Football Outsiders Almanac 2013 - Miami Dolphins Chapter - (ALERT: Pessimism)

Jerry was mediocre at best, Richie I's play improve as the season moved along/

Do agree about Vernon, know you are not a fan of his game, I do think he will play at a high level this year assuming he can get on the field of course, DJordan and Misi would appear to be roadblocks

 

If you're simply talking about Miami's roster then there's no need to mention anyone else but I don't see any way to credibly predict win totals for a team without studying the schedule and analyzing who they're likely to win/lose against.

You say we have a problem at OT. OK. But just about every team we play will have a problem at OT b/c we have Cam Wake. You say we'll take a hit in run efficiency, OK. Just about every team we face is gonna take a hit in run efficiency b/c Odrick-Starks-Soliai-Wake cannot be moved. Point is strengths and weaknesses aren't absolute, they change from weak to week depending on who's playing who. It's the matchups that matter, not a generic look at who's good and who's not so good.

If you feel like I'm more sensitive to under-selling it may be because no one is over selling the team IMO. I don't see anyone claiming we'll breeze to the division title or go deep into the playoffs. People are mainly saying we'll win 9-10 games and push for a playoff spot. When I look at the schedule I see a lot of teams that we match up well with on paper. Pretty much all of them except for Atlanta, New England, Cincinnati and Tampa. Obviously you disagree but I'm curious as to which teams you think we do/do not match up with.

 

Not sure how that's more than tangentally related.

 

Nope. He didn't even get that right.

 

Oh, trust me, I'm fully counting on a playoff win this year...may be overly optimistic but damn...I refuse to see the harsher side, never have and never will. It's burned me more than surprised me to the positive, but I don't care. When we went 11-5 after going 1-15, I'd predicted 9 wins and just missing the playoffs. One of those rare times you're glad to be wrong! I don't know...not too worried about Atlanta or Cincinnati. Could we lose both? Sure. Could we win both? Sure. Anything can happen (by the way...I was watching LIVE when Danny and the boys gave the Bears their only loss in the 85 campaign, and when the snow plow caused me to hate New England for life...so I've been through the ups and downs since the early 70s). Please don't take this as a knock on anyone here, but I'm a die hard fan, not an armchair analyst, so I choose the hopeful route. I see the season going like this (as I posted in another post a while back), losses to the Ravens, Steelers, Patriots, Tampa Bay and Indy for an 11-5 showing. In that other post I said we'd be 2nd in the division to the Patsies, but that has since changed, due to obvious reasons. You may call me a crackhead, but its AFC East Title Time!!

 

I find I prefer the pessimism from the media as well. I really want to pick up Miller in my fantasy draft so I cringe every time there's a positive article on him. I really don't see much optimism out there for the team. The highest expectations are in articles where they're questioning whether the Pats are down. It's really more about them than us. Miami is just the only other AFC east team with a realistic playoff chance. IMO articles talking about Miami as a playoff contender aren't optimistic, they're realistic. We were a playoff contender last season through about week 16 and we should be a better team this year. Our most likely record this year is somewhere between 8-8 and 10-6 depending primarily on health and RT's development. That puts us squarely in the playoff hunt. IMO optimism would be any hopes above that.