about fighting for his job.

Everyone here should remember RB is a top 5 RB in the nfl.Also everyone should remember LT only became the 1# RB because RW couldn't stop smoking pot.

If they both can stay clean and healthy.This could be a very good year to be a dolfan.

I think this year is all about RB and RW.

 

Nice work, man!

 

Great post bro. What I would expect from is him trying to get past his injury and maybe towards the half ,mark of the season or towards the end he will start going back to his old ways and start running over people and being great

 

I dont think we will have to worry about him losing his job. I dont think the coaching staff is going to make that kind of move

 

1) I think Ronnie had a partial tear of the ACL, not a complete one. I am not sure the other running backs had the same types of tear. The severity of the tear, of course, has a huge impact on the recovery.

This article discusses the same thing as the thread:

http://proathletesonly.com/news/loc...acl-rehab-warnings-from-fellow-running-backs/

One quote from it is, "Davis, unlike Brown, also had a torn medial collateral ligament."


So Ronnie may recover better. The main advice in the article was that Ronnie had to wait until he had complete faith in the knee, so he didn't get into the catastrophic habit of hesitating before cutting on it. Sound like good advice.



2) With Henning's offense and our personnel (good run-blocking O-linemen, no established QB, weak WR corps) we expect an offense which runs a LOT. Last year, the four teams that rushed the most in the NFL were the Titans (543 att), Jags (522 att), Steelers (511) and Raiders (508). That probably puts us at around 500 attempts for this year, imo. I think that for the first half of the season we will see Ricky get 65% or those carries. assuming about 31 carries per game, that means around 21 carries for Ricky and 10 carries for Ronnie. After around four weeks I think it'll balance out to 50/50, so about 15 carries per game for Ronnie.

Overall, then, I'd expect Ronnie to have around 200-220 carries this season. Let's say 210.


3) YPC. Well, we all know this figure goes down after an ACL. Ronnie was averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Perhaps this drops a maximum of 1 full yard per carry, or as little as a quarter of a yeard per carry. I'll split the difference and say he'll drop by .6 yards per carry. That puts Ronnie at about 4.5 yds per carry, assuming all that changed was his knee. That's a very respectable YPC.


4) Unfortunately, other things changed besides Ronnie's knee. Ronnie was rushing for those yards when we still had Trent Green throwing the ball to Chris Chambers, and Cam Cameron scheming the offensive plays. Now, we sucked last year, but the offense actually looked so so early on (compared to later with Beck and no Chambers, when it went something like 15 quarters without a touchdown). So, remember that this year we have an unsettled QB situation, an offensive coordinator, Henning, who is probably more predictable (Cam was a good OC) and fewer downfield threats to scare defenses. That means more defenses will play the run against us, and Ronnie will face tighter run defense. I think it'll make it harder to earn yards this year than in the first few games of last year, when Cam's offense kept defenses more spread and guessing.

Accounting for our predictable run-run-run-punt offense this year... I expect to lose another yard off Ronnie's average. That's NOT Ronnie's fault, though.

So, from the 4.5 estimate for the knee injury I now expect to see it fall to 3.5 YPC. overall. That comes to 735 yards this year (on the ground) for Ronnie.



Now... all of that will probably change one the real games start. Ricky may come on so strong that he gets to keep the majority of carries "to help Ronnie rest his knee properly". Or, Ronnie may tweak a hammy because his running mechanics are different as he compensates for the knee (often a new weakness leads to changed mechanics, overly stressing other parts in ways to which the are not accustomed). Or Ricky could get hurt and Ronnie will carry more of the load than I expect.

All I know is, at least I won't have to wonder why Jesse Chatman is our #1 RB this year.



Good luck Ronnie!

Great thread, alen.

 

Nice post. Now I havn't looked anything up yet, but something else to consider is the wear and tear of the player before the injury. Brown shared carries in college so he doesn't have that wear and tear that some running backs do prior to the acl tear. Not sure if there is any correlation there, but I think I am going to look.

 

Alen; great job. I'm impressed.
As to the subject itself: my understanding of the dynamics of the recovery is that once the physical healing is complete, there's still a certain amount of mental healing, if you will, that also has to occur in order to completely "come back". To begin with the person has fears and doubts concerning durability and/or sustaining another tear, etc. This in turn leads to thinking too much or being timid. So it's an individual time table for each person as to how long before he quits worrying about the injury and just plays. So it can take as long as 2 years before a player is all the way back to form. Of course, too, some never get back.
Anyway you did a nice job and it was put together very well. I'm looking forward to more.

 

Around 225 carries and a down season I guess you could say as many here have high hopes for Ronnie. Its going to take him a while to get back into the swing of things and how well the Quarterback, whoever that is, is able to move the ball through the air will affect him dealry as well. Having Ricky back is going to help a lot and for the first month or so I wouldn't be surprised to see Ronnie carry it no more than 15 times a game.

 

I don't think that RB will have 200 carries this year, for two reasons:

1) RW will start, and is the better running back

2) Why risk rushing Ronnie back when we have RW?

Everyone knows how talented RW is- the early reports are not only that he's the dominant running back in camp, but that he's clearly the most impressive player on the whole team. Ronnie will have his chance to put up big numbers- just not this year.

 

I really don't think the knee is going to affect him, I think the bigger issue will be how good Ricky plays and how many carries he gets. If Ricky looks like a stud of course it will take away carries from Ronnie but if they both look really good who knows???

 

Hopefully he comes back strong from his injury and that we ease him into the offense this year.