Finsbuck719's Mock Off Season (v2)

I don't really consider WR a need for this team or at least not a very big one. There are definitely bigger needs such as offensive line, linebacker, and quarterback.

 

I have to say I wouldn't be very excited about that offseason at all. My greatest issue is at QB. You absolutely can't go into next season with essentially no one pushing Henne. Henne could potentially turn it around next year, but banking on that happening would be a huge mistake IMO. And Thigpen does not constitute as any kind of real threat. It has to be a highly drafted rookie or a veteran, and honestly their best bet would be doing both.

My second biggest issue is that draft day trade. You simply aren't getting enough value. That would be going from the middle of the 1st to almost out of the round and only getting a very late 2nd and some filler out of it. IMO, that's not worth it. And while I love Hankerson, I don't think he fits what the Dolphins need. They need a deep threat and while Hankerson may have ran a good 40 he doesn't play that fast. I also think that might be a little high for Jones.

I do like the Williams signing and while Spitz would be a solid pickup I have a feeling Incognito will be staying at center and they'll look to a strong OG market to fill out the interior.

 

The Steelers don’t trade up.

 

You're oversimplifying things IMO. Henne had a bad year last year and showed some pretty big weaknesses in his game. Expecting him to turn it around with "a fresh start" would be a huge mistake and I can promise you the Dolphins will not be banking on that. I'm not saying he can't turn it around, but you have to have a contingency plan in place because at best his chances of becoming a franchise QB are 50/50 and it's probably not even that high. Getting a QB to push Henne is not going to be too expensive because there's no such thing as too expensive when you're talking about fixing the most important position in sports. But even adding a veteran like Marc Bulger or Bruce Gradkowski would be a step in the right direction to at least challenge Henne. I'd be willing to bet quite a bit of money though that not only do they add a veteran in some form, but they also draft one in one of the first 4 rounds.

It's not the ESPN trade chart, it's the NFL trade chart that most teams use as a guideline. It doesn't have to be exact, buy you're over 100 pts off in value. You can say they add a 2nd and 4th, but essentially your moving to the very end of the 1st and that 2nd rounder is practically a 3rd rounder and 4th round picks are a crap shoot. And you can say who wants to move up to 15, but you don't know what will happen. There could be a run on tackles, a guy like Robert Quinn or Bowers could be there, or you never really know. Who thought a team would move up to 12 last year to get Ryan Matthews who at this time last year was a fringe 1st round pick?

There are some deep threats in this draft and why is it that we could use our 1st on a WR, but using a 2nd would be a bad idea? There will be tons of talented backs available in the 3rd and later as this draft is stacked at that position. You just metioned 5. You think all 5 of those guys go in the 2nd round? Hartline is a guy that can get downfield at times, but he's not the vertical WR the Dolphins are missing. Hank is an upgrade to Hartline, but drafting a guy like Hank basically pushes Hartline aside and will greatly reduce his role because they are so similar.

 

I like some of the picks, but truly the decision team is not going to ignore the QB spot. They are absolutely drafted one. It is just a matter of where. I am content with our WR group, so using a first round pick just seems like a misuse of a resource.

 

Sorry, but I don't buy that scenario. I think some of these so called draft experts are projecting that because it sounds good. You know, the Pouncey brothers together on one team? The chances of Pitt drafting Pouncey are 31 to 1. Besides, if we were the team interested in the same player, they would want to trade above us to get the player, not with us. Not to mention it would probably cost their second and third rounder to make that kind of a move. Sorry man, but I just don't see it happening.

 

problem is, they still will not trade up or get rid of the second round pick, the Steelers just don't do that, and its one of the things that helps them stay stocked with players.

Great effort on the mock.

Now Seattle I might see if a QB they want is at 15, but than, we might want that QB also.

 

There are other guards besides Mike Pouncey in this draft. And the Steelers draft according to their board; they’ll go BPA at 31 regardless of their need at OL, which they’ve never seriously addressed over the last, oh, four or so seasons.

I actually see them drafting a defensive player, since defensive players at 31 are likely still BPA. Cameron Heyward, perhaps? Not sure if he makes it there, though.

 

Nice overall effort Fins.

I like how you went with your gut on Hankerson to make sure that rounds 2-4 were affected, even though it meant possibly reaching for him.

If our ground game improves & there's better depth at WR/TE, the coaching improves, we get more short field opportunities, and the defense becomes more consistent & creates more turnovers, I think we can win with Henne b/c he's shown us that, when we ARE playing well, he doesn't really do anything crazy to cost us games. IMO he deserves 1 season after his sophomore slump to prove himself. Plus he's already working on the offense.

IMO rounds 2-4 (if we can get that extra 2nd) are key for us because that's where the COP backs (that Sparano has a man crush for), playmaking #2 TE, pass rush specialists, and a few other positions of value seem to be strong. I'm not sure if you did the same thing I did, but I tried to figure out those rounds first and then work backward to our first pick. If, in your eyes, having the ability to take Carter, Green, Taiwan, and Sands means reaching for your WR in the 1st, then I say go ahead and reach for him.

For me, the bottom line isn't about whether or not you've reached for a player, but rather if you feel that player will impact your team. Mike Williams & Jacoby Ford were 4th rounders last year. I sure as s#!t bet they wouldn't be if the draft could be done over. lol. I feel similarly about Greg Little as you do about Hank.

Ever since CK told me to check out Chris Carter last season, I've been a fan. What's nice is we already have 2 solid OLBs so we can afford the time needed to transition him, and at least he can be a pass rush specialist in the meantime.



I think another option with your draft, if you want a speedy COP back but don't want to use a 2nd, would be to later grab the other player you like, Nic Grigsby (whom I like, too)...... then take Hankerson in the 2nd, leaving the first wide open.

 

Playing Devil's advocate here, ou could argue that Henne's pushing himself harder right now than anyone else could. I agree on the vet; I disagree on a highly drafted rookie.

There's so much diversity at the QB position that IMO we need to see what we have on offense first once it's established this year, and we need to see what Daboll & Sparano do. I'd absolutely HATE IT if we took Locker or Ponder, our staff gets fired, and a new coach comes in who wants a tall, strong-armed pocket passer, and uses a 2012 1st on one b/c Locker and Ponder don't fit his offense. Ditto goes for us taking Mallett and a new coach wanting an athletic, mobile guy who can run a spread offense. Or, get this, maybe Henne has a great year while the rook is learning from the sideline, and Chad never loses his starting job.

Considering all of our uncertainty, not having a 2nd round pick, a massive need to establish a ground game, along with the lockout, I think it would be a wiser move to see how this year plays out and then dump everything into an elite prospect next year (if needed). I think people will be shocked how well Henne will appear to play when our team is playing good ball as a whole, and if they're not, then we don't deserve to be in the playoff hunt anyway. I think we could conceivably solidify our entire offense outside of the QB position this year so that: A. Henne has the best chance to succeed b/c he's IS our QB right now whether some fans like it or not. B. If Henne isn't the answer, then a 2012 rookie will come in with the tools needed to succeed and a surrounding cast that prevents the burden from resting on him (hugely important IMO). C. We can then afford to trade an entire draft to move up if needed since our offense and defense should have very few immediate needs.

I respectfully disagree with this. We're not losing value; we're gaining value. We have little need for many of the positions that would require the value of a mid 1st round pick: #1 WR, #1 CB, elite pass rusher, LT, elite MLB, stud 3-4 NT, stud 3-4 DE. There is a chance that we actually CAN win with Henne if our team is playing well. What we can't win without IMO is some of the accent pieces-- #2 TE, WR depth (or #2 WR), playmaking COP back, an all purpose back, situational pass rusher, LG, solid nickel CB. We need as many from this list as we can get; however, we don't have enough picks to satisfy them all. Fortunately, if we can trade back at least once, that means at least one more of these positions we get to check off. The great thing about it is none of them require a 1st round pick. IMO we should be trading back as many times as we can until the late 2nd round.

If we want to compete next year (which we ALL should covet considering how good our defense is and a few of the pieces we have on offense), then we should be wanting a vet QB to backup Henne who can come in without drowning our season if Henne gets hurt.

I think Hankerson can make plays downfield and will become a better NFL player than college, but I agree that he doesn't quite have the speed we're looking for despite his ability to make some plays downfield.

The only WR I want is Greg Little since there's no DB in football who can outplay him on a jump ball in single coverage (but I'd settle for speedy Jernigan). If he sees the same coverage that Hartline did, Henne can play alley-oop all game long. I couldn't imagine how scary our offense would look with Marshall, Hartline in the slot, Virgil Green (or Jordan Cameron) stretching the field at TE, and Greg Little all by his lonesome on some poor, helpless CB (unless he's Nnamdi, which then I'd shut my mouth. lol)..... with DeAngelo Williams/Taiwan Jones as an outlet option with room to run.

 

Great point, and I'll add that Pouncey is not worth trading a 2nd, 3rd and 4th for.

 

Hells yeah, try playing Cover 2 vs that lineup you beeyatches!!!

 

They traded up for Polamalu back in 03. Moved to 15 or 16 from the 30th pick or something like that.

 

For a difference maker. Pouncey while good would be an addition, not a difference maker

 

Pitt is a great team. IMO they're one of the few who can afford to make a trade like this. There's something nostalgic about seeing pro bowl twin brothers blocking side by side. Fans & Mendenhall would love it, and so would Ben with extra time to get the ball downfield to Wallace. I know they need CB help, but it's worth considering.

 

The statement was that the steelers dont trade up. Well they have from around the position they are in to about the same spot we are in now. We also dont know how they feel about Pouncey. They could feel that he is a difference maker. At the time, people were questioning Polamalu's ability to be a ball hawk in this league when he was drafted, so he wasnt exactly considered a difference maker by the consensus at the time.

 

See Ryan, Matt; Sanchez, Mark; Flacco, Joe; Roethlisburger, Ben; Bradford, Sam; etc. All those guys had success early and it can be argued all but Sanchez "took their teams to the next level" pretty quickly. Drafting a QB does not set your team back 2-3 years. It's admitting you aren't a Super Bowl contender this year and if this team isn't willing to take that approach in their personnel decisions, then this team is in big trouble. You know what will really set the team back? Not having a good QB. It's set the team back over 10 years running. And Henne has not worked in this offense before. It's a new offense that because of the lockout he'll probably be learning at the same time the rookie would. And even if the rookie isn't ready to go just yet, just being there pushing Henne along with a veteran could be enough to help the team overall.

I don't see how you can say taking a QB high is too expensive yet have them taking a luxury pick in Hankerson in the 1st round. Again, I love the guy, but he doesn't bring anything to the Dolphins they don't already have. He's a better version on Hartline. And I'll say it again. It's never too expensive when you're talking about fixing the most important position in sports. You might not necessarily be able to fill every need you have this offseason, but this isn't going to be a quick fix. If you ever want to contend for a Super Bowl though you need a top notch QB, so why not make sure you have one? That way even if Henne pans out you now have a big trade chip like the Eagles have with Kolb.

Maybe there isn't going to be a ton of teams looking to trade up. If not, you keep the pick. You cannot afford to lose value. There will be a very good player there at 15. I'd rather take someone there who will have a better chance at being a very good player then getting more picks late. The later you go the bigger the chances the guy busts are. Look at the Dolphins track record in the 1st round under this regime. Now look at their track record in the second. You could say they're batting 1.000 in the 1st. We don't know for sure about Odrick, but he looked pretty good before getting hurt. In the 2nd though you've got names like Pat White, Phillip Merling, and Chad Henne. It would be nice to recoup a 2nd, but I don't think you can do that if you are sacrificing value.

 

I like Hankerson a lot. He really grew on me as the season/off season progressed. I dont think he would do anything but make us better.



Regarding Greg Little, people will disagree with me, but I'm saying right now that I'll be shocked if Little is around in the 3rd. He's a guy that teams will trade up for, and I believe organizations absolutely fell in love with him at the combine and pro day.

Talent, size, and ability wise, just picture a cross between Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, and Anquan Boldin. He has the most untapped upside of any WR in the draft IMO. Despite his newness to the position, he'll contribute from year 1 because he has so much talent that you can find simple ways to involve him into the offense. If he didn't sit out his senior season, I think he's in discussion for the Chiefs, Ravens, or Bears 1st round pick.

Little is the kind of player for the above reasons (plus his passion, fire, intensity, competitiveness, drive, and work ethic) that I pray we trade back in the first just so that we can take him in the 2nd (and that our organization is wise enough to see his potential here with Marshall and pulls the trigger).

 

To be fair and addressing to his point,

Sanchez didn't "take" the Jets anywhere. He went along for the ride and they won despite his inconsistent, regular season play.

Bradford was one of the worst QBs in the league last year, which is expected of a rookie.

Ryan & Flacco at first were merely average at best QBs on a very talented and solid team that played well as a team. They're still on a solid teams that have won as a team; however, in the playoffs they showed they're still developing and couldn't be relied upon to carry their team when it was needed (like Henne was asked ALL year)...... and this was their 3rd season.

Roethlisberger---- it's a LOT easier on a QB when he has the league's #1 defense and #2 rushing offense helping him (and keeping him from needing to carry the team).

However, in Ben's 3rd year when the ground game dipped off some and the defense ranked outside the top 10 in scoring, his passing stats looked eerily similar to Henne's.

Ben (3rd year starting): 75.4 QB rating, 3500 yards, 18 TDs, 23 INTS. Roethlisberger is lucky he isn't a Dolphin or else he would've never seen his next super bowl. lol. If Henne has no excuse for "under performing" in his 2nd season starting, then I dont see how Ben could have one in his 3rd.

Ben's 5th year: 80 QB rating, 3300 yards, 7.0 avg, 17 TDs, 15 INTs. Add in a few more INTs that weren't dropped, and you have another season just like Henne's 2nd.

 

Yeah when the rest of the team isn't made up of guys who should be driving UPS trucks, you can actually do this.

 

Say what you will about the guy, but he turns into Joe Montana in the last two minutes of games and won a few of there games doing so.

First three quarters Sanchez = Henne
4th Quarters Sanchez > Henne

 

Don't be too quick to pat yourself on the back. It is still the draft process and there is still time before the actual picks. Not saying you won't be right, you may very well be, but I'd wait because there's still misinformation going out.