I really love the insight provided by footballoutsiders.com. Here's a conversation about the Phins: http://www.thephinsider.com/2010/8/8/1611702/talking-dolphins-with-the-football
Hey GH, there is a link on that website in the right hand corner pretty far down that say's "training camp video", by "special agent wildcat'... Its 6 or 7 home video's that are awesome, they have practice video that I haven't seen on the board..Really cool inside stuff.... I cant figure out how to post the link but its worth its own thread.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek_nxYxihpQ&feature=related"]YouTube- Dolphins Training Camp highlights 8-2-10‎[/ame] [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYtX3lxhQxc&feature=related"]YouTube- Miami dolphins 2010 training camp drills (Brandon ,Ricky, and Ronnie on field)‎[/ame] [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2d5g4VMhdoY&feature=related"]YouTube- Camp Dolphins 2010 - Brandon Marshall Day 3 Part 1‎[/ame]
To be honest, this kinda crosses a line IMO. We shouldn't be filming 11-on-11's and putting it out there on the web. Team most certainly frowns on it. You think about why teams are so vanilla in preseason.... There's a reason you don't see it on the board.
I like how absolutely no one is talking about Aaron Schatz predicting us to basically go 7-9 again. Beyond that prediction, it looks like he's very dismissive of our defense. To an extent, that's understandable: the 2009 Dolphins didn't exactly field the second coming of the No-Name Defense. But Schatz and his stats put quite a bit of weight on what happened last year, without really allowing for variance: he says that because a team did X last year, they'll do X plus or minus the next year. Not a big fan of that methodology. There's such little carryover from team to team and year to year. Rosters change, schemes change, coaches change, the players themselves change.
Aaron Schatz. You know, the guy who created and runs Football Outsiders and just happens to be the person being interviewed in the OP.
To be fair, he said he thinks we're a 9-7 team who wouldn't be surprised if we were 7-9. I think 9-7 is a fair prediction if you're not sold on Henne becoming better than a solid game-manager. As for our defense, there is a lot of upside, but there's a lot of "if's" on the defensive side of the ball. Can Cam Wake bring it every game? Can Sean Smith and Vontae play better than last year? Can anyone play safety? Can a LB cover any TEs?
He's predicting a range of 7-9 through 9-7, and from the sound of it he's not sold on the defense. He's right to be skeptical of the defense, but I'm not sure how he thinks we're only at most two games better than last season. The improvements and additions we've made suggest a very solid team, assuming they pan out. "Game manager" really shouldn't be a bad phrase. Chad Pennington game managed us to the playoffs.
First off, thank you Garden for the post. But I gotta say it really bothers me when someone trys to tell me what type of Quarterback Henne will be. Whos to say what he will or will not become. "Experts" really piss me off sometimes...
In the Football Outsiders Almanac the book gives Miami a 22% chance of winning 7-8 games, a 41% chance of winning 9-10 games and a 26% chance of winning 11+. Sounds like they like Miami's chances of being a good team this season. That's a 67% chance of winning at least 9 games.
What else do you expect the football writers to do? Prognostication is part of their job. It makes debates interesting, not bothersome. I disagree with you on this one.
Disagree on them pissing me off? I didnt say they shouldnt exist. Edit: Forgot to answer your question. I appreciate the inside info, detailed stats, interviews, breaking news, and any other facts they can bring me. But when I hear predictions from someone about Henne, unless hes psychic, I couldnt care less. No offense to you or your post.
The problem isn't whether or not they forecast us to have a winning record, the problem is that they're basically saying the additions and changes we've made are good for about two more wins. I don't know about you, but with the defensive makeover we've undergone, Chad Henne having a full offseason and training camp as the incumbent starter, the addition of Brandon Marshall, and all the money we've spent, 9-7 would be a disappointment. Also, wasn't this forum up in arms when the Jets made the AFC Championship Game with a 9-7 record? I don't think 9-7 would be good enough for anyone else either.
I agree with McDuffie. Upon reading it a second time, his rhetoric is rather "dickish". I mean when the questions are longer than the answers it gives you the impression that the guy is really not into being interviewed. What a dick! This was such an obvious dumb a$$ answer they even included the word "uh" to preface it. Again, the funny part is that the question was twice as long as the answer. If I could imagine the answer to contain another sentence it would be "Now go run back to your little blog and don't trifle me." BTW-the guy's name is Aaron Shatz (so fitting) as in "I just shat on your interview".
Personally, looking over our schedule and being realistic without making a Christmas list, I think we are a 10-6 team this year. I would be happy with a 9-7 year though, but i think we can really pull 10. We have the talent for sure, it all depends on how all the pieces work together! Anyway just my honest belief!
Our schedule isn't all that bad. We probably lead the league in the amount of paper tiger teams we have to face, like the Packers, Bengals, Titans, and the Vikings and Ravens to a lesser extent. Then there are the bad teams, the Lions, Raiders, Browns, and Bears. The Bears and Raiders are the least bad of those teams, especially factoring in improved QB play, but still bad. That's potentially nine wins right there. Then you consider that the Fins under Sparano have gone 4-2 against division rivals in both 2008 and 2009, and there's another four wins. Though, for the sake of balance, let's say 3-3 this year. This schedule doesn't scare me.
To be more specific, I disagree with the bolded bit. By that measure, who's to say what our 2010 record is gonna be? Prognostication is fun. These guys use advanced metrics to try to predict a QB's future performance, unlike most experts who rely on a player's "swagger" or "it factor".
Thats fine. I appreciate the post. Record predicting is fun i'll agree. Had Sparano, Parcells, Ireland, David Lee, or any of his former Highschool/College coaches had somthing to say about his NFL Quarterback ceiling, id be more inclined to listen is all. I guess I just find the whole thing silly. "Experts" who are in no way involved in his career making bold predictions that people put stock into. Now a group of friends on a message board? Thats another story.
In the Almanac they do a nice job in the Miami chapter talking about Vontae and Smith. They use similarity scores (which they admit aren't perfect but are still interesting) to see who they compared to as rookies. Vontae definitely comes out on top with studs like Will Allen, Chris McAlister, and Leon Hall along with some crappier guys while Smith's season is most common with nickel back type guys. Obviously this isn't an exact science but it does lend evidence to the more common belief that Vontae is the more likely of the two to become a stud.
I wasnt big on what he had to say....honestly. But...you have some saying great things about the Phins this year...and others that dont. What ever...itll all play out soon enough. And yeh....9-7 would be a disappointment. This team is better than that IMO.
everybody has a horse in the NFL race objectivity amongst the plebes is rare having said that the fact that they do begrudgingly respect the teams potential is enough for me to foster Miami hopes in the upcoming season personally whatever improvements have been made will be built upon a solid base of brutality & determination should be a great season where anything is possible