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Football Outsiders on the Dolphins

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by jinx, Aug 23, 2012.

  1. jinx

    jinx Well-Known Member

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    http://deadspin.com/5936266/32-para...eams-from-the-football-outsiders-almanac-2012
     
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  2. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    If that was the case we would have at least one good WR by now.
     
  3. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Don't those football outsiders know that it was really Parcells, not Ireland who made all those bad picks and FA signings?

    Little Jeffy was just a pawn under the thumb of the Tuna.

    Since Parcells is gone Ireland has been responsible for the sublime draft picks of Daniel Thomas and Clyde Gates.

    You don;t get much better than that
     
  4. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Matt Millen's record with the Lions was 31-81.

    Just for perspective's sake, the Miami Dolphins could go 1-15 for the next two seasons, and Jeff Ireland's win % as GM would still be higher than Matt Millen's.
     
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  5. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Almanac's entry for the Dolphins is astoundingly awful. It's basically like someone who was trolling a Dolphins message board got overzealous and went overboard by several hundred words. He came up with a bombastic central idea and didn't come up with any way to support it. If that article were posted on this message board, it would be in the Soap Box within 15 minutes.

    Basically his idea is that the Dolphins didn't get Peyton Manning or Matt Flynn, so Jeff Ireland is Matt Millen. He doesn't actually try to compare anything like you know, how their drafts or free agents have actually turned out, the respective records of the teams they were responsible for, or anything like that.
     
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  6. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    What does Football Outsiders know anyway?
     
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  7. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I've got questions anytime someone is using a formula on statistics, but they at least do a good job compiling information, and I look at the Almanac all the time for stuff like formation tendencies and the like.

    That summary is pretty much indefensible, however. Negative is fine, stupid is not.
     
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  8. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    They know a lot. But it didn't show in what Tanier wrote. The ironic thing is that their predictions for the Dolphins aren't all that bad.
     
  9. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I've bought the Prospectus/Almanac every year and really love reading it. I haven't gotten around to ordering it. What do they predict our record to be?
     
  10. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    2012 Mean Projection: 6.9 wins
    On the Clock (0-4): 14%
    Mediocrity (5-7): 47%
    Playoff Contender (8-10): 33%
    Super Bowl Contender (11+): 5%

    Also prudent to point out that they claim their projection models show the highest amount of variance for the Dolphins.
     
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  11. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks!
     
  12. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That sounds about right to me.
     
  13. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well, that paragraph was about the most pointless thing I've read all day... and I'm at work... where I read some really ridiculous emails from customers all day :lol:
     
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  14. Muck

    Muck Throwback Uniform Crusader Retired Administrator

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    They seemed pretty decisive at QB this year.

    They went hard after Manning. They entertained Flynn but ultimately made the right decision. They signed David Garrard (who was leading the competition) and drafted Tannehill, who's now starting. And they're pretty good with Matt Moore, who like Garrard was met with skepticism when signed but ultimately was a good call, in the backup seat.

    The gadget offense wasn't dictated by Ireland. That was the Sparano staff.

    To say Jeff's content with losing, give me a break. You can call the man incompetent, that's actually up for discussion. But content? Please.

    The bigger issue IMO is simply that of talent. His drafts haven't produced enough 'hits'. And they'd not found 'the' QB the last three years.
     
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  15. PhiNomina

    PhiNomina White-Collar Redneck

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    Yeah attributing an offensive set to the GM - specifically one not even implemented until the 4th game of that year - seems like a stretch. If they want to say that after it was implemented he fell in the trap of drafting for it (Pat White), then I'll listen - but saying he designed the Wild Cat is like blaming him for not throwing a challenge flag.
     
  16. HULKFish

    HULKFish Artist and Scribe

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    Not to sound cheesy here, but for all the logic in the world, and computations that one may formulate, you can't formulate heart, and desire. Most seasons there are teams that rise to the occassion! And why can they not be predicted??? Because the will of man only needs the right stimulation and focus to determine his success. I see no reason this 2012 Dolphins team should just fold under the media circus of scrutiny... and that is why we play the games!

    GO DOLPHINS!
     
  17. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I don't think even the most ardent Ireland supporter believes he is a top 5 GM in the league, but just look around at the some of the others and there are several who are far worse that we could have. Rod Graves comes to mind. He of the let's trade a good young corner and a 2nd rounder for Philly's backup QB and then let's obscenely overpay him on top of it.
     
  18. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I agree that Matt Millen was probably the worst GM in the NFL over the last fifty years. Ireland on the other hand is only in the bottom 20 of all GM's over this time period. Whether or not Ireland is as bad a GM as Millen is totally irrelevant. The fact is that he has shown during his time with the Dolphins that he has no idea how to build a winning football team. After this season, Ross will hopefully hire a GM who does know how to draft players who will bring a winning team back to the fans of the Dolphins.
     
  19. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Can you post your GM rankings?
     
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  20. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    The problem I have is that people continually defend Ireland by pointing out that there are other GM's who are just as bad, which is a horrible way to justify anything. Just because other GM's, like Rod Graves, also suck at their job doesn't mean it's OK for Ireland to suck at his.
     
  21. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    No, its just differentiating between a GM who "sucks", is "average", is "above average", is "great", etc.

    Personally, I think Ireland has been average to slightly-above average. If you can tell me he could be replaced with someone who is guaranteed to be better than him, I'm all for it. But I don't believe the odds of finding a better GM are higher than Ireland taking the jump from an average to a very-good GM.
     
  22. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    Ireland was hired as the teams GM five years ago and the Dolphins have had a record of 31-33 during this period. This includes the first season when they had 11 wins. The team has regressed each season since 2008. Exactly in what universe does this equate to Ireland being an average GM, much less a very good GM?

    As far as the Dolphins hiring a GM who can do a better job than Ireland. Since the Dolphins finished in the bottom third of the NFL last season, it appears that at least two thirds of the owners in the NFL have been able to hire better GM's than Ross has. Ross is the owner and it is his responsibility to find and hire a GM who actually knows how to build a winning football team.
     
  23. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    IMO, Ireland is somewhere between 10 and 20 among the 32 GMs. If there is someone available who is a certain upgrade then I'm for it. But I've not seen any such names brought up by the anti-Ireland contingent. It seems to be an anybody else would be better mindset.
     
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  24. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Well no, because Jeff Ireland could easily go sign a guy like Mario Williams or Vincent Jackson, or plenty of other overpaid players and ensure that the team wins more games in 2012. The issue is that it would mortgage the team's health in the future.
     
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  25. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    Since the Dolphins had very little cap money going into this past off season, they were not in a position to sign either Williams or Jackson. So your argument holds no validity. As far as I am concerned, as long as Ireland is the teams GM, this team has no future, except continued mediocrity.
     
  26. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    You can very easily create more cap room by renegotiating contracts.

    Either way, what isn't currently in their future is guaranteed money to overpaid players.
     
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  27. jinx

    jinx Well-Known Member

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    This isn't baseball. General managers don't jump from team to team. The Dolphins aren't going to hire Ted Thompson or Ozzie Newsome. It's kind of impossible to say someone like Russ Ball would be an upgrade because we don't know if he would be. Using that logic you're pretty much resigned to keeping Ireland forever because how do we know random personnel guy will be an upgrade on Ireland. Answer is we don't. That doesn't mean Ireland shouldn't be replaced by that person.
     
  28. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Who said they did?
     
  29. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I see your problem with those of us who want to replace Ireland, so I will be happy to give you a list of individuals I would be happy to see Ross interview to replace Ireland.

    1) Russ Ball- presently with the Packers

    2) Reggie McKenzie- Packers

    3) Eric Decosta- Ravens

    4) Pat Moriarity- Ravens

    5) Marc Ross- Giants

    6) Tom Gamble- 49er's

    7) Nick Caserio- Patriots

    8) Ruston Webster- Titans

    Everyone of these men have been instrumental in the player personnel decisions for their respective teams and I feel any of them would be an upgrade over Ireland. Hopefully this will at least show you that I am looking for a viable option for Ireland, not just for firing Ireland and replacing him with just anybody.
     
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  30. jinx

    jinx Well-Known Member

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    You're kind of implying it. Ted Thompson would be a certain upgrade. Ozzie Newsome would be a certain upgrade. But how in the world could anyone possibly know which random personnel person in the league would be a certain upgrade? Did Irsay know that Ryan Grigson was a certain upgrade when he fired the Polians?
     
  31. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    The Dolphins have been overpaying free agents since Parcells and Ireland came here five years ago. The only free agent they signed during this entire period which they didn't overpay was Cameron Wake.

    My major problem with Ireland has to do with his drafting. He does okay in the first round, but the rest of the players he has drafted have been below average at best. That is why the Dolphins have been in the bottom tier of teams for the past three seasons.
     
  32. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Thanks for taking the time to make a list of specific people. Two would have to removed though. Reggie McKenzie is now GM for Oakland and Webster is GM too, so those would be lateral moves. Ross, Caserio and definitely DeCosta would be interesting possibilities.
     
  33. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Ok, I guess I should have said likely upgrade. I'm not stupid enough to think we can just go and hire an employed NFL GM away from their current team. See the list that jw3102 made? That was all I was asking for. He has some ideas of guys he'd like to see. Rather than just taking the anybody has to be better than Ireland approach.
     
  34. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    Sorry about including McKenzie and Webster. I had made this list several months ago and when you stated you would like a list of names from those of us who would like to see Ireland replaced, I went to the list which is still on my computer. I completely forgot that McKenzie and Webster had been hired as GM's after the 2011 season. Thanks for updating me.
     
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  35. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Conversely, you could say Ireland was instrumental in the personnel decisions for his respective team before he was hired by Miami (Dallas had 13 Pro Bowlers in 2007).
     
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  36. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    I'd say between 25 and 32. Ross could've let a monkey run the draft it still wouldn't have waited until the 6th round to take a WR.
     
  37. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Ireland was hired after the Dolphins went 1-15 the previous season and 20-44 over the previous 4 seasons. They have gone 31-33 since then, which is a substantial improvement. They have done that despite losing their starting QB just a few games into the season in 2 of the last 4 seasons. I suppose we could all pretend that losing your starting QB in week 3 should not affect the team's record, but we would all know that is absurd.
     
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  38. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I am sure you know what Einstein said , so how long would you keep Ireland if he continues his pattern consistently missing the playoffs and being a below average team?
     
  39. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Let's say there's a bakery.

    The guy in charge (GIC) of the kitchen brings a baker and purchaser.

    The GIC tells the purchaser, you are in charge of getting all the ingredients I need. He has complete control in what they pay and where they go to get the ingredients. The GIC then hands the purchaser the ingredients he wants and they include things like rat kidneys and goat ****. The purchaser goes out and finds the absolute best rat kidneys & goat **** available. The ingredients are given to the baker and he following the recipe from the GIC, bakes a rat kidney & goat **** cake. It tastes horrible.

    Now, I know we're conditioned to blame the entire chain of people involved, but in reality....the recipe was crap. That recipe belongs to the GIC and being in charge he forced the purchaser and the baker to follow his bad recipe. The purchaser and the baker still had relative autonomy, they made many decisions on their own based on their expertise, but they still were handcuffed to a ****ty recipe.
     
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  40. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    First of all the Dolphins were extremely lucky to get Chad Pennington at the last minute in 2008, when the Jets decided to go with Farve and they cut Pennington. Pennington had previously been drafted when Parcells was the HC of the Jets, and I am sure he was the person responsible for convincing Pennington to come to the Dolphins. Even stating that, Ireland was the GM at the time, so I will give him credit for improving the roster from 2007 to 2008.

    As far as losing their starting QB is concerned. Pennington had a history of injuries and the Dolphins had drafted Henne to be the long term answer at the QB position. So who is to blame for the terrible pick of Henne in the first place?

    You stated that the team lost their starting QB in two of the four seasons Ireland has been here. Perhaps you need to look at the Dolphins record at the time Henne was injured last season to understand that losing Henne did not negatively affect the record of this team one bit. In fact it was probably the best thing that could have happened to the Dolphins. Since they went on to win 6 of their last 9 games. This was after starting out 0-7 with Henne as the starting QB.

    Since going 11-5 in 2008. The Dolphins have gone 20-28 over the last three seasons. Last year was their worst record since they went 1-15 in 2007. So exactly what Ireland has done to rebuild this team into a legitimate playoff contender is certainly beyond me.
     

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